Monte-Carlo SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Federer, Wawrinka vs. Ferrer

Fed3Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer survived to set up a blockbuster semifinal on Saturday in Monte-Carlo. Meanwhile, David Ferrer is back in action one day after upsetting Rafael Nadal as the Spaniard is set to face Stanislas Wawrinka.

(4) Roger Federer vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Federer and Djokovic will be facing each other for 34th time in their careers when they collide in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday afternoon. Djokovic has a chance to even his head-to-head record against Federer for the first time in his career. The 32-year-old Swiss leads the series 17-16, but Djokovic has won four of their last five encounters and 10 of their last 14. They have dueled twice this season; Federer prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the Dubai semis before Djokovic scored a 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) victory in the Indian Wells title match.

Both players bounced back from one-set deficits on Saturday. Federer overcame Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-1 and Djokovic stopped a red-hot Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 4-6, 6-3, 6-1. Djokovic is the defending champion of this event, having dethroned Rafael Nadal in last year’s final. Federer is looking for his first Monte-Carlo title after finishing runner-up on three previous occasions (all to Nadal). Longer rallies favor the world No. 2 in this matchup and his ability to close them out with his clicking down-the-line backhand may be the difference.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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(6) David Ferrer vs. (3) Stanislas Wawrinka

Ferrer and Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 7-5 in Ferrer’s favor and he has won five of their seven previous clay-court encounters. Wawrinka, however, has won their two most recent meetings; 6-1, 6-4 in the 2013 Oeiras title match and 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-1 at the World Tour Finals last fall.

Both players have plenty of momentum this season. Ferrer improved to 22-6 with his second-ever win over Nadal on clay via a 7-6(1), 6-4 decision on Friday. That was preceded by straight-set scalps of Jeremy Chardy and Grigor Dimitrov. Wawrinka, the Australian Open champion, had little trouble with Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic in addition to a walkover past Nicolas Almagro. It’s often difficult to recover emotionally after a huge win, but Ferrer has more than enough experience to do so. Furthermore, clay should once again help him withstand Wawrinka’s superior firepower.

Pick: Ferrer in 3

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57 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Federer, Wawrinka vs. Ferrer

  1. Howard Bryant @hbryant42

    Note to people who get upset when we mention Rafa injuries. They aren’t excuses. Djokovic is hurt. Fed is playing really well, too.
    3:47 PM – 19 Apr 2014

    • ^^^hahaha! This is a gem. So this hounding of Rafa is not urban legend, we Rafans are not paranoid afterall…………….

  2. snowdevil says:
    April 19, 2014 at 3:25 pm
    “Sick of overhyping Stan? What’s the problem? That he’s drawing attention away from your beloved Rafa? He’s getting praised for winning tennis matches. It’s my understanding that he’s beaten all his opponents to reach the final of MC, including Rafa’s current vanquisher.””
    He did not beat Almagro, he got a WO; same as he got a WO from Pospisil and a Ret from Golubev in Australia.

  3. Djokovic: Didn’t want to pull out b/c then ppl start talking different things about me & my withdraws & so forth. That was the main reason.

  4. RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Djokovic: Didn’t want to pull out b/c then ppl start talking different things about me & my withdraws & so forth. That was the main reason.”

  5. RT @SI_BTBaseline: “Those darn no-name Swiss! RT @ChrisSkelton87 All of Djokovic’s losses since the US Open have come against Swiss men.”

  6. Nick Lester ‏@nicklester 35m
    Djokovic says injury has been present for 10 days,been having injections,says no rupture and no surgery required,says will rest until heals.

  7. I really think then it was a very bad decision of Nole’s team, particularly BB to let him play with the wrist injury! It’s wrong due to many reasons but mostly due to the fact that he aims at wining RG. So they must have been blind enough to think that Nole could win this MC being on painkillers?! This only lead to aggravating a serious injury which is completely idiotic. How irresponsible and stupid of Nole’s team…

    It’s scary to me when players get injured. I have lived with so many of Rafa’s injuries that whenever that happens to any player I feel so sad. I hope Nole does not get punished for the stupid decision he and his team have made…

    • ^^Puts into perspective BB’s tacky, gleeful tweet after Rafa lost, especially if, as Djokovic says, he already was injured. So BB was just taking pleasure in Rafa’s loss. At the time I thought he was happy Rafa lost because it meant the one person who could derail his charge’s prospects was out. Now we know he (Djokovic) was out already.

  8. I assume that Novak’s team thought that he could play through this injury. It’s not an exact science. He looked good in his previous matches and didn’t seem to be in pain. So much so, that the faker stuff was trotted out again as usual.

    It just caught up with him in the semifinal. That can happy to anyone. It’s easy to sit back in your chair at home and criticize the people around a player. But we don’t know all the facts. I am sure his team did not want to have him aggravate the injury.

    Many players and their teams have to make these kinds of decisions. I don’t like to question Rafa’s team and will not question Novak’s team.

