Monte-Carlo Masters preview and predictions

The clay-court swing is kicking into high gear with the first of three Masters 1000 events this week in Monte-Carlo. It marks the return of Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, the top two players in the world. Djokovic suited up for Davis Cup duty to help Serbia beat Spain in a quarterfinal tie, but he has not played a tournament since losing to Nick Kyrgios at the Indian Wells Masters. Murray also missed Miami because of an elbow injury and has not taken the court since dropping his Indian Wells opener to Vasek Pospisil.

Rafael Nadal, meanwhile, is going for his 10th title in Monte-Carlo—just as he will be doing at the French Open later this spring. Nadal won’t have to face Roger Federer, against whom the Spaniard is 0-3 this season, because Federer is likely skipping the clay-court season at least until Roland Garros.

Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
Surface: Clay
Points
: 1000
Prize money
: 4,273,775 Euros

Top seed: Andy Murray
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: Djokovic, Nadal, and Dominic Thiem all find themselves in the bottom half of the draw. Grigor Dimitrov is also there, but he has cooled off since capturing titles in Brisbane and Sofia to go along with a semifinal showing at the Australian Open. Nadal and Dimitrov are on a collision course for the quarterfinals in what would be a rematch of their five-setter in the Aussie semis. Needless to say, however, there is a long way to go before that potential showdown. Nadal could run into Alexander Zverev in the third round, while Dimitrov is likely to face Roberto Bautista Agut at that point.

As for Thiem, some of his best friends on tour have become familiar foes and more of the same is set to transpire in Monte-Carlo. The Austrian is also ready scheduled to meet Zverev in the doubles first round for a third consecutive Masters 1000 event. He is also in line to battle David Goffin in the singles third round. The winner of that possible matchup would probably earn a quarterfinal date with Djokovic.

A seemingly less daunting top half of the bracket should set up well for Stan Wawrinka—and to an even greater extent if Murray shows signs of rust, which would not be surprising. A relatively tough clay-court draw also awaits the top-ranked Scot, who could kick off his campaign with Tommy Robredo before a potential contest against current Marrakech finalist Philipp Kohlschreiber. Wawrinka’s section is notably soft, but he could run into some trouble in the form of either Pablo Cuevas (round three) or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (quarterfinals).

First-round upset alert: Fabio Fognini over (13) Pablo Carreno Busta. Carreno Busta was the most surprising semifinalist in Indian Wells. Fognini enjoyed that distinction in Miami. One of them, though, will be gone before the second round of this Masters tournament. Although Carreno Busta is dominating the head-to-head series 4-0, two of their encounters have required final sets and a Sao Paulo quarterfinal earlier this season ended in a second-set tiebreaker. And of course with Fognini, he can beat just about anyone on any given day if he wakes up on the correct side of the bed.

Hot: Rafael Nadal, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, David Goffin, Alexander Zverev, Pablo Carreni Busta, Fabio Fognini, Diego Schwartzman, Federico Delbonis

Cold: Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Marin Cilic, Gilles Simon, Tommy Robredo, Tommy Haas, Bernard Tomic, Karen Khachanov

Quarterfinal predictions: Philipp Kohlschreiber over Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Rafael Nadal over Roberto Bautista Agut, and Dominic Thiem over Novak Djokovic

Semifinals: Wawrinka over Kohlschreiber and Nadal over Thiem

Final: Nadal over Wawrinka

[polldaddy poll=9724682]

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

75 Comments on Monte-Carlo Masters preview and predictions

  1. I have to see how Rafa plays his matches on clay before being optimistic. If his forehand looks as vulnerable as it did on HC, I will just have to pray that Nole, Wawa and other clay threats have off days. Till 2015, clay matches were on Rafa’s racket. Not in the last two years. At RG last year, he did show signs of his former self but alas the wrist brought an end to that story. But I know Rafa will give his all. It is a good sign that both Uncle T and Moya have accompanied Rafa to MC. Hope they will be there till RG is over when our boy will hopefully lift his 10th La Coupe des Mousquetaires. It has been a long wait.

