Monte-Carlo R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Seppi, Ferrer vs. Dimitrov

Rafa 3Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer are one round away from a potential all-Spanish quarterfinal clash in Monte-Carlo. They first have to get past Andreas Seppi and Grigor Dimitrov, respectively, on Thursday.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Andreas Seppi

According to the top-rated sportsbook at MyTopSportsbooks.com, Nadal is an overwhelming -1000 favorite to beat Seppi 2-0 in sets on Thursday afternoon during third-round action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. And why not? The head-to-head series stands at 4-1 in Nadal’s favor, with Seppi’s lone win coming via a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 decision on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam in 2008. On clay, however, it has mostly been one-way traffic. Nadal is 3-0 on the surface against the Italian and 8-1 in total sets, surrendering just one back in 2005 during Davis Cup action on the road in Italy. These two competitors have not faced each other since the summer of 2009 in Cincinnati, where Nadal survived 7-6(4), 7-6(3).

It has already been a stellar week for Seppi, who took out Mikhail Youzhny and Pablo Andujar to reach this stage of the tournament while delivering an amazing tweener against Youzhny. The world No. 35, though, is still just 7-9 this season. Nadal improved to 22-2 for his 2014 campaign after defeating Teymuraz Gabashvili 6-4, 6-1 on Wednesday. The top-ranked Spaniard started slow, trailing by a break in the first set–and he even had to save break points to prevent going down two breaks–before finding his range. Nadal, an eight-time champion of this event, should come out in far more comfortable fashion and refuse to give Seppi any openings.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games

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(12) Grigor Dimitrov vs. (6) David Ferrer

Not unlike the past history in Nadal vs. Seppi, Dimitrov’s one victory over Ferrer in multiple tries came on an indoor hard court. The Bulgarian prevailed 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 in last fall’s Stockholm title match but he still trails the head-to-head series 3-1. Ferrer has gotten the job done twice on outdoor hard courts and once on clay. They faced each other on the slow stuff in the 2012 Bastad semifinals, with the Spaniard coming out on top 6-3, 7-5.

Ferrer may be slowing down just a bit at 32 years old, but he is still sixth in the world and he is 20-6 for the season after blowing out Jeremy Chardy 6-3, 6-0 on Tuesday. The No. 6 seed is looking for his second clay-court title in 2014, having previously lifted the winner’s trophy in Buenos Aires. Dimitrov has advanced to the last 16 with three-set scalps of Marcel Granollers and Albert Ramos. The 14th-ranked Bulgarian is an impressive 16-5 for the year, but this third Spaniard in succession for Dimitrov may not be as generous as the first two. If the underdog is at all fatigued, Ferrer will jump all over him–especially on clay.

Pick: Ferrer in 2

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114 Comments on Monte-Carlo R3 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Seppi, Ferrer vs. Dimitrov

  1. I like Rafa in two sets against Seppi. I expect him to come out playing even better now that he got his game going.

    As far as Ferrer/Dimitrov, I think this could go three sets, but Ferrer should get the win.

  2. I am going to try and stay awake until Rafa’s match. Play starts at 1:30 am my time, so hopefully the match before his won’t be too long. I would really like to see him live.

    Go get ’em, Rafa!

  3. ^^I went to bed at about 7 pm, NNY7. Now getting up at 1:30 am to watch a night of what should prove to be great tennis. I’ll be awake with you.

  4. jpacnw,

    My fellow west coast buddy! Now why didn’t I think of that? Probably because it’s impossible for me to go to sleep that early. But I am glad that you got some rest. At least one of us will be watching the match with both eyes open! 🙂

  5. RT @TennisTV: “Nico #Almagro has withdrawn from the #MonteCarloRolexMasters so #Wawrinka is through. #tennis”

  6. Good stuff from Rafa in this match! He’s come out very sharp, moving around the court extremely well. Up two breaks!

    • Yes of course, thats what i was talking about. We all know he can play this way! Seppi is definitely better player than Montanes, at least Seppi holds his ground at the baseline; Montanes played so far behind the baseline so letting Novak dictate points easily

  7. Rafa has won more clay court tournaments than ALL of the clay court tourneys won by the rest of the Top ten combined……………

  8. I think he finds Seppi a little bit boring, still he shouldn’t lose concentration in a match like this.

    6/10

    Vamos Rafa!

  9. Was watching a full match highlight of Rome 2005 final. Man.. Coria’s movement on the clay looked so so smooth!! Don’t see any player with that kind of a movement nowadays.

