Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

Three have challenged Rafael Nadal so far during this clay-court swing; three have bowed out in listless fashion. And that includes Nadal’s No. 1 clay-court rival from the 2017 season, Dominic Thiem.

Will Grigor Dimitrov fare any better? We will find out when Nadal and Dimitrov square off for the 12th time in their careers in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Saturday afternoon. Nothing is more ominous for Dimitrov than the surface under his feet, but his head-to-head history against the Spaniard also does not bode well for his chances in this one. Nadal is a dominant 10-1 lifetime, including 3-0 on clay and 3-0 last season (all three of their 2017 meetings required final sets, but they were played on hard courts).

Looking at top seed’s Monte-Carlo record would only further demoralize Dimitrov before the underdog even takes the court. Nadal is a 10-time champion and has improved to 66-4 lifetime in the principality following beatdowns of Aljaz Bedene, Karen Khachanov, and Thiem. Bedene got four games, Khachanov managed five, and Thiem–a two-time French Open semifinalist–suffered a brutal 6-0, 6-2 defeat.

Dimitrov took a much different route to the semis, needing three sets to get past Pierre-Hugues Herbert and Philipp Kohlschreiber before coming back from a 5-1 second-set deficit against David Goffin to prevail 6-4, 7-6(5) on Friday. Goffin, Dimitrov’s doubles partner this week (they withdrew from their quarterfinal match later in the day), held three set points on his own serve before collapsing. The fifth-ranked Bulgarian had been 1-4 in his last five matches prior to arriving in Monte-Carlo, but he is now a respectable 14-6 for the season overall.

“I felt I did a lot of things better than the previous days,” Dimitrov commented after defeating Goffin. “I started the match better and I served better…. There were a lot of positives from today’s match. That’s all I can say.”

But it only gets tougher–and that’s an understatement.

“For sure he’s the favorite,” the fourth seed said of Nadal. “Yes, he has a great record. Yes, he’s the best player on clay. That definitely doesn’t discourage me. That excites me to get out on Saturday and play my match; simple as that. I think one of the wrong things you can do is really focus on his side. I always said that. Whoever you play, you always [have] to focus on your end, the way you structure yourself to go out and play, be creative on the court. That’s just how it is.”

Unfortunately for Dimitrov, nothing he brings to the table will have a real impact on Saturday’s outcome. If Nadal continues to play at or even near his current clay-court level, this will be over in two quick sets.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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31 Comments on Monte-Carlo SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Dimitrov

  1. Rafa gets to meet the favorites on clay -those that could do something in RG: Thiem, Dimi, Nishi or Alex! IMO those are the best clay court players plus Novak who could possibly test Rafa.

    Dimi playing really well! Rafa made work hard but it’s all worth it! Rafa needs some rallies to get into the grove!

    Vamos Rafa!

  2. I think Rafa playing from too far back in this match compared to the match vs Thiem.

    Dimi has problem with his shoulder I heard hence not serving very well today.

  3. Just tuned in. Didn’t see the first set – score looks respectable.

    But sheesh, now Dimi can’t play his tennis at all it seems. Is he injured? Nothing in the brain bucket? A bagel to be expected, I guess. Well it’s almost over anyway.

  4. Dimi clearly impaired in the second set I would say more mentally than physically! But that’s what Rafa does to his opponents on clay. Dimi played great but very demanding first set and it took the toll!

    Vamos Rafa!

  5. Rafa knows what he needs to do.

    After finishing his match, he immediately texted to Moya: “Let’s go to hit some forehands as soon as possible!”

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DbT07pbW4AMzsEc.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DbT08cmW0AAsKcT.jpg

    During his on-court interview, he said: “I think I will need to play a little bit better tomorrow. I lost some of the basic shots, I’ll need to recover them tomorrow. The body is good. No negative feelings.”

    🙂

    (Screenshots via Del)

  6. Exacrly Vmk1

    It’s that attritional style of play which gave rise to his title ‘The King of Clay’.

    Few players can stay with him when he is fit and healthy – even fewer if it is a five-setter.

    • As he gets older, he should not play too much attritional tennis, a more ruthless play like yesterday’s or the days before matches would serve him well.

      Maybe his first serve is still not up to par so he has to work harder.

  7. Not an amazing performance but good enough. He’s not been tested this week so wonder what he will be like when he finally is tested? However, that might not be until the grass court season with the way he’s playing on clay

  8. OTOH It’s his second serve which now often saves the day for him. I understand it was Carlos Moya who was responsible for that tactic. I can’t think of any other player whose second serve can be more lethal than their first serve. Most opponents are caught napping because traditionally they expect a weaker 2nd serve.

  9. I woke up to see the end of the match. Now I am going to watch my recording. The first set score shows that the set was competitive. I want to see that first set for myself.

    But I also think we have to remember that Rafa cane into this tournament with very little match play. It’s not realistic to expect him to be at his best. Fortunately, Rafa does not have to be at his best to beat his opponents on clay.

    I expect him to have done dips in the quality of his game. Meanwhile, he is in another MC final. That is reason to be happy.

    Winning MC for the 11th time would be a big boost for Rafa going into Barcelona. The main thing is for him to be healthy. The rest will all come together.

    Rafa has to know that he has a real opportunity now to once again do well in the clay season,

  10. Rafa is not at his best. But his level is still way higher than the rest of the field. He just needs to keep himself healthy and not overplay during clay and keep his matches short. So far so good !!

    He has beaten really good players till now. Tomorrow he will win his 11th MC Masters without losing a set.

  11. Having watched the first set now, I will say that Rafa started off well getting an early break. But he played a dreadful game to give back the break. I think Rafa might have been nervous facing Dimi. He’s got the game and the shots to give Rafa a match. The DF’s from Dimi did give Rafa the opportunity to break and win the set. That’s how it goes. Dimi needs to have that big serve working.

    I think it’s important to see the big picture. There is a lot of tennis to be played. Rafa’s level may go up and down as he works his way into good form. But the fact is that tomorrow he will play for #11 at MC. That is what is important.

  12. Nadal looking so good heading into the final. Can’t see him losing more than five games or so. We saw Nishikori test him hard a couple years ago in Madrid when he looked like he was gonna win before a back injury halted him. But this is a different Nadal. A better and MUCH more confident Nadal. Rafa over Kei in an easy two. #KingOfClayAtItAgain

    • That match in Madrid was 4 years ago and every time Nishikori goes on court, the commentators have to refer to it. There are certain irrelevant things that they have on their to-do list regarding players record against Nadal. With Zverev, it’s taking Nadal to match point at IW. They appear to have a spreadsheet detailing all the people who have broken Nadal’s serve, had match point against him, won a set, won a TB, won the coin toss etc. etc. etc. It’s comical.

      • It’s just a testament to how good Nadal is. For them to bring up times that players almost beat Nadal just shows how good Nadal is and how tough it is to beat him.

  13. It’s really kind of a joke that the match in Madrid keeps getting brought up over and over again. Old news. Suffice to say I do not see history repeating itself here.

    Ragain fans already know how good he is on clay. We don’t need these silly little reminders of who won how many games or sets or points or whatever.

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