Miami R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Medvedev, Tsitsipas vs. Shapovalov

The Miami Open heats up on Tuesday, as an in-form Roger Federer takes on Daniil Medvedev and young guns Stefanos Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov battle for a spot in the quarters. All eight men’s fourth-round matches are taking place.

(4) Roger Federer vs. (13) Daniil Medvedev

World No. 5 Roger Federer looked a bit rusty in his second round match against the Moldovan qualifier Radu Albot. The Swiss dropped the first set before righting the ship. There were no such signs of rust in his third-rounder. Federer dispatched Filip Krajinovic 7-5, 6-3.

Medvedev wasn’t quite as fortunate in his third round match. The young Russian took on towering American Reilly Opelka; Medvedev needed three tiebreak sets to send Opelka packing-and there is no day off for him before he meets Federer. Medvedev is ranked a career-high 15th in the world on the strength of a great start to the season, including a trip to the finals in Brisbane, a respectable fourth-round showing in Melbourne, and the tournament win in Sofia.

Federer and Medvedev played twice last fall; Federer won both encounters on hard courts. This won’t be a walk in the park for Federer, as Medvedev has been playing well all year. Still, the world No. 5 will go in as the favorite thanks to current form and their previous playing record.

Cheryl pick: Federer in 3

Ricky pick: Federer in 2

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(8) Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. (20) Denis Shapovalov

Regardless of who wins this fourth-round match, youth will be king on Tuesday in Miami. Stefanos Tsitsipas, the breakout star of 2018, is 20 years old; opponent Denis Shapovalov is just 19. And while Tsitsipas is ranked higher than Shapovalov, the Canadian has been in dangerous form all week.

The two men have met just twice on the pro tour: Shapovalov won the first at the Australian Open last year, while Tsitsipas got revenge in Monte Carlo. Still, though they aren’t strangers, this meeting will be almost like an entirely new experience. Since their last encounter, both players have evolved into much better players–with Tsitsipas taking the finesse approach to the game while Shapovalov likes to try to hit the cover off the ball.

Concerning for the Greek is that Tsitsipas looked a bit lackluster in his third-round win over Leonardo Mayer. Shapovalov, on the other hand, was magnificent in his win over Andrey Rublev. The Canadian has often had the tendency to play inconsistently, so Tsitsipas will stay have some opportunities, but if Shapovalov is striking it like he did on Monday night, it will be hard for Tsitsipas to keep up.

Cheryl pick: Shapovalov in 3

Ricky pick: Tsitsipas in 3

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20 Comments on Miami R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Medvedev, Tsitsipas vs. Shapovalov

  1. As classy as Medvedev is he doesn’t have the game to hurt Fed like he can most of the players outside the top 10.

    Federer in 2, maybe 3. Fed’s played a lot of matches past few weeks and could start to get tired.

    He was disappointed with his loss to another up and comer at IW and is looking to make amends. Looks very determined to me and he’ll need to be to beat an in form Shapovalov. Shapovalov still looks a bit green to me whereas Tsitsipas has proven he can mix it with the top 4. If Tsitsipas hasn’t lost to Aliassime, Shapovalov would have a better chance but Tsitsipas will be ready like it’s s grand slam final. I expect Shapovalov to spray a few more in a close contest.

    Tsitsipas in 3

    • Yes, he is born and lives in Moldova. The 2 countries have a lot in common historically and culturally. Some of of you may know that Ro and Md used to be one country, before they were separated. The majority of Moldovans’ mother language is also Romanian and about 1/3 of Moldovans also possess both citizenships.

  2. I really like both medvedev and Federer, but I like Federer a bit more. Fed in 3 but even if medvedev wins I won’t complain. Then I think and I hope shapovalov in 3.

  3. GOAT in straight….and Shapo vs Tpas is just a dream match up….almost worth driving over to Miami (f here in Naples) to see it!…Tpas in a hrad fought 3.

  4. Awesome match between Shapo and Tsitsipas, and a huge win for Shapo. Stefan came out firing and at the beginning I almost thought he was overpowering Denis. But as the match wore on, Shapo’s power began to tell, and he was just to strong for Tsitsipas in the end. He will have a tough matchup with Tiafoe, who has been playing better and better, imo, and had a great win over Goffin today.

  5. Didn’t get to watch the match but I’m disappointed that Tsitsipas lost. As a top ten player now, he should be beating guys like Shapo and FAA, both his juniors, yet he’s losing to them one after another at the Masters.

    I just noticed that Tsitsipas is doing quite badly at the Masters – losing early in most with the exception of Canadian Masters last year where he reached the final. Its not a good record for a top ten player; I don’t remember a top ten player having such bad results at the Masters during those times where the likes of Tsonga, Gasquet, Monfils and Simon were top ten players in their early to mid 20s.

    Tsitsipas better think of ways to improve at the Masters in addition to the slams, if not he has to play and win in so many 250 and 500 events to keep up the rankings, not an efficient way to go about it.

  6. Fed has picked up where he left off in the last round, playing great tennis and serving really well. Plus, the court is playing faster and faster as the days go by. If he can maintain this level you have to like his chances, though he will have some very tough matches coming up.

    • Yes, I was surprised at how easy it was for him. Medvedev, I think, has a bit of Kyrgios in him, attitude-wise. I think he can get down on himself and lose focus fairly easily. However, he is the opposite from NK in that he doubts himself most when playing the best players: he is something like 1-12 against the top 10. Once Fed figured out that just trading shots from the baseline was a bad strategy, and started mixing in slices and drop-shots, Medvedev didn’t really have any answers.

      For all that, Fed played really well, and I don’t think there was any way he was going to lose this match regardless of how Medvedev played today.

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