Monte-Carlo SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Tsonga

Rafael Nadal will continue his quest for a ninth Monte-Carlo after a scare against Grigor Dimitrov during quarterfinal action. Up next for Nadal is a Saturday semifinal date with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Rafael Nadal and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers when they collide in the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters semifinals on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal leads the head-to-head series 7-3, but they have faced each other only once on clay. Not surprisingly, Nadal dominated that encounter 6-0, 6-2, 6-4 in the 2011 Davis Cup semifinals at home in Spain. They most recently met at the 2012 Sony Ericsson Open, where the Spaniard prevailed 6-2, 5-7, 6-4.

Tsonga heads into this one as an obvious underdog, but he should have some semblance of confidence thanks to what has been a solid 2013 campaign. The eighth-ranked Frenchman boasts a 19-5 record, which includes a title in Marseille. He booked his spot in the last four this week by dismissing Nikolay Davydenko, Jurgen Melzer, and Stanislas Wawrinka.

Just as Tsonga endured his toughest Monte-Carlo test in the quarters (he beat Wawrinka 2-6, 6-3, 6-4), so too did Nadal. Of course, Nadal’s was far more unexpected. The world No. 5, who has won this event eight consecutive times, needed two hours and eight minutes to get past Grigor Dimitrov 6-2, 2-6, 6-4. Nadal is now 20-1 for the season, which is highlighted by triumphs in Sao Paolo, Acapulco, and Indian Wells.

“It’s an incredible challenge,” Tsonga assured. “He won eight times here. Anything I might achieve will be just a bonus for me. I know I’m going to play a player that’s a lot better than I am on clay. But I do have some weapons. I have everything to win and nothing to lose.”

Well, nothing except for the match. Opponents have lost 47 of those to the former world No. 1 in the last nine installments of the Monte-Carlo Masters, including 45 in a row since Guillermo Coria beat Nadal in 2003. Tsonga has the exact kind of game–complete with serve and forehand firepower–that can trouble Nadal, but he will not be able to execute it perfectly on the slow stuff. Having received a wakeup call on Friday, the No. 3 seed should give his opponent a clay-court lesson en route to the final.

Pick: Nadal 6-3, 6-3

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