The Mutua Madrid Open draw ceremony took place on Friday afternoon and four-time champion Rafael Nadal landed in an intriguing section. Nadal will kick off his campaign against either familiar foe Fabio Fognini or good friend Joao Sousa before potential meetings with Nick Kyrgios and Milos Raonic prior to the semifinals.
Madrid has never been the Spaniard’s absolute favorite event. That can be chalked up to the fact that it was played on indoor hard courts instead of clay prior to 2009, on blue clay in 2012, and always at relatively high altitude to make for faster conditions. Nadal (2014), Andy Murray (2015), and Novak Djokovic (2016) have split the last three titles.
An especially watchful eye will be Djokovic’s title defense after he parted ways with his entire team–including coach Marian Vajda–on Friday. The second-ranked Serb is in a quarter of the bracket–one next to Nadal’s–along with Kei Nishikori, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, and Monte-Carlo runner-up Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
Just 7-4 in his last four tournaments, Djokovic is not alone among struggling players at the top of the sport. Nishikori, Tsonga, and Monfils are all slumping due to either physical problems or general inactivity. So, too, is world No. 1 Andy Murray. The Scot, who is coming off a Barcelona semifinal loss to Dominic Thiem, finds himself in section of the Madrid draw with Thiem, Grigor Dimitrov, Lucas Pouille, Roberto Bautsita Agut, and Richard Gasquet.
Also is less than outstanding form at the moment, No. 3 seed Stan Wawrinka may have to open against a red-hot Pablo Carreno Busta.
Full draw:
full draw for the @MutuaMadridOpen pic.twitter.com/Rh5yp2lKon
— The Grandstand (@TennGrand) May 5, 2017
[polldaddy poll=9740259]
who ya got?
Nadal only losing a set to Murray in the final
Nah, Murray not going to reach the final. He’ll lose to Thiem again, or even to Pouille. I think in that half of the draw the SF may be between Stan and Thiem, I hope that happens, I want to see how Thiem fared against Stan.
Don’t think anyone can stop Nadal
agreed
Kyrgios man. He plays for these matches I’m telling you. Now raf is a pretty reasonable pick for that match too lol? But I have a hunch about Kyrgios this week. I have a feeling he’s gonna storm through to the title with some extra motivation following the death of his grandfather.
And by storm I don’t actually mean like rip through. It won’t be easy but I think he can do it. I think the Rafa/Kyrgios winner has a great shot at the title. Those two are really the most in form players at this tournament. In my opinion Roger and Rafa and Nick are the three best players formwise at the moment.
Benny, Kygrios hasn’t done anything on clay this year and you expect him to storm through the draw?? He’s having hip issue during the Baggy match. Against a sluggish Baggy, he still couldn’t put Baggy away easily, having to go to a TB in the first set, you expect him to create a storm in Madrid?
Thiem, is another in form player, so are PCB, Cilic, Goffin, Pouille.
Kygrios only managed 855 points from five events, not unlike Murray, how’s he the in form player just after Fed and Rafa??
At Indian wells he only lost to Fed. He is playing fantastic tennis right now and seems motivated. That’s all I’m saying.
Benny, you said he’s the form player after Fed and Rafa which I don’t agree. Like I said there are others also in good form, I don’t see Kyrgios’ form any better than theirs now, more so when it’s on clay. You’re just so carried away by Kyrgios on the HCs, Kyrgios hasn’t done anything yet on clay so we just have to wait and see.
…and Almagro stands in Djoko’s way. 🙂
A loss to Nico for the Djoker wouldn’t even surprise me right now. Djoker is in danger in all of his matches here honestly.
That’s the conventional wisdom, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Nole win the tournament. I don’t think he’s injured, and even if his form isn’t his best, he is Djokovic. I think he could snap out of his funk at any time, really.
Really??
No, I don’t think Novak is going to snap out of it at any time. He’s already been in this funk for a while. Getting rid of his entire te smacks of desperation to me.
This kind of burnout, where a player loses his edge, his mojo, the competitive fire, it’s not something that can be easily dealt with or he would be out of it already.
Novak may have his moments and may still produce some quality tennis, but he does not have the mental strength now to do it consistently.
I expect that he will continue to struggle.
Getting rid of his entire team. *
Exactly NNY.
I’ve watched Djoko’s matches all along. He’s now not as sharp, not as fit and hence not as precise with his shots. All these years, he had worked so hard to be where he is/was and had built an aura of ‘invincibility’ around him, so much so that even when he’s not playing that well and was engaged in a tussle or some, he still would come out of them unhurt, when many times his opponents were crumbling or choking.
He had his narrow escapes even recently at MC – vs Simon and PCB – and only lost to Goffin in three tight sets(Goffin was one of those who choked against Djoko, fortunate for Goffin he didn’t choke this time!). Istomin didn’t choke either. I would expect Djoko to beat them when he’s not in a slump.
