Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are set for a rematch of their Buenos Aires showdown as they prepare to meet again on Thursday in Monte-Carlo. Third-round action will also feature Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Simon.
(5) Rafael Nadal vs. (12) Dominic Thiem
Nadal and Thiem will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the third time on clay when they clash in round three of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Thursday. Thiem was out of his league in a 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 loss at the 2014 French Open, but a more experienced and much-improved Austrian saved one match point before pulling off a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) upset earlier this season in Buenos Aires. That is one of 26 victories for Thiem this season, good for second most on the ATP World Tour behind Novak Djokovic. The 22-year-old, who is up to 14th in the rankings, has advanced this week with three-set wins over Jan-Lennard Struff and Taro Daniel.
This, of course, is where a favorable draw ends for Thiem. Even though Nadal has not been at his best in recent times, the fifth-ranked Spaniard is still an eight-time champion in Monte-Carlo (and a nine-time winner at Roland Garros among other clay-court accolades that are too numerous to name). Looking for his first triumph at this event since 2012, Nadal kicked off his campaign in style by cruising past Aljaz Bedene 6-3, 6-3 on Wednesday. Thiem has been less than 100 percent this week because of a foot problem but was able to recover from a set deficit against both Struff and Daniel. Nadal, though, will be nowhere near as generous if the No. 12 seed gets off to another slow start. Unless a completely different Thiem is on display in this one, Nadal should be able to avenge his Buenos Aires defeat.
Pick: Nadal in 2
[polldaddy poll=9384300]
(15) Gilles Simon vs. (4) Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka and Simon will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers on Thursday. The head-to-head series stands at 3-2 in favor of Wawrinka, who has won both of their previous clay-court encounters. He prevailed 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-2 at the 2012 French Open before getting the job done in much more routine 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 fashion at the same tournament last year. Simon is 2-1 against Wawrinka on hard courts after most recently coming out on top 5-7, 7-5, 6-4 at the 2014 Shanghai Masters.
Wawrinka, the 2014 Monte-Carlo champion, slumped through Indian Wells and Miami but is now back on what has to be considered his favorite surface. The fourth-ranked Swiss showed signs of a slight back problem against Philipp Kohlschreiber on Wednesday but otherwise looked good in a 7-6(2), 7-5 victory. Simon has enjoyed an extremely routine start to his week, having taken out Viktor Troicki 6-3, 6-4 and Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-3. The 18th-ranked Frenchman is still a mediocre 11-7 for the season. As long as Wawrinka is 100 percent, he is likely to give Simon another clay-court lesson.
Pick: Wawrinka in 3
[polldaddy poll=9384312]
who ya got?
no doubt i will deeply regret picking rafa but i think he will come out firing against thiem. could take him 3 sets though given his tendency to meander during matches.
also going with stan in 3
Rafa is the favorite to win MC now. Thiem is done – or he should be. And Rafa might not be at his best but he’s on his way there. Rafa in 2.
Simon in 3.
? Sascha lost to Granollers…
what are the odds?
Simon 2.60
Stan 1.44
For outright winner why do many betting sites have Federer favorite? Are they crazy? Fed 4.00, Rafa 4.33 (lol, pretty close – I have no idea) Murray 5.00, Stan 7.00, Monfils 13.00, Thiem @ 17.00
It doesn’t matter where oddsmakers put their money. They have no effect on the outcome of matches, unless they fix matches.
There’s a first time for everyone
Fed has a great chance to win mc. As good or better as anyone left in the draw.
We’ll see how he does versus this guy:
https://vine.co/v/iT2AQ1xFiag
I agree with hawkeye regarding Fed’s chances here now that Novak is out.
Hope Rafa does it in 2! But if it goes to three it’s still good for Rafa building his fitness as long as he wins! I did not see Rafa playing his first match but I hope he improves further!
Vamos Champ!
Rafa in three and Stanimal in straights
Problem is this is a completely different nadal that’s won so many Monte Carlo titles in the past.
