We came close to seeing the first all-Big 3 Nitto ATP Finals match for the first time since 2015. Instead, for the third time in the last four years it will be a Big-3-free conclusion to the tennis calendar.
Following respective semifinal thrillers against Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev will battle for the year-end championship trophy on Sunday evening. It is a second consecutive London final for Thiem, who lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in a third-set tiebreaker last fall.
Those kinds of three-set epics have been the norm for this event over the past two seasons. Thiem has now defeated Djokovic in third-set ‘breakers in each of the last two installments of this prestigious event after outlasting the world No. 1 7-5, 6-7(10), 7-6(5) on Saturday. The world No. 3 squandered four match points in the second set before recovering from a 4-0 deficit in the third-set tiebreaker. Thiem’s impressive week also includes an incredible 7-6(7), 7-6(4) win over Nadal, a three-set defeat of Tsitsipas, and a meaningless loss to Andrey Rublev.
Medvedev went 3-0 in round-robin competition (d. Alexander Zverev, Djokovic, and Diego Schwartzman) but appeared to be down and out against Nadal in the semis. The Spaniard served for the match at 5-4 in the second set only to see Medvedev storm back for a 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 victory. Coming off a title at the Paris Masters, the world No. 4 has now won nine matches in a row.
He has lost three out of four lifetime against Thiem, however. They most recently faced each other in the U.S. Open semifinals, when the Austrian got the job done 6-2, 7-6(7), 7-6(5) on the eventual way to his first Grand Slam title.
“I think it’s super for tennis,” Medvedev said of a final against Thiem. “We are starting to [make] our marks. Dominic won his first slam. (He’s) playing unbelievable tennis right now. (It’s) not gonna be easy. Hopefully I can play good like [today]…. It’s great that we managed to beat the two most biggest players in the history of sport–except Roger is also there.”
Saturday’s semis could not have been any more tense and something similar should be in store for this one.
“Especially in this tournament and in the deep stages of the slams, it’s like the one who has the better or luckier day ends up winning, and it was today the same,” Thiem assessed.
Medvedev’s luck came on a forehand shank winner at 4-3 in the second-set tiebreaker against Nadal. But he may not need any on Sunday. Although he almost lost in the semis, the 24-year-old has been the best player from start to finish this week. His run includes a 6-3, 6-3 destruction of Djokovic and some incredible mental strength to come back against Nadal. In the pressure moments, Medvedev is looking the most solid in terms of both his game and his composure.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
WWW?
Thien in three
It will be a very close battle, but I think Thiem will get this one based on his form. Medvedev was almost on the brink of losing in the semi-final. His luck prevailed in the 2nd set tie-break. I still believe whoever beats Nadal will lose in the following match. The bet is delicious. Bet on Thiem to win and hedge it with Med 2-1. The difference is a good profit.
They both were on the brink of losing their semi matches, but the difference was Djokovic was actually the better player in the third set, and Thiem prevailed with luck, while Medvedev was the better player for most of the match despite almost going out in 2.
Rafa was better till 54 ..no doubt ..he played great to get 2 breaks back in second..from then on he was a disaster
You forgot that Djokovic was on the brink of losing in the 2nd set tie-break too. Thiem played extremely well in the first and second set (or most of the match too) except he had no luck in the 2nd set tie-break and the luck came back in the 3rd set tie-break. In fact, Nadal played better in most of the match but he couldn’t hold his serves, not Medvedev. Medvedev luck was veryu good.
Thiem leads 3-1 in their H2H rivalry but Medvedev’s flatter shots are better suited for the surface. Does it even matter who wins here. Just happy it’s not Djokovic v/s Nadal …… https://www.138mph.com/its-thiem-medvedev-and-not-djokovic-nadal-in-the-final/
Med in 2 or 3. Been the better player so far.
Thiem has broken serve only 4 times this tournament. Med has broken 11 times.
I don’t really care who will win, either one I think deserves the win. Both of them capitalized on the “old army” being rather tired and losing focus. If not for that, we could have seen Nole vs. Rafa final.,.I think both of them were better players in their respective matches, yet ended up losing… fortuna was there for the youngsters…
I tend to agree with Ricky and expect to see the Russian win the finals…he did not lose a match in this WTF and I think was a better player all together..
Both semis featured awesome tennis….Med in 3 .
Right now I don’t like Dom (no known reason why) Never disliked him before.
So I must be for Medvedev but I am comfortably numb toward the players about it.
I feel sorry for Medvedev missing that overhead smash so horribly.
Gotta turn the sound off. BG can’t stop raving and blabbering. If only he would shut up on his own. At least cut it in half, the blabbering, that is.
Medveedee!!!! whoopiee
crazy stunner in the second set TB
Bravo Medvedev! Well deserved win! Great match!
And BRAVO Ricky for great predictions! 👏
Thiem was unbeatable for 2 sets but somehow Medvedev hung in there and got it done, again. Thiem raises his game big time but it’s that little bit of inconsistency in his game that rates him lower than what it could or should be. That’s why you have to be careful with Thiem because the data and odds are not always a true reflection of his chances.
Kudos to Ricky and crew also., don’t think I’ve seen anything like it for a full event predicting nearly every winner with correct sets and even the results of the dead rubbers. WD!
Thiem probably was a bit tired after his long semi ..plus the indoor surface suits Meddy slightly more … small margins.
Great match and great win for Medvedev! I feel like Thiem is just about at his peak right now. Maybe he can get more consistent, but his game is so big that it’s not realistic to expect it to be firing on all cylinders all of the time. He was just about unbeatable for nearly two sets today but he just came down a notch and that was enough.
Medvedev OTOH is only going to get better the next few years, as long as he can avoid injury. He’s such a smart and consistent player already, but his only real weapon right now is his serve. I expect him to get more comfortable with an attacking style of play and to improve on his net game. He’s not a natural in the way that Thiem or Nadal is; to me his strokes resemble those of a club player more than one of the best players in the world. But right now he’s looking to me like he could soon be a world #1 for quite some time.
I doubt he will. Surely a top3 player, but he’s not good enough on clay and grass to become #1. You can’t be #1 if you are that good only on 1/3 surfaces. Unless he improves there (on clay and grass), I really doubt he’ll become a #1 for quite some time, even if he will win multiple slams on hard.