Since losing his ‘invincibility ‘ he has become more beatable, and that’s not good for his confidence. I do think he has some physical plus personal issues, hence not being putting in the effort (so Becker wasn’t happy about Djoko not putting in the hard work).
I think if the fear factor is gone, it’ll be more difficult for Djoko to win those tight matches (it’s like Rafa of 2015 and 2016) and it’ll take time for Djoko to rebuild that aura. Of course he’s still not easy to beat, given that his game, like Fedal’s, was already at such a level with not much weaknesses; it’s a matter of execution and regaining the consistency (of maintaining a high level throughout a match and match after match).
Why is Kei playing? I thought he has some wrist issues? Isn’t he taking some risk playing so soon?
Djoko has Simon and ARV as his main obstacles before the SF I feel. The rest of his quarter, I think no one can really trouble him.
he wont last long
I am not sure who has the toughest quarter but I am sure who has the easiest. Nole!
yep. still won’t make the semis probably.
I’m liking Ricky’s optimism 🙂
As Madrid is fast, Kyrgios and Raonic would have an advantage.
Raonic not playing too well at Istanbul; I doubt he can suddenly play well at Madrid.
Kyrgios doesn’t even play a single match on clay yet, I doubt he can become formidable on clay so soon.
Madrid better conditions for Raonic
and good for Kyrgios, too
Well, it’s not only the serves that win you matches on clay. The returner has more chances on clay than say on the HCs. Also, good movement on clay is important, I doubt Raonic or Kyrgios are as quick as Rafa on clay.
Nny!…don’t forget to fill your Bracket okay?Good luck to u!!woohohoho!!
MA,
You are my reminder! I was debating whether to join the bracket. I am really not sure how it’s all going to play out.
I am not sure how far Rafa will go here. He doesn’t have to win this one, but it’s about gaining points. I would love to see him get to the final. I am not sure what to expect from Raonic. Bit as Ricky said, the court conditions are more favorable to Raonic and Kyrgios here. I bet Novak is glad that he doesn’t have Kyrgios in his part of the draw.
It’s going to be interesting to see if Novak, Murray and Stan can play better.
I noticed Goffin is also in Rafa’s section of the draw.
Nny!…Hey,how’re u doing?Fully recovered now?If so,Thank you God,for your generosity!…Anyway,Yay!..fill the Bracket now Nny..don’t think too much okay?Yeah…Rafa’s quarter are crazy tough!But i picked him to win anyway!!hehehe…
But u missed WTA Nny!…I’m really looking forward to get my backside kick by u!You’re really did it brilliantly in Barca[ATP]…I can’t sit properly till now!!hahaha!…
Good luck Nny!
MA,
I didn’t even check how I did in Barca. Do you have the link for the bracket? Then I will do it today and get it out there of the way.
I don’t like to pick against Rafa. But I not sure if he will win this one. I think a tough draw will be a good test for him now. Let’s see how he does here.
Nny!…Sorry!late to reply..just woke up!Hehe…That’s alright Nny..just pick what your instinct told u okay?I don’t like to picked against Rafa as well,and i know he maybe not win here..considering his tough opponents all the way..also the condition in Madrid not suited his game very well but..i thought last year,when he played Novak,he’s already played with wrist pain and Novak’s also still in high level…and Rafa gave him a very stern test and almost win…so,i think Rafa still has a chance to win based on his high confidence and self belief,also he’s free of pain and injury….so,Nny..here’s the link okay?
http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/bracket/edit
Rafa didn’t play Djoko in Madrid last year.
Nadal wont win Madrid. I am okay with that as he needs to lose at 1 tourney before RG. He has never ever won all 5 together..max 4
There’s always a first time; given how weak the field is right now I hope Rafa can capitalize and max out his ranking points during this clay season, winning the FO at the end of it. I believe after winning the FO Rafa will be more relaxed going forward from there.
Seconded!
I would love him to win all 5 but what is the chance he will do it at 30 plus? I dont want him to win everything till RG and then lose there to someone..
Surely when it comes to clay, its down to everyone else to beat Rafa, rather than it been down to Rafa to beat everyone else :-/
….
Agreed. Rafa is the best! But what worries me is all those articles singing Rafa’s praises. It kind of puts more pressure on me so I can just imagine what it must be doing to Rafa. He prefers being the underdog. Also the media has a short memory. I remember that in 2011 after Rafa got defeated by Nole on clay, the general consensus was that Djokovic was the new king and but for his freakish loss to Fed at RG, he would have beaten Rafa in the final. No one said that beating Rafa doesn’t make anyone king of clay..only beating Rafa’s record can do that. So I wish the media would shut up with its insincere accolades and after Rafa wins RG, they can praise him to high heavens and it wouldn’t bother me.
