It turned out that everyone else in Indian Wells was playing for second place, given the dominance of Roger Federer. But with Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev, and Juan Martin Del Potro all packed into the same quarter of that draw, second place–and third, and fourth–was wide open.
The Miami Open–first place included–should be even more up for grabs, especially with Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic out due to elbow injuries. That means Indian Wells runner-up Stan Wawrinka is the No. 1 seed ahead of Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, and Federer.
Another tough quarter awaits Federer and Del Potro in Miami, where they could go head-to-head in the third round. It would not be unfair to argue that the winner of that possible showdown will go on to take the title, although Del Potro would likely have a hard time backing up an upset of Federer by beating Roberto Bautista Agut in the next round.
Elsewhere in the top half of the bracket, Wawrinka is in a section that also includes Kyrgios, Zverev, David Goffin, and John Isner.
On the other side, potential quarterfinal showdowns are Nishikori vs. Marin Cilic and Raonic vs. Nadal. A rematch of an Australian Open semifinal thriller–won by Nadal–could see the Spaniard go up against Grigor Dimitrov in the fourth round. Dimitrov is 17-3 this season with losses only to Nadal, Goffin, and Sock (all in final sets).
Intriguing first-rounders include Donald Young vs. Dustin Brown, Fabio Fognini vs. Ryan Harrison, and Benoit Paire vs. Martin Klizan, Kyle Edmund vs. Jared Donaldson, Alexandr Dolgopolov vs. Malek Jaziri, and Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Tommy Robredo.
Seeds who could lose their opening match:
(18) John Isner–vs. Thomas Bellucci. Isner is not in good form, has never fared well against lefties, and Bellucci would basically have home-court advantage in Miami even though this is technically in the United States.
(22) Sam Querrey–vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili. Querrey recently captured a stunning title in Acapulco. He will be content with that result for at least a few months.
(27) David Ferrer–vs. Karen Khachanov or Diego Schwartzman. This is the beginning of the end for Ferrer, whose disappearance from the top of the rankings is becoming more and more obvious with each tournament.
(30) Joao Sousa–vs. Fabio Fognini or Ryan Harrison. Sousa is tougher mentally than either of his two potential second-round opponents, but the discrepancy in sheer talent level may be too much to overcome.
(32) Paolo Lorenzi–vs. Adrian Mannarino. Lorenzi shouldn’t be seeded; and he wouldn’t be if not for the withdrawals of Djokovic, Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and others. Mannarino is a crafty fast-court player who often does well in Miami.
Predictions
Quarterfinals: Nick Kyrgios over Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem over Roberto Bautista Agut, Grigor Dimitrov over Milos Raonic, and Lucas Pouille over Fernando Verdasco
Semifinals: Kyrgios over Thiem and Dimitrov over Pouille
Final: Dimitrov over Kyrgios
[polldaddy poll=9701254]
Chardy def Cilic 64 26 63.
Now, the follow up. If it’s age, you’ll say, how can you explain Federer’s play now? Pretty simple. The big change, as I’ve said, came in 2014, with the new racquet. His results since then are much better than the previous 3 years, which is very much the opposite of what would expect for a tennis player his age. However, Fed never fell far from the top; even with age he could still play and sometimes beat the best players in the world. With the new racquet, he suddenly became the 2nd best player -at age 32-33, and the only one who could reliably beat Novak, even if not at the slams. The time off last year obviously helped, and the new coach probably as well. But it’s mainly the racquet and the new-found confidence with the BH. Given Roger’s age, it could end any day. That’s why I like to speculate about what could have been.
Welcome to Joe Smith’s echo chamber.
http://hamiltonsthoughts.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/EchoChamberlarge.jpg
Joe Smith, I have to shoot off to haven’ Firstly, Nadal was a mere shadow of himself in 2015 and poor guy had injury plagued 2014 and 2016 so yeah obviously he would only have Djokovic! Not to mention that Murray was playing crap after his surgery and it was 2016 when he again hit his top form. It was pretty evident. SO OBVIOUSLY, there was only djoko!
what Fed’s doing at this age is beyond INCREDIBLE. He is setting new standards and I can only respect him for that. What I field to understand is how can someone NOT acknowledge how weak the field was in 2003-07 !! It is not about Fed but the field. And when you pit a GOAT candidate in a field like that, he would obviously destroy it! That time period showed what Fed was capable of but nothing changes the fact that he didn’t have rivals on all surfaces; something which he himself admitted.
oops the opening sentence got erased a bit. I meant I have to shoot off so haven’t responded to your first post.