  9. No, Nole was greedy…the whole team thought he could win and then rest for a week and heal…but GGL did damage. Nobody foresaw that GGL would fight that hard…Rafa’s chronic knee injury can by no means be compared with this one! Rafa skipped Wimby due to knee injury, and yet there were doubters all over the place…Nole could have skipped MC…

    Sometimes you have to give up on something in order to gain…Nole was not willing to give up on his second MC title. And if the argument is that he was not that much injured in the first place than he should just admit that he was outplayed by Fed and should stop talking about his injury. If you decide to play injured than say so. Nole did not even mention it until the semis…

    • I lost faith in Nole’s pronouncements about his injuries a long time ago. I’m fairly convinced he was not carrying a serious injury at the start of the match. The wincing didn’t start until the 9th game 1st set when he failed to convert a BP on Roger’s serve. The face pulling then began in real earnest when Roger went on to break Nole’s serve after he had been 40:0 up. Same old pattern we have seen so often.

      His reason for not retiring also speaks volumes: he knew people would question how serious the injury actually was and he didn’t want to be on the receiving end of the inevitable opprobrium which would have followed. It’s one thing to finish a match after picking up an injury during the course of it: an entirely different matter to embark on a match with an undiagnosed wrist problem.

      Should the injury prove to be serious, and aggravated further because he played on, then the blame will be laid at the feet of cynical people like myself.

      • I tend to agree with you…I also think the injury is not that serious at all…Nole is just tired from playing all along and wining two big titles on the way…I didn’t see any worries in his camp…I did not see worried face when watching Nole’s post match interview…and what is all this nonsense that he will not play tennis for some time: he was not scheduled to play next week anyway…Fed’s victory should not be diminished…Nole will be fine…

      • ed251137 says: April 19, 2014 at 9:48 pm

        Agree. Especially when his own fans tell the whole world that he tanked his match in Rome to (a) not reveal his arsenal of top drawer shots to Rafa pre RG (b) to rest for RG.

        I am inclined to take his fans’ word, they know him best after all.

        And should the injury prove to be serious, the blame will not be laid at your feet, it will, as it should, be laid at his coach(es)’s feet.

    • Hi there @sabsy! Good to see ya….

      I also noted Fed’s gesture, raised arms, after the victory, looked quite pleased. Reminded me of his finger wagging after he beat Djokovic at RG 2011. I get the feeling Fed is acutely aware of any losses to Djokovic hereon with respect to the H2H. And so is Djokovic for that matter……

  10. I remember Cheryl Murray on TT always giving the players the benefit of the doubt. I agreed with her then and still do. There’s no reason for Novak to fake an injury. I saw the match from late in the first set to the end. It was obvious to me that something was wrong with him. The commentators on the tennis channel remarked on how he wasn’t hitting his shots well because of the hand problem.

    I am not naïve. I have become much more cynical and skeptical as I have gotten older. If I don’t like hearing people question Rafa being injured, then I am sure not going to make that mistake when it comes to other players. That’s just as bad. There’s no question in my mind that Novak had an injury. I don’t know exactly when it started. But he was hurt in that match.

  11. I don’t question if there was an injury…something was wrong to some extent…but I am more than certain it’s nothing serious…and I expect Novak to be alive and kicking for Madrid as nothing ever happened…let’s wait and see…

  12. Fed said himself that Novak wasn’t in good shape and it was a pity for him. So if Fed believes it and doesn’t feel that it takes anything away from his victory, what’s the problem? Why the faux outrage over Novak’s injury taking away from Fed? He acknowledged that there was an injury. That’s because the players know each other better than we do.

  13. It’s not unusual at all that Novak’s pain would increase as the match wore on. If the injury is something like tendinitis, then increased pain with increased use would be the norm. In my days of practicing piano for hours, I can remember many an instance where I’d start out relatively pain free and about an hour into practice, have to stop due to excruciating pain. It’s the same with any injury that’s due to repetition. As for whether or not Novak should have played at all, there are many factors that go into those decisions and I won’t second guess his team. Aside from the health issues, the top tier players must also contend with the effect withdrawing has on the tournament, the sponsors, etc. This was a semi-final against Roger….the house was full. There are considerable professional obligations and pressures and I think Roger’s empathetic comments show how much he fully identifies with the circumstances.

    • jpacnw,

      You basically said what I have been trying to say, only much better! I did try to allude to the fact that the player and his team and doctors must make a decision based on what they know and what will be best. There is no way to be sure exactly what will happen. Many times players get injured and try to continue in the tournament. Sometimes they withdraw. We are not privy to what goes on behind closed doors.

      • @augusta08, give Ricky a break! If he defends other players it’s good I think, there aren’t a lot of posters doing that here. We need to hear other players’ perspectives as well. If Ricky plays that role until we get more Nole, Fed, Wawa, Muzz etc fans, it’s good I think.

  14. the way Novak reacted after Fed broke his serve EVERY person in this world was able to acknowledge that there was some kind of injury…I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if Novak converted on those break points he had in the first set and whether he would have given up that easily…that’s all…I still believe Novak will be just fine…

    • Federer would have won in 3, but it would have taken a lot longer. Match may have ended in retirement if Djoker had won that first set.

  15. If Nole has tendonitis and was able to play only because of a pain killing injection, this is bad news as the only cure is rest. No practise, no training, nothing.He could miss RG and Wimbles.
    I remember Andy damaging his wrist some years ago and missing both those. Huge holes at the top if that happens as JMDP also out with wrist issues, Rafa with mental probs and Andy a long way from his best too. 🙁

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