John Isner is one win away from an improbable title defense of his improbable 2018 Miami Open title.
But he may not be quite as close as “one win” sounds given that the man he repeatedly hails as the greatest of all time stands in his way on Sunday afternoon.
It will be Isner vs. Roger Federer in the championship match, with Federer leading the head-to-head series 5-2. The 6’10” American won their most recent meeting, but surprisingly the two veterans have not faced each other since 2015 (Federer prevailed at the U.S. Open before Isner won 7-6(3), 3-6, 7-6(5) at the Paris Masters). This is not their first final showdown during the March hard-court swing, as Federer triumphed 7-6(7), 6-3 to capture the 2012 Indian Wells title.
Both players have been in outstanding form this fortnight. Well, in Federer’s case he has been stellar throughout the entire first three months of 2019. The 37-year-old Swiss is 17-2 this season with a title in Dubai, a runner-up finish in Indian Wells, and Miami victories over Radu Albot, Filip Krajinovic, Daniil Medvedev, Kevin Anderson, and Denis Shapovalov.
Federer has not dropped a set since losing his first one against Albot, while Isner has been perfect the entire way. Of course, it has not been easy for the world No. 9. Whereas Federer has not played a single tiebreaker so far, Isner is an unbelievable 9-0 in ‘breakers out of 10 total sets played. The seventh seed has scraped past Lorenzo Sonego, Albert Ramos-Vinolas (one set was 7-5), Kyle Edmund, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Felix Auger-Aliassime.
“It’s a tricky one,” Federer said of returning Isner’s serve. “Sometimes you go with momentum. Sometimes you go with feel. Sometimes you guess maybe a little bit and sometimes you see it. It’s a combination of all sort of things…. No. 1, you want to connect. Secondly, you want to get in a neutral position–which is very difficult, because you know he’s looking for his forehand or he looks to come in or try to take charge of the point. It’s tough. Then you just hope that sort of the stars align; that you pick the right side, that he picks the wrong side, that maybe he misses a serve, that you can put him in uncomfortable situations time and time again, and at the end somehow you find a way.
“He’s definitely got one of the serves you can basically not read.”
“That would be awesome for me,” Isner said after winning the first semifinal when asked about possibly matching up with Federer. “Any time you play against him would be, in a big stage, a tournament like this, would be amazing. I played him in the finals of Indian Wells seven years ago; he beat me there. It would be really cool to play against him. Certainly playing Roger would be a very big moment.”
In six career encounters on surfaces other than clay, Isner has not broken Federer a single time. That doesn’t bode well for the 33-year-old, who may have an upper hand if tiebreakers are the story but also may have a tough time getting there. He was broken twice by Auger-Aliassime, and Federer has been returning serve extremely well (the 20-time major champion broke Anderson a whopping five times, for example).
Expect a competitive contest, with a slight edge going to Federer–who will be eager to avoid back-to-back final losses.
Pick: Federer in 3
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WYG?
We may not see a tiebreaker and I think Fed will break at least once each set. Fed in 2.
Isners serve is hard to break, however Roger is a better mover and returner, Roger in two tight sets ….
RF to win 6-3, 6-3
RF to win 6-3, 6-3
Young guns may have dominated Miami so far, but its not a changing of the guard just yet.
Fed in two, 76 64
Fed in 2. Isner should’ve lost to Aug and if Shapo couldn’t win a set neither will Isner.
Fed in 2.
Two of my favorite players….both good guys, but Fed is Fed…in 2.
Absurd display of tennis for Fed to win his 101st title in two. Three finals, two titles, in back to back to back tournaments, at age 37. It’s mind-boggling.
Kudos to Isner for more good sportsmanship, gutting it out instead of retiring.
If Fed can play this kind of tennis in a month, you have to like his chances in Madrid.
Did anyone pick Fed to win this tournament? I didn’t. More than one commentator I read picked him to lose early. The final against Isner was a masterclass. Fed won 32 of 35 points on serve, which was the one aspect of his game that was much better than previous matches in this tourney. When he combines a high serve pct. with the kind of all-round play he has displayed in Miami, he is a tennis monster.
Roger now leads the race to London. He has (I think) a decent chance to finish YE #1 if he can stay healthy. Playing at least part of the clay season should give him a big boost.
Yes, and a 37 yr old not playing very well this year produces a masterclass from nowhere to win his 101st title . Natural talent anyone?
Well, maybe not from nowhere; he had been playing exceptionally well this tournament since his second match. But today there are some articles saying Fed has been playing without pain-killers for a few months, and that he had an injured hand last year from June-October. If so, and if he’s now regained his 2017 form, the rest of this year could be very interesting.
You got to look at the competition! He faced two top ten players no doubt, but one who’s just back from injury and so got bageled, another one who almost lost to an 18 year old in the SF!
He’s playing better in 2017, as he edged out a tight match vs Berdych, Kyrgios and won comfortably against Rafa in the final.
Didn’t pick him, but was hoping silently he would win it. What a display! He played so well. Reminded me of 2017 season. That match against Albot was the key. I am so happy he won it.
