Now the clay-court fun really begins.
After relatively nondescript events in Casablanca and Houston, the first of three Masters 1000s on the slow stuff is on the menu this week in Monte-Carlo. It may not be a required tournament, but the three biggest names in the world are in the field with Roger Federer having signed up for the first time since 2011. He joins Rafael and Novak Djokovic, who combine to own the last nine Monte-Carlo titles. Of course, eight of those belong to Nadal. Djokovic at long last in the defending champion, having ended Nadal’s reign in last year’s final.
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 2,884,675 Euros
Points: 1000
Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: Federer’s first trip to Monte-Carlo in three years should get off to a fine start. The Swiss will open with either Radek Stepanek or Ivo Karlovic and his nearest seed is a slumping Jerzy Janowicz. The other first-round bye recipient in that section of the draw is a desperately out-of-form Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is really the No. 9 seed but replaced fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet following a withdrawal due to a back injury. A more likely quarterfinal opponent for Federer is dangerous clay-courter Fabio Fognini. The Italian, however, generally lacks any kind of belief against the top players (no, beating Andy Murray on clay in Italy does not qualify).
Djokovic, in the same half as Federer, is in a section loaded with talented players who for various reasons probably won’t be able to seriously test the No. 2 seed. Ernests Gulbis’ problem is that he is already out of the tournament, having lost to Alexandr Dolgopolov on Sunday. Dolgopolov and Berdych are dangerous, but they would have to face each other in the third round before either one could meet Djokovic. Nearer to the Serb are Kevin Anderson and Gael Monfils, who are set for a first-round showdown. Anderson was playing well until Casablanca, where his relative lack of clay-court prowess showed. Monfils, as usual, is nowhere near 100 percent physically.
Nadal’s draws are basically of no importance on clay. There can be no such things a bad one unless Djokovic somehow fell out of the No. 2 ranking and landed in Nadal’s half. That won’t happen anytime soon, so for now the top-ranked player in the world should continue to cruise into clay-court finals. His path could feature Gilles Simon in round two, Andreas Seppi in the third round, David Ferrer or Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, and Stanislas Wawrinka in the semis. It’s hard to imagine Nadal dropping even a set along the way.
A routine road is not, however, what awaits Wawrinka. Both of the Houston finalists—winner Fernando Verdasco and runner-up Nicolas Almagro—are in Wawrinka’s eighth of the bracket. Verdasco has to make a quick turnaround and open with a red-hot Marin Cilic, so either way the third-ranked Swiss is going to have a tough test of his hands. A much weaker other side of the section should see either Milos Raonic or Tommy Robredo through to the quarterfinals.
First-round upset alerts: Andreas Seppi over (13) Mikhail Youzhny – Youzhny’s problems in 2014 can be chalked up to poor health and poor play. With Seppi, it’s just poor play. Advantage: Seppi. Youzhny, however, leads the head-to-head series 4-0—so a win for the Italian is by no means a sure thing. But on clay, it is a likelihood.
Gael Monfils over (14) Kevin Anderson – When healthy and playing well, Monfils would be an obvious favorite over Anderson on clay. That isn’t the case right now, which is why a Monfils win would have to be considered a slight upset. But it could happen. Anderson’s movement is particularly poor on the red stuff and he lost his Casablanca opener as the No. 1 seed to Victor Hanescu.
Michael Llodra over (16) Jerzy Janowicz – Clay is Llodra’s worst surface, but it also does not help Janowicz. The Frenchman at least came through qualifying, so he should be feeling somewhat comfortable. Janowicz, on the other hand, has lost five matches in a row. The Pole has not found the winner’s circle since Rotterdam back in February.
Hot: Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic, Fabio Fognini, Alexandr Dolgopolov, Marcel Granollers, Marin Cilic, Federico Delbonis, Yen-Hsun Lu, Fernando Verdasco, Roberto Bautista Agut, Joao Sousa, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Cold: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Jerzy Janowicz, Mikhail Youzhny, Gilles Simon, Andreas Seppi, Jurgen Melzer, Simone Bolelli, Vasek Pospisil, Gael Monfils, Ivan Dodig
Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro over Milos Raonic, Roger Federer over Fabio Fognini, and Novak Djokovic over Tomas Berdych
Semifinals: Nadal over Almagro and Djokovic over Federer
Final: Nadal over Djokovic
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
[polldaddy poll=7965106]
This is always a great tournament, and i’m glad that Fed is back in it. I think that Joker takes the trophy.