It’s called selective bias VR.
But I agree with you, especially about Fed’s achievements despite being a fan of one of his rivals, like yourself.
And that’s what separates tennis fans from player (esp. Fed) fanatics.
A common fed-fanatic affliction…confirmatory bias.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
All tennis fans are afflicted to some minor degree but it commonly leads to blindness when left untreated by fed-fanatics.
All except for Captain Pierce, of course.
Nope. Your blindness proves my point repeatedly.
I enjoy federers resurgence.
But you are incapable to enjoy Nadal because you can’t separate tennis and Federer.
You’re welcome My fan.
Actually, I enjoy Nadal quite a bit. In the same way that I enjoy the Dallas Cowboys and New York Yankees when they are dominant. Many sports enjoy a foil to cheer against. These days, when Rafa is past his prime, I cheer for him when he’s playing young guns like Kyrgios. I never liked Connors until he had to play an 18 year old Agassi. But, to me, Nadal in his prime -only on the court, to be sure- was a bit of a bully. I never liked the sneer and I think his great competitiveness went a bit too far. Rosol claimed Rafa put a shoulder into him on the changeover during that Wimby match, and I can believe it.
Federer cursed out umpires, cheated by pointing at the wrong marks on clay against Rafa, yelled at the French Crowd to shut up, smashed racquets, admitted to gamesmanship by taking a bathroom break at Wimbledon to wait for the sun to move.
Cry me a river. Poor Joe Smith.
?
Fair enough. I don’t defend any of that. In general, I think it’s pretty silly to look at sports stars as role models. As I said, there’s a fair bit of irrationality that goes into determining who one backs. That doesn’t mean that one’s analysis is necessarily infected with irrationality (making no judgment about my own case, or yours).
You dont defend it but simply focus on the examples that fit your confirmatory bias while involuntarily ignoring the examples that don’t.
Now maybe we’re getting somewhere -if you can resist the name calling. I don’t intentionally ignore evidence that doesn’t support my case; nor, I imagine, do you. I haven’t seen any evidence so far that you’re less susceptible to confirmation bias than anyone else here. My argument about age being the chief factor in Fed’s decline stands. Lucky is trying to engage with it, so I’ll address his arguments.
You haven’t seen it because you are blinded by your confirmatory bias.
How is this so difficult for you?
#Rhetorical
Joe Smith, I thought I had already explained why a 29-31 year old Fed wasn’t able to do better than a 33-35 year old Fed in my earlier reply to you? How come you are here repeating the whole issue again? A sign of you refusing to accept facts maybe? VR is basically explaining the same thing to you again!
That’s what Joe does. Talks in his own circular echo chamber.
#BrokenRecord
VR
‘2008 onward was a more competitive era and then 2010/11 to 2013/14 it was epic because three GOAT contenders were there and don’t forget Sir Andy Murray who is far better than all of fed’s rivals (excluding Rafa) in the 2003-2007 period’.
So, now you think Nadal is past his prime because he is past his age. While you say 2010/2011 and 2013/2014 was strong era when all of three were Goat contenders…For the sake of love, dont you think in 2013/2014 Federer was much older than Nadal’s current age? Even in 2011 he had same age as of today’s Nadal…? Wasn’t Federer past his prime then then when you think strong era started? Trust me there has neither been a weak era nor been a strong in any sport…it is the biggest illusion on earth. Its dominance of players which give the illusion of strong or weak era..In reality there is none…But it is upto you if you can give self satisfaction to degrade the achievements of Federer of 2004-2007..a real dominance…
No, Asif. I am not a blind Rafa fan nor a fed hater and if you’ve been following my posts for long, you might know. Tennis has always had these phases and the time with three GOAT candiadats having the potential to play their best is THE GOLDEN ERA. Please answer my question of Ferrero becoming world no.1 in 2003? can you imagine that guy as world no.1 in a field with Fed or Rafa or Djoko or even Murray?! NO WAY.
To answer your question, Nadal is not outside his prime because of age. It is because the poor guy has had various injuries over the years and they take a HUGE toll on a player. He had a miraculous 2013 but then got injured in 2014, and then even had appendicitis ! 2015 was understandably his worst year. How can you trust your body when every time you reach the summit, it throws you from there by giving you a new injury! At least have some empathy for players. I never comment much on fed’s 2013 because I know he was good shape for most of that season. Let’s be fair here wherever we can.