    • Mary (AT 8:56 PM),

      During the 2017 clay season, Rafa’s coaches are scheduled to travel:
      ¤ Carlos Moya to Monte Carlo, Madrid and Paris;
      ¤ Francis Roig to Barcelona;
      ¤ U.Toni to Monte Carlo, Rome and Paris (Toni may join Moya & Roig in Madrid & Barcelona.)
      [Source: El Espanol]

  2. “Till 2015, clay matches were on Rafa’s racket”

    This. -though maybe the year should be 2014. But definitely not 2017. I will be very surprised to see Rafa win MC this year, and not at all surprised to see him fall to Zverev in R3. I think this is the tournament Nole reasserts himself. Novak over Wawa in the final, because Stanimal only shows up for GS finals.

    • Crazy! Djoko has not shown any such form to indicate that he’s back to his dominant self, and we have people believing he would beat Nadal and whoever in the final to win the MC title! If anything, he was having a trainer treating his right elbow during his practice session, I doubt he would be at 100% fitness level this MC.

      • Maybe you’re right about Novak; I don’t know about his fitness/health other than what I’ve heard and (to a lesser extent) seen. But I don’t think it’s crazy to pick him here if he’s near full strength. If anyone has not shown any indication that he’s back to his once-dominant form, it’s Nadal. He’s done pretty well this year; he’s beaten most of the players he’s faced. But apart from having to play Fed 3 times, I think he’s still largely untested. That’s almost certain to change at MC. I would love to see him and Nadal in the semis to see where things are at. But Rafa will have a very tough road to get there.

        • @Joe..i agree with u….what concerned me the most is that.rafa seems unable to execute when key moments arrived….At AO,he’s leading in 5th sets but gave up his chances..at IW and Miami he also failed to rise to the level he should have..in Acapulco…well,sure Sam serves crazy good that day but i still think Rafa failed to insert his authority like he used to in the past and gave too much power to Sam to dominate him…

          In MC,like Hawks always said…once again it’s going to be Rafa vs Rafa first and foremost…if he can ‘conquer’ himself than he will win against any player including Nole….if not,i doubt he will retain his title this time….But,hey….that doesn’t mean i’m not gonna cheer for him….What??Hip hip hooorayyyy!!!.VAMOS RAFA!!!!

          • Good for you, Mira. You have to back your player. But I have to disagree with you that it’s Rafa vs. Rafa in the first instance. That would be true if his problems were mainly mental. But I don’t think they are; I think he has lost confidence the last couple of years mostly because he recognizes that he’s not able to do what he once could do.

            First and foremost, it’s a lack of (or reduction in) foot-speed, which in tennis affects everything. From a technical standpoint (imo as a good club player), it is especially important when you hit a forehand the way Nadal does. It’s a very unusual shot, and to generate the combination of spin, power, and placement required, his feet have to be in exactly the right place. On a lot of shots I just think it’s harder for Rafa to get his feet in the correct position these days.

          • @Joe…once again i agree with u!!!That’s why we saw he FH sprayed all over the place when he hit it because he’s late to arrive like he used to in the past right?Joe….in your opinion what rafa should do to cover this weakness of him?There’s must be something he and Moya could work out to win a title again especially FO is fast approaching..

          • Mira, I think Rafa should follow the trend toward first-strike tennis. He still has a great FH which he is capable of hitting for a winner in many circumstances. It’s just not as good on the run as it used to be. And although his serve isn’t great, it’s improved since the AO, and he has the lefty’s advantage. Especially on the ad-court wide serve he has a lot of opportunities to end the point quickly. The other thing he has is a great volley and terrific instincts about when to come to net. If I were his coach I would urge him to use them more.

            All of this will require playing closer to the baseline, which I don’t think is Rafa’s natural tendency, and which he’s generally uncomfortable doing, as far as I can tell. But I think he can do it, and it’s his best chance at this stage of his career, imo.

          • Joe Smith (AT 4:08 AM),

            Rafa lost is confidence in 2015 because of the injuries he suffered in 2014. In 2016, he had left wrist problems that strated in spring and lasted until the last months of the year (he skipped the WTF because of that).

          • Mira (and Joe),

            You’ve forgotten that Rafa won MC and Barcelona last year, so this ‘he’s not being able to win in finals’ would only apply on other surfaces, not on clay!