Looking at the draw now I feel Rafa has the toughest draw because he has to face the tough guys one after another but in Djoko’s case, most of the tough guys are facing each other so looks like his first real test would be against Berdych who isn’t that great on Monte Carlo clay. Fed’s as usual is easy.
Can’t really expect Fed to get a tough draw at Rolex Masters!
As for Nole, considering his string of easy draws, he definitely has some hold over the ATP guys. Either he knows something or (RITB) he has made generous “anonymous” contributions to their retirement fund! The annoying articles on ATP site hyping Djoko’s chances lend further credence to this.
Anyway, pl Rafa win this!!!
Vamos Rafa, add one more chapter to the story of your absolute reign on clay!!!!!
Pray tell holdserve, what or who makes Rafa’s draw tough?
Apart from Novak, Rafa should breeze through all matches this clay season.
Best case scenario for Rafa after clay season : 27-0
Worst Case Scenario after Clay season : 23-4
snowdevil, if it isn’t obvious to you, then no use telling you!
By the way did you brush up on movement of random air molecules and probability and the difference between impossible and highly improbable?
no use telling me because you can’t back up statements you pull out of your —? And this isn’t the place to give you a dumbed down dissertation of thermodynamics.
Nor your non-existent understanding of probability and statistics.
^^^^
I don’t know who you are, maybe someone from good old tennis-x. But it’s still good to have someone come here and have a different opinion. We don’t have to agree, but it’s good to get different points of view.
Surprisingly, I agree with you. That should make me an outcast because I do not think that Rafa can ever have a tough draw at MC. That’s because of his record at this event, winning it eight straight times. He has defeated all comers.
You want probability and stats? How about a record of 44-1, his one loss to Guillermo Corea back in 2003.
1?
you mean 2?
Well I’m glad to help a brother out so let’s examine each quarter up to the semis. Remember, we are talking relatively speaking.
Rnd of 32 potential opponents:
1. Simon
2. Cilic/Verdasco
3. Stepanek
4. Montanes/Paire
Toughest Simon (vs Nadal)
Easiset: Stepanek (vs Federer)
Rnd of 16 potential opponents:
1. Andujar (pushed Nadal to a 3rd set tiebreak this year on clay)
2. Almagro
3. Janowicz
4. Anderson/Monfils
Toughest: Andujar (vs Nadal)
Easiest: Janowicz (vs Federer)
1/4 Finals potential opponents:
1 .Ferrer/Dimitrov
2. Raonic
3. Tsonga
4. Berdych
Toughest: Ferrer/Dimitrov (vs Nadal)
Easiest: Raonic (vs WaahWaah)
So Nadal has the toughest relative potential draw in every round leading up to the semis
Federer’s draw is easiest up to the semis..
#NotRocketScience
#YoureWelcome
hawkeye63@April 14, 2014 at 1:40 pm
Edouard Roger-Vasselin leads 6-2, 3-1 against Pablo Andujar.
Yes I’m aware thanks augusta08 but we are talking about potential draw opponents (i.e., the draw itself). 🙂
I wasn’t asking nor care about other players’ draws. Nor do you explain what exactly makes each opponent tough against Nadal since he’s never lost on clay to any one them (except once to Ferrer, back in 2004), and has lost less than 7 total sets against all of them in his entire career. That’s 24-1 against the field you just laid out, or was I misunderstanding statistics as you put it? Can you explain what makes his draw tough or you just wanna back up holdserve clutching at nonexistent dribble?
You challenged holdserve’s statement that he felt that Nadal had the toughest draw.
Do you know what the suffix -est means? It is a “relative” term. Relative which means by comparison. So to qualifiy, you have to “COMPARE” to other draws.
I did explain. you just didn’t want or care to understand.
Please read more carefully.
Apparently holdserve was right. Reading comprehension is not your strength either.
Also, point out any round I’ve mentioned and I’ll be more than happy to explain very sloooowly for you.
If you wanna go that route then look through my comments and ask where I challenged holdserve about toughest. I asked what made his draw tough in all my posts, which neither of you have still answered
#lookwhohasnoreadingcomprehension
Ah, he said toughest so you asked holdserve about something he didn’t even say.
Well at least you prove my point about reading comprehension
#AGoodStart
So you’re just gonna complain just to complain that he has “the toughest draw” completely disregarding the fact that he actually has a total cakewalk (for his skill level) to support your and holdserve’s “even though Nadal is arguably the most popular athlete in the world and a huge moneymaker, everyone who’s anyone hates him and wants him to lose at all costs” conspiracy theory? I guess you call yourself conspirator for a reason.