Also, Fed’s playing style is not as dependant on athleticism as Rafa’s so it is logical that age will affect Rafa more. And don’t forget that rafa’s mileage on the pro circuit started when he was 15! He started a couple years earlier too. Given the injuries he has had and his playing style, he would of course be affected more.
Nothing to take away from Fed though. Total respect for what he is doing. He is a genius and continues to shock the tennis world. I will also miss Roger Federer when he retires to be honest 🙂
*because he was LACKING good shape for most of the season.
Vamos Rafa, i am neither a rafa hater…I truly praise him and I would like to see the greatest clay court player of time winning his 10th RG title…Looks very sweet…
I can see you are not a Rafa hater, Asif. I’ve had enough experience with them to quickly point out haha.
I also understand why being a Fed fans you would want to challenge the weak era thing but trust me, while there is not an even an iota of doubt about Fed’s greatness, that field in 2002-07 was very disappointing when compared to what followed. You just can win 3 slams every year when you have 3 GOAT candidates and Sir Andy. 2011 is actually a good example too. Rafa had everyone including Fed sorted but then he was stopped by another GOAT candidate. Rafa would have won 3 slams and ended the year as no.1 by miles. Unfortunaly no relief for Rafa! Haha.
Vamos: you say Rafa is not outside his prime because of age, but because of injury. Leave aside the fact that advancing age makes one more susceptible to injury so that it becomes harder to separate the two. Focus on the fact that Nadal is nearly 31. Why do you think he, of all people (with his style of play) would be immune to the decline that inevitably comes with age? The best explanation for the fact that he is playing at a lower level than he was 7 years ago is because 7 years ago he was in his prime; now he is past it. The same logic applies, with variation of course, to every player, including Federer. As I said above, it best explains why Roger tailed off in 2010. Again, the weak era stuff is the topic of fans, not players. Professional players know that there are no easy matches, and certainly no easy GS titles. Each tournament is different, and the best two players make it to the final. That was true in 2004 and it is true today.
When did Rafa turn 31?
So the best 2 players made it to the AO 2017 final. What’s your case?
Joe smith,you just picked one line from my post. Read the whole posts where I have explained how and why age has affected Rafa even more. But, 27-28 is not the age to start declining in today’s age, esp when you have a playing style like Federer’s. Nadal was 27-28 when he dominated in 2013 and looked BETTER THAN EVER. He was so damn unlucky to lose that AO final in 2014 and getting all those injuries. Otherwise, his playing level was incredible his 2014 FO forehand was a MONSTER.2015 was less about Rafa being slow on the court due to age but more about suffering from anxiety after he lost faith in his body.
What Fed is doing at 35 is incredible and he is setting new standards. But, to say he started declining due to age after 27 is ridiculous to be honest. You miss 2008 when Rafa actually announced he was now ready to win on all surfaces. He was better than ever at RG, won WImby and Olympic Gold. Trust me, were it not for that ridiculous scheduling he had to undergo because of Olympics, he would very likely have faced Fed in the USO 2008 final and I have little doubt what the outcome would have been. But that’s something that never happened so I’ll stop. AO 2009 , drained Rafa played inspired tennis and defeated the favourite Fed. SO was it age ?! NO. No coincidence that Fed won 2 slams in a row and was miraculously stopped by Delpo at USO. And don’t attribute Soderling beating Fed entirely on Fed’s decline as a player. He won AO 10 playing at a very high level. That match against SOderling at RG was on a very damp clay and really suited soderling. Soderling was a very dangerous player in that period and it happened. Following Delpo’s and Soderling’s runs in 2009. big hitters had started to make more inroads anyway.
When someone dominates for quite a few years, all the eyes are on you and the whole field is finding ways to beat you. Your weaknesses slowly get exposed and players do find some winning patterns. Rafa showed the world how by breaking Fed’s backhand you can beat him. Delpo showed how power game can do it. Djokovic also relentlessly attacked Fed’s backhand in 2008 AO semi to show some patterns. Rafa has also suffered more ever since Djoko has exposed some winning patterns against the spaniard. It is a very natural process.
*I meant Roger winning 2 slams in 2009 after Rafa’s injury was no coincidence.
You say Djoko’s prime was 2009 and Djoko was also 28 at that time! Gone are the times when players start declining after 25-26 due to age factor. These athletes are fitter and stronger than ever. Also look at Wawrinka who reached his prime in 28 or something.
