Madrid SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Nishikori vs. Murray

KeiRafael Nadal will try to avenge an Australian Open loss when he goes up against Tomas Berdych on Saturday in Madrid. Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori are also aiming for a place in the title match.

(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Berdych will be squaring off for the 23rd time in their careers when they battle for a spot in Mutua Madrid Open final on Saturday. Berdych ended a 17-match losing streak against Nadal by pulling off a 6-2, 6-0, 7-6(5) at the Australian Open earlier this year. But it is the Spaniard, of course, who is still dominating the head-to-head series 18-4. Nadal is a perfect 6-0 and has won 13 consecutive sets at Berdych’s expense on clay.

Both men coasted through their first two matches of the week, with Nadal disposing of Steve Johnson and Simone Bolelli while Berdych beat Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Czech endured a much tougher day at the office on Friday, saving  one match point before outlasting John Isner 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-6(1) in two hours and nine minutes. Nadal, on the other hand, defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 6-4. The relatively fast conditions will help Berdych make this one more competitive than their previous clay-court encounters, but Nadal should once again take care of business playing at home on his favorite surface.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(4) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Andy Murray

Nishikori is two wins away from lifting the Madrid winner’s trophy, which just barely eluded him in 2014 when he was forced to retire in the final against Nadal. The world No. 5 needed three sets to win his opener against David Goffin before making more routine work of Roberto Bautista Agut and David Ferrer. Nishikori is now 29-5 on the season with two titles and one runner-up showing.

Up next for the Japanese star is a fifth career meeting with Murray. Nishikori had been winless in the head-to-head series before scoring a 6-4, 6-4 victory at the World Tour Finals last fall. The two competitors have never squared off on clay, which is Murray’s worst surface–although you would not know it from this week. The second-seeded Scot has taken out Philipp Kohlschreiber, Marcel Granollers, and Milos Raonic–dropping only one set to Kohlschreiber in the process. At some point all of this recent tennis (Murray won the Munich title on Monday) has to catch up with the world No. 3, and that is likely to happen against an opponent as red-hot as Nishikori.

Pick: Nishikori in 2

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93 Comments on Madrid SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Nishikori vs. Murray

  1. Rafa to resume normal service over Berdych. Been a while seeing Rafa play on Sundays. Vamos!

    Kei is just playing other worldly tennis right now. I have him beating Muzza but I hope Muzza keeps him out there fore long and drains him! Phew, shows you where my confidence for my man is at!

  2. I thought Muzza struggled to put away an injured Raonic, doesn’t bode well for his RG prospects. Why was Raonic playing injured, especially since he had already taken the decision to withdraw from Rome? Strange……….

    • Imagine he fancied his chances against Andy and hoped to pick up a few points in the YTD ranking. Getting to the O2 would be one of his goals this year.

  3. Andy is having his best run ever on clay but agree with Ricky the past two weeks will catch up with him today.
    Kei for the win in 3 sets.

  4. Attendance figures at Madrid this year are appalling. Even the marquee matches are conspicuous for the number of empty seats.

  5. Nishikori’s form worries, much more than Djokovic does in a match against Rafa. I hope Rafa has made adjustments for a possible Madrid finals meeting.

    The thing I have noticed about Nishikori is his calm. The few times I have seen him rattled he is abysmal, spraying errors all over the place. The key therefore is finding Kei’s weak spot and putting sustained pressure…………..

    For such a small stature, he has an incredibly effective serve………

  6. I expect Rafa to win in two…by saying this I almost immediately experience sensation of discomfort in my stomach…atm the word “certainty” and Rafa do not get along …please Rafa make us proud today…

    I think Doctor Nadal is gaining momentum these days…I trust Rafa to be focused and up to the task…

    Vamos DR Nadal!

  7. BTW Nishi in 3 is my pick…Nishi is really playing well these days but Andy also looks strong enough to grab a set from the Japanese sensation…

  8. I agree about Murray and Nishis going three sets. I actually think it’s a toss up. But it should be a good one.

    No way am I looking ahead to the final yet! Rafa has to get this win first.