That said, look for Stan in two over Simon.
as for the tenngrand poll, more votes for Simon in 3 than Stan in 3 ?
I did get to see the second set of Rafa’s match on the replay. I think he did enough to get the win. He will need to play better against Thiem. I do think that Rafa will get the win in 2 or 3 sets.
I am going with Stan in 3 over Simon.
Keep your mind focused, stay confident, be strong and enjoy the game, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cf_O1owWIAA_dg3.jpg
ha! bedene said yesterday that rafa’s forehand used to be great but now is weak…..(paraphrase..but meaning the same..)
Nadal gets broken already fk me
back on serve
Not for long.
Little depth on Rafa’s shots. As predicted.
#NothingNew
I just started watching. They are on serve.
barely
This game is going on forever.
Rafa can’t hold and Thiem can’t get the break
. Thiem looks like he means business.
Finally! Rafa holds.
Rafa held at 5-4 and the 15+ minute game looked like this:
0:15, 15:15, 15:30, 15:40BP, 30:40BP, 40:40, 40:ABP, 40:40, 40:ABP, 40:40, A:40, 40:40, 40:ABP, 40:40, A:40, 40:40, 40:ABP, 40:40, A:40
This has to be wearing Thiem down. Rafa is a tough man ?
That last game just sent my blood pressure sky high.
Nadal please finish this set now!
I dont think I can endure a TB!!!!!!!!!!
At 40-30 on Thiem’s serve, Rafa had good control of the point and then inexplicably (or “explicably” IMO) hits a very short ball and loses the point.
This is the difference between today’s Rafa and the one that won so many MC titles.
Soooooo short from Rafa. Very little aggression.
Switching off.
This is poor tennis IMO.
Nadal has not been on champ level for two years
Wawa wins in two.
Congrats to Me!
Wawa never does well in Miami/IW. Means zero to his clay performance
#Hawkstradamus
I can’t believe that I picked Stan in 3 sets! That was a beatdown! It looks like Stan may be finally getting into some decent form.
Wonder who Stan is cheering for in this match?
Or tennis is far from his mind — enjoying lunch with Donna?
Thiem
My picking Simon was a bias – I know their h2h. Me hoping…
Did you watch Stan/Simon match? I didn’t. But I thought Stan showed some Stanimal vs Kohlschreiber. Rafa v Stan should be dynOhmite!
Set 1 stats:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CgAaww8W4AEwhj4.jpg
🙂
The stat that just sticks out is Thiem going 1 for 16 on break point chances.
Rafa did nothing with two break chances, but the pressure of failing to convert all those break points ultimately got to Thiem. I could feel it coming. Double faulting away the set.
Rafa did well to fight off all those break points. But I don’t think Thiem is going away.
#WinningByVirtualDefault
Yes this is true. After playing so well, Thiem just gifted away the set.
Here we go.
0-30
0-40
Rafa has gone off the boil.
Now Thiem gets the break. That was a dreadful game from Rafa.
Rafa manages to break back.
Can’t see the match but was following the live score. Can’t believe Rafa facing so many break points! Honestly, I did not expect him to win the first set but he somehow managed…it must be hard to watch this…
C’mon Rafa! Be yourself! Where did the King of Clay disappear??
Back on serve now…
Rafa gets the break!
Come on Rafa! Serve it out!
Rafa wins!
Vamoooooooooooooooooooooooooos!
Wow! Just wow! I am so proud of Rafa fighting like a lion out there!
Augusta please share the link for this match when you get the chance, I would love to see it!
Vamos Champ!
Yeeahh, go Nadal, nicely done !
The match stats:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CgAk9xtWwAAJnx2.jpg
🙂 🙂
????
The story of this match was the missed break point chances. Rafa deserves credit for that. I saw some flashes of vintage Rafa in this match.
Rafa will play Stan next. I think he’s going to have to play better against him. But a win is a win is a win!
