Madrid R1 previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Verdasco, Carreno Busta vs. Paire

Two of last week’s champions, Alexander Zverev and Pablo Carreno Busta, will be back in action at the Madrid Masters on Tuesday. Zverev is going up against Fernando Verdasco, while Carreno Busta is facing Benoit Paire.

Alexander Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco

Zverev and Verdasco will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers when they collide in round one of the Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday. Their only previous encounter came on the indoor hard courts of Metz in 2015, when Verdasco got the job done 6-7(2), 6-3, 6-3. Fast forward two years and Zverev is obviously a much different opponent at this point in time. The 20-year-old German owns three ATP titles after lifting another trophy just last week on the clay courts of  Munich. Zverev is now 18-8 this season and 7-2 on the red stuff, with one of those two losses coming to eventual Barcelona champion Rafael Nadal.

Verdasco is a modest 13-9 in 2017 and his clay-court swing is off to an unspectacular start. The 35th-ranked Spaniard got blown out by Steve Johnson 6-2, 6-4 in the Houston quarterfinals and fell to Laslo Djere 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 at the same stage in Budapest. A considerable edge in current form goes to Zverev, who is making a quick turnaround following a long week in Munich but was forced to play only one three-setter en route to the title.

Pick: Zverev in 3

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Benoit Paire vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Like Zverev, Carreno Busta also captured the third title of his career on Sunday. The 18th-ranked Spaniard won four consecutive matches in straight sets (over Tommy Robredo, Nicolas Almagro, David Ferrer, and Gilles Muller) to lift the Estoril trophy and improve to 22-11 in 2017. His season also includes a runner-up performance on the red clay of Rio de Janeiro and a semifinal showing in Indian Wells.

Up first for Carreno Busta on Tuesday is a fifth career showdown against Paire. The head-to-head series is all tied up at two wins apiece and 1-1 on clay. They most recently faced each other last spring in Estoril, where Carreno Busta cruised 6-3, 6-3. Paire has played just about every single week this year and has a mediocre 14-13 record at the ATP level to show for his efforts. The 52nd-ranked Frenchman is 1-4 in his last five matches dating back to the Marrakech semifinals and he is coming off a 6-3, 6-2 setback against Nicolas Almagro in the Estoril first round. As if Carreno Busta needs any help at the moment, he will get it from the Spanish crowd and should coast into the last 32.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 2

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29 Comments on Madrid R1 previews and predictions: Zverev vs. Verdasco, Carreno Busta vs. Paire

  1. From the same article in the Telegraph:

    “Back in his home province of Ontario, the locals are already frothing with extravagant statements of his greatness. Raonic is, in the words of the Toronto Sun, a “Canadian rock star”. Mind you, so is Bryan Adams. And the best Adams can hope to be remembered by his business is as a kind of bubblegum Springsteen.”

  2. Hawkeye, I don’t know how long you’ve been following tennis, but I remember Becker, McEnroe and Lendl in the same era. Just looked up some h2h for you to study as your homework. I’m off to bed now.

    Head To Head Matches – Chat About The Boris Becker vs John Mcenroe Head To Head
    Year Name Round Surface Winning Player Losing Player Score
    1992 Paris Masters R32 Carpet Boris Becker John McEnroe 6-4 6-4
    1992 Rotterdam SF Carpet Boris Becker John McEnroe 6-2 7-6
    1992 Australian Open R32 Hard John McEnroe Boris Becker 6-4 6-3 7-5
    1989 ATP World Tour Finals SF Carpet Boris Becker John McEnroe 6-4 6-4
    1989 Paris Masters SF Carpet Boris Becker John McEnroe 7-6 3-6 6-3
    1989 Milan SF Carpet Boris Becker John McEnroe 6-2 6-3
    1988 Indianapolis F Hard Boris Becker John McEnroe 6-4 6-2
    1986 Stratton Mountain SF Hard Boris Becker John McEnroe 3-6 7-5 7-6
    1985 Milan R32 Carpet John McEnroe Boris Becker 6-4 6-3

    • So you found ONE writer which you equate to “everyone”.

      Where’s all the Borg Vs Becker/Chang classics? Hahahahahaha.

      The rest you confirmed what I said…. old Mac and old Connors.

      Going to bed now? I think that’s where you found these alternate facts….

      #InYourDreams

        • McEnroe didn’t stop winning slams because he was challenged by the youngsters; he just fell apart, burned out, whatever. His level had already dropped massively in ’85 from where it was the year before. He lost the USO final that year to Lendl, and then managed just one slam QF in the next 3 years. At the end of that period (end of ’88) he wasn’t even 30. So in his case, at least, it wasn’t the next Gen. It was just him. Had he kept anywhere near his ’84 level (which he should have been able to do for the next 3-4 years) he would have won another 6 slams or more.

          I believe Wilander used to say that Mac was the most talented player ever. All of his slams came in the first golden age of tennis.

          • Hahahahahaha.

            Nadline’s advice she never follows.

            Nadline is up to TWO people, both media. A far cry from “everyone”. Certainly no one here or on any tennis forum. “Everyone” except nadline, the voice of “reason”.

            Speaking of opinions, still waiting for some of those “verifiable statements” of Becker or Chang having to battle Borg. You forgot to say IMO LOL.

