Marseille, Rio de Janeiro, and Delray Beach previews and predictions

February on the ATP Tour is halfway home; two weeks and six tournaments down, two more weeks and six more tournaments to go. The Golden Swing takes center stage with a 500-point event in Rio de Janeiro, where Dominic Thiem is in action for the first time since finishing runner-up at the Australian Open. In Europe, another strong field will be on display at the Open 13—featuring Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tstisipas, David Goffin, Denis Shapovalov and Rotterdam runner-up Felix Auger-Aliassime. Nick Kyrgios headlines the Delray Beach Open.

Open 13

Where: Marseille, France
Surface: Indoor hard
Points: 250
Prize money: 691,880 Euros

Top seed: Daniil Medvedev
Defending champion: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Draw analysis: Gael Monfils is taking a break this week from the European swing; everyone else has a chance! The Montpellier and Rotterdam title winner is not part of the festivities in Marseille, where Medvedev and Tsitsipas are the top two seeds and obvious favorites. Medvedev’s draw is more difficult, as the fifth-ranked Russian will likely kick off his campaign with Jannik Sinner before possibly meeting Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals and Auger-Aliassime in the semis. Goffin is another potential semifinal opponent for Medvedev.

That’s not to say the bottom of the bracket is weak. Tsitsipas’ section also includes Hubert Hurkacz and an in-form Vasek Pospisil. But the most intriguing quarter is where Shapovalov owns a first-round bye. He is joined by Alexander Bublik, Marton Fucsovics, Benoit Paire, and Marin Cilic. Bublik and Fucsovics are going head-to-head in an intriguing first-round showdown.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Gregoire Barrere over (6) Benoit Paire. Paire is ranked 71 spots higher than his fellow Frenchman and leads the head-to-head series 2-0, which is why this would be a considerable upset. But based on current form, there is a good chance it happens. Since starting the season 7-2, Paire has lost three matches in a row—most recently to Aljaz Bedene in Rotterdam in easy straight sets. Barrere advanced to the Montpellier quarters and then successfully qualified in Rotterdam.

Hot: Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz, Vasek Pospisil, Mikael Ymer, Filip Krajinovic, Marton Fucsovics, Gregoire Barrere, Jannik Sinner

Cold: Denis Shapovalov, Benoit Paire, Richard Gasquet

Semifinal predictions: Daniil Medvedev over David Goffin and Stefanos Tsitsipas over Marton Fucsovics

Final: Tsitsipas over Medvedev

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Rio Open

Where: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Surface: Clay
Points: 500
Prize money: $1,759,905

Top seed: Dominic Thiem
2019 champion: Laslo Djere (not playing)

Draw analysis: Thiem did all of the Golden Swing participants a favor by skipping events in Cordoba and Buenos Aires (he was never signed up for Cordoba and withdrew from Buenos Aires). The latter development paved the way for a surprising BA final between Casper Ruud and Pedro Sousa. Ruud (the champ) and Sousa (runner-up) could face each other again as early as round two in Rio, where the winner would likely run into Thiem in the quarterfinals. Guido Pella, Fernando Verdasco, and Pablo Cuevas are possible semifinal foes for the top-seeded Austrian.

This is mostly a favorable draw for Thiem, as the bottom half is loaded. That’s where Cordoba champion Cristian Garin, Dusan Lajovic, Juan Ignacio Londero, Borna Coric, and former French Open semifinalist Marco Cecchinato all reside. Intriguing first-round contests pit Lajovic against Cecchinato and Coric against Londero in addition to an all-Spanish matchup featuring veteran Albert Ramos-Vinolas and youngster Carlos Alcaraz.  

First-round upset alert: Juan Ignacio Londero over (5) Borna Coric. This would only be an upset according to ranking and seed. Coric is a disappointing 1-4 this season after losing his Buenos Aires opener to Thiago Monteiro. Although the Croat is decent on clay, Londero is a borderline clay-court specialist. The Argentine reached the quarterfinals in Cordoba and the semis in Buenos Aires.

Hot: Dominic Thiem, Cristian Garin, Casper Ruud, Pedro Sousa

Cold: Borna Coric, Jaume Munar, Hugo Dellien, Leonardo Mayer

Quarterfinal predictions: Dominic Thiem over Casper Ruud, Pablo Cuevas over Fernando Verdasco, Cristian Garin over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Juan Ignacio Londero over Dusan Lajovic

Semifinals: Thiem over Cuevas and Garin over Londero

Final: Thiem over Garin

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Delray Beach Open

Where: Delray Beach, Florida
Surface: Hard
Points: 250
Prize money: $602,935

Top seed: Nick Kyrgios
Defending champion: Radu Albot

Draw analysis: Which Kyrgios will show up this week? If he treats this week as an important warmup event to get his game ready for an upcoming title defense in Acapulco, the Aussie is a clear favorite to lift the trophy. If he messes around with good friend Tommy Paul on the other side of the net in round one, Kyrgios could be out right away. You just never know with him. He better be motivated right from the start, because his quarter of the bracket is by far the toughest. It is also includes New York finalist Kyle Edmund, Ugo Humbert, Jordan Thompson, Miomir Kecmanovic, Tennys Sandgren, and Frances Tiafoe. Lurking elsewhere in the top half are Taylor Fritz, John Millman, and Pune champion Jiri Vesely.

The other side is far weaker, although second-seeded Milos Raonic could have his hands full with Andreas Seppi right off the bat. It would not be a surprise to see the winner of that match go all the way to the final. Reilly Opelka, who also has an extremely favorable draw in Delray Beach, could be a roadblock for either Raonic or Seppi in the semifinals.

First-round upset alert: Soonwoo Kwon over (7) Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino is one of those guys who will slice and dice you to death if you aren’t playing well, but if you play well you’re probably going to win. It’s safe to say Kwon is playing well these days. In fact, the 22-year-old South Korean is playing the best tennis of his career. He has reached back-to-back quarterfinals in Pune and New York. Mannarino is just 1-4 so far this year.

Hot: Ugo Humbert, John Millman, Kyle Edmund, Andreas Seppi, Jiri Vesely, Soonwoo Kwon, Jason Jung, Tommy Paul

Cold: Adrian Mannarino, Radu Albot, Damir Dzumhur, Ryan Harrison, Jack Sock

Semifinal predictions: Taylor Fritz over Ugo Humbert over Milos Raonic over Soonwoo Kwon

Final: Fritz over Raonic

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