Miami QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Sock, Nishikori vs. Fognini

Jack Sock has continued his stellar start to 2017 with a quarterfinal trip in Miami, but now it is Rafael Nadal who stands in his way on Wednesday. Kei Nishikori and Fabio Fognini are also aiming for a place in the semis.

(5) Rafael Nadal vs. (13) Jack Sock

Nadal and Sock will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the Miami Open on Wednesday night. Both of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way–6-3, 6-1, 5-7, 6-2 at the 2015 French Open and 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 a few months later on the hard courts of Beijing. The sixth-ranked Spaniard is still flying high two years later, and his 2017 campaign would be even better if not for losses to Roger Federer in Melbourne and Indian Wells. Nadal, who is through to the last eight thanks to defeats of Dudi Sela, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Nicolas Mahut, is 17-4 and has lost to the eventual champion in three of four tournaments.

As good as Nadal’s record is this year, Sock’s is superior. The red-hot American is 18-3 with titles in Auckland and Delray Beach, a big reason why he registers at a career-high 17th in the rankings and will likely climb to No. 15 even if he loses on Wednesday. Sock has advanced so far this fortnight by taking out Yoshihito Nishioka (via retirement), Jiri Vesely, and Jared Donaldson. It must be said that the No. 13 seed has been fortunate in Miami, as Nishioka was up  a break when he sustained a knee injury and Milos Raonic gave Donaldson a third-round walkover due to a hamstring issue. This is where Sock’s favorable draw ends, but it has never been easy for Nadal in this matchup and this story will likely be a similar one.

Pick: Nadal in 2 with at least one tiebreaker

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Fabio Fognini vs. (2) Kei Nishikori

As is often the case with Nishikori, the outcome of this one will likely be dictated by his health–or lack thereof. The world No. 4 from Japan fought past Federico Delbonis on Tuesday, recovering from a break down in the third set to prevail 6-3, 4-6, 6-3. However, Nishikori received treatment for an apparent knee issue on multiple occasions and he admitted afterward that it was a “tough condition.”

Up next for the second seed on Wednesday is a third career showdown against Fognini, who is 0-2 in the head-to-head series. Nishikori got the job done 6-1, 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4 at the 2011 Australian Open and 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 on the clay courts of Madrid last spring. Fognini has been his typically mercurial self in 2017, covering all spectrums in terms of his form. The 40th-ranked Italian won only two matches in his first four tournaments but clinched a Davis Cup victory for Italy (in five sets over Argentina’s Guido Pella), upset Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the Indian Wells Masters, and has been no-nonsense in Miami with defeats of Ryan Harrison, Joao Sousa, Jeremy Chardy, and Donald Young. Fognini looks strong enough both physically and mentally right now to capitalize if Nishikori is less than 100 percent.

Pick: Fognini in 3

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57 Comments on Miami QF previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Sock, Nishikori vs. Fognini

  1. Sock has all sorts of talent, but I’m just not totally sold on him yet in terms of big time scalps… There’s something about his attitude that reminds me of Kyrgios’ attitude. Like he cares, but not really. If that’s makes any sense at all. 😛 He could certainly change my view of him with a win over Nadal tomorrow! But, alas, I picked Rafa to win this tournament, so I gotta stick with him!

    • Kevin, I think you’re right about Sock; sometimes it looks like he’s coasting. And until recently, his fitness was terrible. He actually had a muffin-top not too long ago. But, like Kyrgios, I think he’s starting to get his *hit together. I think he will play well tomorrow. The key is really what Natashao said: which Rafa is going to show up? I’m picking this one to go 3 sets, with Sock coming out on top. As I said elsewhere, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Rafa take the first and Sock the next two.

  2. Ermm…Rafa will play at night where condition maybe a little bit cooler,and it usually the condition that will effect his topspin but the good thing is since Sock also has a similar/more heavier topspin than rafa,he maybe will have the same problem as rafa…but Sock has the advantage from his huge serves compared to Rafa..so,the key is who’s quick and smart to adjust and adapt to the condition better,they’ll win….my prediction?RRRAFA IN 2 OF COZ!!WOOOOOHOOOO!!!LOVE U RAFA!!C’MON!!

  3. Rafa is getting better match by match. It’s getting harder and harder now – Sock, then Kei or Foggy.

    Rafa has to be very alert and uses his guile to win this one; Sock serves big and hits hard, very difficult to counter against him. Like Rafa always says, he has to make it difficult for his opponents.

    After seeing how Fed struggled yesterday, I think if Rafa can play well to navigate his way to the final,he will have his chances to win the title. Kygrios may be playing well now but he has to beat red hot Zverev and then probably Fed, not easy for him. Likewise for Fed, he has to beat Berdych and then Kygrios or Zverev, may be too much for an old man, without a day’s rest in between matches, and after the week he had at IW.

    Hope Rafa beats Sock, then we can start talking about him reaching the final. Vamos Rafa!!

  4. The problem is you can’t be certain which Rafa is going to show up. I agree he is getting better as the tourney progresses but it’s not that difficult to play better than that first set against Kohl..,that was Rafa’s worst performance by far…Sock serves well and Rafa’s one lousy game and there goes the set. Hope the right Rafa turns up. Hope he can serve at least the way he was serving against Mahut. And I really hope he will move better to avoid missing some easy shots…and since I am making a wish list: I really hooe there will be no tiebreaker (hate when Rafa has to play a tiebreaker these days, my nerves tend to explode) and I certainly wish Rafa gets it done in two…and I hope my wishes come true! ?

