Miami R3 preview and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber

Rafael Nadal and Philipp Kohlschreiber will be facing each other for the 15th time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the fourth round of the Miami Open on Sunday.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 13-1, including 7-0 on hard courts. Kohlschreiber’s lone victory came when Nadal is often at his most vulnerable–the week immediately following a French Open title when the surface changes from clay to grass. At the 2012 Halle tournament, right after the Spaniard captured a seventh title at Roland Garros, Kohlschreiber cruised 6-3, 6-4 in a quarterfinal showdown. Nadal has since reeled off five wins in a row, most recently prevailing 6-3, 6-3 on the red clay of Rome last spring.

With Roger Federer–who took down Nadal in the Australian Open final and at the Indian Wells Masters–on the opposite side of the draw and potential fourth-round foe Grigor Dimitrov also out, Nadal should be in good shape to go for a while in Miami. The world No. 7 got off to a decent enough start on Friday afternoon, when he beat Dudi Sela 6-3, 6-4 without dropping serve.

In typical Kohlschreiber fashion, the 31st-ranked German is in solid but unspectacular form this season. He just barely missed out on the spectacular in Dubai, where he squandered seven match points against world No. 1 Andy Murray, lost a 30-minute tiebreaker, and eventually fell 6-7(4), 7-6(18), 6-1. Kohlschreiber is 10-6 for his 2017 campaign and coming off a hard-fought 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(4) victory over Taylor Fritz during second-round action. The No. 26 seed trailed 5-2 in the final set and watched Fritz serve for the match twice before storming back for the win.

Against Nadal, Kohlschreiber cannot afford the wild shifts in his level of play that were on display against Fritz. Unless the underdog is striking his one-handed backhand almost the way Federer has been hitting it this year, Nadal should enjoy mostly one-way traffic.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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171 Comments on Miami R3 preview and predictions: Nadal vs. Kohlschreiber

  1. Against Kohlschreiber, Nadal cannot afford the wild shifts in his level of play that were on display against Fritz, I mean Sela.

    See what I did just there?

    23UEs with 15 from the FH won’t beat many players including Kohlschreiber.

    While Rafa is 7-0 h2h on hard courts with Phillip “Glass” Kohlschreiber, only one was in straight sets (and even that one had a tiebreak). Every one of these matches, one could argue Rafa’s level at the time was better than it’s been since Australia.

    Unless Rafa returns to his AO pre-final level, this one’s gonna be close folks.

    So let’s all pretend Rafa’s (as Ricky describes it) “decent enough” performance vs Sela can be put down to first match characteristic jitters under windy conditions and take Rafa in three (including a tiebreak).

  2. Rafa has had tough matches against Kohls. He can give Rafa a match. Maybe it was the wind, but Rafa cannot afford all those forehand errors. He will need to be sharper.

    If Rafa plays better, then it might be a straight setter. But uf he has lapses and makes too many UE’s, then this could go 3 sets. But I do see Rafa winning.

  3. Rafa needs to play better. Forehand was vulgar against Sela so hoping that won’t be the case. He should win this in 2 sets.could easily go 3 sets if the forehand is still struggling.

  4. As much as I truly want the Clay Goat to reach Final and face the real GOAT, I am afraid Nadal may lose rhus match in 3 sets.

  5. Rafa’s FH may have been iffy the other day, and Kohls may be a tough player, but I just don’t see Rafa losing to someone of his Kohls’ relative caliber… Streaking Querrey notwithstanding, Rafa has beaten every player on Kohls’ level this year. I don’t see that changing now… Also I picked Rafa to win the title. 🙂

  6. rafa spent most of his practice session on hitting forehands…. he was practicing the combo of one heavy CC and then a flat one inside out to finish.

  7. And that was BEFORE the break.

    Rafa dumping his first serve on his first point was the tell. Then he followed up by horribly passive play and several UEs.

    The fearhand is back. But it’s Rafa who fears it now.

  8. This is kind of depressing. Kohls is playing pretty well but Rafa is SO DAMN TENTATIVE! He came out so playing such under-confident tennis.

    What I fail to understand is what has happened to Rafa’s serve! it is absolute crap at the moment. The first serves are so SAFE. He keeps hitting into the strike zones of players and and the body serves are NOT going to work all the time for heavens sake! Everyone knows you’ve been going for way too many body serves.

