Monte-Carlo SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Berdych vs. Monfils

Djokovic warming up for his matchA blockbuster showdown between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal is on the cards for Saturday in Monte-Carlo. A much more surprising semifinal pits Tomas Berdych against Gael Monfils.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Djokovic and Nadal will be squaring off for the 43rd time in their careers when they collide all too early in the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters semifinals on Saturday afternoon. The head-to-head series stands at 23-19 in favor of Nadal, who is a dominant 14-4 against Djokovic on clay. They have not faced each other since the 2014 French Open final, won by the Spaniard 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4. Djokovic, however, is a much more respectable 4-5 in their last nine clay-court meetings and one of those five losses came in a 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 9-7 thriller in the 2013 Roland Garros semis. Overall, the Serb has won four of their last five encounters.

Comfortably ranked No. 1 in the world, Djokovic has been beating up not just on Nadal in recent times. Everyone his been at his mercy, including 15 consecutive opponents and 28 of 30 during this 2015 campaign. So far in Monte-Carlo, Djokovic has rolled over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Andreas Haider-Maurer, and Marin Cilic. Nadal cruised past Lucas Pouille before needing three-setters against both John Isner and David Ferrer. Friday’s all-Spanish quarterfinal battle lasted two hours and 44 minutes, longer than the other three quarterfinal matches combined. The word No. 5 is going to be counted out as a result of his modest current form and tough tests the past few days, but he will raise his level when required. Nadal’s eight Monte-Carlo titles and 14-4 clay-court record against Djokovic will give the underdog–yes, the underdog–confidence he has not enjoyed since last year’s French Open.

Pick: Nadal in 3

[polldaddy poll=8807934]

(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (14) Gael Monfils

Monfils was not even initially entered in Monte-Carlo, but he asked for a late wild card and the decision to play has paid off in a big way. After scraping past Andrey Kuznetsov in three sets, the 18th-ranked Frenchman beat an in-form Alexandr Dolgopolov, upset Roger Federer in straights, then hammered Grigor Dimitrov 6-1, 6-3 on Friday.

Berdych has not dropped a single set while taking out Sergiy Stakhovsky, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Milos Raonic. The sixth-seeded Czech’s road to the last four was made even more routine by Raonic’s retirement at 5-2 in the opening set of their quarterfinal clash. Berdych is leading head-to-head series with Monfils 5-1, including 2-0 already this season. But the world No. 8 benefited from an indoor hard court in Rotterdam and Monfils had to retire in Miami after falling on his hip. Monfils is looking like a different player now, especially on clay. He has been moving his opponents all over everywhere and he will do the same to Berdych, whose mediocre movement is at its worst on the slow stuff.

Pick: Monfils in 2

[polldaddy poll=8807936]

167 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal, Berdych vs. Monfils

  1. Rickster, retract that Rafa vs Novak prediction tout de suite! A tard quick to jump off the Novak bandwagon onto Rafa’s, no?

  2. On the positive (and grander scheme), Rafa this week has played much better overall than how he played in most of the lead up events to RG last year which bodes well for No. 10.

    However, in the shorter term (read tomorrow)…

    Nadal hit way too many short balls today for much of the match and stayed too far back receiving serve against that little beast servebot. His nerves returned in the second set surrendering the double break failing to serve out the match in two.

    Nole, however, is on course to set the (gluten-free) bagel record this year. In addition, Nole is 4-2 since 2011 against Rafa (when he was in better form than he is currently) in best of three on clay.

    This match will be won between the ears.

    Therefore, although Rafa will have chances for the victory, Novak in two over Rafa in the “final” is the pick (as Rafa alluded to in his post match interview today).

    Important thing (as he also said) is that he is there.

  3. I didn’t Rafa played that well against Ferrer. He was cruising– until he wasn’t. Whereas, Nole has been pretty dominant. That said, I agree with Ricky’s pick: Rafa in three.

  4. That’s some pick from Ricky! I must confess to being surprised. I think that Novak is the favorite for this one. But as is the case many times, it’s on Rafa’s racket. My concern is those second set blues. Rafa cannot afford to give back even one break, much less two. Not against Novak.

    Novak is supremely confident right now, having won the AO and now IW and Miami again. He’s got the belief. The question is, how much confidence and belief has Rafa gained from his last two victories? Will it be enough? It is between the ears and that’s why Rafa is usually the best bet. But he’s still shown a tendency to go walkabout and also play a bit too passively.

    Nothing is absolute. Nothing is guaranteed. Rafa has a chance to win if he can keep it together and just believe. No matter what, this has been a great week for him. Whatever the outcome of this match, I do not think it means anything in relation to RG. That is where Rafa is at his most formidable, even when he has not dominated in the warmup tournaments.

    • absolutely! This has been a very positive tournament so far. I agree the second set blues is the only major concern but rafa will overcome this issue as well . he just needs some time perhaps. I think rafa is moving well, feeling the ball well and controlling his nerves much better now. The recovery against ferrer will hopefully boost his confidence.

      I think rafa will go into the match without the burden of expectations and that might allow him to play will additional ‘colm’, no? You never know.

      Novak looks to be the favorite but rafa is in with a good shot. He is improving every day and we know where all this is heading 😉 . HInt: 10th crown

  5. If I have t g by the way Rafa is currently playing so so passively he has n chance against Nole. Rafa seems to lose focus esp when he is ahead,. Rafa has absolutely no confidence nhus game and the aggession is lacking, if he wins tomorrow I will be shocked but of course, happy!

  6. “I hope to be recovered physically because obviously I am not used to play at that level of tennis and that intensity for three hours in a tough match, battle, on clay.

    “I don’t know how I will be physically tomorrow. I hope to be ready.

    “I have nothing to lose tomorrow, it’s a good tournament already for me. I did what I wanted to do here. I am sure that will help me for Barcelona, for Madrid, for the next few weeks.”

    I hope he is physically ready. It was a long , grueling battle against Ferrer. Rafa is not at this physical peak right now as he is still adapting . But I think he will be ready.

    • When I watched the entire third set on the tennis channel replay, I was struck by how physical and demanding it was for both players. Rafa’s words kind of concern me a bit. He may not have enough left after this battle to take on Novak. We know that it’s tough to take down Novak at any time. That’s one reason why I hoped that Rafa would finish it in two sets, even though I predicted the win in three sets. Rafa does pay a price for not being able to close out matches these days. If Rafa was at his peak, then he would have no trouble coming back after the grueling battle. But after reading his own words, now I am not so sure.