            #NadlineFacts

    • Just a footnote: can’t really put McEnroe and Becker in the same era. Even though they overlapped several years, Mac was pretty much done as a champion by the time Becker came along. Hard to believe his last GS was in 1985, one year after he had maybe the most dominant year by a male player in the modern era. Even if he didn’t literally retire like Borg, Mac was through at 26. Massive waste of talent. Of course, it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.

      • I agree about McEnroe and Becker not being included in the same era. Good point. It’s interesting that McEnroe was never the same after Borg retired. In that brilliant documentary – McEnroe/Borg: Fire and Ice – McEnroe talked about his he tried to get Borg to come back to the game. He brought out the best in McEnroe. Without that rivalry, McEnroe wasn’t the same.
        ,

        • Yeah, maybe Borg had something to do with it -though his being retired didn’t stop Mac from having that incredible year in ’84. I think part of it was that McEnroe never really trained or even practiced (doubles took care of that), plus his diet was probably terrible. After reading Agassi’s book, I also strongly suspect that Mac may have been using drugs in the mid-80s. Whatever it was, he definitely through away a few prime years in his late 20s.

          • No one trained to any extent. Serious training started with Lendl who was the pioneer in that regard which revolutionized the game to what it is today and why players are now playing and in some cases peaking into their 30s.

  3. Well where slams are concerned, the youngsters weren’t/aren’t stopped by the big four, unless they’re unfortunate enough to draw them in R1 or R2. They were beaten by the other players more often then not, so it’s not the big four stopping them from winning the slams!

    Kygrios did beat Rafa at Wimbledon in 2014 in R4 but was then beaten by Raonic in the QF. He was beaten by Murray at AO one year but it was in the early round so even without Murray, I doubt Kygrios would go on to win that slam title!

    • Well yes Raonic would have a slam if it wasn’t for the Big Four and Nick had the classic letdown losing after beating Rafa and I’m so happy you have reconsidered and are reading My posts again Lucky!!!

      #BFFsAgain!!!!

    • LOL, they’ve been all spoiled by the Big Four and forget the game is more physical and players have better training methods to extend their careers.

      That, or just another case of….

      #ConfirmatoryBiasIsEverywhere

      • As for Becker and Changs teenage titles impressive as they were, they collectively beat a teenage Sampras at the French, a 23 yo Edberg on his worst surface and an old Lendl who never won a slam after that time. And a bunch of also rans.

        Those are called anomalies (as fun as they were to watch) that didn’t occur in the Gold Era.

  4. I don’t agree. Zverev, Kyrgios,Tomic etc aren’t winning slams not because the big 4 are standing in their way but because they are not in the same league as the Big 4 when they were in their teens/early twenties. I have a theory for that. These days the moment some promise is seen in a youngster, he is over hyped and sponsors rush in with millions. The immature player gets an inflated idea of himself and also with all the publicity and money, lacks the motivation for leading the almost monastic life of sacrifice and rigorous tough routines which great players follow.
    The Bog 4 are super talented and also disciplined and hardworking.
    Tomic even mentioned his net worth as the reason why he did not bother to seriously play the last shot in some match ( I think he held the racket the wrong way?)

    • Mary, Murray didn’t win a slam until he was 25. He was the one being stopped by the big three!

      I agree the youngsters are not as talented as the big four (Murray at 21 already reached a slam final), not only that, they’re not as good as the likes of Hewitt and Safin, who won a slam at their early 20s.

      These youngsters during their teenage years were stopped at the slams by non big four players, they’re not even good enough to beat a non big four top ten player. It’s only when they’re in their early to mid 20s that they’re experienced enough, skillful enough, to reach the later rounds at a slam and then were stopped by big four – Dimi and Thiem by Djoko at Wimbledon and FO respectively; Raonic by Fed and also Murray at Wimbledon; Dimi by Rafa at the AO, etc

      We will see both Kygrios and Zverev, now in their early 20s, how far they can go at the slams, now that the big four are getting on with age, and most of their fellow top ten players too.

    • Yes, Zverev seems to have a mental toughness and dedication rare for his age. Probably the most extreme case of a very talented guy who never really cared (because I believe he is literally a billionaire or will inherit billions) is Gulbis.

      • Gulbis is a prime example of an incredibly talented player who threw away a promising career through laziness, lack of discipline and work ethic and too much money. He was rich and just didn’t feel he had to make the effort. A total waste!

      • The nextgen super talent also has lots of money because of sponsorships. They are all more Gulbis like than big 4 like with the possible exception of Zverev.
        Genius is only 1% talent, rest is hardwork and these guys are therefore not genuises.

  5. So everyone agrees that today’s young players are not as talented as the Big 4. It also doesn’t help that they are being made to feel they’ve arrived by creating a NextGen group and labelling them future stars. No one knows how well they’ll do, we just have to wait and see.

  6. Yeah in this case everyone so much so as it is ridiculous to even talk about.

    There maybe collectively in the history of the open era 3-5 players that can compare to the Big Three.

    So putting anyone who has not even won a slam in the same category as these guys and Murray for that matter is a non starter and a ridiculous discussion.

    Which is why “everyone” never did to begin with. LOL.

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