    He is about to get bagelled from KOHLCHREBIBER if he doesn’t save this game here.

    I try to be optimistic but this is shit tennis from Rafa/

  9. So 5-0 it is. Someone please explain me the mentality. You almost win the first slam of the year and then all of a sudden you get so under-confident? :s he was better in Acapulco but ever since he has come to North America, it’s been horrendous.

    Please Rafa, believe in yourself and do something in the next set.

  10. Kohls hasn’t beaten ANY Top 10 player in a Masters 1000 since 2011 having lost his last 19 encounters.

    You could tell the fear was back after the very first point.

    A far cry from his January level.

    #AnxietyIsEverywhere

  11. Bageled in his 1000th match? It’s pretty depressing, seeing him playing like this! I thought he practiced well?

    Why is he going CC all the time? I think he should elect to receive serve first in future, his serve is so poor that it get broken in his first service game so often!

  12. I am speechless…I don’t think I have ever seen Rafa play this badly in his entire career…and now they switch to Kyrgios match and I won’t be able to see the rest of the Rafa’s match…

    • yeah vmk, I am hoping he at least makes it competitive here or takes a set. Don’t want go into the clay season like this. He just needs to serve better and CALM DOWN a bit. Kohls is no federer!

  13. HATE THOSE USELESS ATTEMPTS AT BODY SERVES. They are mostly going to the hitting zones and Kohls is waiting for them. Please go for the corners and line at least twice in a game!

  14. Last year Murray was the only Big 4 playing well and finished No. 1.

    Now, Murray with a tear in his elbow.
    Nole lost in space along with Rafa.

    #GOAT2.0 to finish No. 1 in 2017.

    Amazing. Must feel just like the Weak Era. Does for me anyway.

    • I am just at a loss for words watching this. I cannot remember a set where I have seen Rafa so out of it. He stood there like a statue doing nothing.

      He don’t know what to think. Rafa gets to the AO final and now this?

      I don’t get it.

    • So true!

      BTW, Serbian Sport TV switched to Kyrgios DOUBLES match instead of Rafa??? So disrespectful and so damn wrong! Hope Rafa wakes up!

      Go Champ! You are better than this! Go!

  15. 121 MPH serve, his fastest of the match. He attempted to hit some corners with his serve and is trying to go for a bit more with his groundies. Fortune favors the brave! He needs to show more courage. 2-1 to Rafa. On serve.

  16. He’s playing defensive tennis, waiting for Kohl’s errors. Why is he playing from so far behind the baseline and hitting so short? Never learn.

  17. I really don’t like it when he’s just waiting for errors from Kohl, most of the time he can’t tell where Kohl will be hitting his next shot.

  18. Kohls level has dipped and Rafa is playing better (but not even close to AO level). Miami crowd is being really kind. They are cheering so much for Rafa.

    • Rafa is playing better, but that’s not saying much. Kohls has dropped his level, too.

      Rafa needs to hold his serve!

      • I am grateful that the crowd is behind Rafa. He needs it. Rafa is just going to have to find a way here. He has to get going.

      • He is serving A LOT better though. Baseline game is slightly better. Like I said, if he can just serve better and aim for the lines and corner more, he will get so much help. Why so afraid to try aggressive serves? body serves won’t work all the time. They are only good when you have the element of unpredictability.

  19. Now that Rafa has broken, if he wins the 2nd set, there is no way Kohls will pull this upset off… He will be way too I shock that he destroyed Rafa in the first set and then let him back in the match in the 2nd… He will fold like all the others against the big players.

  20. RT @BenRothenberg: Bagels eaten, for comparison:

    Nadal – 14
    Murray – 13
    Djokovic – 9 (won 6 of the matches)
    Serena – 8
    Federer – 4 (3 were in 1999)

  21. 95 MPH avg second serve speed for Rafa. That is 4-5 MPH above what you’d normally see from him. He went for a bit on both the first and second serves.

    • That is what Rafa was doing at the AO. I remember clocking the speed on Rafa’s second serves and he was in the mid 90’s. I have been wanting Rafa to get some more speed on his second serves for a while now.