Vamos: Now it’s you who aren’t reading carefully. I said Fed started declining in 2010, when he was nearly 29. He claims to have had mono in 2008, which (I think) he would cite as the main reason for his not playing as well that year. I take no stand on that. But 29 is as good an age as any to pick for the time when top male tennis players start to decline. As I said, a good case can be made that it is true of the big three. Btw, I would never say that Novak’s prime was in 2009. I think it was last year!
I read it completely fine, Joe. That’s why I wrote ‘you are missing 2008’. I know you said 2010 but how you ignored 2008-09 is nothing but fan bias. I can excuse him for losing AO but he was playing pretty well in the EU clay court swing. Pushing rafa to 3 sets in hamburg, actually having a 5-1 lead in the first set. Rafa just moved to an extraterrestrial level in 2008 RG. Fed was playing very well in Wimb 08 and destroyed Safin in straight sets in the semi. Most of the people had picked him to win. Rafa was edging closer and closer on grass and it is very logical that he finally beat Federer! He was definitely the superior player.
Fed was again playing at a very high level in 2008 USO and the AO 2009. He was soundly beaten in the fifth set 6-2 by Rafa.
2008-09 are actually very important years to look at and understand.
I am sorry but there is no way Fed would have competed with Rafa of 2010 anyway. That Rafa was even serving like a monster.
And no, 29 is not necessarily the age now. The playing age is increasing across all sports due to improved fitness regimes, better diets and facilities and medical advice. Wawrinka is an example I gave. He started peaking 28-29 actually.
While age would have its effect, the reason his slam winning rate reduced is Rafa and Djokovic. After all, the great man was more than capable of demolishing the ‘rivals’ he had in that 2003-07 stretch. What changed was that he had Rafa and Novak.
Joe can’t hear you VR.
#ComfirmatoryBias
While Fed might have slowed down with age, his game has gotten a lot more well-rounded over the years. His backhand has actually improved a lot even with his older racket. Look at his backhand in WTF 2011 against Rafa. Rafa mentioned before their semi that Fed’s backhand is better than ever now so he needs to be careful.
Fed had not lost a set and had dropped serve only twice in this path to the Wimbledon 2008 final. Before the match he was like ‘Don’t write me off yet. This is my part of the season now.’ He was playing pretty well and was very motivated to prove a point.
Rafa was making great progress on grass and after nearly getting it done in 2007 , he crossed the finish line in 2008.
Vamos: I agree that 2008-09 are terrifically important years in comparing Federer and Nadal. Contrary to popular conception amongst Nadal fans, however, there’s a good case to be made that Federer was actually better in those two years, at least if we judge by overall performance in the biggest tournaments, namely GSs. They both won 3 slams in those two years, so that’s a push. However, Rafa’s best performance other than those victories was to make the SF (3 times). Fed, in contrast, made 4 finals and one SF. In other words, his weakest performance at a slam during 2008-09 was at the 2008 AO, when (he claims) he had mono and shouldn’t have competed at all. After that 2 year period, he went on to win the 2010 AO. That capped his incredible run which I mentioned at the slams, from 2004-10. After that, as he neared 29, he declined, by the objective measure of actual performance at the most important tournaments, the slams. Now, I don’t deny that there are other factors. The most obvious ones are Nadal’s great slam victories over Roger in 2008-09, along with some of the other data you mention. I am not ignoring these. But I don’t see how one can deny the importance of the overall comparison at the slams. It’s at least not obvious that Nadal was the better player overall in 2008-09, his clear advantage in their H2H notwithstanding.
Fed apparently thought so. He couldn’t take it anymore. Lucky for him, Rafa was injured for French Open and Wimbledon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2X6AfufPFYQ
A real dominance, yet Federer aside (other than a non-peak Rafa), Federer faced no consistent player(s) in slam finals from because his opponents were virtually random mediocrity other than a burgeoning Nadal. Other than Federer, none of the mediocre field of the failing so-called “competition” could make it to more than four slam finals out of 48 slam final spots (and Roddick was the only one to even do that).
Proof of a very weak and incredibly boring era with ZERO players other than Fed able to consistently make it to slam finals.
That lot missed their collective calling to the Washington Generals.
Compare this to 2008-2013 when FOUR players made it to seven or more out of a possible 48 slam final spots:
Nadal (13), Djokovic (11), Federer (10), Murray (7)
Hilarious.