  9. Don’t tell me Berdy’s 2nd serve is that good. He has made only 48% of 1st serves so far and they are still on serve? Rafa needs to attack those 2nd serves better, that has always been a part of Rafa’s game I have not been happy about.

  10. GUTTED that rafa missed a second serve RETURN on brk pnt at 5-5. He did such a splendid job of creating a break point after being down 15-40 in the game. Played an incredible forehand up the line but then missed a return :/ berdy was all over him in the next two points.

    Now push this to a tie break, rafa. and be VIGILANT. DON’T lose this set

  11. This is so frustrating! Second serve and Rafa overhits the return. Those are the break chances that must be converted!

    This is nervous time!

  12. His ROS on the big points is the canary in a coal mine and continues to be his undoing.

    Hope it doesn’t cost him the set.

    He cannot win RG until he fixes this.

  13. Smart serve! 4-2 rafa. He is thinking clearly out there and I like his attitude. This will be a very positive set if he wins it. Just three more points rafa.

  14. I think thats the best I have seen him play this year. His performance at the end of the set was great. That Forehand DTL…what a treat to sore eyes.

  15. wow,..this set has given me satisfaction! Rafa raised his level and finished the set playing at a great level. Serve and forehand were so potent.

    Now rafa, attack berdy’s second serves more and just take your game to another gear. I want the backhand to join the party as well 😉

    let’s just not get carried away. berdy is playing solid tennis and he has been in great form this year. Rafa has to avoid dips in intensity and keep up this level.

  16. Fantastic serving. So much variation! berdych has no clue which way rafa’s gona serve! body serves have been dead accurate too

  17. WOW. SPEECHLESS (for a different reason this time,thankfully).

    Rafa’s forehand was UNPLAYABLE. He was hitting winners at will! his forehand produced 15 winners and only 2 UE. this is incredible, really incredible. A stern reminder to all those who thought rafa is on a decline. TAKE THAT.

    And how sweet was that running backhand down the line winner during a baseline exchange , that left berdych frozen in the 4-1 game.

    And our rafa is SOOO DELIGHTED. The hard work is finally paying off. This was a masterclass. Berdych was smiling out there in disbelief when rafa was smacking forehand winners! BEST performance of the year for rafa.

    Now bring on Nishikori! we are ready!

  18. This is being greedy, I know, but it would have been nice if Rafa had raised the percentage of breakpoints converted. My goodness though that was a treat for sore eyes after his shaky start to the clay court swing. Everything is back in good working order.

    • To be fair, Berdych put in several aces and great first shots. Nadal only missed two or three easy returns with his backhands. Hopefully he will be more confident with the backhand

  19. Now I can finally celebrate! I am SO proud of Rafa! He’s back! Our Rafa is BAAACCK!!!

    That forehand was on fire. Painting the lines! Brilliant! Forehands down the line, forehands inside out! It was all working! Berdy had no answers in the second set! Even that elusive backhand managed to reappear! Backhand dtl for a winner, backhand cc! That’s Rafa’s confidence shot!

    This is easily the best match of the year for Rafa! So great to see him feeling it out there. When they showed closeups of him. you could see it in his eyes. That intense look. The determination, the focus.

    But there is one more match. If Rafa can play like this then he will win this title. This is what he needs. To defend this title. It will make all the difference in the world.

    Rafa, you are a still a champion! 🙂

    • True!! 😀 If rafa can replicate this form tomorrow and win the title, shock waves will be sent through the tennis world!

  20. so who was complaining about winners to UE errors ratio? rafa heard us!

    24 winners to 11 UE on clay is as good as it gets! correction, rafa had 16 winners to only 2 UE on his forehand! the king!

    86% of first serve points won and 72% of second serve points won (WOAH). and bedych won 25 baseline points as compared to 53 by rafa. LOL

  21. I think Berdych played great I was thinking it would be a toss up for the winner but Rafa turned it up in the 2nd set and was very impressive.