  22. I really don’t understand Rafa, on the HCs, he should just go all out to hit hard and attack, since everyone else these days are doing it. His attacking skills is better than most, why don’t make use of them and instead allows others to dictate points and he ends up busy defending and at mercy of others?

    • it’s not that he doesn’t understand. He just lacks the belief and confidence to do it consistently. He is doing a better job at least now

      • But he’s always like that and that’s the problem! It’s a habit! He played badly the first set but Kohl did play well and being aggressive, not missing much. You can’t take away credit from Kohl in set one.

    • Always two ways of looking at it. Rafa was such a disaster in set 1 while Kohls, while playing some good attacking tennis, was actually made to look so good by Rafa’s dismal play. Now this was kohls but if this were Federer or Novak, people would have been like ‘Fed played with such aggression that Rafa didn’t have a chance’.

      I am not taunting anyone or saying this is the perfect analogy but the point is, when Rafa is playing badly, it often appears the other person is playing incredible tennis.

      Good stuff Rafa! Fortune favors the brave and you are showing courage. Playing aggressively!

        • Hawykeye, you understand that. I know many fed fans and Djoko fans who always behave like this! Rafa loses to a hard hitter, and they would be like Rafa had no chance as the other guy was too good. Whereas I tell them NO idiots, you’ve no clue how badly Rafa played. He MADE the opponent look so much better.

      • I agree with you, VR. To be fair, there have been a few instances where the racquet was taken out of Rafa’s hand to the point where he just wasn’t really able to impose his game. I do think his match against Federer at IW recently was one of those exceptions. Sure, maybe Rafa could have played better, but when someone is serving so well and is that successful with their aggression, and is constantly able to push their opponent back from the baseline, it’s just very difficult to impose your game! This is something that definitely doesn’t happen nearly as often as some people like to make it sound, however, so I agree with you that people like to jump to conclusions.

  23. More aggressive serving helping him so much! It was the root cause of his struggles in set 1. Look how much positive he is as compared to set 1.

      • NNY-
        That’s what’s so funny about some of the Rafa criticism- people talk like he is just knowingly not serving as well as he can! As if he’s saying to himself, “Well, I think I’m just going to serve poorly here…” When Rafa isn’t playing well, I’m preeeetty sure that he knows what he’s supposed to do… He’s just not able to do it well at that time for whatever the reason may be! Yes, it becomes a problem when it becomes a trend to do something poorly, like with Rafa serve lately. But some people act like he’s choosing to just NOT serve very well, like it’s a conscious decision… It’s pretty funny to me.

        • Kevin,

          Sorry for the late reply. Sometimes I miss comments while live blogging.

          You make a good point. For whatever reason Rafa wasn’t serving well at all in that first set. It frustrates me to see it happen, but I have to assume that he’s not doing it to drive his fans crazy!

          On the tennis channel they said in sets 2 and 3 that he only lost ONE point on his serve.

          I guess that Rafa was able to regroup after the first set and get himself together.

          They did show a short clip from Rafa’s post match presser. He said that when a player is doing everything well and not making any mistakes, all you can do is lose the set and then start again in the second set. He also said that he thought he played well in sets 2 and 3.

    • Not only his serving, but he adjusted his return position, moving back to return serves giving himself more time. They showed a graphic on the difference of his return positions between set one and set two; he’s having more success in set two by moving further back to return.

      • Yeah. His ROS is not good enough to take balls on the rise aggressively. One problem with the ROS from deep behind the baseline is that players now exploit his slower movement. This happens so often on the deuce court where people serve wide to his backhand and Rafa goes CC with this return. Players are waiting there and then go DTL with their forehand. This Rafa is sometimes not quick enough to cover that much court. If he gets really good length then fine, otherwise he is on the defensive.

        He needs to strike the right balance there.

        • You see, what Rafa should do is after returning, he has to make his way up closer to the baseline and closer to the centre of the baseline, and not just wait there to see where his opponent is going to hit – CC or DTL – and then react.

          Watch Murray, Murray also returns from further behind the baseline but once he returns the serve, he steps forward for the next shot.

          • That is a good observation! It’s true that Murray will start at one place for his ROS, but quickly take a step or two and move up.

            That would be a good thing for Rafa to do. I seem to remember him doing it at some point in matches, but I can’t remember when.