#YoureWelcome
@Hawkeye, why are you trolling yourself..If federe’s so called weak era players are not being able to reach finals but federer still does….what does it mean? It automatically proves that Federer is the man of all eras..still giving competetion to ‘pursumely’ strong era; in fact making strong era for others…just like Djokovic got none of the competetion apart from Federer in his prime 2014-2016 years…If Federer had weak era, than how on earth it is only Federer who gave stiff competetion to prime Djokovic (2014-2016)..and still doing…
what others were and are still doing or hiding in current ‘strong era’?
You still getting it wrong. It is NOT about what Fed’s capable of.It’s about how crap that field was! The 2003-07 period definitelt showed how great Federer was but it also showed how pathetoc the rest of the field (barring Rafa) was ! They couldn’t even reach slam semis and finals consistently so how can you expect them to stop a GOAT candidate from winning slams and staying at no.1.
Good sfuff hawks.I was waiting for you to put these numbers here haha. You are right, none of those players were consistently able to reach slam finals and semis. They were also hopeless when it came to challenging for the top spot. Not even a single player from all of those were a ‘complete package’.
Fedfanatics can’t process evidence and simple facts that contradict their confirmatory bias.
Left untreated, they are ex-tennis fans that are tragically and terminally blind.
Sad.
More excuses (and self-satisfied sign-offs) from Captain Pierce. Let’s see you engage with some of my arguments…or do you find it too boring? Federer dominated when he was in his prime (apart from the greatest clay court player ever), and then started to tail off as he reached 29. A simple explanation, the latter part of which also happens to apply to his two chief rivals. No weak era nonsense needed.
Already disputed but you are blinded due to your confirmatory blindness.
Any attempt to educate you would be futile.
Lost cause I’m afraid. I don’t wish to give you false hope. Tragic.
oh woe is me! My one hope -a proper education from Captain Pierce -dashed!
At least you can revel in your ignorant bliss.
It’s all you have left.
Sad.
Dolgo loses e the 1st set against Jaziri then throws in the towel, so Jaziri goes through.
As long as I was happy about Federer winning Australion Open 2017, I was truly sad for Rafa. The poor sould had such an incredible opportunity at Australion open 2012 too..He could have won 2014 Australion open too had he not injured. I think more than anyone Rafa deserves double carrear slam..May be federer deserves too…But I would be more thsn happy if Rafa somehow manages to win AO 2018 ultimately achieving the deserving feat.
Correction:
The poor soul had such an incredible opportunity at Australion open 2012 too
These arguments are so pointless… Pro-Rafa people will always think Rafa is the best. Pro-Federer people will always think he is the best. And guess what? That’s totally expected, and absolutely fine!
The indisputable truth is that arguments can be made for why each of them stands out from everyone else. That is why the GOAT discussion is so damn ridiculous- the term “Greatest” is so incredibly subjective. Anyone who thinks that the title of GOAT in tennis is anything but an opinion is simply wrong. It may become more acceptable for someone to be considered the objective “greatest” of a specific measurable area. But the “overall greatest tennis player of all-time (or as Rafa would say, “the greatest of eh-history”)? Sorry, but there just is no right or wrong answer because it’s an opinion! There is no question that arguments can be made for Federer or Nadal being the greatest player ever, as well as others (imo, Sampras, Laver, and Djokovic)…
But I really just don’t understand why there is such an obsession with there HAVING TO BE a single greatest player of all-time… It drives me absolutely crazy that we can’t just have a sort of Mt. Rushmore of guys who really stand out from all the rest for their unique reasons, and just appreciate all of those reasons why those guys are amazing. Maybe one reason I have trouble understanding this obsession with your guy being better than the other, and feeling threatened by people talking up the other guy, is because my favorite player just was never quite on the level of those 5 guys I named before. Don’t get me wrong, there’s no denying that Andre Agassi is an all-time great, (in my opinion on the level directly below the 5 greatest, along with dudes like Borg, Connors, etc.) but I know that he is not quite on the same level as those top guys. If Agassi had taken tennis a little more seriously early in his career and ended up with like 12 slams to go with his career slam, perhaps I would have felt some need to defend his honor against those “typical Sampras-tards”! 🙂 But alas, I deeply admire Sampras’ game, Andre was just not Pete, and I was able to accept that many, many years ago. So the GOAT thing is just something I cannot for the life of me wrap my head around. We’ve got goatS, PLURAL, people…
Greatest of ALL time is totally shit. I prefer ‘greatest of his generation’. I use GOAT in my posts as it is easier to write than the whole greatest of his generation lol. Otherwise, there is no such GOAT.