Congratulations on learning what “toughest” means”. You get it!
OK, next English comprehension lesson:
Win does not equal cakewalk.
(You must have missed the “cakewalk” match he had against Andujar in the Rio final this year or the fact he’s taken Nadal to two clay tiebreaks in eight career sets. You must have missed the two cakewalk matches Nadal played against Ferru on clay last year one of which Ferrer was two points from the match. You must have missed Dimitrov pushing Nadal to a third set in MC last year.)
DO you even watch tennis when Federer isn’t playing?
#FederazziAreThick
Did I guess right? You’re a Federer fan, correct?
#NotRocketScience
And Just how do you know I call myself conspirator. I haven’t mentioned that in quite some time.
Either we’ve finally discovered perhaps your memory is one highlight OR you’ve been around longer than you’ve let on under another name.
My oh my, we’ve finally got ourselves a full-blown fan war! Adds spice to a rather staid Tenngrand, methinks………..
At least this much we know: Ricky’s not putting anyone in the moderation queue on the basis of who they support!
never would
Good times
War? Don’t make me laugh ritb.
That’s like saying Fedal was a war.
#DontBringAKnifeToAGunFight
wins against replacement
#WAR
I’m a Gulbis fan actually 🙂 But I don’t whine or complain to nearly the extent you do when I see my guy getting put down (by many people here, all the time). You can keep clutching at your straws though, citing Nadal being pushed to the limit when he’s clearly injured, or how being pushed to a 3rd set (or even TB) once in a while all of a sudden means he doesn’t have an easy draw. And what do you mean exactly by toughest? You’re the one who has tons of time, why don’t you look at the top 4’s H2H against their respective fields and tell me who really has the toughest draw.
I will admit I know I will never convince you of anything, your mental gymnastics to come up with this bull—- are truly impressive. Kudos.
I know of another famous Fed fanatic who now claims to be a Monfils fan now. No, you’re a closet Fedfan then.
You invented clutching at straws on this thread when you couldn’t tell the difference between tough and toughest ROTFL.
No one said anything about Nadal having a tough draw.
Well, I just hope that you not comparing tough with toughest. Don’t you? Or do you. No, you did. Ok. Good.
#Revisionism
LOL a closet fedfan. Thanks for the self-enlightenment (too big a word)?. I will come to you in the future as well when I need to know something else about myself
Anytime My fan.
#YoureWelcome
#Humb1e
NNY, it’s no use calling out holdserve’s BS. You’ll just end up talking in circles and she’ll do anything she can to get the subject off of tennis.
BTW, I used to be ts38 at tennistalk (one of the few Roddick fans). I thought the flame wars with the high schooler kinda gave it away.
@snowdevil,
Oh, I remember you now. I guess that I should have realized it when you knew so much about all of us from TT. I remember you and I went at it there a few times. We weren’t on good terms there. But I do happen to believe that everyone should have a chance to voice their opinion. I would very much like to see fans of other players on this forum. We had that at TT. I know that Rafa fans were the majority, but we still had Fed fans, Murray fans and Novak fans. Also people like you who were fans of other players.
If you have been reading here, then you will know that I have been up against it myself. I did say that Rafa’s draw wasn’t tough. I simply agreed with Ricky that at this event especially, the draw is irrelevant. I think Rafa always has the advantage on clay. I honestly do think this is a decent draw. I also don’t know how you can compare Rafa’s draw with those of the other players. He is in a class by himself at MC and on clay. So I have confidence in Rafa.
Don’t worry. I won’t bother you with quantum physics or lack of reading comprehension or probability or statistics! 🙂
I don’t recall a snowdevil on TT. A different moniker maybe???
I think the worst case scenario for Rafa is to re-injure his knee.
That is the worst case scenario for any player.
The worst case scenario for Rafa is any kind of injury.
I think his knees would be fine. I am more worried about his back especially after hearing about the infiltration. Rafa had knee problems at AO 2012 and it had got really bad at RG 2012 but he gave a tough fight to Nole at AO and beat him convincingly at RG. So knee problem isn’t going to prevent him from mopping up all the clay titles including biting RG cup for the 9th time.
However back problem did prevent him from winning against Stan who is nowhere in Rafa’s league. So I am praying his back s healed. Come on Champ, it is your season!!!!!