Yes, Eugene, I’ll bet Roger’s team made him watch that Albot match a few times to be sure he understood how not to play in subsequent matches!
I thought Albot played that match amazingly well, tbh, but Fed was very poor in his shot selection.
Well yes, he has been playing decent but not his best this year until Miami.Commentator said he was baqck to the level of three or four years ago. He was even better than that in 2017, IMO.
Yes, you may be right. The last few matches is certainly the best I’ve seen him play since 2017, and he played best in the final imo, due to his serving. This level reminded me of his 2015 Wimby (before the final) and Shanghai level. It’s amazing to think that we could see that again, but maybe we shouldn’t be amazed anymore.
Btw, I was reading that Fed’s trainer Pierre Paganini is apparently not allowed to write a book on Fed’s fitness regime before Fed retires. Roger obviously thinks he has some advantage that he doesn’t want others getting a hold of! I’m sure Pierre is being paid handsomely for his silence, especially since he’s been working with Fed since Fed was 14.
The clay season will be interesting , he’s been missed. Especially Madrid which suits him.
Just woke up & still didn’t watch Rog’s match or read any article about it…,but i believe u joe when u said he’s been playing exceptionally well…hehe…
God!…101 titles????He’s crazy!…hehe…and JUST AMAZING!!….So,MUCH CONGRATS to Super Fed & his awesome fans here joe,Eugene,Big Al & others…Almost 40 & still play like he’s 20??Ohoho!!AWESOME!!
Thanks, Mira. Former WTA player Danielle Hantuchova said today that she thinks Fed can play into his 40s if he stays healthy and still enjoys it. Maybe not so far fetched!
If Connors can play till he’s 40, I dont see why Fed can’t. But, he has to be wary of the youngsters who are getting better and better.
I think Rafa and Djoko will be around too, not retiring anytime soon.
Possible, though 40 is still a long ways away for Fed, and a tennis eternity for Rafa and Novak. Have to enjoy watching them while we can. Andy Murray is a cautionary tale for anyone who thinks tennis after 30 is a given even in this day and age.
Hehe….You’re welcome joe!…
I would love to see Fed play till his 40’s…and break more records…why not??Let’s hope he will be healthy for that…
And of coz,for me..hope Rafa will hang around as long as he can too…Life will not be the same without them…
Not too far away for Fed, just two years away. I doubt Rafa will play till forty, he’ll get married and settles down, my guess is he may play till he’s 35 or 36, provided his body and mind allow it.
I think Djoko may be the one who can play right into his 40s, provided he’s still able to win big titles. Djoko is careful with his scheduling and he’s just that good when he turns aggressive, so I think he can last longer than Rafa if he only plays the important events and plays more aggressive tennis (which he’s capable of doing).
I think Murray is eager to get back on tour, and with his skills and tennis brain, he’ll play smart and not grinding tennis, perhaps back to the way he played when he was just an upstart. I prefer that Murray tbh. He may not win big titles again, but he loves the competition. I’ll always remember how well he played against Stan at the FO in 2017, using all his guile and varieties to counter Stan’s power.
This is Federer’s last year. That’s the obvious reason he’s decided to play on clay this year.
Yeah, I do miss those good times when all four were fit and healthy and playing great tennis at the same time – I think it all started from second half of 2008 right up to 2014, of course with some injuries and absences in between.
Fed is great this Miami no doubt, playing better and better through the draw but imo, he’s not close to his 2017 level. He has a relatively easy draw here, playing Krajinovic, and Shapo who’s still honing his skills and was obviously overcame by nerve and awe see Fed across the net.
Anderson was just back from some injury issues and imo wasn’t playing at his usual level, and Isner was already showing some weaknesses in his game that FAA just couldn’t took advantage of again because of his own nerve.
Fed played great against Kyrgios in 2017 and that match was voted the best BO3 match that year if I’m not wrong. Fed also edged out Berdych having faced a MP. When it came to tense situations like that, Fed always rose above his lesser opponents. Its still Djoko who made Fed tense in a match, Rafa not so much these days.
I think Fed’s level here is right what it was in 2017, if not better. He may have played slightly tougher opposition that year, but the scores were much closer. Fed just beat 5 quality opponents in a row here without dropping a set or even being pushed to a TB. (Only Kraijinovic once managed to get 5 games in a set). He has been totally dominant. You can’t chalk it all up to weak opposition.
Nah, they’re no where near what Kyrgios, Berdych and Rafa were in 2017. Shapo was the most disappointing, but had to give him some slack as he had to fight hard, going the distance to beat Tsitisipas and Tiafoe back to back so there would be let down after two great matches; furthermore he was in awe of Fed.
I would even say that had Djoko played well enough to reach the final, he would have a good chance of beating Fed. None of Fed’s opponents were great returners of serves, so Fed practically had no pressure on his own service games. Fed otoh, returned serves better than any of his opponents.
