Madrid SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Nishikori vs. Murray

KeiRafael Nadal will try to avenge an Australian Open loss when he goes up against Tomas Berdych on Saturday in Madrid. Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori are also aiming for a place in the title match.

(6) Tomas Berdych vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Berdych will be squaring off for the 23rd time in their careers when they battle for a spot in Mutua Madrid Open final on Saturday. Berdych ended a 17-match losing streak against Nadal by pulling off a 6-2, 6-0, 7-6(5) at the Australian Open earlier this year. But it is the Spaniard, of course, who is still dominating the head-to-head series 18-4. Nadal is a perfect 6-0 and has won 13 consecutive sets at Berdych’s expense on clay.

Both men coasted through their first two matches of the week, with Nadal disposing of Steve Johnson and Simone Bolelli while Berdych beat Richard Gasquet and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The Czech endured a much tougher day at the office on Friday, saving  one match point before outlasting John Isner 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-6(1) in two hours and nine minutes. Nadal, on the other hand, defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 6-4. The relatively fast conditions will help Berdych make this one more competitive than their previous clay-court encounters, but Nadal should once again take care of business playing at home on his favorite surface.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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(4) Kei Nishikori vs. (2) Andy Murray

Nishikori is two wins away from lifting the Madrid winner’s trophy, which just barely eluded him in 2014 when he was forced to retire in the final against Nadal. The world No. 5 needed three sets to win his opener against David Goffin before making more routine work of Roberto Bautista Agut and David Ferrer. Nishikori is now 29-5 on the season with two titles and one runner-up showing.

Up next for the Japanese star is a fifth career meeting with Murray. Nishikori had been winless in the head-to-head series before scoring a 6-4, 6-4 victory at the World Tour Finals last fall. The two competitors have never squared off on clay, which is Murray’s worst surface–although you would not know it from this week. The second-seeded Scot has taken out Philipp Kohlschreiber, Marcel Granollers, and Milos Raonic–dropping only one set to Kohlschreiber in the process. At some point all of this recent tennis (Murray won the Munich title on Monday) has to catch up with the world No. 3, and that is likely to happen against an opponent as red-hot as Nishikori.

Pick: Nishikori in 2

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3 Comments on Madrid SF previews and picks: Nadal vs. Berdych, Nishikori vs. Murray

  1. I don’t know why anyone would think Murray would have overplayed. He’s incredibly fit. Murray’s just been getting better and better this year. He’s more like himself. He got his ranking back up to #3 after a terrible year.

    The thinking seems to be that clay is Murray’s weakest surface. He’s more comfortable on clay or even grass. But just like Novak, he can play on clay. Now that the back issue has been dealt with, Murray seems to be healthy and feeling good.

    Murray has been in the top four for the last six years. it was only after the back surgery that his ranking dropped. Some were too quick to write him off after a bad year. They were wrong.

    He is more than capable of giving Rafa a match. This one is not going to be easy. Rafa will need to play at the level he did in the last half of the second set. He will need to serve extremely well, like he did today. I am sure that he knows what to expect. Rafa has always respected Murray’s game.

  2. Today we saw vintage Rafa. He will take down even Djokovic playing like this.
    His inside out forehands were the kinds he was hitting at the RG finals in 2014.
    If he can sustain this level RG is his to lose.

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