Biggest concern is confidence.
As Ricky said, there is no such thing as a tough draw for Rafa at this tournament. I think he has an excellent draw. Early round opponents who will give him rhythm but have no chance to beat him. I don’t think Wawa is even going to get to the semis to meet Rafa. He is the one who has the toughest draw. Ricky predicted Almagro vs. Raonic in the quarterfinals. Almagro did get to the final in Houston, losing to Verdasco. This is clay, so that prediction makes sense.
Novak’s draw has Dolgo and Berdy, Anderson and Monfils and a possible meeting with Fed in the semifinals. Fed was gifted with an easy draw. If JJ was in some decent form, then that might present some challenge. But he hasn’t done anything recently to indicate that he can do it. Tsonga has not been playing well at all. I can see Fognini getting through instead of Tsonga. But he doesn’t have what it takes to beat Fed. I don’t think Berdy will beat Novak if they meet in the quarterfinals. He has done it before, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen here.
As long as Rafa is healthy, I think he is going to get to the final and beat Novak.
Yeah! snowdevil it would have to be a thoroughly dumbed down version of science to have even a remote chance of being understood by you!! Ha ha ha ha!!!
What I would suggest though in your own interest ( so that you don’t make an utter fool of yourself) is that you do not comment on things which are beyond your ability to understand.
Again you fail to address my original question. Who or what makes Rafa’s draw tough?
Ho, ho. Holdserve, the master of the ‘put-down’, is brushing up his skills.
Uh oh, Ed-ward the Master of sly games is back! Can the leopard change his spots? Luckily this is not post WTF so I maybe spared the vicious name calling that dear ed, who claimed to be the spokesperson of the Rafa thought police, once unleashed on me!
This really is a poor effort from Tiggy, not because he is picking Novak but for the lack of his usual stellar analysis to back up his pick! He is basically picking Novak on the basis of the Miami result but I fear he has not really analysed that Miami result before extrapolating it to the possible MC result. I just do not think Miami is a good indicator of possible MC results. Tiggy can do better.
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/04/principles-principality/51169/#.U0uVHE1ZrIV
I repeat my comment (in another thread) that Mr. Steve Tignor is still whining that Djoko was caught breaking the rules at the Roland Carros last year (‘ a disastrous touch of the net with his racquet’). Source: TENNIS Tuesday, April 8.
Tiggy’s beloved Djoko was more lucky against Andy Murray in Miami – he wasn’t caught.
I agree with Tiggy unfortunately.
Surface won’t matter until Rafa addresses current problem between the ears. Clay might help that but it needs to be seen. Novak is defending champ and has the momentum going in.
That said, he has to get past Federer first which will be no walk in the park given Nole’s own mental problems vs Fed.
Tiggy does preface his prediction with the following disqualifier (to which I agree):
“If Nadal and Djokovic do face off for the title, it’s impossible to say right now which direction their 41st match will go.”
Tiggy is actually quite poor at analysis. He enjoys the reputation of being a Rafa fan but frankly some of his articles are anti- Rafa. Like the one where he agreed with Bodo that Rafa was lying when he claimed that all players had issues with the ATP and only Rafa had issues. Again take the article where he.claimed he had watched the video of Rafa’s Wimbly match against Rosol and he did not think Rafa was injured or his movements were impaired! So why did Rafa go on a 7 month break thereafter?
There was the silly article he wrote when it was revealed that Cilic had withdrawn claiming fake injury as he had tested positive, Tiggy said ITF lent itself to allegations of the silent bans by keeping the result of the positive test secret. Strange statement for a tennis journalist to make! Why would ITF make the result public immediately on getting a positive test? It has to do the second test and it makes the positive results public only after its panel has reviewed the evidence. I do believe he is trying to ingratiate himself with the Fed establishment. or he is an idiot.
To me Tiggy’s sounding more and more like a superstitious, neurotic Rafan these days. There is neither rhyme nor reason to his Novak against Rafa picks sometimes. It’s as if he does not want to pick Rafa for fear of jinxing him!
Again, he is entitled to pick whoever he wants but he needs to back those picks up with a bit of reasonable analysis imo, not make it look like a thumb-suck pick.
In a way I am not surprised by Tiggy’s prediction. Reading his blogs, I had a feeling that he would pick Novak. I do think that he’s making far too much of Novak’s win against Rafa in Miami. We know that there were reasons why Rafa lost that match the way he did. Tiggy seems to be ignoring them.