Thiem was done after the first
OMG!
RT Pau Ferragut (a Spanish journalist): ¤¤ Nadal: “I’m really happy. I lost against Thiem in Buenos Aires and it’s a very important win to gain confidence this week in MonteCarlo”.¤¤
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I hadn’t read your comment above when I posted at 3,10pm
Not sure how long Flash Score has these highlights up. Stan v Simon.
http://www.flashscore.com/match/AJmfKExn/#video
You lot are hard taskmasters. I didn’t see the 2nd set (my elderly dog had been desperate to go out for a pee since half way through the first set) but I cant believe how tough you are all being on Rafa. Thiem was never going to be a pushover and has already established his credentials on clay including his win over Nadal in Argentina.
This win was hugely signifIcant for Rafa’s confidence going forward for the rest of the clay season.
ed, hence my OMG. 🙂
To Natashao:
Rafa vs Dominic Tiem /FULL MATCH
Part 1 & 2
https://rutube.ru/video/e2d1d3e4b8c24cd68ac96bcc12e79d03/
https://rutube.ru/video/e914ea0b62fd1fb8b91e8d19498c9170/
See Part 3 in Reply.
Part 3:
https://rutube.ru/video/3f723f4e8d885b6d252abe311b3ea9b1/
THANK YOU! ❤️
Qutes from Rafa’s post-match interviews:
“I think I played a good match,” said Nadal. “In terms of level of tennis, it was great, I think. In terms of fighting spirit and attitude and being ready to accept the mistakes, the good points, the tough moments, it was similar to the way that I played in Indian Wells.
“That was a great continuation against a very tough player. I think he played a great match, too. Was a very good victory for me. Very happy for that.
“The best thing is he didn’t play badly on the break points. It was more that I played well on the break points than he played bad.
“So happy for that because that means that I was ready to find and make the right decisions in the most important moments. I was able to fight all the moments. I never gave up in all these tough moments that I had in the first set.”
http://montecarlotennismasters.com/nadal-fends-off-thiem/?lang=en
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I don’t think it’s hard to analyze rafa’s match. Thiem was going for his shots in the first set, being very aggressive and getting good court positioning. He seemed to know exactly what to do. Rafa was hanging in there, but getting out hit at times with Thiem’s firepower.
The key for Rafa was fighting off all those break points. I think the inability to convert so many break chances got to Thiem mentally and that’s why he broke down and double faulted away the first set.
I thought Rafa played much better in the second set. That’s where he unleashed some vintage shots. I don’t think Thiem had the belief after losing the first set. I think he was still thinking about al those missed break chances.
Rafa was not at his best, but he kept it together and managed to get the win against a tough opponent in straight sets. That can only help him going up against Stan.
Good, fair analysis…. Rafa’s winning these matches against tough opponent and he is not not even close to his best!! He is playing better and better and he looks poised to finish the tournament with a bang!
Vamos! Never in doubt this result.
When rafa’s playing well, his game is too much for Stan. Rafa’s game just overwhelms stan’s and that’s how it has always been.
Some haters claimed Rafa would have surely lost the AO final even if he was not injured coz Stan was playing at another level. Total crap…. Rafa’s game just imposes itself on stan and the latter can never play the way he wants to. It is easier for him to impose his game against Djokovic.
Rafa’s the toughest match up for Stan, then it is roger and finally Novak.
This is surely Rafa’s title to lose now. I would be very surprised if he loses.
He is the clear favourite in the semi but Murray has potential and I remember how he raised his level in the MC 2009 semi against Rafa and also in the 2011 semi…
Rafa should be able to get this and then the final would be easy I guess
I agree about Rafa being able to impose his game against Stan. That is exactly what Rafa did in this match. Stan came out trying to over power Rafa. But Rafa had the answers and took Stan out of his game.
Stan’s obvious frustration when he broke his racket said it all.