            If Rafa could reach HC finals with his loss of foot speed, what more he could do when he’s on clay? I mean, he lost to Fed, not anyone else, and Querrey had to play out of his mind to beat a tentative Rafa at Acapulco. He was bageled by Kohl in the first set but how quickly he turned things around in set two and three! On clay he would do even better! When Rafa beat Sock at Miami, it was due to Sock’s poor play but when Fed beat the same Sock in IW, it was due to Fed’s brilliant play, how’s that for unbiased assessment??

            Fed had his narrow escapes too esp vs Berdych, a player he practically owned. Had he lost to Berdych, Rafa might be the one winning at Miami and we won’t be here talking so much about how ‘poorly’ Rafa strikes the ball or how he’s slower these days.

            Rafa is not an outright attacking player; he’s more a counter puncher and so, many times it appeared that his opponents, esp the attacking type, seemed to have the upper hand or were in control of the points but Rafa always or very often found solutions to his problems.

            The A Zverev and Dimi matches at AO, the Kohl match at IW (or was it Miami?), Rafa seemed to be at the losing end but each time he turned things around. I mean that’s his style of play that we have to come to accept; he’s not an all out attacking player and he may never be even if he grows older and loses more of his foot speed and physical power. He may make more net approaches, steps inside the court more often, but he’ll never be a net rushing or a S&V kind of player.

          • When Rafa was just an upstart, he was playing from close to the baseline on the HCs. He wasn’t afraid to step inside the court, or moved to the net when there were chances to do so – e.g. Miami 2004 vs Fed and then Gonzo; Montreal 2005 final vs Agassi.

            It’s after his successes on clay that he started to play his clay court game everywhere. It took him a few years to master the skills to play and win on grass – playing close to baseline, mastering the movement on grass, etc. It took him even longer to finally win at HC slams; by then, he was so used to playing from far behind the baseline that he needed conscious efforts to play closer to baseline and won’t do that consistently.

            He has to do that imo, if he still wants to win on HCs.

          • Lucky, of course you’re right that Rafa is a natural counter-puncher, but I don’t think you’re right that he doesn’t need to make adjustments on clay, only on other surfaces. His game has declined across the board, including on clay. If all the top players are healthy and on form, it’s just not true any more that Rafa is the best clay courter. He may be no better than 5th, imo.

            In any case, I think he has more scope for increasing the attacking part of his game than either Novak or Murray (who I think is the least naturally aggressive of the three). We’ll see over the next couple of months whether that is required or not.

          • @Joe…Hehe…once again agree with u!Rafa has no choice but to be aggressive in order to win even on his beloved clay..he can’t win if he’s tentative and afraid to take initiative like before..clay or not..he’s already lost his magic a little bit on his beloved surface…his supposed match with novak will tell us everything IMO..

          • @Lucky….also agree with everything u said!Great analysis..always be a fan of your post even you’re always critical about rafa sometimes…but that’s what fans do if we’re disagree with what he translates on court…thanks for great comments Lucky!!

    • If Stan and Nole play in the final, I personally would pick Stan. He takes down Djoker in finals when he needs to. Aka US Open and French Open. Even though these are grand slams, if he gets to the final, Stan is typically very motivated. Just look at that 11 match win streak in finals he had before it was broken by Zverev end of last year.

      • You’re right that Stan certainly has Novak’s number in finals lately. I just think if Novak gets there, he may get some back this time.

        • Joe, when did I say Rafa need not make adjustments on clay?? Don’t know where you get that from.

          All I’m saying is that on clay he’s clutch enough to win, at MC and Barcelona! And, where did you get that Rafa is only no.5 on clay now? He had 1540 points from the clay masters last year and he had to withdraw from FO due to injury, not beaten by anyone there. So, he’s at worst no.3 behind Murray and Djoko.

          This season neither Djoko or Murray has shown the form they had last season so far, so how do you know Rafa is at best no.5 and I assume you mean he’s behind them?