It’s not like Rafa hasn’t faced all those pressure before, he still won nine FOs after winning MC, Barcelona, and Rome or Madrid or Hamburg! He knows what’s it’s like every season, I’m sure he can overcome all those pressure and produces his best tennis when it matters.
Winning at MC and Barcelona the way he did it will give him plenty of confidence, I trust that he knows what to do to win at RG again.
Alison,
Well said!
?♥️
OOP for Sunday, May 7th:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_JzpShXsAMBMe_.jpg
There aint no new KOC, that will always be Rafa, Novak might beat Rafa here or there, but has a long way to go before he surpasses Rafas achievements on this surface, let him win 10 FOs, 11 MC Masters, 11 Barcelona trophies , however many at Rome and Madrid, then come back and talk ….
Rafa isn’t just the King of Clay, he is BY FAR the best player on a given surface ever! He’s better on clay than Federer/Sampras are on grass, and Djokovic/whoever on hard. And it ain’t even close… I understand that records/achievements almost always get broken at some point, but I truly believe that Rafa’s clay dominance could be the one feat that just will not ever be matched. I’ll stop short at using the word “can’t”… Before Rafa came around, I doubt anyone would have imagined a player emerging who could dominate a surface THAT overwhelmingly, so who can say for sure that there won’t be another player one day who dominates a surface so potently? That being said, Rafa’s clay court dominance, at LEAST until 2014, was so damn near perfection that I would not be the LEAST BIT surprised if no one ever even comes CLOSE to that level of dominance. Even just from 2005 through MC 2011- dude only lost FOUR MATCHES… Over six seasons, four losses… It’s just so difficult to imagine someone else doing that ever again, it’s so insane.
One time I decided to write down a list of the losses that Rafa took on clay in the ten season span from MC 2005 until the end of 2014, just to give myself a perspective of how few times this guy lost on clay over TEN seasons. He only lost 12 matches over a ten season span… And if you don’t count the blue clay loss, it’s 11. That is so unthinkable, so I decided to write it down on paper to make it more tangible haha. It was basically a bullet-point list, with one loss per line. The amount of losses that Rafa took on clay in ten seasons only took up just over 1/3 of the page!! It really put his achievement in perspective for me. Keeping in mind that he played at least 5 clay tournaments per year, only 12 tournament losses is just laughably dominant! And when you see those 12 tournament losses written in a vertical list, it’s even more mind-blowing… It’s very hard imagine anyone ever having that level of dominance ever again…
Till Rafa came along, Borg was considered to be the most dominant on clay. Guillermo Vilas had more titles but they were not big titles. Rafa has surpassed both in terms of sheer dominance at RG and the clay season in general and number of titles. Who knows another may come to eclipse Rafa but I suspect it will be a long wait. Probably because of media exposure, sponsorships, too much money, the nextgen are not hungry enough to be as dedicated to the discipline and sacrifice that dominance requires.
Nativenewyorker many thanks 🙂 ….
Exactly Mary ….
It doesnt bother me one iota that Rafa and Novak are on the same side of the draw, in fact im glad, as this thankfully eliminates the possibility of another final between these two ….
Watch out for that Kyrgios Nadal match. Would not be surprised if Nick sprung an upset. He’s literally the one guy I think can beat Rafa right now besides Stan if Stan was playing him at the end of the tourney and found his form.
Ricky didn’t pick Stan to last till the final. I think he pick Thiem instead.
After watching the TB Ten tennis exho at Madrid, I’m beginning to understand why Ricky didn’t pick Stan to reach the final, for Stan did poorly at the exho. Stan said it’s too fast for him (I supposed not just the format but the surface too, as Madrid clay surface was a fast clay court).
As for Kyrgios, I’ve reservation about him on clay; I doubt he can cause an upset on clay as he’s not well prepared on clay this time. We shall see….
Stan is the most curious case. Three GS titles, but only one masters 1000. Based on his track record, there really is no reason to pick him to win a big title unless he makes it to a GS final, in which case there is almost no reason to pick against him. Somehow, he reserves his best tennis for the very biggest matches, but rarely plays that well at any other time.
I used to dislike Wawa because he made such a racket when Rafa had his back problem at AO 2014. I think he almost demanded to see a medical certificate. That injury was the turning point in Rafa’s career. I think it made him lose confidence in his body and though he somehow won RG that year, he wasn’t the same after that for a long time. Anyway, coming back to Wawa, I have forgiven him for his crybaby antics and actually like him now! It is great to see him play when he is playing his best tennis! His backhand is more beautiful than Federer’s.
Well, I don’t agree about the AO 2014, but I do agree about the beautiful backhand. When it’s on form, the combination of beauty and power in his BH is, I think, unmatched by any other shot in tennis.
What I don’t understand is why he seems to need the extreme pressure of a GS final to bring his very best.