I do not think that Tiggy is anti-Rafa at all. Liking Rafa does not mean that one must always pick him to win. He’s written too many brilliant blogs about Rafa’s game for me to dismiss him because of picking others at times.
I also agree that he did not back up his pick with sound reasoning. You just don’t go against the man who has won this tournament eight times just because he lost to his rival at the most recent hard court event.
Ricky:
“He [Djokovic] joins Rafael and Novak Djokovic, who combine to own the last nine Monte-Carlo titles”.
Hahahahahaha! That’s a bit of an exaggeration.
Vamos Rafa!
Correction:-
Ricky:
“He joins Rafael and Novak Djokovic, who combine to own the last nine Monte-Carlo titles”.
Hahahahahaha!
That’s a bit of an exaggeration that Rafa and Djokovic combine to own the last nine MC titles.
Vamos Rafa!
^^Shades of when Genie Bouchard posted a picture of herself standing between Sampras and Agassi with the caption, “That’s 22 Slams in this picture, folks!”
Yep, Djokovic is a photo-bomber in the Rafa MC title count…………….
Give the poor man a break! He did go on to qualify that OTT statement.
It appears the entire press corps are hellbent on talking up Djokovic. I’m beginning to wonder if they know something we don’t know: or has the Belgrade mafia have issued an ultimatum. I recall a story of Papa Djokovic storming the local radio station and threatening them because they were not giving his son his due.
ed,
What about a link to the Forbes ranking I asked in Rafa’s thread.
nadline10,
Ricky’s attitude to Rafa corresponds to Fed fans’ attitude.
I dont agree. Remember his famous blog ‘Feeling the Pain’?
ed (at 1:32pm),
He is a clever writer. 🙂
One ninth.
#TipOfTheIceberg
This is like the joke about the mosquito which rode on an elephant’s head while crossing a bridge and subsequently boasted how he and the elephant had made the bridge shake violently!
The starts are aligned for Rafa. This is the year of the nines: 9 MC trophies, 9 Barcelona trophies and 9 RG trophies.
^^^^own up, you’ve been talking to Mystic Meg 😛
He’s been talking to Rafa’s coaches ;-).
I mean she. Sorry.
They used to talk up Federer a lot during the clay season. I remember how nearly all the commies would tip him to win everything year after year after and he never did, barring the aberration in 2009 when he didn’t even have to beat Rafa.
I hope Cheatovic has brushed up on the ATP Rule Book, since his episode against Andy. Any more netgate incidents and questions will have to be asked.
I have a feeling The Fog is going to make some noise this MC 2014. Didn’t know Steps’ only 2 wins against Fed were clay court wins, and Steps did take a set off Fed at Dubai 2014. Could be some noise on Wednesday………
I’m watching him now. I agree, provided he can maintain his concentration.
The Davis Cup syndrome is sure to have given him buckets of confidence – he’s definitely a potential banana skin.
^^and then he goes and drops the 1st set to……….Joao Sousa, who truth be told, is a decent player, especially on clay.
Sousa is making a noise!
https://twitter.com/augustazeight/status/455663142224162816/photo/1
Not good signs from The Fog this early in the clay season…………
Treatment
https://twitter.com/augustazeight/status/455666311146639360/photo/1
@10.14am
Apologies gussie. I missed your query.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/celebritymoney/article-2355923/The-worlds-richest-tennis-players-Where-Nadal-Federer-Murray-rank.html
Actually, I don’t understand what this ‘net worth’ means. The numbers don’t correspond to their earnings (prize money & endorsements). Does it mean ‘properties’? I’ll try to find out.
So Foggy slips on his own banana skin.
The racket got punished
https://twitter.com/augustazeight/status/455669635027726336/photo/1
J.Sousa watched Rafa’s practice
https://twitter.com/davidjnadal/status/455463496269197312/photo/1
I should’ve learnt by now. The match is not over till the fat lady sings.
What’s up with the “clay-court specialists” today? The Fog was pushed by a mere babe and Andujar is currently being roughed up by……………..Roger-Vasselin!
Analysis of a player’s draw if properly done would not claim a draw is easy or tough based on how good the player is but would be based on how good or bad his likely opponents are. Otherwise without analysing any draw, we can safely say all draws are easy for the Big 4 because they have so consistently proved themselves better than the others. To repeat, a player’s draw can be deemed tough or easy by looking at the opponents, how good( or bad) they are. Not on how good the player is. Predictions would take the player’s prowess into account.
