Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Sinner

Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner will be going head-to-head at the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday.

Nobody will be shocked if this isn’t the last time they face each other in 2023.

Djokovic and Sinner are set for a Green Group round-robin showdown, and based on each man’s current form it is without question a potential preview of Sunday’s championship match. They are hands down the two hottest players on tour; Djokovic has not lost a single match since Wimbledon, while Sinner is 14-1 since the U.S. Open.

Although Djokovic is an obvious favorite as the No. 1 player in the world and a six-time winner of the Nitto ATP Finals, this is a great opportunity for Sinner. The 22-year-old Italian has soared to No. 4 in the world and he is wrapping up his 2023 campaign with home-court advantage in front of his Italian fans. Sinner treated them to a perfect start on Sunday, when he improved his season record to 58-14 with a 6-4, 6-4 beatdown of Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Jannik Sinner Indian Wells


Sinner heads into Tuesday’s contest winless in three previous tries against Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion prevailed 6-4, 6-2 at the 2021 Monte-Carlo Masters, in five sets–and from two sets down–at Wimbledon in 2022, and via a 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4) decision in the 2023 Wimbledon semifinals.

Nonetheless, the underdog will not be deterred. He was competitive in each of the two All-England Club encounters (especially the first one) and now he is playing the best tennis of his career. Moreover, Djokovic needed three hours and four minutes to outlast Holger Rune 7-6(4), 6-7(1), 6-3 on Sunday night whereas Sinner eased past Tsitsipas in one hour and 25 minutes. Finally, Djokovic generally plays his best in must-win situations. This is an important match, but even the loser will still have a good chance to qualify for the semifinals. It should be noted that Djokovic is 15-0 in his last 15 opening matches at the Nitto ATP Finals; he is just 8-7 in his 15 second round-robin matches.

This sets up extremely well for Sinner, so don’t be surprised if an upset is in the cards.

Pick: Sinner in 3

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20 Comments on Nitto ATP Finals round-robin preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Sinner

  1. This ATP Finals doesn’t setup well for Djokovic. He has in-form Sinner in his group and players that are capable of beating him one they find their form in the other group.

    I’ll call it now.

  2. Last year he had an in-form Tsitipas that couldn’t get it done and a luke warm Medvedev. This is the most competitive ATP Finals in years.

  3. I’m gonna go out on a limb and say don’t sleep on Tsitsipas at the end of the year. I forget when it was when they had that Next Gen Finals, where they tested the court with a single box lines. Sure, Zverev and Thiem stole the spotlight, but if I remember correctly Tsitsipas was on fire, I don’t remember if he beat Rublev or what, but I do recall him being so good I became a fan of his. Maybe it was against Borna Coric, but it was a good match.

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