Rafael Nadal will begin his quest for an 11th Monte-Carlo title when he goes up against Aljaz Bedene during second-round action on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic, who did not have a bye, is facing Borna Coric in his second match of the week.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. Aljaz Bedene
Nadal is playing in a tournament for the first time since the Australian Open, but there are no questions at all regarding his status as the overwhelming favorite this week. After all, the world No. 1 already has two clay-court matches–and two dominant ones–under his belt heading into the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters. In the Davis Cup quarterfinals against Germany in Valencia, Nadal helped the host nation advance by destroying both Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev in straight sets. Now it is on to Monte-Carlo, where the top seed is a 10-time champion and owner of a ridiculous 63-4 lifetime record.
Up first for Nadal on Wednesday is a second career contest against Bedene, who lost their only previous encounter 6-3, 6-3 in the same round of this same event in 2016. The 58th-ranked Slovenian gets another shot at the clay-court king–as if that’s a good thing–thanks to his 6-4, 7-6(3) victory over lucky loser Mirza Basic on Monday. Bedene is an impressive 12-6 this season with a runner-up showing on the red clay of Buenos Aires and a quarterfinal performance in Rio de Janeiro. Although the underdog is quite capable on the slow stuff, Nadal looked unbeatable in Davis Cup and he will be eager to get off the court quickly to conserve energy for a quarterfinal date with either Novak Djokovic or Dominic Thiem.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 3-4 games
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(9) Novak Djokovic vs. Borna Coric
Djokovic and Coric will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers, as well, when they battle for a third-round spot on Wednesday. Their only previous meeting also came in the second round of a clay-court Masters 1000 event (Madrid) in 2016, when Djokovic got the job done 6-2, 6-4. The 30-year-old Serb may be more vulnerable now, having played only three tournaments since the end of Wimbledon last summer. Recovering from major elbow issues, the world No. 13 lost to Hyeon Chung in the Australian Open fourth round and dropped his openers in both Indian Wells (to Taro Daniel) and Miami (Benoit Paire). Perhaps healthier now, Djokovic picked up the pace to hammer compatriot Dusan Lajovic 6-0, 6-1 on Monday in Monte-Carlo.
Coric is a stellar 15-6 in 2018 with an outstanding back-to-back run in Indian Wells (semifinals) and Miami (quarterfinals). The 21-year-old Croat, who also reached quarterfinals in Doha and Dubai, is in contention for French Open seeding at No. 39 in the world. Coric will have to be productive over the next several weeks in order to snag a seed, and that effort got off to a strong start when he trounced Julien Benneteau 6-2, 6-3 in his Monte-Carlo opener. This will be a much tougher test for Djokovic against a red-hot opponent, and one he may not be able to pass due to his relative rust.
Pick: Coric in 3
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The tennis channel is showing Novak and Coric now.
Watched most of the Djokovic match. He played pretty well, though you can tell he’s a bit rusty. Two minor changes in his game that I noticed. First, I thought he served really well, particularly out wide to the deuce court, which gave him a lot of easy points. Should he meet Nadal, that serve will be very important.
Second, I thought his FH looked a bit different from a technical standpoint and was definitely his weaker side. He didn’t seem to be driving it as much as he has in the past. BH looked the same to me and was generally strong.
It turns out that Novak is using a slightly lighter racquet which, according to him, gives him a bit more power, especially on the serve. The change is small, but as he correctly recognizes, potentially quite large at his level.
Novak played a bit tenatively on some of those match points, but also credit to Coric for playing some of his best tennis when his back was against the wall. However, these last two matches have doubtless given Djokovic some confidence and allowed him to shake off the rust. If he’s really pain free and can continue on this path, he should beat Thiem and have his chances against Rafa if it comes to that.
Djokovic recognizes the importance of Federer’s racquet change and is trying to emulate it:
https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/948164/Monte-Carlo-Masters-2018-Novak-Djokovic-Roger-Federer
Everyone is meddling with the racket, Rafa too, much earlier on, adding weight to his racket; that’s well before Fed changed his racket.
Djoko’s serve not as good as before; his FH was good in this match, hitting many winners but Coric wasn’t Rafa; Rafa was hitting very solid BH so I doubt Djoko’s serve out wide (on deuce court) or his FH would trouble Rafa the way it troubled Coric. Rafa is definitely a much better returner of serves than Coric!
If Rafa continues to play well like at the DC, he would beat this Djoko. Rafa comes inside the court very often and hardly plays long points even on clay, he’ll not make the mistakes that Coric made vs Djoko. Coric was quite limited in his game and could only play from the baseline and most points were long, playing into Djoko’s hands.
Well, we saw things differently. I think Novak’s serve is definitely improved from what it’s been in the last year or so, though not as good as its ever been; I’m not saying that. But by his own reckoning, he’s still getting used to the lighter racquet.
Yes, Djokovic hit some nice FH winners, but the shot was not as solid as his BH, from what I saw.
I didn’t think Coric needed to fear long rallies with Djkovic. He held his own quite nicely in the rallies, and his young legs were very good at retrieving what would have been winning shots against many players. What let him down was his serve and ROS.
I’m certanly not saying that Novak will beat Rafa if they meet here, only that he will have his chances if he’s healthy. Basically, if he’s healthy Djokovic could return to top form very quickly. He’d certainly be extremely motivated to do well if he plays Nadal.
Finally, the wide deuce serve which produced many aces against Coric would have done the same to Nadal, who often stands far back on ROS. Whether Novak can replicate that serve consistently against Nadal is another question.
Joe:
1) Djoko’s serve was certainly not at his best level, and you expect that to trouble Rafa? Like I said, Rafa is a much better ROS than Coric!
2) Coric engaging in long rallies and hoping for Djoko to miss had backfired. It’s not difficult to see that Djoko was winning the long rallies, not Coric. Djoko as usual was good at changing directions at will, something Coric couldn’t cope.
3) Djoko’s BH wasn’t what it used to be, so in comparison his FH looked better, and Coric got burnt by avoiding Djoko’s BH and hitting to Djoko’s FH. Coric should if he could, hit more DTL shots instead of CC.
4) Coric served out wide very often and was serving into Djoko’s strength at both wings out wide; to me when serving at the deuce court, he should serve more to Djoko’s BH and when serving at the Ad court, should serve more to Djoko’s FH, that way he would make Djoko work harder for his returns.
Henri Leconte defended Federer’s decision to avoid Rafa on clay adding, “‘If he’s not having injuries, I don’t know anybody who can beat Rafa Nadal.’”
#CaptainObvious