    • Next to Novak, Berdy has been the most consistent player on tour so far and for Rafa to feed him a bakery product is just awesome. Rafa is timing his charge to RG perfectly.

      I want to see him believe more, strike fear in his opponents hearts whilst they are still in the locker-room like before. You could tell Berdy believed in the 1st set and Rafa was nervous. 2nd set, Rafa was beginning to believe……….

  22. Berdy played very well, can’t take anything away from him…But Rafa was superb…This performance was such a treat for our eyes…now, Rafa just needs to replicate this super play and the trophy will be in his teeth… 🙂

    Vamos DR Nadal!

  23. http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/tennis/32675006

    Madrid Open: Rafael Nadal powers past Tomas Berdych into final
    Defending champion Rafael Nadal looked near his best in his Madrid Open semi-final against Tomas Berdych, earning his place in the final with ease.

    The Spaniard delivered a masterclass of clay-court tennis to prevail 7-6 (7-3) 6-1 against the Czech sixth seed.

    The two men were evenly matched in the first set, before Nadal hit a string of forehand winners in the tie-break.

    Nadal, 28, quickly opened a lead in the second and will face either Andy Murray or Kei Nishikori in Sunday’s final.

    The first semi-final pitched the undisputed master of the clay court against one of this season’s most consistent players.

    Nadal boasts a record 46 career clay-court titles, while Berdych has not lost to anyone outside the top 10 in 2015 and beat Nadal in the Australian Open earlier this year.

    The quality of tennis did not disappoint. Both players eased through their early service games, with Berdych appearing composed and moving well against the home-crowd favourite.

    Despite a poor first-serve percentage, the Czech did not drop a point on serve until double-faulting in the fifth game.

    Even though he missed an easy smash to gift Nadal a first break point of the match in game seven, he served his way out of trouble with three unreturnable deliveries.

    However, in the tie-break, the Spaniard cranked up the speed and precision of his forehand, consistently hitting the edges of the court to close out the set.

    Berdych was unable to make an impression on the Nadal serve and became frustrated by distractions in the crowd. Errors crept into his game and Nadal was able to break twice before serving out the second set.

    After his struggles with injury in recent years, the Spaniard appears to be hitting peak form before the French Open begins later this month and has not dropped a set en route to the Madrid final.

    British second seed Murray and Japanese fourth seed Nishikori face each other at 19:00 BST on Saturday evening.

  24. While I am watching Murray and Nishi, I am just still on a high after Rafa’s performance. Berdy has been one of the hottest players along with Murray and Nishi and of course, Novak. To get a win in straight sets, basically taking him out of the match in that second set, well that was such a joy to see.

    Players sometimes get in the zone and that’s what happened with Rafa in the second set. He just couldn’t miss. To see him painting the lines with his groundstrokes with pinpoint accuracy was a thing of beauty. He was really feeling it and you could see it on his face. There was no fear, no doubt. He was confident and mentally strong. I also loved how Rafa stepped up in the tb. That was a tight first set and he stayed in there.

    But I am not celebrating yet. No breaking out the champagne! Rafa still has to go out there and win the title tomorrow. He has to just will himself to do it. Getting a title. That’s the cure to what’s been troubling Rafa.

    • My boyfriend who is an avid Federer fan surmises that they should just hand the trophy to Rafa…..he says there is no way after that performance that Andy or Niki is going to beat Nadal!!! He says, as a matter of fact, Berdych played better than both Murray and Niki…I only saw the tie break in Rafa’s match….and it was glorious!!! He did step up!!! Vamos!!!

    • My boyfriend who is an avid Federer fan surmises that IHHO there is no way that Andy or Nikk is going to beat Rafa tomorrow. He also says that Berdych played better than both Andy and Niki. I only saw Rafa’s tie-break…….it was glorious!!! Rafa should be happy with his performance and I hope he wins tomorrow…….vamos and welcome back Bobolat!!!