If at AO, Rafa had Nole’s draw, I am convinced Rafa would have won the trophy. Playing tough opponents one after another must have strained both his physical and mental strength. We know how vulnerable the back is to stress and when you try to play when it is acting up, it could lead to serious injuries.
Holdserve, you need to use smaller words. And don’t use any suffixes as they will only confuse him more.
Agreed, hawkeye. Point noted
Andujar is suffering from some kind of injury on his arm, apparently.
The trainers keep coming to Roger-Vasselin. They have given him something to “eat”.
gutsy effort from Pab
Why or why is Vashy playing RBA? RBA is meant to play Gulbis ONLY!
No squeaks on clay.
Same with Berdych vs. Anderson
Looks like Andujar’s finally figured out this slippery character……..
#Vasselin
Rafa’s first round opponent: T. Gabashvili
did he beat Simon?
They’re not scheduled to play until tomorrow. Did Simon withdraw?
Reeeeeeshard pulled out.
they probably just ASSUME Gaba will win
^^^Gaba and Simon play tomorrow, first match of the day on Court Des Princess.
Based on what?
Gaba took Rafa to two TBs at ’10 USO.
based on the fact that it’s Simon
Oh, oh……my bad, thinking too far ahead……
ritb, Three of the 5 features o the ATP Home page are about Rafa so they love Rafa too.
They have no choice, @nadline10. Rafa = traffic.
They may want to push Novak into the limelight but the inconvenient business sense soon takes over……………
^^^^they must’ve been tipped off some tennis fans weren’t happy about the blatant bias!
#RedressingTheBalance
I suppose they had to feature Djoker because he is the defending champion.
“Winning this title last year in the final against Nadal was definitely one of the highlights of my career” said Djokovic.
Really?
^^You should know by now @ed251137, beating Rafa is the holy grail for all these pros, Novak included.
It’s not like he’d never done it before. To my mind it reveals he relished stopping Rafa’s run of MC wins – far more than actually winning the title. He didn’t stop to reflect Rafa was still working his way back after the injury layoff.
Now, this is what concerns me, the weekly weather forecast for Monaco.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Monaco/forecasts/latest
Forecast is for rain on Sunday. Remember how Djokovic frolicked in the muddy bog that was Chatrier in the final of 2012 before play was sensibly halted?
I hope Uncle Toni is aware and angles for a sunny, Monday final………………
RT @DRossingh: “Breaking: French Open winners to get 1.65mln euros, or 10% boost. Total prize pot boosted by 3mln to 25mln euros. Story to follow”
Simon currently leading Gaba, which is good. Want Simon to win, will give Rafa rhythm…..
Gaba’s taking Simon to a third.
and promptly breaks Simon in the 1st game of the 3rd………
Federico Delbonis, who defeated Fed in Hamburg last year, was sent packing by Yen-Hsun Lu.
There are pictures on TW of Boris at Rafa’s training session. Rafa is a much nicer person than me because I know where I’d tell him to go to.
I posted a picture in Rafa’s thread.
I feel Gabashvili will be a better workout for Rafa than Simon in terms of finding rhythm.
2nd break for Gaba. Simon’s toast, no?
Simon’s spindly legs just crack me up…..
Compare them to The Fog’s, with cantaloupes for calves.
There was a great documentary about Gilou. He was asked about his keep fit regime to which he replied “do I look like I workout?” He recently injured his back badly after, of all things, falling off a trampoline.
Strange outfit Dimitrov’s got on, all black……….in Spring.
@hawkeye, 14th April, 1:40pm
don’t really agree with your assessment there.
Round of 32, Cilic/verdasco are the toughest, not Simon
Round of 16, Almagro is the toughest of them all, not Andujar
QF : I will give it to Ferru/Dimitrov due to the troubles they caused to Rafa last season on clay. But they haven’t yet beaten him. So its a dicey mess up there. Fed has to face Tsonga who won their last meeting on clay in straight sets. Nole has to face berdych who did beat him last season on clay. So even in the Qf’s Rafa doesn’t have the toughest of draw.
So yeah, Rafa’s draw is not the toughest. It’s tougher than Fed but not the toughest. Yes, Fed does have an easy draw till R16.
@abhirf,
What has Almagro done lately? Andujar is more dangerous than Almagro.
@ritb,
Almagro’s track record on clay speaks for itself. Quite on other courts and posting relatively good results on clay season after season.