    Vamos Champ!?

    • Natashao…Rafa sent me a message via a pigeon a while ago…he told me to tell u this..”Mira,please tell natashao,i will do my best to secure a winning tomorrow nite..hopefully in just 2 sets..but,if it goes to 3 sets that’s okay as well,as long as i’m winning,no?And also please tell natashao to prepare a full bucket of ice cream to cool her down,just in case she can’t handle her nerves and start to chew her sofa…tell her i love her and all my fans…and that not include u mira!”…Aww man!!Hehehawhaw!That’s it Natashao…So,IN RAFA WE TRUST!WOOOHOOO!!

  5. Hmmm, Nishi was struggling but one never knows with him. Fog is playing well and will be ready to fight to drag this match into a three setter something Nishi would not want…I say Nishi in 2

  6. Based on what I saw the other day, I don’t think Nish is near to being healthy. He might even have to retire, but unless Fabio implodes (always a possibility), I think he takes this one. He’s playing really well right now. Another guy with a ton of talent who has never had his head screwed on quite right.

  7. Tough match. Sock’s got a massive forehand and he can really flatten out his inside-out forehand. Rafa’s forehand will need to be working really well here and not make those bad errors.

    Sock hasn’t got a massive serve (Thank God!) but he can generate good pace on it. His second serve is decent as well.

    Rafa MUST serve well just like he did yesterday.

    Fed really peppered Sock’s backhand in IW and Rafa will look to do the same. I can’t wait for this one and quite looking forward to the battle of topspin!

    • Sock’s topspin FH will be to Rafa’s BH, unless he’s hitting it I/O CC or DTL.

      Rafa has to serve like in the Mahut match, and cut down on errors. He seems not moving very well to cover his FH corner, leaving it wide open for opponent to attack. He’s so used to camping at his BH corner that he exposes his FH so often.

      Funny thing is, Fed is also doing that these days, camping at his BH corner expecting everyone to attack it, so Agut was having his successes hitting to Fed’s FH making Fed ran so much to retrieve the shot and often he was late getting to the ball. Perhaps that’s how one should play against Fed.

    • Sock does go for inside out forehands against Rafa but he usually prefers to hit heavy to Rafa’s backhand. Igor Andreev , whose forehand was as heavy as Sock’s, also used to hit more inside out against Rafa once he saw that as a successful pattern.

      • Rafa will absolutely need to serve the way he did against Mahut. He will need the forehand to be firing on all cylinders. Sock is coming into this match playing extremely well with a lot of confidence. I expect him to come out aggressive, going for his shots. This is the time when I would expect Rafa to raise his level of play. He cannot afford a sluggish start. I hope Rafa’s backhand is sharp because I expect Sock to go after that shot.

        I think this could go 3 sets. Hoping for 2 sets, but think it will be competitive. I think Rafa needs to face a test and a challenge at this point in the tournament.

        I am not sure about Nishi’s condition. He’s had two tough 3 setters back to back. Fog is looking very sharp right now. Normally I would not think Fog has a chance. But Fog is playing good tennis and seems to be more focused at this time. It may well depend on how Nishi holds up.

    • I think it’s an easy 2 for Nishi. Super Fognini must surely be carrying mental scars from that massive choke job the last time they met.

      The knee issue seemed like tactical MTOs to me. Nishi was gliding and sliding without issue after those 30 sec massages.

    • I’m just being bitter because I took the over thinking Fognini would take more time to realize this match was so winnable. Despite the knee issues Nishikori has gone 3 sets way too many times this season and his service games have been incredibly easy for his opponents to get into. The threat of breaking that he brings is wonderful but similar to Nadal during his slump you need to take care of your own service games or you bring a big question mark into all your matches.

      Alertness and focus are unfortunate problems as a big favorite in early rounds but these issues would be much preferred to the stress that he must be going through being pushed in all his service games.

      • Hard to evaluate Nish because he’s clearly hurt. Yesterday he said something about his injury being not a small thing or something like that. Players don’t say that kind of thing unless it’s true: you either give your opponent an advantage, or make it look like you’re making excuses, or both. Once Kei heals up I think he’ll be back to his winning ways.

        • The only reason Fog is winning so easily is because Nishi is clearly hurting. He can’t even hit his forehand. Both times when Fog was serving for the set he was broken. Fog just got lucky with coming up against an injured Nishi.

          • That’s right Fog got lucky but he plays a good match too.
            But I agree with you, to beat Nadal or Sock he must raise his level up considerably.

          • Fog is a savvy, experienced veteran player who is capable of playing well. That is true. However, in this match he really didn’t have to play that well against an injured Nishi. That’s the sport. He won the match. But I think it will be very different against either Rafa or Sock.

  8. Funk it. I won good money this week. Took jack sock for $200 to win $500. If I lose its all good. Nadal has disappointed time and again so why not today in jack socks home court.

  9. Nadal hasn’t had to do too much so far. Sock is going to have to pick it up quite a bit to be competitive. Sock with his first game points.

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