      I am glad that Rafa is going into the final feeling that he has nothing to lose. He has done what he had to do and can move forward with some good feelings. There is more clay tennis to be played.

  7. Big Berd has dominated Monfils in all of their matchups, except for the 5 setter at Roland Garros in 13′ where Monfils had 15 more total points than Berdych.
    Berdych absolutely dominated Monfils on clay in Madrid in 2012 winning 52 of 71 total points. Both players are experienced and talented hard court players, having nearly the same winning percentage on both clay and hard courts, yet Berdych ran through Monfils twice already this year on hard. You could use the injury retirement as an excuse for his performance at the Miami masters, but Monfils was already down a set (6-3) when he fell and injured himself. It was clear Berdych was well in control of the match, having been up 15 total points at the time of the retirement.
    I love how well Monfils has been playing so far at Monte Carlo, especially how he was able to follow up on his upset of Federer with another great showing in his match up with Dimitrov, but I just don’t see him being able to get over the proverbial hump against Berdych. Berdych has played everyone aside from the top 10 fantastically: 1-6 versus the top 10 not including the Raonic retirement. He is 22-0 against players not ranked in the top 10. Make of that what you will, but it is a testament to Tomas’ elite consistency. He rarely disappoints in matches you would expect him to compete in, he is playing in his ‘home tournament’ as he resides in Monte Carlo, and he will be well rested following the short match with Milos.

    Berdych in 3 sets is my pick

  8. No one in their right mind would say nadal will win against Novak tmrw. Are u not seeing his current form and play? Novak is beasting in Monte Carlo. Die hard nadal fans I’m sorry but his out tmrw

    • I don’t see why anyone would make a comment to the effect that no one in their right mind would Rafa will win against Novak in the final. No one here is God. I think Ricky is in his right mind.

      Novak is the favorite. Rafa may not be ready to meet him at this point in time. He had a physical match against Ferrer and his own comments indicate that he is not sure if he can recover fully in time for the final.

      Novak is not beasting. Have you seen his draw and who he is playing? Give me a break! He could have just sleepwalked to the semis! So let’s keep it real!

  9. Let’s not forget that Rafa was in similar beast mode in 2009 for first 5 months

    He won AO , Indian wells , Montecarlo , Barcelona , Rome before RG

    We then know what happened

      • Yes that was not for Rafa. Don’t understand your haha, at least understand the point made.

        Rafa was dominating 2009 first 4 -5 months just like Novak is now and then he got injured.

        Anything can happen in tennis n its unpredictable.

  10. Rafa has started off well with the early break. He had another chance to get the double break, but Novak held.

    Unfortunately, we have to suffer with Mary Carillo and Justin Gimelstob doing the commentary. So Mary Carillo is going on about how Rafa does not use the tournament towels because they don’t absorb all his sweat. He has the white towels. Really? This is what passes for tennis commentary these days? Unbelievable.

  11. my tv not showing it live and today not even a single live streaming link working 🙁 🙁 Incredible!!

    How is rafa playing?? Novak has broken back

  12. Rafa is playing fine tennis at the moment and not allowing djokovic much rhythm.one thing that he continiues to do well is length on his backhand! even from deep positions, he is generating great depth.

    VAMOS! massive forehadn DTL!! get the break here!

  13. These two kids at at least playing some great tennis!! Rafa is holding his own a least and their drop shots are entertaining!! Vamos!

  14. Novak playing great too. I am soo impressed with rafa’s groundstrokes at the moment because of the depth he is getting. He has survived this 10 min long game . Both are drawing each other to the net by playing drop shots! Novak did exceptionally well to hitting passing shot winners on two of rafa’s drop shots.

  15. Rafa at least is fighting but he needs yo hold when it counts, he gets broken way too easily these days. He should have won this set esp after the break but he could not hold, too predictable these days!

  16. ok that turnaround was quick. Rafa just could not convert break points and novak did that :/

    Rafa playing at a good level but there are a few things he is not doing what a peak-form rafa would do. His backhand has good length but he still does not have enough confidence to give it less air and make it more penetrative. Plus, he does not quite have enough confidence on his forehand inside-out. Djokovic is expecting those off forehands and because rafa is not hitting them well enough, djokovic is able to direct them up the line.

    Ok rest of the comments later…it has resumed…

  17. I agree about Rafa being unable to convert break points. This is a problem that has plagued him this year. If you don’t take those chances against Novak, then things can turn very quickly. That was a long game and Rafa was putting a lot of pressure on Novak, but he ultimately held his serve. Then I sensed the break coming with Rafa. That’s all it took.

    I think Rafa played well and had his chances to take that first set. But Novak was just a bit better in the key moments and did enough to get it done.

  18. I think the stats show how close it was in the first set. Rafa is holding his own with second serve points won at 50% to Novak at 55%.

    Rafa fought off two break points and held to start the second set.

  19. Rafa doing a fine job on his service games but he is making it too easy for novak in return games in set 2.

    Intensity on rafa’s strokes has also tapered off a little

  20. Attitude has been positive… we know how important that is for rafa..that is a good hold and he finished that with a smash winner! must have felt good.

    I hope novak’s first serve % drops now and rafa is able to string together a good run. You are the underdog right now but you can do it , rafa . Come on!

    Novak has hit 56% of his backhands DTL! WOW! this is supreme control esp given the fact that he hits a lot of those backhands off rafa’s mammoth CC forehand

  21. THAT is what I call a CC backhand, rafa! WOAH. Come on….. He could have done better in the previous game. … anyway, smooth sailing to 40-0… hold here and keep trying your best.

    STEP UP THE COURT , RAFA. Summon the confidence…

    Shit, 40-30! no deuce please!

  22. Would be too much to ask to come back from here :/ He could have closed out the game, sighhh.

    Just want to see some fight from rafa now. His backhand has been pummeled by novak and he has not been able to do enough damage with his forehand,

  23. killing it with the predictions the past few days….good thing I’ve been fading most of your selections. I could see picking Monfils or Rafa to win today, but picking both was obviously a little too cute on your part. Possibly wishful thinking with the Rafa pick, but with the way the Joker has played this year you knew it was going to be a practically insurmountable task. Big Berd and the Joker coming through sealed the deal for my parlay, and has paid off handsomely.
    Also, Novak wins tomorrow losing fewer than 7 games. This tourney is done like dinner, and it is merely noon time here in the states.