BTW, just for the record, GOAT is not shit.
Claiming that others should agree with you on who Is GOAT is shit.
There is a GOAT.
Kevin,
Bravo, bravo! I have been making your point to no avail for some time now.
I have never understood this need to have a designated Greatest Of All Time. It is subjective! It is opinion! Yet the argument rages on. It’s Fed! No it’s Rafa! On and on and on it goes ad infinitum.
I have always been in favor of a group of the greatest of all time, your Mt. Rushmore argument. I would include Fed, Rafa, Sampras and Laver. Maybe Borg. I think now that Novak has entered that group.
I think that is the fairest and most reasonable way to do it. A group of tennis greats who achieved a level of achievements above all others.
The user interface of commenting section of this website is somewhat confusing and sometimes we miss the replies because of not being able to know automatically if the reply has been made..
Dear Ricky, I am a Software Engineer…If you want I can help you about it to make the commenting section more dynamics…
Of course, I would love to do it free of cost…
Correction: *dynamic*
This is just a wordpress setting.
Doesn’t require an engineer to figure that out.
Back in 2014, I was actualy of the view that if Rafa wins double career slam , he will be the best of this generation. Then, poor Rafa’s injuries and anxiety issues and Fed challenging the new king Djokovic. Then again before AO 17 final I was like the winner will be the best in my view. Fed winning over Rafa in 5 sets (coming down from 1-3 in the 5th) was incredible and I now think Fed has the lead in the greatest of this generation debate. I can make argumemts for Rafa too but I am waiting for the spaniard to achieve a bit more 🙂
Yup, AO final winner would decide current GOAT for me regardless who won (despite what Kevin said) just as Rafa became GOAT in 2013.
Still up for grabs.
I, personally, don’t think it’s really fair to the big three in judging which is the best of this generation because they all had their various peaks at different times. Fed is 5 and 6 years younger than Rafa and Novak, respectively. As Federer’s absolute peak was starting to dwindle around 2008, when Rafa entered his non-clay peak (Rafa was never not peak on clay 🙂 ). Even though Rafa is only one year older than Novak, Rafa was a real heavy hitter on the tour a few years before Djokovic became a factor. So it makes sense then that there was only truly a couple years where Rafa’s and Novak’s peaks overlapped (2011-2013).
This is obviously my opinion, and I know that Hawkeye will surely disagree with all of this haha. But the point I am trying to make is that I don’t this it’s really fair to the three of them, especially to Rafa and Fed, to try and crown one of them the “best of their generation” when there really wasn’t much time when all three of them were at their top-dollar best… For me, the time that was closest to having the Big 4 all at or close to their best was 2012. Djokovic had his Aussie Open win and eventually ended #1, then Rafa turned the tables on Djokovic and dominated the clay season, Fed played really well again beating Djokovic at Wimbledon and getting to #1, and then Murray finally won his first slam. Big 4-wise, that was as good as it got.
I also don’t like to think of someone being the best of this “generation” because the game is so different than it was even like 7 or 8 years ago. It’s just another example of how there are too many variables and specifics for it to not be subjective.
Haha, 5 and 6 years OLDER, of course. 🙂
Jo Smith, how can you judge that someone has passed his prime when he has not been able to play at 100% fit?
Confirmatory bias and wishful thinking.
That and a heaping dose of chronic frustration LOL.
Nad: As I said to Vamos, the best explanation of Rafa’s decline since 2014 is age, which is quite standard for top players. Part of that involves greater susceptibility to injury, which is of course part of getting older. It is true that the top players are getting older, and one can certainly point to Stan in particular as an exception to my claim. As many others have noted, though, there is a lot less mileage on stan’s body than on the big 3; he has just played many fewer matches. So: maybe I’m wrong, and Nadal’s lower standard over the last 3 years is to be chalked up entirely to injury and a crisis of self-doubt, whatever. But I think a far more plausible explanation is simply that he’s getting older.
#SmithsEchoChamber
How can it be age, when in 2016 Rafa had a mini revival on clay before injury took him down again? I mean his 2016 performance on clay was definitely better than his 2015 or even 2014 before injury stopped him at the FO forcing him to withdraw.