I think Murray will be ready for Rafa. He has been able to do well against him in the past. So I don’t expect this to be that easy. But Rafa played better against Stan and will cone out and play even better against Murray.
This title is on rafa’s racket. It’s his to lose. I don’t think I have to say what it would mean for Rafa to win MC.
I aggree about that AO2014 final. Rafa was playing very well despite his palm blister the whole AO before the final. He was dealt a tough draw there – Monfils, Kei, Dimi, Fed before the final. He only lost a set to Dimi, with his racket almost flown off his hand due to his blister.
No doubt Stan was playing well and hitting hard from both wings, but a fit and healthy Rafa would be able to chase anything down. Also, Rafa himself could play his aggressive tennis vs Stan, just like how he played vs Monfils there. Stan not known to be a good ROS or a good retriever, so Rafa could make him hit one more shot and moved him around. His SHBH was a liability vs Rafa’s topspin FH on the higher bounce AO surface.
The British commies are bigging up Murray’s win over Raonic and playing down Rafa’s win over Stan saying Stan was out of sorts. The fact is, Raonic had groin injury during his match yesterday and it was obvious he couldn’t serve well and had problems moving.
Stan knew from the 4th game that he was facing someone close to the Rafa we know that’s why he broke his racquet with frustration. He knows he stands no chance against the real Rafa.
Raonic suffered a groin injury during his Australian Open SF against Murray. He was off the tour for six weeks before the IW Masters. Probably he hasn’t recovered properly yet.
adductor
Nadal has been way more impressive than Muzz
By far.
True but Stan did make way too many errors. Unacceptable against a guy like Rafa who is playing well on his best surface. Also some early mistakes from Stan kinda dropped his spirits it seemed. Like for example at 1-1 0-15 Stan he crushed a forehand Rafa barely got it then he missed an easy smash and lost the next three points and every game the rest of the set. Not good mentally from Stan. Obviously Rafa played well and deserved it and was better all around and I’m not saying that one smash was huge but it would’ve helped if he had a 0-30 lead with some momentum and maybe got an early break.
Stan had to redline his game to have a chance against Rafa hence all the errors. Note that he was trying to hit his BH DTL instead of going CC to Rafa’s FH, in order to break away from the SHBH vs topspin FH disadvantage. He had some success initially but once Rafa figured it out, Stan couldnt do that often as Rafa was ready for it and redirected the shot again and again to Stan’s BH forcing him to go outwide and then went CC.
As I mentioned before, the SHBH vs Rafa’s topspin FH on clay will always be a disadvantage, its a matter of whether Rafa could control the rally and direct the shot time and again to opponent’s BH.
Thiem and Stan have great FHs, though not as great as Fed’s at his peak; they may have more solid SHBH; a Rafa at his peak would dispatch them more readily than he would Fed. Of course Rafa is no longer at his peak now so has to fight harder, still he could beat them on this surface when he’s playing well.
Making mistakes is not an excuse. All last year, Rafa was making too many mistakes and losing I don’t remember anyone giving him any concessions for losing by making too many mistakes.
My thinking is Rafa has significantly improved his movement in the last couple of months…the clay makes it even easier for him to move freely and successfully defend when he is pushed against the wall…he was able to defend in both of his matches not allowing guality opponents to dictate the points…that is crucial for Rafa’s game…Andy as well will not be allowed to dictate the points the way he was able in that Madrid final against Rafa…this Rafa is moving better, serving better and hitting with more precision than Rafa of 2015…
having said that, the match will sure be interesting and I will not be able to see it… 🙁 I hope my boy hits well and with confidence, and produces some King of Clay tennis!
Vamos Champ!
Rafa has improved greatly but still not at 100% peak. He is moving a lot better and timing the ball well. When he lost to Djoker in Doha, he was always at the wrong place at the wrong time not able to read where Djoker was going next but that aspect is greatly improved.
Rafa should know by now that when he is serving for the set or match his opponents go for broke and usually succeed in breaking him. He needs to have a plan for that.