    • Top calls, Curtman. How do you see Roland Garros panning out? The rafans seem to be taking more positives from MC 2015 than last year; I just see a second loss in three clay events played, and a fifth clay defeat inside the last 53 weeks. Not great when we consider he’s lost just 26 in his entire career. Plus it is now fully three years since he won MC – an event he dominated like no other man at any tournament in tennis history.

      True, Nadal needed to ‘see’ Djokovic’s form ahead of the Big One; and never let us forget that he may not need to go through the Serb in order to vie for la décima (remember Martina’s sole loss in 1983 was to the unheralded Kathy Horvath in RG, R4, facilitating yet another Chrissie win); but goodness me, he barely landed a blow against the runaway #1 today. Djokovic won 15 more points, but Nadal served nine more points than his nemesis, quite a gap when both players served a total of nine times each. Of course, all will be forgiven if he wins in Paris. But after today I can only hope he doesn’t have to meet Djokovic there.

      • You’re missing one thing though, last year Rafa looked much worse during the clay season before he kicked Nole’s arse at RG for the… God I’ve lost count.

        Keep drinking the koolaid fedfans I mean “Nole” fans. How many times!!!!

      • It is too early to say for certain, once the draw comes out we will obviously have a clearer picture of how things pan out. At this point in time I admit Rafa was nowhere near the level of Novak for most of his match. The Joker is looking like he could work over anyone in the game right now, on any surface, which is a scary thought. I think it is easier to take positives from this match because on many points you saw what some would consider classic rafa, yet he was woefully inconsistent from point to point and still seemed to let the mental side of things get to him here, which he can ill afford when playing against the best in the game today.
        I can see him cruising the quarterfinals without much trouble, but if he has to face Federer or Djokovic at any point in the tournament it won’t be any picnic. At this point, it seems difficult to put your faith, or your money on the king of clay. I feel he is and will be using the doubt from others as fuel, but his own doubts are what have led him to where he stands today. He needs to go out there and just rip it, not worry about the result, and try to have fun while doing it. Otherwise, he is in danger of falling further into what I refer to as the Tiger Woods syndrome.
        I will pick Nadal to make the semi-final, but lose to Djokovic. In my mind, anyone other than the joker is fair game to be a victim to Rafa at RG.
        Being left-handed myself I enjoy rooting for any left-handed player. especially the best one in the game in my generation.
        I hope he makes the final, but I just don’t see him being able to come away with the title this year. I actually feel like he might put up a better result at wimbledon, though I have nothing whatsoever to base that claim on, merely a hunch. How do you see it playing out @forsureheisthefavouritecommanoquestionmark and @Hawkeye63

      • CURTMAN3000 says:
        April 21, 2015 at 8:49 am,
        ___ what I refer to as the Tiger Woods syndrome___
        ======================================================
        The Tiger Woods syndrome was (is?): mistresses.

      • Tiger Woods syndrome is when a great athlete, one who has in the past dominated their competition, suddenly loses the relentless self-confidence which has allowed them to excel to their current standing and begins to start questioning every move they make and over analyzing the situation until it becomes impossible for them to maintain a positive mindset throughout their match and they become a shell of their former figure. I don’t see this happening anywhere near as seriously as it has with Tiger, but it is certainly interesting to see how greatly one’s mindset dictates the outcome of the event.

      • CURTMAN3000 says:
        April 21, 2015 at 9:59 am
        ___Tiger Woods syndrome is when a great athlete, one who has in the past dominated their competition, suddenly loses the relentless self-confidence___
        ==================================================================

        TW lost more than his self-confidence after his extra-marital affairs were revealed.

        Wikipedia: ¤¤ From December 2009 to early April 2010, Woods took leave from professional golf to focus on his marriage after he admitted infidelity, but he and his wife Elin Nordegren eventually divorced. His many extra-marital indiscretions were revealed by several different women, through many worldwide media sources. This was followed by a loss of golf form, and his ranking gradually fell to a low of No. 58 in November 2011. He ended a career-high win-less streak of 107 weeks when he captured the Chevron World Challenge in December 2011. After winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational on March 25, 2013, he ascended to the No.1 ranking once again, holding the top spot until May 2014. Woods had back disc surgery in April 2014, and has struggled since to regain his dominant form. ¤¤

      • I am curious augustan08, I’m wondering if you can tell me why you call out the transgressions of Tiger Woods while failing to recognize that Mirka was correct to call out Stan the Cry Baby for not living up to his commitments as a family man. Why do you come to the Cry Baby’s defence? Mirka is right, he is a boy, not a man.

        Curtman3000, to answer your question, Novak is dominating year after year but not at the French Open. He looked better in 2011 but lost to Federer. He has a 5-2 record on clay against Nadal in best of three since that time, yet Nadal is 3-0 h2h at the FO. Nadal’s confidence was extremely low for most of the clay season leading up to the French, yet he still won at the French while not at his best.

        I put it down to the difference between Masters and slams, typically hotter weather in June, mental strength and Rafa simply being better on Chartrier.

        Nole is 0-6 vs Nadal at RG.

        I pick Nadal at the French.

        Nice to see some tennis talk from real tennis fans such as yourself Curtman3000! 🙂

      • Yes, what you are saying about Woods is true. I was by no means comparing the circumstances that led to his poor play to how Rafa is playing right now. If you compared the two at the moment Rafa is ten times more confident and capable of succeeding. I was merely comparing the similarities between over analyzing, lack of self confidence, and success on the court. Sure, Tiger had all of that happen in 09-10 but what about now when the media and fans have forgiven him? He is no longer the albatross of Golf, he is by many beloved and considered the GOAT by some, yet he still cant seem to find any type of rhythm. It is no longer about his ‘scandal’ it is about his lack of ability on the golf course. You talk about Tiger having surgery and having to return to the course after months off, which is more than comparable to Rafa’s return this past year.