  10. Unlike hard courts Rafa on clay does not need to give 100% to beat his early rounds opponents…I don’t blame him for losing focus at some point…Seppi indeed played a slow and rather boring match, but we all know Rafa likes Seppi and he never wants to demolish him…he always donates games to the Italian…if you watched the match carefully you could notice that Rafa was broken due to his unusual and I would call them “risk taking” errors almost as he wanted to test himself if he could paint the lines more often, which was completely unnecessary against this Seppi…in any case, it ain’t gonna be easy for Rafa from now on…he needs to be at least well rested for Ferrer and his LONG grueling points…and there I am almost certain will be well rested and highly motivated Wawa waiting in the semis…
    Vamos Rafa!

  11. Wrong way to play Novak, this Busta guy. Dont give Novak pace to work with, Novak likes all these hard hitting, thats why Fed and Murray do better vs Novak than most players do. I actually like the way Murray handles Novak, giving him off pace balls to throw Novak off his rhythm. Fed too with his slices and volleying. Novak feels most comfortable with hard hitting guys.

      • Yep and thats what i mean by being ruthless and killing your opponent asap, not wasting energy unnecessarily. No Djoker is showing the way how this is done!

      • Thats nothing new, its his trademark. Rafa also commented on that, about how well Novak could change direction. I do hope Berdych is fine and be Novak’s next opponent. Berdych has the fire power to hit deep penetrating shots and not allow Novak time to push him around. Berdych also has his big serves to help him up. Berdych usually plays some one two punches and so can avoid engaging in long rallies with Novak.

  12. Ahem, let’s not forget, 12 months ago, Carreno-Busta was #256……………..

    Having said that, I am sure Novak will be delighted with his tournament so far.

  13. Carrena-Busta is out of his depth. That’s the long and short of it.

    What nats says about Rafa not wanting to humiliate Seppi makes sense. Rafa definitely eased off a bit in the 2nd set because he knew the result wasn’t in question.

    You’d think Djoker would give Carreno-Busta some crumbs to encourage him.

      • That was a reality check for C-B. It highlights what an extraordinary era was ushered in when a group of youngsters were snapping at the heels of TMF while still teenagers.

      • For what it’s worth, I don’t think it had anything to do with Rafa not wanting to humiliate Seppi. When he’s out there on court playing, it doesn’t matter if it’s his close friend Ferrer or whoever. Rafa doesn’t give slack to anyone.

        I think it’s more likely that Rafa just lost some focus and concentration. The match wasn’t really competitive and there was never any doubt that he would prevail. So it’s not that surprising to see Rafa get a little sloppy at that point. He came back and broke Seppi right back. That says it all.

    • Djoker wont, he’s ruthless and he knows he needs to be ruthless to succeed. He knows he needs all the energy that he can have to beat the top guys at the business end.

  14. If Novak plays like this against Federer, Berdych orTsonga then we are talking. He can do what he likes against a fatigued Montanes or Carreno-Busta.

  15. Even if Berdy wins this, would not surprise me in the least bit if he hands Novak a w/o, he looks spent…………

  16. Berdych gets a time violation warning and the commies sympathise with him. If it was Rafa, they would be going on and on about how he was at fault……………..

    • Oh no, now they complain when Rafa gets a warning. Today Mark Petchey said the even though Rafa does take long the umpires should remember that he is the biggest star tennis has got.

  17. Here we go again:

    RT @scambers73: “Rafa Nadal has an unbelievable record on clay but Novak Djokovic is closing the gap. Could this be his year in Paris? ”

    You can almost touch the panting in that statement…………..

    • No Djoker closing the gap is nothing unusual as Rafa won’t be at his peak on clay forever. Rafa is coming down from his peak and Novak is reaching his or he’s already there and trying to sustain that for a while. Rafa at his peak on clay is definitely more scary than this No Djoker, as Rafa was beating the veterans, his peers, the great Roger Federer, and some other up and comers all the same on clay many times with scores of 6-1, or 6-0.

      I think Rafa, Fed and even Stan or Berdych when playing well will give this No Djoker stern tests. They all have enough weapons to deal with No Djoker, the most important thing is never give him pace to work with and plays with all sorts of varieties to keep him guessing and throw him off his rhythm. He’s too comfortable controlling points from the baseline, camping at the centre of the baseline and controlling from both wings, changing direction as and when he pleases. Rafa has to put in more varieties in his game if he meets Novak here, hard hitting is not going to work against No Djoker.

  18. Rafa’s post match presser:
    “I think today I played a little bit better than yesterday,” assessed Nadal. “For a long time I was playing at a good level, I think, changing directions very well and playing with the right intensity. At 4-1 in the second set I stopped a little bit with my legs. Seppi is a player that takes the ball early. If you are not playing from inside, you are in big trouble. I lost a little intensity, made a few mistakes. I was lucky to have the break back again.”