          • When all of them are healthy? Then Rafa will be no.1 on clay! He’s no.1 on clay since 2005 to 2014; it’s only in 2009 that he’s no.2, not winning the FO. His worst year so far is/was 2015 when he’s in a slump. He was leading in the points on clay last year until he had to withdraw from R3 of FO.

          • Lucky, I said he *may* be no better than 5th on clay when all are healthy. He hasn’t beaten either Novak or Federer for nearly 3 years (of course he hasn’t played Roger on clay, but I like Fed’s chances if they do meet at RG this time). Murray is the #1 player in the world, much improved on clay. And Stanimus Prime (2015 RG version) may be unbeatable by any current player on clay. That’s why I said Rafa may be no better than 5th. As far as I can tell, he’s fully healthy now. Given his age and injury record, I think he’s playing about as well as he can play. I just think his level is much less good, on all surfaces including clay, than it was a few years ago.

          • Joe, even then,you think Djoko and Murray would be as good as last season on clay? It’s strange that when Djoko and Murray haven’t even proven themselves this season to be the top two guys so far this year, and yet you and some here rate them above Rafa even on clay! I mean you think both of them who are better on HCs than on clay, would suddenly become world beaters on clay, after not playing much and not winning much so far?

            Please don’t underestimate Rafa on clay! Fed has no chance on clay vs Rafa, SHBH players generally don’t play well vs Rafa on clay.

            My take, the Rafa now can beat anyone on clay, and until the world beater Djoko shows up to play, Rafa would then need to raise his level and Im sure he will and he can do that on clay. I like his chances on clay this year, even against Djoko.

          • Lucky, I think the SHBH theory is dead, at least where Federer is concerned. It should have worked in Miami, a slow high-bouncing court. I don’t think the results on clay will be different, though sadly the chances Rafa-Fed will happen on clay this year are pretty low. I didn’t say that Murray and Novak are at the same level as last year; I said that if they were (or near their best), I think they may be better than Rafa on clay now (that should be pretty uncontroversial regarding Novak). I would never underestimate Nadal on clay. No player has ever owned a surface like he does clay. But face the facts: he hasn’t been the same player, even on clay, since 2013. Yes, he won RG 2014, but even then that he only won one other clay tournament, against an injured Nishikori who had to retire. I remember it was big news that year that Rafa wasn’t dominating as usual on clay.

            Let’s see. If he has a great clay court season in 2017 then obviously I’m wrong. I just don’t see it happening.

          • Come on Joe, in 2014 Rafa had his back injury and he was not the same player anymore after that. However, the stem cell treatments offered hope for him, as his knees are ok now, his back too.

            What do you think about Rafa on clay in 2016 compared to his 2014? I would say had it not for his wrist injury, he would be doing better than his 2014 on clay!

            Don’t compare Miami to clay! Come on, Rafa could lose meekly at Miami, but come the clay season, he could go on to win important titles! Check his 2008, 2010, 2012 etc and etc to see for yourself! It’s just wishful thinking on your part, to assume that just because Fed could beat Rafa at IW/Miami, he could beat Rafa on clay! This isn’t the first time Fed had beaten Rafa at IW or Miami, still, come the clay season, Rafa would turn the table on Fed, simple as that. Rafa is not the king of clay for nothing!

          • And nope, the SHBH vs Rafa on clay theory is not dead. I mean when Rafa is playing well on clay, not even the DHBH could deal with him on clay! You make the mistake of assuming that Fed beating Rafa on HCs now means he can beat Rafa now on clay. Miami is not clay, it’s slow HCs but it’s not that high bouncing as clay and you can’t glide on HCs the way you can on clay.

            I mean when Rafa was playing poorly on clay, even Almagro beat him! Cuevas, Stan and Thiem too beat him on clay but that’s when Rafa was vulnerable on clay. Rafa did beat Thiem and Stan at MC last year, when he’s playing well. His H2H vs SHBH players on clay is pretty impressive. There’s no indication that Rafa will be playing poorly this coming clay season.

          • I have to agree with Lucky here. Since when is Rafa only 5th best on clay? In what universe? Novak and Murray have not shown anything close to their best form even on HC’s, let alone clay! Neither one of them has looked anywhere close to the form that made them the top two players.