What don’t you agree about AO 2014?
In terms of beauty alone,I like Gasquet’s BH, such a beauty to behold!
CryBaby took advantage of an uptight Djokovic in 2015, an injured Rafa in 3014 and a burned out Djokovic in 2016 to win his three slams.
Mary (AT 12:53 AM),
It’s not the reason why Mrs. Mirka called Waw ‘crybaby’.
She couldn’t keep her mouth shut during the match between her husband and Waw at the 2014 WTF and called Wawrinka ‘crybaby’ after he complained about that.
Don’t worry CryBaby fans.
Mirka was not only joking or just being polite.
#ImWithHer
#MitkasRight
Oh, I know Mirka called Wawa crybaby but I am calling him a crybaby because of his complaints when Rafa had back problems. His crybaby antics,sadly enough, if I remember correctly, led the crowd to think Rafa was faking or using delaying tactics and they booed Rafa.
Mary (AT 3:50 AM),
There was one more whiner at the AO2014. Mrs. Mirka’s husband accused Rafa of SELECTIVE grunting (“One point he DOES and one point he DOESN’T”).
He complained at least TWICE to umpire about that. LOL
Stan the Man is a misnomer.
CryBaby deserted his wife and child.
#MitkasRight
#ImWithHer
I am not sure about Kyrgios. If there was any surface I would want Rafa to play Kyrgios, it would be clay. He’s been more fun caused and played well in the latter part of the hard court season. We will see if he can keep it up,
As for Stan, we know he can play on clay. But he just has not looked good lately. I keep thinking he’s going to heat up in either Madrid or Rome. He does seem to save his best for slams, but I don’t know that you can just turn it on and off at will. It’s important to show up at Masters tournaments. Unless Stan thinks he can just play himself into form when he gets to RG.
Kyrgios has been more focused and player well in the latter part of the clay season. *
Haven’t Nole and Nadal been drawn in the same half in almost every draw that I can remember in the last one year? Can hawkeye throw some light on this? I haven’t been maintaining my own data/stats for the last 5 years so these days I find it tough to verify anything which is not readily available on ATP site.
Last six in a row. A 1 in 64 chance.
Last masters they were on opposite sides was 2016 Madrid. As you correctly say, a year ago.
Well 1 in 64 is not that unlikely but still gives one cause to wonder.
What are your thoughts about this, hawkeye?
Incidentally, I’ve never understood why there are tournament ‘draws’ at all. Why not simply match players based on their rankings? (1-128; 2-127 and so on). For a long time I assumed that’s the way it was done, and was surprised to find out otherwise.
On a related note, I’ve never understood why the top players are granted byes at many tournaments. Surely there are players who would happily fill those slots, and it is simply unfair to give the top players an advantage. Tennis is top-heavy enough as it is.
Top players play more matches than most and are likely to have played a final the day before a tournament starts. That’s the theory anyway. Top players are HUGE drawing cards. The bye can be the difference between a top player appearing or choosing to sit out for the week.
I think your second point is really the operative one. Obviously a lot of smaller tournaments depend on stars to show up, but I would think Masters 1000 level tournaments would be popular enough without the byes. And it still seems unfair to lower ranked players.
Rank hath its privileges. What else is new? That said, a bye can be a disadvantage if a top player draws a “hot” player in his first round. That’s one way upsets happen.
Definitely very suspicious. Motive is to minimize number of points Rafole can collectively earn.
The other reason is to maximize the probability that they play each other given respective lack of form by one or the other.
Both business decisions. Personally, I’d do the same if I was responsible for maximizing tennis revenues.
Again, Mary, the odds alone show nothing without a minimally plausible motive. Why would someone want to put them together? I’m assuming that Federer wasn’t in several of those draws at all, though I haven’t checked.
Almagro still seems a bit rusty so I think Djokovic will get past him, after that, he’ll probably have problems with Simon even Robredo. I know Krygios has the game to trouble anyone, but Rafa beat him in Rome last year: 67 62 63 so it won’t be easy, but Rafa can do it.
Nadal vs Krygios Rome 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbV3I5i-RuM
Rafa was already having some problems with his wrist at that time. Also, Kygrios had played a few tournaments on clay by then. Kygrios has not played on clay so far this season until now. Rafa is playing better tennis this year than last year imo, so I’m positive Rafa can handle his draw here at Madrid.
Uh oh….
RT @carole_bouchard: No press conference from Nadal : he has a bad otitis. Will do it tomorrow. As of now, he’s still going to play.
Really hawks??Oh no!!!..I’m always worried when he’s on winning streak because something always happened to stop his momentum…hopefully,it will not disrupt his momentum this time Hawks…
Better he does pull out if he is under the weather. Too force himself to play when he is not 100% fit is taking an unnecessary risk; To do so and lose would do more harm than good.