Ok, so he was better for awhile last year than he was in 2015, maybe than he was in 2014. I don’t deny that injury plays a role, but again, advancing age is not irrelevant to that. I just don’t see him returning to that 2013 level again. Let’s see what happens.
He may not need to get back to his 2013 level; but his 2014 level even with back issue was already good enough; having reached finals in 7 out of 10 events played, winning four, and was the race leader up to FO that year. He just has to stay fit and healthy, without injury getting back to that level plus 2016 clay level should serve him well.
It’s the same with the rest, Djoko is not going to get back to his 2015 level, or Fed to his 2006 level; still they’re good enough to win and beat other players.
In that case, Joe Smith, the decline of Djoko and Murray is now in progress.
It’s more likely than not. They’ve both played a lot of tennis, having been near the top of the rankings for a decade. It particularly wouldn’t surprise me if we never see Novak at his 2015-16 best again. The main point is simply that this is the long-established trend for top male -not necessarily female- tennis players. The best known stat is the rarity of winning a slam after 30. The list of players who have won more than one since 1980 is extremely small (Connors, Agassi, Federer, Wawrinka) and no one has won more than 2. Certainly the top players are getting older, and maybe this stat will start changing as well. For the moment, however, it seems a good bet that none of the big four are likely to win too many more slams.
Not just the top players getting old.
The average age of the tour overall is getting old.
And it makes me wonder.
Average age of ATP/WTA bottomed out at 24/22 in the mid-80s and has been OTR ever since.
Average age of ATP Top 100 and Top 10 is 29 today.
https://cleaningthelines.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/42-atp-wta-age-comparison-post.png?w=600&h=411
http://www.changeovertennis.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Andrew-Graph-4.png
Getting this thread back on track of Miami… How you you all think Nishikori will do here? I totally forgot that he beat Kyrgios to make the final last year. Kei is frustrating- we all know he is capable of beating all the top players, but you can never count on him to play at high level for more than a few matches. It’s especially frustrating for me because Kei is often my favorite player to watch. When’s he’s on, his super aggressive baselining is awesome to watch.
I have him falling in semis to Nadal.
I forgot that he beat Kygrios last year too. Kei is my third pick to make the final, behind Dimitrov and Sock. If Raonic is playing at a much higher level than I expect (after injury and lay-off), he could sneak in there too. It is odd that for someone as under-sized from a power point of view, Kei isn’t the most consistent player. You’d think that is what he would bring to the table, but not usually. You’re right though, that when he’s on he’s a lot of fun to watch. I sometimes wonder if he’d benefit from some Novak-like diet, conditioning, hyperbolic chamber stuff. In terms of toughness he kind if reminds me of pre-2011 Djokovic.
Dimi out already in his first match, one strike off your list.
LOL.
it’s his Christmas list.
Sock having all sorts of problems with Nishioka, was down 4-2 in first set before Nishioka retired with knee injury; lucky escape for Sock, if not he might follow Dimi out of Miami.
Kei will at least reach the SF; he’s the finalist here last year, losing to Djoko.
Yes, maybe you’re right. I haven’t seen any of the matches yet except for Tiafoe in the 1st round. Dimitrov must have had a pretty bad day, compared to the level he had in Melbourne. Looks like Sock was lucky too for the opponent to retire when he had a lead.
Kei is capable of beating all the top players only when they are not playing at their best. His game doesn’t have enough punch or a single asset as in a big serve, great fh or bh but he can mix it up and make his opponent feel uncomfortable when they are playing below par.
It was hard to gauge Rafa’s level yesterday because he was not only playing against Sela but also against the wind. Hope the weather improves and Rafa can play without any inhibitions.
whoa….Kevin’s post @ MARCH 25, 2017 AT 12:06 AM ??
The same here about Kei Nishikori!
Last year Hawkie was preaching to me about how well “Nishi at night” would do in Miami. HE was mostly right. Kei made the final but was depleted and defeated.
Picked Kei to the SF this year where he is defeated by Rafa ….
And I have Goffin in the top SF getting knocked out by Delpo ??
Wow. Good memory rc.
I’d forgotten that.
If you don’t think I’m reading or listening to you…think again 😀 ?
Yes, it’s time to give some love to Kei. He takes the ball so early with his groundstrokes. He has also improved his serve in the last year or two. He has an aggressive mindset when he’s on his game. He’s become mentally tough and a really strong competitor.
I think his main problem is just staying healthy and free of injury.