You can check their year in activity here :
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Nicolas-Almagro.aspx?t=pa
http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Pablo-Andujar.aspx?t=pa
What makes Andujar more dangerous than Almagro??
Again, how he played Rafa previously at the FO and just recently in Rio. Almost beat him.
Nico’s record from your link is a joke and proves my point. The highest ranked player he beat on clay was No. 45 Chardy who also can’t play on clay.
Andujar handed two breadsticks on clay in a win over No. 17 (and clay specialist) Robredo, a bagel in a win over No. 34 Granollers (clay dude) and lost to Nadal L 6-2, 3-6, 6-7(10). Third set TB 12-10????
Abhirf, you cannot be serious.
@abhirf,
Andujar was in the semis in Madrid last year and played a lively match against Rafa. This year, he was very close to taking Rafa out in South America on clay. Tennis is about “what have you done for me lately”, not history. Almagro WAS good, he no longer is.
Rafa was playing crap at Rio.
Almagro is still good on clay.
Almagro is a tougher opponent for anyone on clay than Andujar is for Rafa on clay. Almagro would be more dangerous for Wawa than Andujar would be Rafa.
Also, Pablo’s record proves that he is more of a hit or miss player than a consistent guy.
Verdasco is fatigued from last week (ended up withdrawing). Cilic’s career record on clay is worse than Simon’s (who lost today anyways).
I picked Andujar because he plays Rafa hard on clay. Almost beat him in Rio final. Almagro is a bum.
Tsonga is in one of his classic funks. Basket case. Fed only lost to him because of his back. Tsonga is a non-factor in MC right now. Nole simply wigged out last year serving for the match up two breaks against Berdych. Mental collapse. Berdych is not typically dangerous on clay. Besides, yo said you’d give it to Ferru/Dimi already. 🙂
No one’s draw is easy or tough but Rafa’s is toughest and Fed’s is easiest to the semis.
For the overall draw however, Fed’s is toughest because he potentially has to beat Nole and Nadal but that is true regardless of the draw.
Tsonga just squeaked past Khols. No way he’s beating RBA or the Fog.
Yeah but it has been years since Simon actually played well.
Cilic is playing with more confidence at the moment.
Andujar almost beat Rafa coz Rafa was not at his very best at Rio. Remember, Almagro stretching Rafa to 2TB’s at FO 2010 when Rafa was at his best on clay. Besides, we are not judging the opponents based on how they match up against Rafa.
You have to look at all of the matchups, not just Rafa, which is what I did.
Andujar has played Rafa close three times, not just the one. He is aggressive and is successful making Rafa uncomforatble .
Cilic is starting to play well and is currently 22-6 but hasn’t played a single match on clay nor is he known for his prowess on clay. Certainly no threat and a cakewalk for Fed, Nole or Rafa.
Cilic is in Stan’s quarter not Fed, Rafa or Nole.
Still think Andujar will challenge Rafa or Stan more than Cilic would on clay ATM.
BTW, Andujar beat Cilic on clay including a breadstick last year.
Cilic has not shown any result on clay in the last two years to suggest he could push Nadal at all in MC.
@hawkeye,
Are you for real?? 🙂
I’m talking about Cilic vs Stan and you are explaining about Cilic vs Rafa.
@hawkeye
Are you for real??
I’m talking about Cilic vs Stan and you are explaining about Cilic vs Rafa.
maybe he could not push Rafa at MC but he definitely can push Stan.
Moreover Cilic has most of the weapons and an all round game, so he could improve on clay.
maybe he could not push Rafa at MC but he definitely can push Stan.
Moreover Cilic has most of the weapons and an all round game, so he could improve on clay.
Cilic is already not terrible on clay
Cilic might push Stan but not as much as Andujar would IMO which is part of why I said Rafa had the tougher opponent (doesn’t mean the match will be closer, just closer than it would be if Rafa drew Cilic and vice versa for Waah-Waah.)
abhirf, snowdevil and NNY are sisters under the skin.
I will pick Rafa to win this title. It all depends on his confidence level when facing Nole.
I pick Rafa too. Nole is no gimme against Fed in the semis so he has to get there first.
Surprised that Fed has chosen not to start until Wednesday.
Yup. Nole against Fed is always a dicey match irrespective of the form of the 2.
Probably still want an extra day to get over the accumulated fatigue.
Wednesday start makes sense to me……….no loss of rhythm due to stops.