        What I was saying is that if Rafa continues to struggle to find his consistency, he could be in a bit of hot water with not only fans, but the media coming around with talk of his reign of dominance over. You cannot deny that after what he said in his press conference after his loss to verdasco in Miami he has some problems with confidence. He talked about being too nervous for many of the points, due to the expectations and pressure he puts on himself to win. If he loses a few matches this summer to players who have no business holding court against him, the confidence issues could really bubble up.

      • He was less confident last year. This year he is already playing better at Mote Carlo compared to last year.

        He got what he needed from Monte Carlo – to feel Nole’s level again before Roland Garros, to improve his form and find confidence.

        Winning Roland Garros is about peaking at the right time, something Nadal consistently does better than Djokovic year after year.

        And therein lies the difference.

      • Thank you hawkeye, I appreciate being able to have serious yet civil with other fans who have more knowledge than I. Having seen the stats you have regarding Nole at the French I would definitely have to reconsider my prediction. Head to Head is the be all end all, and regardless of his current form, Nole will absolutely have those numbers in the back of his mind while preparing for the potential matchup with Rafa. It would be impossible for him to completely disregard past events, as beating Rafa there is one of the very few mountains Nole has yet to reach the summit of.
        I certainly hope Nadal continues to improve his play as the year goes on. In my opinion, tennis is best when the greats are at their best. I am sure this is something that most true fans of the sport think as well. as many on this site say, vamos Rafa!

      • @augusta08, April 21, 2015 at 10:37 am

        just wanted to respond to your post on tiger woods syndrome…great post! I myself were going to say that this syndrome is caused by Woods being disgraced in public with his infidelity and affairs that astonished the whole world and caused him losing the image of a sportsman whom youngsters looked up to…he even lost his millions worth sponsors…

        In any way it is by no means comparable with Rafa and it certainly has no similarities with Rafa’s situation…it is such a shame that people do these ridiculous insinuations…it’s rather naïve and uninformed comment…

  24. 6 forehand winners to novak’s 12… you know this is far from vintage rafa 🙂

    Strong performance from djokovic but there were positives for rafa to take! I know he will take them and move on to win Barcelona.

    Finally he is moving in the right direction.

  25. Some like to gloat over this result, but there is more tennis to be played. I guess it was to be expected. I thought Rafa played better in the first set and seemed to fade in the second set. Novak came on stronger. I sensed that Rafa wasn’t going to be able to hold his serve in that last game.

    The stats do tell the story. Superior serving from Novak and twice as many forehand winners. There is more work to be done.

    Now it’s on to Barcelona where Rafa has his work cut out for him with another tough draw.

  26. I have to say that this was absolutely the worst commentary from Mary Carillo and Justin Gimelstob on the tennis channel. Of course, they had to go there and say that now Novak is the favorite to win RG. Not surprising from these two.

    • They are merely trying to create drama by going to this talking point. Sure, Novak has been playing fantastically this season, but you can never count out Rafa at his favorite tournament on his favorite surface. The talking heads can say whatever they like, but it doesn’t make it so. Gimelstob should be focusing on Isner and getting big John back into the top 10 rather than foolishly counting out the best clay court player in history. Rafa had some great points today, and in my opinion looked more confident in his abilities than he has all year. He can only go up from here, which is a scary thing to say about a player that made the semifinals. Obviously, his standards are to be at the pinnacle of the game and his fans expect no less. Mark my words, Rafa will be back to his old tricks sooner than later. This will be the summer of Rafa’s renaissance.

      • I see multiple titles, of at least 1000 level events. Maybe not the form that he once had,and perhaps I was being a bit hyperbolic in using the term renaissance, but results like those would be a marked improvement from where he stands currently.
        Are you suggesting that he is cooked and has nothing left in the tank and will walk away soon? Or do you think he his going to fall out of the top 10 and do a Leyton Hewitt and hold on until he is ranked well outside the top 50?

  27. Rafa’s serve has been horrible all day long. It’s tough to occasionally make double faults.
    I think Djokovic has to be the favorite to win RG. Now it’s clear Rafa is the underdog in this matchup. Towards the end of the match, Rafa ran out of ideas on how to attack Djokovic. His shots were tentative and incredibly predictable. I did not know that was Rafa’s fault or Djokovic’s anticipation.

    No matter what, there is time for Rafa to work on his game. Hopefully he will be able to gain some confidence soon.

  28. The commentators On sky sports were also like ‘this is the year when the change will finally take place’ .LOL….only barry cowan is the sensible voice in sky’s team.

    A lot of rallies and patterns of plays were similar to the ones we saw in rome’14 final and MC’13 final.

    Rafa is definitely moving in the right direction. Rafa showed much better courage today and that was the best thing.

  29. I was waiting to hear Rafa’s thoughts on the match. My sense was that he played very well in the first set, but missed some chances to capitalize. I did think that his level dropped in the second set and sensed that he might be tired. He had two back-to-back three set matches and Ferrer can really take it out of his opponents. That’s why I hope that Rafa will be able to play more efficiently and close out matches when he has the opportunity. Although one say it’s good for him to come back strong and win a three set match, there is also a physical toll that is exacted. I don’t think Rafa had enough left to take on Novak. He’s not where he needs to be physically.

    However, when Rafa lost in 2013 he at least made it more competitive, taking the second set to a tb. He wasn’t able to do that this time. Rafa got to measure his game against Novak and that’s a good thing. Now he knows what more has to be done. He played well for moments in the match. That’s very true. But he could not sustain it.

    For a short while these two were slugging it out and the crowd was loving it. There is no question that this is the best Rafa has played. He’s on the right track and has to take the positive feelings and confidence into Barcelona.

  30. The Monaco final 2013 lasted the same time as this though score was 62 76

    Point to be noted is then in 2013 Novak wasn’t as good as he is playing now.

    I think this performance is identical to Monaco given where Rafa is now.

  31. Relax, Rafans……

    RT @linzsports: “Well, looks like there just enough tournaments on the horizon for Nadal to be in peak form for Roland Garros. Life.”

    Vamos!!

  32. Novak started rather nervous and Rafa could have been two breaks up… then the things could have gone way more complicated for Novak…but Rafa is not yet mentally there and could not sustain. It’s seems it came as a surprise to Rafa that he was able to break Novak so early. I hope Rafa reads into the fact that Novak being nervous at the start of the match is a sign of fear. Next time they meet Rafa should be able to capitalize on it.
    Of course everyone will put Novak as the favorite for RG…the current state of play speaks in favor of Novak…But Rafa will continue to improve…
    Vamos Rafa!