  19. I am always very skeptical when I see players giving breadsticks anf bagels these days, not so sure if it says more about the player rather than the opponent!

    But saying that, i think the top four are all playinf well…they have not lost a set yet. Rafa should improve as the tourney goes. Last year he played worst agionst a hot Ferrer and still came out on top…..that was the worst match I had ever seen Rafa play, he was REALLY struggling! Ferrer will give him a fight but I belive Rafa will come thru, BUT HE NEEDS TO WORK ON THOSE SERVES!

    • I agree about Rafa’s assessment. He really does know exactly what goes on in his matches, what he does well and at times what he does not. Now that I have finally watched the match after giving up and going to sleep a little after 4:00 am, I am pleased that Rafa played much better. He was more aggressive, moving forward into the court to dictate points. He did let up in that second set when Seppi broke back. But there was no doubt that Rafa would come back and break him.

      During this match, Rafa’s second serve points won did go up. He ended the match with 40% second serves won percentage. That’s going to have to improve as he now heads into the crucial part of this tournament. The other stat that stood out was something like 15 forehand winners to zero backhand winners. He needs that backhand to be firing.

      I told myself after Rafa’s match not to over-analyze or overthink things. I decided to wait and see how he looked against Seppi. He looked much more comfortable and confident. He knows exactly what to expect against Ferrer. I did see a bit of Ferrer/Dimitrov. I had the latter part of the first set on my recording. Ferrer was pounding the ball and Dimitrov was trying to hang in there. It was a tight first set, but Ferrer was too much for Dimitrov.

  20. Djokovic has not had a decent workout all week which will surely put him at a disadvantage. GGL will hit his head on the ceiling tomorrow and come down to earth after enjoying an amazing run in the past two weeks.

    #PeterPrincipleAtWork

  21. GGL stands no chance against Nole…another easy training session for Nole…sometimes I wonder how is it possible for someone to be so lucky with draws…true Nole is playing really well but still…lucky loser?! unbelievable…and now GGL instead of Berdy…wow…it wouldn’t surprise me to see Tsonga beats Fed and then gives Nole a walkover…

  22. RT @dougrobson: “Per sports marketing firm Repucom, David Ferrer is 3rd (45%) behind Federer (54%) and Nadal (50%) in U.S. awareness level. Really?”

    Now I understand why Djoker hired BB…………..

    #ReflectedGlory

  23. One can understand why Djoker gets so frustrated: no matter how hard he tries, and try he does, he never seems to make much headway in the popularity stakes outside his native Serbia.

  24. I don’t know if Novak will be put at a disadvantage. That remains to be seen. In the past that has happened. We will have to wait and see what happens with Fed. I have no doubt that these two will be meeting in the semifinals. That will be the first decent player Novak will face.

    I happened to have Fed’s match with Rosol on my recording after Rafa/Seppi and Ferrer/Dimitrov. I was surprised to see Rosol get the break in the first set when Fed double faulted. That first set was more competitive than I thought it would be.

    I think the top four seeds are going to make it to the semifinals.

    • Ricky today@1.41am

      Really enjoy your contributions to those fun roundtable discussions at Sports Illustrated.
      I worked at TimeLife in the SI promotions department in the late 60s. Lots of play: not much work!

      #ThoseWereTheDays

      • I second these thoughts. I found it enjoyable. A good read! I’d like to see more of these discussions at SI. Nice to get different opinions from you and others.

  25. Discussion at SI
    ¤¤ Wawrinka’s big win: Trend or fluke?

    Nguyen: Let’s start with the ATP side of things. Do you guys really buy into this idea that Wawrinka’s win changed the tenor of the locker room, and that the ATP B-list has been suddenly infused with belief? I’m not sure I do.

    Dimon: Of course not. Dolgopolov beat Nadal in Indian Wells (he never got enough credit for that, by the way)…¤¤

    Wow! The question is about Wawrinka but Ricky answers that Dolgopolov beat Rafa! And no word about Dolgopolov beating Wawrinka in Miami! Weird, no?

    • lol…the question mentions wawrinka , but it is not about wawrinka actually ! it was about the sudden infusion of belief in the ‘ATP B-list’ !

      Anyway, I also think nothing much has changed.

      • Wawrinka was reportedly the HOTTEST player then.
        March 12, 2014 by Ricky Dimon: ¤¤ We are well into March now and the ATP is still looking to hand its HOTTEST player his first loss of the season. Through 13 matches, Wawrinka still hasn’t suffered a loss. ¤¤

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