I am not watching the Djokovic match, I am watching Dimi instead, because the commies are getting on my nerves. They keep going on about how he nearly beat Rafa in RG last year, which is not even the case. Interesting how they keep quiet about the USO, Novak’s favourite surface.
#Shocker
Never mind how he NEARLY beat Rafa blah, blah, blah. How about they talk about how he beat Novak in Madrid last year?
For about a decade now there is only one rule in ATP reporting: do not be objective when it comes to Rafa versus his opponents.
#kidding
#;-)
Hehehe, Novak’s duffing up Montanes! Now wait for the ratcheting up of the , “RG is his this year” blather…….
snowdevil is confused between tough and toughest. Also he certainly does not know how to analyze a draw ( though most tennis pundits are guilty too). For somebody as logic challenged as he is, I guess it is too much to expect.
I can suggest a rough and ready method to analyze the toughness of a quarter .Add up all the seeds. This is usually a good indicator unless some of the seeds are coming in injured or it is a surface like grass. All players except American players are comfortable on clay and rankings are a good indicator of their “toughness”.
Rafa 31+1 ;Stan 34+3; Fed 35+4; Djoko: 36+2..
The one with the lowest total (without counting him) is likely having the toughest draw. This is however only an indicator but is by no means conclusive. In the instant case, it certainly supports the “toughest” hypothesis.
I can think of more sophisticated methods of analyzing the draw but I think even this dumbed down version would seem like theory of relativity to our snowdevil.
For the benefit of logic challenged, I repeat, a draw is deemed tough or not depending on the opponents in the Quarter.
I don’t know why I ever address your nonsense in the first place. You’re the one who was clinging to the myth about Rafa on court 16 against Tomic for days after about 100 comments that it was a joke. It is still good for a laugh though.
#MoveItToCourt13
Wow! That was a frightening display by Djokovic. However we won’t be able to really gauge his level till he plays a tough opponent. What happened to his supposed right hand injury? Eggkovic will no doubt write in his next book about how he cures himself instantly of injured ankles and wrists.
abhirf,
Nice to see you here! I enjoyed reading your thoughts about the draw and your prediction. Even if I don’t always agree, you make your arguments in a reasonable and respectful way.
Rafa doesn’t have tough draws at MC. A tournament that he has won eight times? His dominance there indicates that draws are almost irrelevant. Last year he struggled because of having knee treatment before the tournament started. He wasn’t able to practice as much. This year that will not be the case.
Rafa has a natural advantage on clay. So the number of seeds Rafa faces is irrelevant. I still maintain that there is no such thing as a tough draw for Rafa at this event.
snowdevil, you are not only logic challenged but also delusional, which probably is necessary to be a Fed fan. Here’s wishing you a few happy delusions.
I think Gabashvilli is going to be more competitive that Stepanek and Montanes have been.
not saying a lot!
all he has to do is win 4 games
He is halfway through.
The King is in the house!
I don’t like that blue colour on him, too dour……………
Loving Rafa’s blue shirt.
I went to the optician this morning and had my pupils dilated so my vision is going to be blurred for the rest of the day…….shuks!
Vamos Rafa!
That’s why you’re loving that blue @nadline28, hahahaha! You’re partially blind today……..
Doesn’t Gaba know Rafa always receives first?????
*I am watching you, Gaba*
ritb, haven’t you noticed that players now always put Rafa in to serve first because they know he doesn’t like that. Against anyone else all players will elect to receive if they win the toss but not against Rafa.
I really do love that blue, it’s my school colour.
hi everyone !
I also like this blue color 🙂
Rafa finding some rhythm….
Okay then, blue’s the colour……………matching my mood right now.
DID HE REALLY MAKE THAT? UNREAL! welcome to the rafa-land !
Gaba’s on fire…….
phewwwwww lol
Wake up, Rafito! Fight fire with fire!!!!
vamos ! awesome game
Now the tournament begins………
Vamos!!
after a short delay, the rafa express has now departed …
is there any other shot in the history of tennis that has done more damage on any surface than rafa’s forehand has done on clay?
Sampras serve on grass?
federer forehand on grass/fast HC ?
Rafa’s forehand devours his opponent…
First set Rafa. That was as I expected, a tough set.
Vamos!!
Was wondering why nobody was commentating on the R2 thread. Just realised everybody is here. What about that 79% 1st serve from Rafa?
It’s a shame Muzza’ not here. This is the best MC ever……….really building up now.