  33. I wrote a long message but it got lost…basically, Rafa had his chances and could have led 3:0…the things could have been made more difficult for Nole…Rafa is not yet mentally there and failed to capitalize on it…next time Rafa will take his chances..
    The interesting thing is that Nole’s start was nervous which indicates fear from Rafa.
    Rafa will only get better…
    Vamos Rafa!

    • natashao,

      Great observations! Novak had a scratchy start to the match. But Rafa getting the early break and then giving it back, still indicates that he is not there mentally yet. Also, when it was 4-3 on serve, Novak broke Rafa and that gave him the chance to serve for the set. Rafa still needs to be stronger in those moments.

      As you said, Rafa could have easily been ahead 3-0. I said in a previous comment here that Rafa didn’t capitalize on some chances in that first set. He was playing really well at times in that set. I was so happy to see him taking it to Novak in some of those long rallies.

      Novak knows that Rafa is not going anywhere. He should be afraid!

  34. Oh Gawd, I do not think I will be able to bear the incessant “Novak to de-throne Rafa at RG” drumbeat henceforth……….

    Please, please Rafa…………the fate of the Rafan universe is in your hands. Spare us.

  35. I hope Rafa will realize it’s time to go if he can’t win in Paris. At least he will always have his record over Roger. Novak seems to be overtaking him on clay even. That head to head will end in Novak’s favor.

    • I forgot to mention one thing. How is it that he is complaining about being tired all year? How on Earth is he going to not be tired in a best of 5? Is he still out of shape? If so that’s odd for him of all people.

      • You can’t read. He was tired after long match against Ferrer.

        Doesn’t really matter. Nole is beating Rafa in clay but Rafa always wins the big prize.

        It’s Federer who should pack it in. Rafa retiring its just wishful thinking from fedfan boys.

        Not pointing any fingers filter because we know you’ve never been a fedfan.:)

        Riiiight.

        And to the other clueless comment, Rafa said he was tired after his long match vs ferrer. Maybe I should change my name here to Nole’s favorite saying of late.

        Hilarious.

        #SMD
        #OhNoHeDiInt

    • filter,

      Sorry, but you don’t get to say when Rafa should retire. He’s earned the right to make that decision for himself. You are getting a bit carried away. It’s a dangerous game, because you risk looking the fool if you write off Rafa. He’s not going anywhere.

      Oh and about Rafa being tired at times earlier this year, you do realize how little Rafa played for all those months with the wrist injury and then the appendicitis? It takes time to get physically fit again when one is sidelined for months. So let’s not rewrite reality, shall we?

      Rafa should have been tired after that slugfest with Ferrer. Ferrer never gives away matches. He stays in it and runs down everything and doesn’t quit.

      However, you are more than welcome to indulge yourself in fantasies. 🙂

    • Agreed. Roger and Rafa should retire after Paris. I don’t see how being tired after the Ferrer match or the Djokovic match matters as neither went 5 sets. The point is before he never hardly got tired or certainly complained about it like now. Plus others here stated he lost today because he was tired.

      • He never got tired because his matches rarely went past 90 minutes like they have this year. Tennis at this level is won and lost with confidence. This week showed Rafa is gaining it in spades. Winning RG is about peaking at the right time something Nole has never managed and Roger did once only because Nadal wasn’t there. As usual Roger can’t win slams with Rafa in his way.

        Rafa will be back and apparently just like Roger on 2009, it’s KILLING you. As the AO MC told Roger, settle down little sad fan settle down.

      • There are more guys that can beat Rafa this year. Don’t get too bitter/agitated about it. Maybe he can win Paris again. We gonna see,no?

  36. If I were “Nole” (read closet fedfans), I’d be worried. Rafa found a lot of shots he’d been missing. He played worse during clay season last year and still kicked Nole’s arse in Paris. Nole wins his share of battles but Rafa always wins the war.

    Hey filter, how many slams has Rafa beaten Nole in a row now including ok hard court?

    Stay thirsty My fan.

    • hawkeye,

      Brilliant post! You said what I have been thinking today since the match ended. In that first set, I watched in amazement as Rafa went toe-to-toe with Novak blasting groundstrokes with such depth. He was standing eye-to-eye with him and Novak had all he could handle.

      This from a Rafa who has only won one title this year, had a string of bad losses and who is still fighting to come back from another long layoff. Yet for some moments there it was a real battle.

      The tennis channel commentators pointed out that Novak has had more success beating Rafa in best two out of three set matches, but in best of five slams Rafa has gotten the better of him.

    • @hawkeye63, you noticed that too? That Rafa is playing better on clay this year than he did last year? I thought my brain was playing tricks on me because that is my observation as well.

      He has a tough draw in Barcelona but I think this is what Rafa needs right now so that he reaches Paris well and truly cooked.

      Novak can win Madrid, Rome and whatever, he ain’t getting Paris!

      #LaDecima

      • Also, Novak is playing at his best right now whereas Rafa is not, he still has a few notches to climb.

        I rest my case.

        #ScaryforParis

  37. The comments on atpworldtour.com praising Novak (which he deserves) and dissing Rafa is unbearable. Reality check needs tob set in.

    • Ah sanju let them enjoy it while they can. They know that their time is limited.

      Nothing new. I feel sorry for Nole and his fed faithful. Nole deserves a French but it looks like Rafa gonna stop him again like he has done every time they have met.

  38. I was devastated after Rafa lost to Verdasco in Miami. That is the kind of loss that is so hard to take. But I am okay with the loss to Novak because the real Rafa has now shown up! The real Rafa is back. He is in the fight, battling and back to his fierce self. Now I never like to see Rafa lose and certainly not to Novak, but there are so many good things to take out of this. The scoreline does not reflect the closeness of the match. Now Rafa knows what he needs to work on. This is the best Rafa has played and not only is the game starting to come together but even more important, the mental strength. It was good for Rafa to take his measure against Novak. Now he can move on with some real confidence knowing that he is playing better now than he was at MC last year.

    Rafa does have a tough draw at Barcelona, but I think he’s up for it. Bring it on!

    There is something else that has gotten lost in the discussion. Rafa is healthy!