            It remains to be seen if Novak and Murray can regain their form during the clay season. Right now we know that Rafa is healthy. He is not coming back from an unjury. He’s had a good HC season with his best results in two years. I see no reason to question what Rafa is capable of doing on his best surface.

  3. Rafa lifted the Monte Carlo crown for eight consecutive years. Djokovic wrestled it from him just once in 2013 when Rafa was coming back from a seven month injury layoff before he went on an absolute tear for the rest of that season up until the autumn swing (traditionally not his forte) and which earned him the ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ accolade.

    As Augusta and Lucky both point out, the confidence crisis which followed stemmed from anxieties about the new spate of injuries not related to the knee problems which have plagued his entire career. Rafa faces a tough draw with dangerous YoungGen players in his path but it would be a rash punter to wager a bet on Rafa not lifting his 10the MC crown.

    I think Atul is a tad over optimistic it will be without dropping a set but miracles do happen

    • ed,

      I like your optimism. I think Rafa is coming into the clay season playing better than he was last year. Even though he has yet to win a title, he has gotten to the final of a slam and a few tournaments. I hope he can get over the hump and win a title or two leading up to RG. That is the missing piece of the puzzle for Rafa. He does have a tough draw with some young guns to face, but this is where Rafa feels most at home.

  4. Losing to Federer three times this year is not a good sign, particularly for Rafa.

    But it’s all mental, not physical or age. That’s complete BS from fedfawns and revisionists with their own narratives.

    Rafa in his current form can win on clay given the current field and he’s not far from returning to his best where he can beat anyone on clay regardless of their form.

    As I said.

    It’s on Rafa’s racquet. Nothing new.

    Period.

    • Same as Nole BTW except potentially worse for him ATM. Mentally burnt out.

      And Muzza too. I predicted he would struggle to stay at No. 1. He didn’t play well in 2017 prior to getting injured.

      Tennis at this level especially among the Big 4 + a CryBaby is 99% mental.

  5. hawkeye, it is getting boring, this constant repetition of the mental thing and Rafa vs Rafa. But I guess if you repeat it often enough, you get some people (like MA) to believe it.
    If Rafa is in the physical form which allows him to play as he wants, no one can beat him. If his body is not cooperating, then someone else may win the title but not certain as even a Rafa with his B game cannot be counted out on clay.

    • Disagree. Otherwise he would have beaten Federer this year.

      Also, the denial of Rafa’s issues being purely physical is boring (but not as boring as the media that ignores Rafa is not at his best against Federer who is).

      • You are like a broken record. We saw that Rafa has lost speed which resulted in messing up his footwork and consequently his forehand. Any one who says Rafa’s issues are not physical is deluding himself. Hopefully on clay his loss of speed will not be that critical as he will get more time to get into position. Also of course I hope his loss of speed is not permanent and he is now just as speedy as he was in his pre -2015 days.

        • What? lack of foot speed the only reason Rafa’s forehand has been messed up?! Actually, it has been his inability to put away routine forehands with ruthless consistency that has perhaps cost him the most. So often we have seen him construct points only to miss easy put-away forehands.

          It is a combination of both things. Injuries made him lose confidence and yeah with age he slowed a bit. Now he is sometimes not able to hit run-around forehands with the same quickness and power (as he is a bit out of position sometimes). But, I see lots of Rafa practice sessions and he is BLUDGEONS the balls to every corner when is gets in the zone. I see him struggling the next day in match play!

          Yes, lack of speed has been an issue but he had lost confidence in his forehand. The confidence has returned a lot and this is the optimal time for him to regain it.

          Rafa is really good at hitting the reset button come the clay season and given how motivated he looks and sounds, I think he is prepared to win title after title.

          It is great that Moya is there as well.

          Miami final was a disappointing but the good thing if he is consistently winning matches and has been losing only to one man. I saw much improved serving in the Miami final (both first and second) but the terrible forehand misses, fed’s confidence and some back luck led to his downfall. Miami really is an unlucky place for Rafa. I remember he was up 2 sets to love in the 2005 final and had fed serving at 3-4 0-30 when Fed hit a forehand that was at least 2-3 inches LONG but the umpire and line judge called it in! Rafa was shocked but there was no challenge system and it would have been 3-4 0-40 on Fed’s serve!