Welp Dimitrov is out. I really hope he isn’t drifting back into his pre resurgence mode. He may just be tired from all the efforts to start the year with winning Brisbane and Sofia and making Melbourne semis. Now a few poor results as of late by losing this one and losing four match points to J Sizzle in IW where he probably could’ve made the semis and would’ve at least made the QF has he beaten Sock. Also the Rotterdam loss to Goffin but that was still solid QF run. Grigor still 17-4 this season. Just not as impressive of a March masters campaign he would’ve liked. Also there goes Ricky’s pick for the title LOL
I see Rick’y predicted winner has already bitten the dust. 😉 😉 😉
he would have won the title if I hadn’t picked him
That’s why I picked #GOAT2.0.
#AntiJinxings
Well done, Ricky; I can see that there is method behind your madness. 😉
Ha ha, in his first match too!
We can roughly gauge form of players – Dimi wasn’t playing that well at IW, coming back from short break after Rotterdam. The conditions at Miami was windy and rainy, very hard to control the ball, no wonder Dimi over hit some of his shots.
Some are too harsh with Rafa; he at least adjusted to the windy conditions without dropping a set. I hope Rafa improves match by match to reach SF or final, winning it would be great!
“Some are too harsh with Rafa; he at least adjusted to the windy conditions without dropping a set. I hope Rafa improves match by match to reach SF or final, winning it would be great!”
Luckystar….VERY AGREE!!
Goffin down 4-0 vs a qualifier King? Where’s this King from?
He’s from Barbados and has his cheering section there – this is the first time I’ve seen him playing. He’s no match for Goffin. He does appear potentially dangerous: about Rafa’s size, powerful, 24 years old. Likes the drop shot, his serve and forehand, Ranked 120. Not in the same class as David Goffin, though.
Goffin caught up and passed him; took the 1st set 7-5.
King ran out of steam, that’s the problem with these modern day players (i.e. the younger gen players) – serve and hit hard and run along the baseline, not much else!
Tiafoe another one, just runs along the baseline, doesn’t know how to come forward. It’s his hard hitting and big serves that keep him alive vs Fed, not going to last with all the running. It’s a pity, such big servers should come forward after their big serves to take away the returner’s time and attack right away.
Makes me appreciate young Rafa and young Murray more; also Kygrios the ‘bad’ boy, for the willingness to come forward once sensing the right time to do so.
Didn’t see Tiafoe-Fed, but what you say seems right to me based on watching his 1st round match. Absolutely: a lot of these players would benefit from being willing to come in more. Where they trail the top guys is usually in consistency, and if they’re made to hit one more hard shot from the baseline, it eventually tells and they miss. Being able to come in and end the point quickly after that first big hit can make a huge difference; often the volley wouldn’t be that hard because they’ve got such a positional advantage in the point.
Incidentally, I think Rafa is probably the best (of those players that rarely come to net) at knowing/sensing when to come in, and he’s got a terrific volley. I think his best strategy at this point is to increase his net approaches. He’s got a good DTLBH, and that’s the shot I would look to come in on most (against righty BH).
Skull Island
King is from Barbados.
Fed’s opponents making the same mistake, they keep hitting CC to Fed’s BH; should hit more to Fed’s FH, make him run from side to side. Tiafoe has a few successes hitting winners to Fed’s FH.
2nd round matches have changed nothing for me… I still do not expect Federer to win Miami. I also won’t be at all surprised if he does win it… I also still expect Rafa to win Miami. I also won’t be at all surprised if he does not win it…
#KevinLogic
#”Humb1e”
Federer is the greatest player of all time. Lucky for Rafa, he’s ALSO the greatest of all time.
#PseudoMcEnroe
You got it, Hawks! 🙂
Aaaand Thiem is out!
Del app seems to be playing pretty well. Assuming he gets through Haase no problem, then I think we could have us a really good Fed/Del Po match! I think it could go either way. If Del app were to pull off the upset, that would mean that he will have the all the Big 4 plus Stan in just the last 9 months… Incredible if you consider where he was at the end of 2015! When he first came back from this most recent wrist surgery, I remember thinking that I just didn’t see him ever playing at a decent level ever again… Boy, was I wrong! 🙂
*Will have BEAT all the Big 4 plus Stan that is.
[polldaddy poll=9706561]
Too bad, Thiem went out early. I expect him to make the SF. He smashed a racket or two.
[polldaddy poll=9706561]
I saw his meltdown! Yes, he did some damage to some rackets!