  39. Let people say what they want to say. Fact is , rafa is back on track!

    Everything that happened during his loss to djokovic can easily be put into perspective.

    Rafa got off to a quick start and djokovic was shaky. Rafa had a very good length on his groundstrokes and he was stepping in. The dynamics of the match slowly changed in novak’s favor and here are some of the things that made that possible:

    – Even though rafa had good length on his backhand during the first set, he did not have enough confidence to hit penetrative drives CC. Rafa in peak form is able to mix that up and he NEEDS that penetration to out maneuver djokovic. This is quite normal, he gives more air to his backhand when he is in the process of regaining his form.

    – Rafa was hitting his forehand with good aggression but the potency of it gradually faded as the match progressed. As the explained, he did not have enough explosiveness in his legs due to fatigue , which prevented him from being aggressive.
    Rafa said he is satisfied with his forehand. If we compare it with last year’s RG, his forehand needs to go up a full gear. The feel on inside-out and DTL needs to improve and he needs more confidence to take DTL forehand on the rise.

    – Novak took advantage as soon as the length on rafa’s strokes got reduced. Novak is the ultimate master of spreading the court with his backhand. He allowed rafa to play ONLY 56% of shots as forehands in set 1 !! This is amazing as rafa’s aim is usually at least 70%. He took away the run-around forehand by being deadly accurate and powerful with his backhand DTL. Rafa was not able to play enough forehand DTL’s to put novak off rhythm.

    -Rafa had 2 more winners in set 1 than novak but had 5 less winners in set 2. The dynamics changed. Rafa was not able to penetrate and made more UE than usual.

    – Novak Killed rafa’s body serve. There was a 196kmh body serve which novak magically hit for a return winner off his forehand to reach 40-30 in that 3-3 game in set 2.

    **Rafa’s using a new racket. Controlling the ball with a new stick requires some time.
    ** Rafa is slowly regaining his fitness. he needs more EXPLOSIVENESS in his legs when playing these matches. Now he will be dispatching other opponents with more ease and hence saving energy while also building muscular strength.
    ** Rafa was NOT able to penetrate into novak’s rock solid baseline game in Rome’14 final and had disappointing number of forehand winners. In three weeks time, he had a dozen more forehand winners in the french open final.
    **One of the best news : rafa’s passing shots are BACK.

    **SORRY FOR THE LENGTH OF THE POST , FOLKS

  40. And who would know better than Uncle Toni 🙂

    “I believe, I really believe, that if we continue as we are, that Rafael´s level is good enough to win Roland Garros”,

    “Rafael will be fit enough to battle for it, because of the level I’ve been watching him play at. The only thing missing is to be able to keep up that level of play over a long time… I think he can very definitely compete for Roland Garros. That court is good to us”

    “The first big TESTwas being able to keep calm again when on a tennis court, and to play high-intensity matches and not drop our guard, which is what had been happening to us in recent tournaments, and we’ve done it”

    “We are doing much better than when we got there”.

    (Source : Marca)

    well, there is a wave of optimism in the nadal camp. Why should we be pessimistic?!

    I say, he is in a much better state right now than he was last year !! VAMOS RAFA.

    • ^^
      Thank you for Uncle Toni’s reassuring words, @vamosrafa. I think Uncle Toni’s optimism is well founded. Rafa definitely looks calmer than he did last year this time round. You can tell this is something he has been working on. Well done Uncle Toni!

      What Rafa now needs is momentum. If he wins Barcelona with that loaded draw, be afraid, be very afraid………………

      Paris, with a bullet!

      • I hope Team Rafa’s focus going into Paris is to continue working on improving the missing bits in Rafa’s game and not worry about winning against Novak if they meet before Paris. Rafa must beat everybody else and go for broke against Novak in Paris. Of course if they meet before then and Rafa beats him, I will be okay with the result!

        I have a feeling THIS RG is make or break for Novak. If he does not win it he may go into a tailspin like he did after that painful loss to Rafa in Madrid (can’t remember the year……)

      • That’s an understatement. He’s won the last four Masters 1000, WTF and AO holding the largest point lead over No. 2 in ATP history.

        As I said (and Ricky failed to understand in his recent article), a confident Nadal is Djokovic’s greatest threat this year, certainly not Federer.

  41. Rusedski making some sense :

    “Djokovic has to win the French before we can say we have a new ‘King of Clay’ and the best player always wins in a three out of five set match so until Djokovic does that Rafa is still the king.

    “Nadal will go deep in Barcelona and don’t be surprised if he wins that event and then after that you’re going to have Rome and Madrid, so he’s going to build nicely.

    “He’s also also changed his racket, so it’s giving him a little bit more power and SPIN. It takes a little while to adjust. He finally put it into play in Monte Carlo so once those areas become what he wants it to be he will become even better.

    “All those Rafa fans out there – don’t worry – he’s getting better week in, week out.”

    • thanks hawkeye! 🙂

      and yeah, time for fedole fans to start worrying big time. Rafa’s winning Barca with a tough draw in place. Cannot wait!

    • hawkeye,

      I am in complete agreement with your posts @ 1:53 and 1:55 pm. There is no question in my mind that Rafa is the biggest threat to Novak. Fed may be #2 for now and that is a great accomplishment at his age, but he’s not going to challenge Novak. Certainly not in slams. Rafa showed in that semifinal match that he is the one who can take it to Novak and stay with him when he is mentally and physically at his best.

  42. plus, I think there are so many mini battles going on in rafole matches. The dynamics of their rivalry hinges on a range of mini-battles. There are a lot of tactical things going on there even though many like to discredit these two by saying they only play grinding rallies.

    -Rafa’s serving patterns, which were giving nole problems after rafa made adjustments post 2011, are not hurting nole that much now. Rafa needs to make minor adjustments and all it takes to swing the balance is minor adjustments because they are very closely matched up. The body serve was very well anticipated by nole on important points and he punished rafa.

    -Nole now by default expects a lot of rafa’s forehands to go to his own forehand so he is often waiting there. Because of this anticipation, he is able to hit forehand DTLs and prevent rafa from hitting powerful run-around forehands (rafa’s biggest weapon).

    – Rafa did not do enough to counter nole’s forehand DTLs in the open court. he needs to anticipate those a tad better and hit more authoritative CC forehands in the open court to take adv.