          Anyway, I am not too bothered about lack of speed or anything. I think he is there physically and with clay under his feet, he is going to do lots of damage.

          • VR gets it.

            ” But, I see lots of Rafa practice sessions and he is BLUDGEONS the balls to every corner when is gets in the zone. I see him struggling the next day in match play!”

            #BetweenTheEars

          • excuse the typos :/

            But yeah, confidence issue spares no one! Whatever the reasons, Rafa’s confidence dropped massively and he has done really well to recover it. I thought he was ready to win RG in 2016 but that wrist injury was too much. Full credit to him for not losing hope and fighting back.

            I think this will be a very successful clay season for Rafa.

            All those worrying about his forehand, don’t worry too much. He will hit is with lots of venom and instil fear again. You will see a lot of them for the highlight reel 🙂

          • But the way he hits the forehand in practice is different from how he hits it in match play. In matches he has to move fast to one side or the other to hit the forehand and that is where footspeed and resultant footwork come into play. Honestly I did not think I have to point out basic stuff to you hawkeye. You actually know a lot about tennis but in the instant case, your knowledge and logic are lost in your obsessive compulsion to prove that Rafa’s problem is between the ears.

      • Apparently lack of confidence is not one of your failings as you repeat your wrong assessment ad nauseam with perfect confidence!

        • If Rafa had his forehand and speed and still lost matches it would be lack of confidence. But his game this year is still not good enough to beat any of the other 3 when they are playing well. Just mental strength is not enough otherwise I would have at least 40 slams!

      • hawkeye, it seems to me that I know more than you in some areas. You do not know why Rafa’s forehand leaks errors in matches. You do not know that it is the tiny drop in speed in the top athlete that is the primary cause of decline due to age. No doubt I will discover a few more such areas in due course. However this does not mean that I do not respect your knowledge or your wit.

        • “Loss of speed due to age, even a tiny fraction of speed, is the main reason for aging athletes to decline.” Absolutely. Jimmy Connors said long ago: the legs go first. It affects everyone, Fed included of course. Given the very small margins at the top level, even minor declines in foot-speed make significant differences. That’s what has happened to Nadal. (It also happened to Federer, but he was more than able to compensate with the larger racket. That’s why his results the last three years have been better than the previous three.)

  6. nadal has been the second best player this year (playing on hard courts). Now tha he plays on his favorite surface, he is the clear favorite. There are no mental problems this year. He is playing well and is hungry. Djokovic, muzza, wawrinka have done nothing of note this year.
    Rafa will beat them all. He might lose a set or 2 on the way, but I wont be surprised if he wins it all without dropping any.
    In fact, I dont even think he will play any of them, as in they might well lose in the early rounds

    • atul,

      I will be happy to see Rafa win whether he drops sets or not. I agree that he has been the second best HC player this year. I think he is more confident mentally than he has been in a while. Even last year once the clay season started, it was like we saw a different Rafa. He started playing really well and looked so much more like himself. If not for the wrist injury, who knows what might have happened. That is the one thing that concerns me – that Rafa stays healthy! I think if he is injury free, then everything else will fall into place.

  7. Oh I forget, Stan did have injury issues; he injured his knee at AO in the SF when playing against Fed; he played poorly after that at Dubai where he was the defending champion. He reached final at IW, meaning he’s recovering but couldn’t sustain that momentum and lost early at Miami.

    Kei too has his injury issues and couldn’t defend his runner up points at Miami. Raonic is another one who’s injured and had to skip Miami. If Djoko and Murray couldn’t get back into form, this may be one of the weakest field on clay that we have in years.

    • Question is..will we get to see it again? I mean if not at the alarming periodicity and frequency as earlier (lets be realistic) but atleast maybe at times..I dont remember seeing those unforgettable FHs ever in past 2.5 years(not sure even in AO i saw such unimaginable gets)

  8. BTW Nole has lost his confidence.

    Federer lost his after his back injury. He recovered physically but the mental side took a bit longer.

    Fed and Rafa are both on record saying so.

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