      • The tennis channel showed a graphic illustrating the adjustment Rafa made in his ROS position from the first set when he was much closer, to further back in the second set.

  24. This match reminds me of thr match with fognini that rafa had at beijing in 2013 where he came back after losing the first set handily

      • It’s not the CC BH, it’s the CC FH to Kohl’s BH that’s giving him problems so often in set one. Rafa can’t change his habit of attacking BHs, even when his opponents’ BHs may be solid as a rock.

  25. Now papa Nadal can have a smile! The whole family and team looked so worried earlier on; fortunately Rafa ups his level to take the second set and in control in the third now.

  26. Hawks-
    Why you so quick to give up on your boy? He’s up a break in third!

    If he lost the first set 6-0 to Federer or Djokovic, that would be one thing. But against Kohls? That’s always more likely to be a really weird hiccup as opposed to having thrown the match away… It’s kind of like when Djokovic lost the first set 6-1 to Bjorn Fratangelo last year at Indian Wells. Yeah, it was shocking, and I probably shouldn’t compare Fratangelo to Kohls, but everyone knew better than to just assume the match was over before it was even half way into the 2nd set.

    I understand that Rafa can be frustrating for you for die hards lately. But at least wait until the guy goes down a break in the 2nd haha!

      • Haha, and that’s why you have every reason to believe it might not end well. I just think it’s funny that you basically say (Paraphrasing obviously) Game, Set, Match, Humb1e, Condolensces to Kevin! so early! 🙂

          • I agree with you, Hawks, that he won’t win Miami playing like this. But I think he can get to the semis playing subpar since Dimi and Raonic are out, and I guess I’m expecting him to up his game in the semis and final (even if I don’t necessarily have evidence as to why he would). Although, as I said in a previous comment, if it ends up being a Rafa/Fed final, I will revisit the confidence in my pick once I have a better idea of their respective levels going into said final…

          • A poster here once said after Rafa lost a match that would have put him up against Fed that at least Rafa won’t make Fedfans happy.

            Can you believe that?

            But she was just a fair weather fan.

            I hope they do meet because that will mean Rafa is in another hard court final!

          • I’m not one to name names but here’s a hint on who it was:

            After Rafa lost to Raonic at IW SF:

            augusta08 says:
            March 21, 2015 at 12:13 am
            I think, it was better to lose today than make Fedfans happy tomorrow!

          • AT 12:53 AM,

            No doubt it was better NOT to make Fedlovers (bandwagon passangers included) happy!

    • Kevin (AT 11:11 PM)says: “Hawks-
      Why you so quick to give up on your boy?”

      I have already written: he’s a bandwagon fan.

  27. So what was the deal with that first set, does anybody know?

    Was Rafa being polite?
    Or was he only joking,

    Maybe Ricky can start a poll.

  28. Could not see the match but thank you Rafa for waking up! I believed in you!

    Thank God Rafa won this match! It would have had a disastrous effect on his already low confidence..,

  29. See, Rafa is always like that – back against the wall then he can play well to make comebacks. Why makes life so difficult for himself? Why doesn’t he just come out all guns blazing, rather than waking up the wrong of the bed so often??

    • Couldn’t see the match, but that was my reaction after seeing the bagel: guy hasn’t quite woken up yet. Kohlschreiber can play well, but Rafa must have been pretty bad in that first set. Amazing that his 1st serve pct. was 75% but he still couldn’t hold serve. That has to change if he wants to stay in the top 10.

  30. I hope he can start the next match just the way he finished this match!!

    He has a clear draw and should keep progressing.

    • I got a look at Rafa’s draw on the tennis channel after his match. Dimi and Raonic being out now really has opened it up. Next up – Mahut. It could have been Dimi.

      Sock and Vesely play later tonight. This is a real opportunity for Rafa, but I don’t know if he can play well enough to take advantage.

      I just want Rafa to go as far as he can.

  31. Rafa has only been bageled in the first set one other time in his career

    I should have stuck to my original pick for the match.

    #FirstInstincts

  32. Urgh!!I can’t believe rafa loves 0 so much today of all day!As if 1000th matches are not enough for him??I hope it will not become an obssession of him from today onwards!I should give him one on his head!LOL!!