    -Nole is making rafa hit a lot of forehands in rafa’s forehand corner and by using his backhand to deadly effect, he makes rafa play either counter-attacking or defensive backhands on the deuce side (from where rafa LOVES to hit run-around booming forehands either inside-out or inside-in).

    – Nole hits drop shots on important points and on MOST of the times, he closes in, and hits a lob off rafa’s backhand slice dink! He has been doing that for quite some time now but still catches rafa off guard sometimes.

    So it is all about utilizing your own strengths as much as possible to exploit your opponent’s relative weaknesses. Rafa hit a lot of heavy, deep balls in the centre of the court in RG 2013 semi and that really set up inside out forehands for him as nole was robbed off the angles he needs to hit effective CC backhands.

    Rafa is a tactical genius. He will find the answers .

    • Thanks vamosrafa

      I think Rafa needs to hit the middle of the court a lot more to rob Novak the angles and he can then hot IO FHs for winners. You are right VR, he hit tons of those in RG 2013 semi and they came a lot in 5th set .

  43. vamosrafa,

    I don’t want to embarrass you, but I just have to say a huge thank you for your analysis of Rafa’s semifinal match with Novak. You have a keen eye for detail and can dissect the nuances and strategies that make this rivalry so interesting.

    You had so much to say that I hardly know where to respond. But you did clarify for me what the problem is with Rafa’s serving. I could see that it wasn’t effective enough against Novak, but didn’t know the why. Also your observations about Rafa’s forehand and the backhand were enlightening.

    I do think that Rafa is going to take good things out of this match. Now he knows what must be done. I am also heartened by Uncle Toni’s comments about Rafa’s performance in MC. So he also sees that Rafa is now able to fight and battle mentally in the crucial moments of the matches. He also realizes that Rafa must now work to maintain that high level of play for a longer time. That’s like the last piece of the puzzle.

    Some of the fans on VB were a bit concerned with Rafa citing fatigue after the Ferrer match. But it’s not like the leg cramping that happened to Rafa earlier this year. I don’t see this as unusual or anything new. Rafa said it in 2013 when he lost to Novak in the MC final. He didn’t have his legs under him. He didn’t have that explosiveness that is so important. It takes time to get back to top fitness and now that Rafa is two years older tha in 2013, it’s harder.

    I have to say that there were times in that match when Novak’s face said it all. I think he was surprised to see Rafa playing so well at moments in the match. I was really proud of Rafa for being able to hang in there. The score might look like a rout, but watching the match you realize that it turned on a few things. Rafa is not quite there yet, but that’s okay.

    I also appreciate Rusedski’s comments. I am not going to read any of the negativity. My advice to sanju and any other Rafan is to avoid reading the negativity on sites like ATP. I don’t read anything except here and on VB. I think talk is cheap and the know-nothings will jump to absurd conclusions. Let them do it. Because in the end, they will look quite foolish.

    I am feeling good about Rafa’s prospects now.

    • haha….NNY, thanks a lot 🙂 and as usual, your own comments are very enlightening and also spot on! this fatigue is very different from the one he experienced early in the year. He has had this before!

  44. This one is for all Rafans. I just read this post on VB by forum member cliffsiders. It was a tweet from Carole Bouchard. Here it is –

    Carol Bouchard just Tweeted this:

    Djokovic explains that the match vs Nadal demanded a lot to him mentally and physically. Paid price a bit today. “Today I won w/ my heart”

    Now we know that it was far from easy for Novak to take out Rafa. A Rafa who was nowhere near his best. All I can say is, watch out, Novak. It’s only going to get worse for you!

    It’s quite something to hear Novak admit what it took out of him to beat our Rafa. 🙂

  45. Hahaha! I am enjoying reading through the Novak and Fe centric websites. The level of willful Rafa-pessimism is stunning! Rafa is delusional, Rafa is toast, Rafa got lucky at RG the last 4 years blah, blah, blah………………

    More luck for Rafa at RG 2015, please!

    When Rafa wins, Rafans gush over HIM. What I am noticing with Nole fans is when Novak wins of late, they talk about Rafa! I guess that is why we are called Rafanatics (some of us). Tell you what, guilty as charged! Why would I want to talk about another player during a Rafa win??? All I will be wanting is to enjoy the victory, no? But then again, there is enjoyment in denigrating other people…………..

    I sense those are nervous glances from Nolefam………..

    Relax guys, Paris is still a long way away, the truth will be revealed then!

    Vamos!!

  46. I have never understood behavior of some fans. Many Nole fans are openly predicting calendar slam for him this year. I cant help but laugh at the silliness of it. I mean I am not saying he cannot, but predicting it ? 🙂

    I think since Rafa has been Feds main rivala nd is also Noles main rival, he gets the lions share of brickbats from fans of both players. Does Fed get that from Noles fans though Fed keeps beating him on and off. Does Murray get it? Does Nole get a beating from Fed fans as much as Rafa gets? It just says that Rafa is the main rival of both and he is the one feared more. Hell even Fed fears Rafa more than Novak, so does Novak fear Rafa more than Fed.

    • My sense is that, before 2011, most Nolefans empathized with Rafans because Nole used to suffer the same “shade” thrown by Fed, as Rafa, if not more. Nolefans’ calculation is that Novak has to surpass Rafa before he can gun for Fed’s records so it makes sense that they should “target” Rafa now. They have help from most Fedfans who have always hated Rafa for the constant humiliation he visits their God, Fed.

      So, Rafa is getting it from both sides: Nolefans and Fedfans currently. Muzza is not a threat to either Nole or Fed so his fans are spared opprobrium, for now.

      I do not see any negatives from Muzzafans, in fact I see they tend to defend Rafa quite a lot.

    • We know that Fed fans desperately want Novak to stop Rafa from equaling or surpassing Fed’s slam record. They don’t fear Novak at this time, because he is not an immediate threat to Fed’s legacy. However, Rafa’s lopsided h2h over Fed is already a thorn in the side of his rabid fans. They can’t get around it, can’t hide from it and become positively enraged whenever it is brought up. Because that is the one glaring asterisk and black mark on Fed. His main rival has owned him in the h2h.

      Rafa is the key player in these rivalries so he is going to be the main target. I am happily avoiding reading any of the nonsense from either Novak or Fed fans right now. I have always said that talk is cheap. It means nothing. What counts is what happens on the court. That’s how Rafa feels. He is dealing with the business of getting back to his best. I would rather focus on Rafa and read reasonable observations from rational people, rather than dwelling on the miserable ramblings of the haters.

