Roger Federer is bidding for his seventh year-end championship title; Dominic Thiem is hoping to qualify for the semifinals for the first time ever. One of those efforts will get off to a positive start on Sunday night, while the other will be put in an early hole.
Federer and Thiem will be facing each other for the seventh time in their careers when they meet again on day one of the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals. Thiem holds a surprising 4-2 lead in the head-to-head series, including 2-0 this season. The Austrian prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 in the Indian Wells final and 3-6, 7-6(11), 6-4 in the Madrid quarters. Federer, however, is 2-1 against Thiem on hard courts and dominated their only previous London encounter 6-2, 6-3 during round-robin action last fall.
The 38-year-old Swiss has not lifted this trophy since 2011, but that will not improve Thiem’s confidence–or lack thereof. Federer has reached the final three times since then and boasts a 30-10 lifetime record inside the O2 Arena. He is poised for additional success with an 8-1 record since the U.S. Open that includes a 10th Basel title.
Thiem will always be at his best on clay, but he is new and improved on hard courts this year. In addition to his Indian Wells triumph, the world No. 5 lifted trophies in Beijing and Vienna to turn in what has been by far the best fall swing of his career. He also reached the Shanghai quarterfinals, having never advanced past the second round in four previous trips to that tournament. As such, Thiem cannot be discounted from being in the mix for a semifinal berth even though he finds himself in a rough group with Federer and Novak Djokovic.
“It’s always a big honor and it’s a big personal goal at the beginning of every season to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals,” the 26-year-old commented. “In the last three years, I’ve always managed to win one match, which was great, but I want more this year and would love to qualify for the semifinals.”
If he does, don’t count on it coming at Federer’s expense. On this surface, Federer will serve too well and play too aggressive for Thiem to get into a rhythm from the back on the court. It should not be as big of a blowout as what transpired in 2018, but the world No. 3 has to like his chances.
Pick: Federer in 2
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WWW?
Did not see the match. Gosh, I don’t enjoy a champion like Federer losing a first round in the year end Finals. I do however congratulate and feel happy for Thiem.
Thiem was better .hit the corners .power hitting
Thanks, Sanju. I will try to hunt down the replay. I do love watching Thiem when he’s hitting his one-hander with power and confidence and serving well.
Saw the ATP highlights. It was an okay performance from Fed. Respectable effort, considering his competition. Thiem was just too good. And now I am nervous that Nole will lose to Thiem when they play. Nole will need to be even more sharp as he was v Berrettini. Thiem is looking very dangerous indeed.
Hate it when my grammar sucks!!
Nole will need to be even sharper than he was v Berrettini. Maybe I should try that Grammarly app.
Fed did not play badly – not up to his best ofc – but Thiem really took it to him. Amazing improvement this year.
Nole won’t lose to thiem but it can go to 3. If thiem beats berretini in straights then i think fed is out unless fed beats Novak n berretini both. This group may have all 3 with 2 wins each which will make it tricky
Thiem was so good. One of the best performance on hard for him. Good bh, very good fh and much less unforced errors than usual. I hope he can sustain this level, which may bring him a few slams.
To qualify, Fed needs to win 2 matches. I see that happening. I give it 45%.
Don’t see Fed beating Djoko given where their current levels are. I think probability of Fed making it now is very very low
I’m struggling to see how he can make it now. Anything’s possible, but he’d need to turn it around against Djokovic, which does not look likely.
The thing with Fed these days is that he’s just not so consistent. He can still play at a very high level (e.g. Wimbledon), but not regularly, and he’ll need frequent breaks. After a break he’ll usually be a bit rusty, and therefore beatable.
Nole vs Thiem in the final?
Both Theim and Fed have Germanic heritage. Psychologically, Theim just doesnt let Fed beat him anymore given Theim is in his prime and Fed is almost 15 years past his.
This is deja-vu with Federer skipping Paris and losing his first RR match – the same happened last year when he lost a low quality match to Nishikori. That did not prevent him from still qualifying – and I think he can do just that by beating Djokovic then Berrettini. Yes, this is Novak’s best surface, but the the match is really in Roger’s hands as he’s the offensive player and the better one all things considered.
It will be real fun if djoko loses to Thiem and then the djoko fed match ends up being a penalty shootout to reach semi ..I hope that happens
Day 1 podcast wrapup – https://soundcloud.com/britwatch/tt-atpf2019-day-1-wrap
Federer has won this title before after losing 1 RR match so he’s not out of it yet. I see Thiem has been firmly put in the clay pigeon hole like Rafa. Yes, so far, he has done better on clay than other surfaces but that doesn’t mean he can’t do well on other surfaces.
Theim is improving on hard courts and believe he turned the corner at IW earlier this year. The transition from clay to hard is much easier than hard to clay during one’s career.