      By the way, Andy’s return is on song!!

  25. This win is just what the Doctor ordered! 🙂

    Also, I want to correct something I posted yesterday in the match preview discussion. I said that this isn’t the same Berdy that Rafa has played in the past. Well now I want to amend that to say that this wasn’t the same Rafa that Berdy played at the AO! 🙂

  26. I hope this stretches to three sets . They have started late and playing a demanding match here would be a disadv against rafa . Anyway, the way rafa played today, he does not have to worry about the opponent as long as he is able to sustain that level

  27. I cant believe my own eyes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I bought into the hype surrounding Kei’s form and to be honest didn’t believe Andy could keep it going for a second consecutive week. Tomorrow promises to be mouth-watering.

    • I am surprised that people thought Kei would beat Murray…….he hasn’t beaten Murray in the last three tries…….Murray has too much variety for Kei’s baseline game…..I was not surprised at all!!!

      • Mona,

        I did not buy into it. I said before the match that it could go either way. I thought it would be a good match and that Murray certainly could win. I don’t know why he’s not getting proper attention. He’s been playing very well.

        I also agree that this match highlighted that Murray has too many weapons. People got on the Kei bandwagon without paying attention to how well Murray is playing these days.

        Rafa is going to have his hands full with a Murray playing like this.

  28. *munching*

    Humble pie tastes so good! Bravissimo Muzza! Not taking anything away from Muzza but Kei looked a little sluggish, which is good because if he ends up in Rafa’s quarter at RG he won’t be 100%, especially as he is playing Rome.

    Muzza vs Rafa, tasty…….

      • Rafa and Muzza last played last year at RG semis, Rafa won 63, 62, 61. This was after Rome 2014 where Muzza breadsticked Rafa in the 1st set and was up a break in the 3rd before Rafa prevailed.

        Muzza is a clay dog now!

    • Tomorrow won’t be easy for Rafa.

      Muzza just won a title and Rafa is on his way back and not yet vintage Rafa.Rafa will be nervous tomorrow and Murray always plays well against Rafa n will take it to him.

      Not sure whom to pick.

      • This title is Rafa’s to lose. He will be ready for Muzza, and Andy knows that! Hope its a great match tomorrow!

      • rafa is definitely the favorite to win ! There are some doubts regarding rafa as we do not know whether he can sustain that high level. If he does that tomorrow, then we can be almost sure.

        SAnju, today’s performance was good enough to take murray down! rafa was playing really, really well.

  29. Murray is playing so well on clay now. Almost everyone had Kei as the favorite and many were saying Muzz has perhaps overplayed but he seems to be going very strong.

    • Murray has been in the Roland Garros semi final numerous times, he must be really good on clay. He did not participate in many 250- and 500- level tournaments, that’s why he only won his first clay title this year.

      • ^^ @Isco

        With respect two SF appearances at RG do not constitute “numerous occasions”.

        Both times he was defeated by Nadal in straight sets. But you are right in saying he is a far better player on the red stuff than many people give him credit for.

  30. I don’t know why anyone would think Murray would have overplayed. He’s incredibly fit. Murray’s just been getting better and better this year. He’s more like himself. He got his ranking back up to #3 after a terrible year.

    The thinking seems to be that clay is Murray’s weakest surface. He’s more comfortable on clay or even grass. But just like Novak, he can play on clay. Now that the back issue has been dealt with, Murray seems to be healthy and feeling good.

    Murray has been in the top four for the last six years. it was only after the back surgery that his ranking dropped. Some were too quick to write him off after a bad year. They were wrong.

    He is more than capable of giving Rafa a match. This one is not going to be easy. Rafa will need to play at the level he did in the last half of the second set. He will need to serve extremely well, like he did today. I am sure that he knows what to expect. Rafa has always respected Murray’s game.

  31. Today we saw vintage Rafa. He will take down even Djokovic playing like this.
    His inside out forehands were the kinds he was hitting at the RG finals in 2014.
    If he can sustain this level RG is his to lose.

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