      I am just happy to see the real Rafa back on the court. I look forward to Barcelona and hope Rafa does even better there!

  47. Yes, I think Rafa is right where he wants to be! We know that Rafa doesn’t like to be considered the favorite. He usually has to defuse the pressure coming into the clay season. This time he’s somewhat under the radar, given his struggles recently. But those who know Rafa, will realize that he is more comfortable where he is right now. He said it himself – I am not the favorite for nothing! So he can just focus on getting into his best form and let Novak have the spotlight on him and all the pressure of supposedly being the favorite.

    For myself, the one who is still the favorite and will be as long as he is the reigning champ, is still Rafa! But I am glad that Rafa is okay with being right where he is and won’t stress and maybe even will be happy that he is not considered the favorite.

  48. The silliest post from a gloating Nole fan

    Hmmmm, Interesting fact to prove domination:

    – Nole 13845

    Federer 8385

    Nadal 5435

    Total 13810

    So who would win if Fed and Nadal played doubles against Nole?

    • If he is so dominant, why does he have a losing H2H to Grandpa Federer? Also, easy to dominate when your closest rival, Rafa, has been off the tour for 6 months with injury and is slowly working his way back into it. The rest? Please.

      Make the most of your good fortune, Nole!

    • Another thing, Rafa’s points are over a six-months period, Novak’s and Fed’s are over 12 months. Ah well, if you’re desperate to prove dominance you will gloss over such detail.

      Acording to Bodo, Rafa is only keeping the seat on the King of Clay throne warm for Novak.

      http://espn.go.com/tennis/story/_/id/12722317/monte-carlo-masters-novak-djokovic-contenders

      “It’s hard to avoid cliché when you’re working with a title like “King of Clay,” so let’s just roll with it. The throne on which said king Rafael Nadal sat as recently as last June is now a bun-warmer for Novak Djokovic.”

      I rest.

    • This reminds me of how Novak fans were bragging that Rafa would never beat him again after his seventh straight loss at the 2012 AO. I will always remember how one Novak fan on a tennis site asked me what I did not understand about the number ZERO! I told him that you never say never in this sport. I told him that Rafa found the answers in that epic length final at the AO and would implement them the next time he faced Novak! We all know what happened next!

      Novak fans want to celebrate prematurely. Their guy has a huge lead in points as #1. So let them enjoy it. But we know that Rafa is not going anywhere. He is the one player who can challenge Novak.

      So I say let them enjoy their fantasies and delusions of grandeur. They have done it before when Novak had that string of wins against Rafa. But since 2012, Rafa has gotten the better of him and most importantly, in the slams!

  49. there is one thing that none of these experts want to talk about and it is concerning the way Novak wins on clay…how can anyone be considered the next King of Clay only based on the fact that he is successful in beating Rafa at his 50-60%? Nole lost a set to Berdy for God’s sake! You all remember what had been done to Rafa throughout his career if he happened to lose more than 3 games on clay, let alone losing a set! It immediately made news! Now we have Novak winning over Rafa who is still trying to reach his 80% (which BTW I find enough for Rafa to beat them all on clay, including mighty Novak!) If Berdy were not the mental midget he sadly is, he would have had the MC trophy in his hands…

    Therefore I firmly believe hat Novak is nowhere near to dethrone the King of Clay…we will see how the RG will unwrap… but I bet it will be an interesting one…

    I am not the one who tends to take only positives and to be overly optimistic…on the contrary, I try to see things in a realistic way…and what I saw in 2015 MC is:

    1. Rafa played way better than this time last year
    2. Rafa has a new racquet which he is still getting accustomed with, but he seems to be doing a good job on it
    3. Rafa is way more confident than he was in Miami or the same time last year…
    4. Rafa’s motivation increases when he is not expected to win…sometimes I think that Rafa loves being downplayed and written off to be able to prove those silly doubters wrong…
    5. Rafa needs to work more on his form, his mental strength (which will come with more victories and more match play) and needs more going to the net…he is usually successful with it and it will allow him winning some easy points and save energy…players will do anything to avoid playing long points with Rafa…so Rafa needs to be well prepared to chase down those drop shots…

    Rafa is going in the right direction…and whoever considers Fed to be a threat to Rafa on RG clay is being delusional…Nole is a threat if Rafa is not close to 100%…but I know that Team Rafa will do anything, all they can, to get him prepared for RG 2015…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Vamos Rafa!

    • Mark my words, if Novak wins RG 2015 (which he will not), Bodo and the desperate Novak fans will crown him the new King of Clay. Totally outrageous of course bearing in mind that would be his first and only RG compared to Rafa’s 9. Remember how some of his fans crowned Novak the new King of clay when he won his first MC crown?

      If Rafa had beaten Novak at MC 2015 Novak’s fans would have said Novak was keeping his powder dry for the big prize, RG 2015. Apparently, (according to Novak fans) Novak lost RG 2015 because he was ill. He lost the year before because Rafa used gamesmanship, and the year before that because of the weather. Excuses, excuses. Funny how Fedfans jump on Rafa for so called injury excuses and say zip about Novak’s excuse for not cutting it at RG.

      • chloro,

        Too funny! Don’t you love how that works? As far as the likes of Bodo, the guy has never been a fan of Rafa and hasn’t been shy about expressing it. It’s hilarious that even up to just two or three years ago, Bodo was using that old cliché about Rafa being a one-dimensional clay court player! Yet now he is ready to dethrone him.

        This is why I am not reading garbage like that on the blogosphere. I want to just enjoy Rafa’s resurgence and hope that he continues to play well in Barcelona. Haters are always gonna hate.

        I seem to recall someone on TT insisting maybe one or two years ago that Novak was “saving” himself for RG! I think it was chr18. I believe it was after Novak failed to win either Madrid or Rome leading up to RG. Many of us jumped all over that theory.

        So should Rafa fans now say that Rafa is saving himself for RG? 🙂

  50. I am picking Rafa to win, losing 8-10 games. I like to start off a bit conservatively.

    The thing with Gulbis is that one never knows when he will wake up and decide to play tennis again. But for now I can’t pick him to win anything.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.




Skip to toolbar