Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Goffin

Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a potential blockbuster semifinal in Monte-Carlo. They first have to get past Diego Schwartzman and David Goffin, respectively, in Friday’s quarterfinals.

Diego Schwartzman vs. (4) Rafael Nadal

It was a tale of two matches for Nadal as he heads into quarterfinal action at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Friday. The seventh-ranked Spaniard struggled in a 6-0, 5-7, 6-3 opening win over Kyle Edmund but picked up the pace dramatically to destroy Alexander Zverev 6-1, 6-1 on Thursday. The latter result is more along the lines of what can be expected from Nadal in Monte-Carlo, where he is 60-4 lifetime with nine titles. This week’s fourth seed is 21-5 in 2017 and 21-2 against opponents other than Roger Federer.

Up next for Nadal on Friday is a third career meeting with Schwartzman, who is 0-2 in the head-to-head series. The Argentine went down 6-2, 6-2 on the hard courts of Acapulco in 2013 and 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5 at the 2015 U.S. Open. Playing the best tennis of his life right now, Schwartzman is up to a career-high ranking of No. 41 in the world and he will climb to at least 34th next week. So far in Monte-Carlo he has taken out Bernard Tomic, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets. At just 5’7”, Schwartzman obviously cannot serve Nadal off the court and he is forced to hit shots consistently outside of his strike zone against Nadal’s heavy topspin. If nothing else, however, the underdog will make this an entertaining baseline battle.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing more than 7 games

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(10) David Goffin vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Djokovic and Goffin will be going head-to-head for the sixth time in their careers on Friday. All five of their previous encounters have gone Djokovic’s way and he is 11-1 in total sets against Goffin. Their most memorable showdown came at the 2015 Cincinnati Masters, where the Belgian led by a double-break at 3-0 in the third set and then failed to win another game in a 6-4, 2-6, 6-3 defeat. They most recently faced each other at last year’s World Tour Finals, with Goffin taking an injured Gael Monfils’ place for one match and promptly getting blown out 6-1, 6-2.

It has hardly been one-way traffic for Djokovic so far in Monte-Carlo. The 2013 and 2015 champion escaped Gilles Simon 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 after Simon served for the match and he outlasted Pablo Carreno Busta 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 on Thursday. Such struggles do not come as a significant surprise given the Serb’s lackluster form (14-3 in 2017 with only one title in Doha) and an elbow injury that forced him out of Miami. Goffin is 21-7 this season following impressive clay-court wins this week over Nicolas Almagro and Dominic Thiem. Against the very best players in the world, however, Goffin often gets overpowered or breaks down on his own serve–or both. He also clearly lacks belief against Djokovic, so an easier time at the office than he what he endured in rounds two and three should be in store for the No. 2 seed.

Pick: Djokovic in 2

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38 Comments on Monte-Carlo QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Djokovic vs. Goffin

  1. On to Goffin who must be really on a high! But as we have seen, most players crash out after defeating a big name so Goffin may have a let down tomorrow!Hopefully Rafa will not have to work too hard to be in the final and will be ready to eat for breakfast (or is it dinner) whoever emerges from the other half!

    • It is possible that Goffin could have a letdown after his big win over Novak. One can never be absolutely sure, because this win could give Goffin real belief and confidence. He certainly earned this win. How much it took out of him we won’t know until tomorrow.

      I am hoping that Rafa can capitalize on this opportunity. I am sure he will be ready for Goffin and not take him for granted.

      I don’t care about stats. Rafa won and that’s what matters. His serve percentage may go up in the next match. But it’s all about winning.

      Vamos Rafa!

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  2. On a somewhat related note, I am becoming more and more confident each tournament that Fedal will finish 2017 in the top two spots in the rankings…

  3. Diego keeping Rafa defensive and breaks again for 3-4. Would have been nice to see Rafa resist being pushed back so much but he wasn’t horrible.

  4. Very strange game from Rafa to hold for 5-4. Played some good points and finally won after three deuces. However many points he hit very short and he started sweating suddenly like crazy and the sun is down with the crowd wearing sweaters and heavy jackets.

    • Hawks..I feel strange myself when i looked at Rafa sweating like he take a bath with it!Camera showed Diego’s coach,Chela wears a thick jacket like he’s in winter season and rafa sweating non stop!…I think maybe because of the nervousness and adrenaline on high flow atm…

      • Yeah it’s a sign of his anxiety IMO. Also the cold night air doesn’t suit his play.

        However while not at his best, he managed to not let it severely affect his play although it very well may have against a much better opponent. That said, Diego punched above his weight class no doubt.

  5. Rafa plays well to get his third break to take the first set.

    Still. 18 UEs from Diego vs 13 from Rafa. A pretty high number but it didn’t really seem that way.

    Rafa was better than I thought other than the first game.

  6. Great comeback from Rafa to break for 2-0 after being down 40-0 including a stretched out wide FHDTL get winner that lands just inside the corner.

  7. Now this was Rafa’s second bad service game failing to consolidate with a double fault and three consecutive UEs to get broken to 15.

    Too cold and more than half of the crowd has left.

    Diego serving 1-2.

  8. Rafa’s fourth poor service game with lack of zip on his serve and dropping the ball short repeatedly to go down 0-40. A good serve from Rafa but Diego with a good return takes control of the point getting his third break of the match now up a break serving at 3-2.

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