Barcelona and Budapest preview and predictions

There will be no kind of lull in between the Monte-Carlo Masters and the next two Masters 1000 events in Madrid and Rome. That’s because Barcelona, a 500-point tournament, boasts a field that is basically worthy of a 1000-pointer. Even before Novak Djokovic asked for a late wild card, it already boasted Rafael Nadal, Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem, David Goffin, and Kei Nishikori. Then Djokovic threw his hat into the ring and things and the top section of the bracket soon resembled something out of the second week a Grand Slam.

The story is a much different one at the second annual Hungarian Open, but if nothing else it at least includes Lucas Pouille and Richard Gasquet.

Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell

Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: 2,510,900 Euros

Top seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending champion: Rafael Nadal

Draw analysis: There is no such thing as a tough clay-court draw for Nadal these days, but if there was…well…it would be this one in Barcelona. Nishikori, the Monte-Carlo runner-up, is the only player since 2004 other than Nadal who has captured more than one Barcelona title (2014 and 2015). They are on course to face each other for the second time in the span of five days, the next one coming during third-round action on Thursday. A perhaps rejuvenated Djokovic could await the winner for a quarterfinal contest in what is an absolutely loaded top section the bracket. There is some semblance of balance with Thiem on the other side, but Goffin is a potential semifinal foe for Nadal. Goffin’s quarter also includes Roberto Bautista Agut, Hyeon Chung, and Karen Khachanov.

In what should be nothing more than a race to finish runner-up to the top-ranked Spaniard, Thiem is on collision course for the third round with 2010 Barcelona champion Fernando Verdasco. But the most stacked part of the bottom half features the second-seeded Dimitrov along with Philipp Kohlschreiber and Andrey Rublev. Dimitrov survived a three-setter against Kohlschreiber in Monte-Carlo and they may go head-to-head again as early as round two in Barcelona. Rublev, who had a match point on Thiem this past week before losing 5-7, 7-5, 7-5, could face either Dimitrov or Kohlschreiber in the last 16.

First-round upset alert: Nicolas Jarry over Benoit Paire. Paire (No. 48) is ranked higher than Jarry (No. 65) at the moment, but that may not be the case for long. The Frenchman has struggled this season with a 10-9 record that includes immediate exits from clay-court tournaments in Marrakech and Monte-Carlo. Jarry, on the other hand, announced himself on tour with a breakout run through the Golden Swing—reaching the quarterfinals in Quito, the semis in Rio de Janeiro, and the final in Sao Paulo. The 22-year-old Chilean would also have a good chance against Carreno Busta in the second round, as this week’s No. 5 seed pulled out of Monte-Carlo with a back injury.

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Hot: Rafael Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Nicolas Jarry, Tennys Sandgren

Cold: Dominic Thiem, David Goffin, Novak Djokovic, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Gilles Simon, Tommy Robredo, Andreas Haider-Maurer

Quarterfinal predictions: Rafael Nadal over Novak Djokovic, David Goffin over Hyeon Chung, Dominic Thiem over Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Andrey Rublev over Pablo Cuevas

Semifinals: Nadal over Goffin and Thiem over Rublev

Final: Nadal over Thiem

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Gazprom Hungarian Open

Where: Budapest, Hungary
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: 501,345 Euros

Top seed: Lucas Pouille
Defending champion: Lucas Pouille

Draw analysis: Pouille could really use a successful title defense in Budapest as he continues his clay-court preparation for the French Open. The 11^th-ranked Frenchman, who triumphed at the inaugural event last spring, posted back-to-back runner-up finishes in Marseille and Dubai but has slumped since then. He lost his Indian Wells opener to Yuki Bhambri and did the same this past week in Monte-Carlo against Mischa Zverev. Even though Barcelona makes Budapest look like a borderline Challenger tournament by comparison, Pouille’s draw is not an easy one. The No. 1 seed awaits either John Millman or Radu Albot, could run into Hungary’s own Marton Fucsovics in the quarterfinals, and is on a track to meet Gasquet in the semis.

The bottom half of the bracket is especially wide open. Neither first-round bye recipient (Damir Dzumhur and Denis Shapovalov) has ever reached a clay-court final and Shapovalov has never advanced to any kind of ATP final. Dzumhur’s draw is friendly, but he may have to face fellow Bosnian Mirza Basic in round two. Shapovalov’s clay-court game—which appears to be shaky at best—is likely to be tested by Italians Paolo Lorenzi and Andreas Seppi prior to the semifinals.

First-round upset alert: Marius Copil over (5) Aljaz Bedene. This is the third career contest between Bedene in Copil, third in Budapest, and third in the span of two years. That’s right; they faced each other twice during last season’s tournament. Bedene won 6-3, 6-7(2), 6-1 in the final round of qualifying and prevailed again 7-5, 6-2 in the first round of main-draw competition with Copil as a lucky loser. Now they are going head-to-head again. Bedene is an obvious favorite, but he has not done anything since reaching the quarterfinals in Rio de Janeiro two months ago and Copil is a solid 8-6 at the ATP level in 2018.

Hot: None

Cold: Lucas Pouille, Viktor Troicki, Paolo Lorenzi

Semifinal predictions: Richard Gasquet over Lucas Pouille and Andreas Seppi over Jan-Lennard Struff

Final: Gasquet over Seppi

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!