Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

The King of Clay’s ultimate goal this spring is title No. 11 at Roland Garros. But the current task at hand is accomplishing the same feat at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters.

Ten-time Monte-Carlo champion Rafael Nadal will be looking to triumph yet again in the principality when he goes up against Kei Nishikori for the 12th time on Sunday afternoon. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 9-2 (3-0 on clay), but Nishikori has won two of their last four encounters. They have not faced each other since the bronze-medal match at the 2016 Rio Olympics, where Nishikori prevailed 6-2, 6-7(1), 6-3.

Injuries have been a significant story for both veterans since then, but each one is heating up in plenty of time for next month’s French Open. Unsurprisingly, a return to the red stuff is just what the doctor ordered for Nadal–who did not play again on hard courts after retiring from his Australian Open semifinal showdown against Marin Cilic because of a hip issue. The top-ranked Spaniard clobbered Philipp Kohlschreiber and Alexander Zverev in his country’s Davis Cup quarterfinal defeat of Germany before cruising to straight-set wins in Monte-Carlo over Aljaz Bedene, Karen Khachanov, Dominic Thiem, and Grigor Dimitrov. Not one of the aforementioned opponents got to 5-5 in any set and none of Nadal’s Monte-Carlo foes took more than five games in total.

“I’m just going to take only the positives out of the match,” the No. 1 seed said after turning in a solid but unspectacular performance against Dimitrov. “It’s great to be able to play three, four matches back-to-back. It was great to start again on a good note. Today was maybe the match that I moved the best out of [them all]. I see a lot of positives for the upcoming weeks. I think physically also I’m at a good level in terms of moving well.”

Nishikori’s latest physical problem could be found in his right wrist, which forced him out of the Australian Open and led to a brief comeback at the Challenger level. The world No. 36 from Japan started slow on the main tour in New York, Acapulco, and Miami, but he has picked up the pace in Monte-Carlo. Nishikori punched his ticket to the title match by beating Tomas Berdych, Daniil Medvedev, Andreas Seppi, Marin Cilic, and Alexander Zverev. He needed three sets to scrape past everyone except Medvedev and he required a total of five hours and six minutes to survive Cilic and Zverev in the quarters and semis, respectively.

“It’s a tough final–as a Masters 1000 should be against a great opponent,” Nadal commented. “With Kei, we had a lot of good matches in our career. I know I have to play at my best to keep having real chances of success. It’s an important match for me tomorrow.”

“Rafa has been hitting very, very heavy, especially on his forehand but also his backhand,” Nishikori assessed. “He’s been playing very solid this week. I hope I can find a way to beat him.”

Even with all things being equal heading into Sunday, that would be unlikely at best. And all things are not equal. Whereas Nadal has coasted this week, Nishikori has to be running on fumes and there are still concerns regarding his wrist. Another routine day at the office should be in store for Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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59 Comments on Monte-Carlo final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Nishikori

  1. Rafa is the favourite and the better player so he should win but won’t it be nice if Nishikori wins?

    He just has to believe, not get intimidated, stay focused, aggressive etc.

    I believe in miracles 😂🤣😂.

  2. Hopefully Rafa can raise his level from today match,if he plays like he did in the first set it’s gonna be a pretty balanced match and Nishikori will have his chances. It’s great to have Nishikori back in a good form,he’s a great guy for the Tour!
    Vamos Rafa for the Masters record 💪👑🎾

  3. Don’t believe this. After the protracted multiple deuce game Nishikori promptly breaks Rafa’s serve. Back on serve.

  4. Rafa a bit shaky in this final; I guess he’s nervous as this is his first final since Shanghai 2017. Hope he wins this in straight sets.

  5. It very well could be that it’s because this is his first final. He’s missing shots he would normally make. He needs to serve it out and not let Nishi back in.

    15-30.

  6. I know Kei is a tough opponent on clay so this is a good test for Rafa; should Rafa wins this, I think it’ll bode well for him in Barcelona, facing potentially both Kei and Djoko who play similar style.

  7. Nervous set from Rafa! Made numerous ridiculous errors, but wins the set in the end! That’s what counts!

    Vamos for better game in the second set,Rafa!

  8. I’m telling you all- my prediction of Rafa not dropping a single set through the entire clay swing IS going to happen. I’ve never felt more confident in a “prediction” in my life. 🙂 Someone tell me, please, who in the current field of healthy players is going to win a set off of a confident Rafa on clay? Certainly not Novak. Not Thiem. Stan is out. Murray is out. Kei is not the same player he used to be. Fed wouldn’t even make it to clay Finals to face Rafa, and he’d throw his old back out anyway. There’s just no one. Any player who was once at least a threat to beat him on clay is either out injured, permanently not as good as they once were because of injury, or too old.

    I actually don’t think that it would matter even if Novak and others were still as good as they once were. I think a Rafa this confident in clay is just unplayable, even if he’s not playing HIS best. So therefore when the field is depleted, it’s so lopsided that I truly believe Rafa is capable of a perfect sweep of all sets through Roland Garros. Crazy.

  9. Congrats Rafa! MC #11 and Masters title #31! Back to leading position in Masters. Also 171 weeks at no.1, ahead of John Mac, so happy for him!

  10. This was a kind of expected scoreline. Rafa looked fresh. He will only get better from now on.

    Somehow I dont like him playing Bercy which makes him real tired with back to back tournaments.

    • I think he should be fine this year when he hardly played from Jan to March. As long as he doesn’t spend too much time per match, I feel he will not be tired, unlike in Rome last year.

      However, come next year, it may be a different story and esp when they’re going to extend the Rome tournament to be like IW/Miami. I hope he wins Rome too this year (ie has a clean sweep of all the clay events) and then forget about going to Rome next year onwards.

  11. King Rafa! Vamos!! Amazing. Rafa just rolled through what was supposed to be a tough draw. Can you do it again in Barca, Rafa? (Sheesh, tennis is merciless.) Otoh, Rafa will still be physically fresh and he gets a week off before Madrid.

  12. Such a thrill to see Rafa biting on a trophy again! There were some dark moments (after he incurred the hip problem) when it seemed like he might be heading for another long period of rehabilitation. His physio and fitness trainer deserve special commendations for getting him back into shape in time for the clay season.

    It doesn’t bear thinking about the records he might have broken had he not had so many extended injury layoffs.

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