Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the Miami Open final on Friday.
Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 7-3, including 3-1 on hard courts. That is not a particularly bad record by Fognini’s standards, however, and it has been even better for the Italian of late. He is an even 3-3 in their last six showdowns, a stretch that includes a shocking 3-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 comeback in the third round of the 2015 U.S. Open. Nadal has since won two straight at Fognini’s expense; 7-5, 6-3 on the hard courts of Beijing in during the 2015 fall swing and 6-2, 7-6(1) on the red clay of Barcelona last season.
Another Nadal-Fognini showdown could not have been expected when the draw was released with the two veterans in different quarters, but Fognini is in the midst of his best–and certainly most surprising–Masters 1000 result. No matter that the world No. 40 won a grand total of two matches in his first four tournaments of the season; he is suddenly in fine form. Fognini upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Indian Wells second round and is through to the Miami semis thanks to victories over Ryan Harrison, Joao Sousa, Jeremy Chardy, Donald Young, and Kei Nishikori.
“I (am) always feeling good (on hard courts),” Fognini assured. “Of course this one is the best (hard-court) result of my career at the moment…. At the moment I’m just happy. Of course it’s a big, big tournament for me. (I’m) feeling really good on court; happy about my performance. Of course the result, it’s positive. It’s like a dream, maybe.”
Nadal’s entire 2017 campaign has been stellar, albeit not quite dream-like simply because Roger Federer handed him a pair of defeats at the Australian Open (final) and Indian Wells Masters (fourth round). The sixth-ranked Spaniard is 18-2 against non-Federer opponents in 2017 and has advanced this fortnight by taking out Dudi Sela, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Nicolas Mahut, and Jack Sock. Only Kohlschreiber has managed to steal a set–which the German did in stunning 6-0 fashion only to go down 0-6, 6-2, 6-3.
Kohlschreiber and–to a lesser extent–Sock threw everything they had at Nadal and came up empty-handed. Fognini survived tough three-set tests against Sousa and Chardy, but the competition level from start to finish has been nothing like what the underdog will face on Friday. Nishikori was far less than 100 percent physically in their quarterfinal clash and even Harrison, less importantly, was massively hampered by a back problem in round one.
Fognini had never been this far in a such a big hard-court tournament and going one step farther at the expense of an in-form Nadal may be too much to ask.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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who ya got?
Well..i will still go with Rafa…sure Fog has the game to hurt rafa..i’m pretty pretty he will go on court and blast a winner all over place..Rafa game style who loves to rally and give a ball to his opponent’s BH multiple times and more often than not will leave a big gap on one side of the court..and Fog will feast on this deliciously tomorrow..
But,hey..this is also not Rafa of 2015…u will not make a fool of rafa this time around Fog!!…So,Rafa in 2 or 3..C’Mon!!
Rafa should not allow Fog to get under his skin which happened the 3 times that he’s beaten Rafa. Just come out and show who is boss Rafa. Rafa’s standard was very high against Sock and whilst Fog can play games and hit winners from anywhere catching his opponent out, he doesn’t have the weapons that Sock has.
Guess, this is the best present Flavia can get from Fog especially when they are expecting a baby. I think Fog was partly lacky as well, but no doubt he played great to get here.
Rafa OTOH has those different versions of himself and everything but continuity in his current showing. Tends to perform brilliantly in one game and then disaster in the next. Fog will sure look to benefit on it. However, I think Rafa’s game has evolved during this Miami enough to deal with Fog. As long as Rafa can get some free points on serve, and hit with more power to ensure Fog doesn’t have time to position himself for those amazing DTL forehands, Rafa will be fine.
Hope Rafa wins in two! Hope Rafa treats us with some of those beautiful winners we’ve seen last night. Again no TB please ?
Vamos Champ!
Rafa will beat Fog in 2. His intensity has been improving with every match.
I thought he played well against Sock. His ROS was better, forehand aggressive and less prone to errors and backhand counterpunching was solid.
What I didn’t like is that rafa used more body serves again. Sure, it worked for him here but I would like to see him go for the lines more! He will need that if he is to win the title.
Fog was up against a 60-70% Nishi. Thing is, he can step is up against Rafa and hit through Rafa’s topspin. His forehands DTL are always a threat to Rafa as they are very flat and Fog takes them early.
I expect Rafa to win this in 2 sets.
Success breeds success. Rafa is peaking nicely but he will need a good serving day to go through to the SFs.
Rafa in 3
If you’re logic you will say Nadal over Fognini in 2. But tennis isn’t always about logic, especially when Fabio Fognini is playing.