You can’t compare Krajinovic, Medvedev, Anderson, Shapo and Isner to Delpo, Agut, Berdych, Kyrgios and Rafa!
Sure I can; I just did! In fact, Rafa was probably no better in the 2017 Miami final than any of the six guys Roger just beat. Fed didn’t play as well in that match as he did today against Isner, yet he still won easily against Nadal that day 6-3, 6-4.
As I admitted, both Berdych and Kyrgios played great matches against Fed in 2017, and either of them could and perhaps should have won. But it doesn’t follow that Fed played better in those matches than he has in the last five.
No, you got to look at his opppnents; Fed’s opponents this year made him looked better than he really was, simple as that. If we put in a Kyrgios of 2017 to replace say Shapo, I’m sure he would do better against Fed than Shapo did. If we put in a Berdych of 2017 in place of Anderson, I’m sure he would do better than Anderson did against Fed. I’m not sure Isner was doing better than Rafa in 2017, esp when he could hardly move in the second set. Delpo compared to Medvedev, Agut compared to Krajinovic?
I would say, Fed’s first serve % this year wasn’t as good as in 2017, if he was serving like this in 2017, Kyrgios or Berdych would’ve beaten him then. Rafa wasn’t playing well but his %s weren’t any worse than Isner’s.
Rafa won a higher % of points against Fed than four of Fed’s 2019 opponents, including Isner; I wonder why you said he’s doing worse than all six of Fed’s 2019 opponents!
Well, I just was going on the scoreline. I didn’t think the 2017 final was terribly high-quality (esp. for Fed and Nadal).
Agree about Fed’s serving -until the final against Isner, where he was great. But his baseline play has been terrific since R3, and he was winning easily even with a fairly low 1st serve pct.
I didn’t say the 2017final was of high quality, but neither was the 2019 final. I mean, Isner could do better than that I feel. Fed winning his serves easily was (as I’d explained earlier) due to the poor quality of ROS of his opponents.
Well, yes Isner didn’t play great. But anyone would have had trouble breaking Fed today (as has been the case for the whole tourney), but especially today with a high pct. of 1st serves.
Sometimes one player can play great even if the match isn’t of high quality overall. I think that was the case today.
Isner has trouble breaking ANYONE, even when 100% healthy. Similarly anyone has trouble breaking Fed when his serve is on.
FA2 broke Isner twice but then broke himself back both times.
Congrats to Roger. Now 25-8 (75.8%) in ATP Masters/WTF finals vs Non Big 4 players. He’s 9-17 (35.6%) in such events vs Big 4.
Similarly, he’s a whopping 16-1 (94.1%) in slam finals when he’s not facing Rafole. He’s 4-9 (30.7%) in slam finals vs Rafole.
But there’s no denying that he’s physically outlasted them all. Age hasn’t had much effect on his success.
Rafole OTOH definitely have, but they can’t stay at their respective peak the way Federer has. How he stay so…. “youthful” when many of his fans talked about age effects on muscle mass, speed, recovery, reflexes, yada, yada yada.
Must be the fountain of youth he be “drinking” from.
Sampras looking pretty old was just 36 when he played Federer in exho matches in 2007.
(By comparison, Fed currently leads the Race to London at almost 38 years old.)
Rafa and Djoko don’t look old and are still the TOP two winning the last four slams played, at age 33, 32 respectively. Fed at age 32 (in 2013) was ranked at no.6, and then no.2 in 2014 but he didn’t win any slam.
Rafa and Djoko don’t look like they’re not going to win anymore after being the runner up and winner at the recent slam. As great as Fed is, he went 4.5 years without winning a slam.
Rafa and Djoko still have the game and desire to win, will they still be playing at age 37-38? Who knows, but need they play till then if they can win at the slams and masters to set their own records within these few years? Fed may play till he’s 40 if he wants, that doesn’t mean he’s going to sweep up more slams or masters.
Fed does look old, his game may look intact but he can’t play that way consistently tournament after tournament, esp at the slams, when he failed to go beyond the QF in his last three slams played.
Nadal and Djoko arent exactly perfect either, you don’t mention their slumps over the past few years. But he does have a few stats to back up his GOAT status.
Slumps? For Rafa it’s two years (2015/2016); for Djoko, it’s shorter – from 2017 to mid 2018.
Fed’s QF streak? After his long one ended at Wimbledon 2013, he started to lose earlier than the QF more often (R4 USO 2013, R4 FO2014, R3 AO2015, skipped some FOs & one USO, R4 USO2018, R4 AO2019). If we ignore those FOs (and one USO) that he skipped, his latest QF streak should be from FO2015 to Wimbledon 2018, ie 10, not bad for an old man!
Whats the stats on Fed reaching QFs of Slams? The streak was interrupted, but its going again…not bad for 37.
Not sure what you mean, Al, unless it’s Fed’s 2 slam streak of failing to make the QFs (4R exit last two slams).
If he can play at this level in three months time, I like his chances at Wimby.
Yes, but it’s a long way away and he’s playing on clay before that.
We’ll not worry about the QF streak if he could win Wimby