      • Hawks…Speaking of tolerance..If u come to my house atm,u will see how i suddenly became very creative and imaginative person by switching my beloved and lovely sofa into a very sexy cow with a shapely legs and a bump at the right places!..I didn’t know i am this talented hawks!And all because of RAFA!!Urgh!!

        • Ooooooo-kaaaaaaay.

          Now there’s a mental image I did not need.

          I’m gonna pretend I didn’t just read that. LOL.

          It’s not easy being a Rafan MA.

          • Yeah hawks..being a rafa fan is the most hardest job in the world atm IMO hawks…Other than Nole fans that is!

          • Yeah hawks…like rafa said yesterday…15 years on tour is a long time,and it’s not always perfect..and he’s already on top of the world for many years…there’s must be a time when we have to get down to earth and be a normal human being again…IMO his injuries,his poor form,his strewn FH,his uncharacteristics UE’s that he made,his lack of speed,his back injury that i think that make his serves very very slow and ineffective…all this reasons are just that…a reason for nature to take place…it’s not rafa’s fault that he finally surrender to mother nature…it’s our’s for keep hoping and keep demanding that he will give us the best result even though he’s already unable to do that…

  33. Well at least he did better at the slam (ie AO this year) so maybe we can still hope for good results at the slams, FO in particular? If he can still produce results like MC and Barcelona last year then maybe that’s all we can hope for at the non slam events?

    • Yeah lucky…even in his poor form,i never stop believe in him..that one day the old rafa will emerge and swept everyone aside and win a slam again..his form is not too far away me thinks..i just wait patiently atm to see him tweaks one or two things in his game so it can be more effective and dangerous again…i know he’s trying very hard to overcome the difficulties whether in his head or his spirit…the key..be patient..

  34. Personally, I think that anyone who writes off a guy would was 3 service holds from winning the major that took place two months ago is nuts… If Fed can do it at 35, Rafa can absolutely do it at 30. Hell, Rafa isn’t even the age yet that Fed was when he won his previous slam in 2012! 🙂 I can’t claim that it definitely will happen, but it would take one bold (and imo moronic) human to say that Rafa will definitely never win another major…

    • Sampras was 18 in the world when he won his last slam.

      Rafa can do it but practising ground strokes is trying to fix the symptom, not the problem.

      • Can’t argue with you there, Hawks! It will be really interesting to see where he stands at Monte Carlo. I was really impressed with his form there last year. Beating Stan and Murray on the way to the title was impressive… So was his win over Kei in Barcelona. It was unfortunate that he wasn’t able to get Murray in Madrid, and wasn’t able to at least take that set off Djokovic in Rome. But he definitely showed a good improvement in form going into the clay season last year, and it would be nice to see him do the same this year. But first let’s see what he does in Miami! 🙂

      • Yeeeaaah, I’ve honestly been really stressed and busy with life lately, and just didn’t get around to it. 🙁 I really do want to in the future! Although I guess that if I am able to post comments on here, then I have no excuse for not filling out a bracket right? 🙂

        • Hehehe..yeah kevin!spot on!..But that’s okay…MC will come soon and please please join us this time around Kevin…it’s fun!I will wait for u okay?

    • Best hope for Nadal to win another major (in this order):
      1. Improve his serve (somehow, if possible/back permitting)
      2. Ditch Toni and hire a new coach with an attacking mindset and the willingness to take Rafa out of his comfort zone.
      3. Independent of 2, commit to coming into net more often to shorten points. This will become more important as Rafa ages and his foot-speed declines further.

      I am not sure that (1) is possible due to various injuries; and I think Nadal puts family too much above tennis (probably rightly) ever to do (2) -without which (3) is very unlikely to happen.

      I conclude that Rafa’s best chance to win another major probably passed two months ago.

  35. What is Carlos moya doing…why has he not made much difference to Rafa yet ? He wanted him to be aggressive but Rafa is anything but aggressive

  36. The serving was so much better in sets 2 and 3. he was going for the lines and the corners a lot frequently and mixed them up with body serves. His accuracy on the serves is not that bad so he shouldn’t be scared to do it. Like I said, players now anticipate his body serves and all it takes is one good split step to get into the right position once they’ve anticipated. If Rafa really wants to go for body serves, he should look at clocking 195-205 kmh serves at least. I don’t mind the occasional twist serve into the body but please, NO PREDICTABILITY.

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