I still pick Nadal to win but in 3 tight sets and i wouldn’t be that much surprised if Fabio makes the big upset. You could say he got lucky so far but he is here. And Fabio could beat anybody in a good day, like he already did 3 times against Rafa.
More over i think Rafa played too good against Sock. Let me explain. Everybody knows tennis is about good feeling and sensations or away about frustration. It’s obvious Rafa had great sensations against Sock. How will he react if he has less good ones against Fognini ? I think the actual Nadal could be a little frustrated, especially if Fog is in a good day.
That makes many “if” but thats what i expect from this match. I hope it will be a good one.
i dunno. Nadal in 3 is probably the odds-on pick.
This is a very different Rafa that Fog will be facing. He got his wins against a Rafa who was in a terrible slump. Fog is not going to have his way with Rafa. When Fog puts his mind to it, he is capable of playing quality tennis. But I don’t see Fog frustrating this Rafa.
I take nothing for granted at this point in the tournament. But I do think that Rafa will be ready.
Nny!Agree!!Fog certainly will have his hands full this time!I think we will going to see another racquet abuse tomorrow!!C’mon Rafa!!Wooohooo!!
Fog has little say in this.
Another Rafa vs Rafa.
Nothing new.
Couldn’t agree with you more, Hawks…. The fact that we even have to entertain the idea that Rafael Nadal, a 14-time major champion and one of the best ever, could potentially have another difficult match against Fabio Fognini, let alone be at risk of losing to Fabio Fognini for the fourth time in 2 years, to me shows that the 2015 Fognini thing was entirely mental…
Rafa handled him the past two times they played, so I’d like to think he’ll be just fine mentally, but who knows? I expect that Rafa will not mess around, given the golden opportunity he has to get to the Miami final and have a good shot at that elusive title! If Fed doesn’t make the final, I really believe that this title will have been handed for Rafa to take in the final. I don’t care if it’s Kyrgios or Zverev- Rafa will never let that good of an opportunity to finally win Miami slip away, imo…
Kyrgios though.
He saves his best for the best.
He absolutely does. But we haven’t seen him take out one of the really top guys in a final yet, so I’m just not totally sold on Nick being consistent enough for a big win like that. He’s always been capable of being the big guns, but we haven’t really seen him put together a run yet at a Masters or slam where makes a long run with wins against really big players. If he beats Fed in the semis, which I wouldn’t be surprised if he did here, it would be that much harder for me expect him to then turn around and beat Rafa in the final, at a tournament that Rafa will do anything to win. I’ve just been waiting for Nick to make a really big run, and he’s got the chance to do it here! But until he finally makes one of those runs, I will have to stay a skeptic in terms of his consistency and his drive. Once he does that, I’ll officially be all-in on Nick!
Kevin..Acapulco was also supposed to be handed over to Rafa when Querrey made it to the final..we all know what happened…
Rafa has to play to win..no 2 ways about it..nothing will be handed over to him.
I also agree with the thought that its so frustrating for us to not be sure of any match Rafa plays 2015 onwards. I don’t blame us, we have seen way too many shocking displays past 2.5 years.
Rafa in two
Nadal in three. Fognini will dictate at times but won’t be able to sustain it, and Rafa will outlast him.
Sadly I think Nadal loses to the Flamboyant Fabio.
bold call
Rafa in two losing no more than 7 games.
If the on-fire, hitting a hundred winners, staying-positive Fognini shows up, we could have us a good match. If the typical not-caring, a hundred unforced errors, negative Fognini shows up, Rafa will roll…
Keep your mind focused and sharp like a laser beam, stay confident, be strong and fight bravely, Rafa!
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I take nothing for granted these days. I still think this match is on Rafa’s racket. If he comes out serving well with his forehand firing, focused and aggressive, then he should be able to handle Fog. If Rafa has a sluggish start or doesn’t serve well or goes walkabout, then Fog will make a match if it.
Fog won’t be feeling any pressure, since he was not expected to be here. He can come out and play freely, going for his shots. Rafa has to play freely also. He has to play his game, not let Fog distract him with any drama and just do his thing. Rafa knows how to beat Fog. He only lost to him when he was in a slump.
Exactly NNY, and, let’s not forget, that was during the worst period of his joking problema.
I think this was the right thing to say, pre-match. And Rafa came out laser-sharp. His best play of the whole match might have been in the first game and and a half. But Fabio did not come out playing freely, going for his shots. Not at all, from what I could see. Why not? He is an enigma, up there with Monfils.
Great start for rafa!!!Wooohoo!!
YES!!!Break!!!
Fog looks horrible right now. Rafa taking full advantage with some big serves and forehands.
YES!!!1st set rafa!!!Make it 2…