Madrid R1 previews and picks: Fognini vs. Dolgopolov, Gulbis vs. Janowicz

Gulbis forehandFabio Fognini will be right back in action after finishing runner-up in Munich when he takes the court on Tuesday in Madrid against Alexandr Dolgopolov. Ernests Gulbis and Jerzy Janowicz are also bidding for a spot in the second round.

(13) Fabio Fognini vs. Alexandr Dolgopolov

Fognini and Dolgopolov will be doing battle for the fifth time in their careers at the ATP level when they clash in round one of the Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday. Dolgopolov has won all four of those previous encounters, including two this season. The Ukrainian dominated 6-1, 6-1 on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro and scored a 6-2, 6-4 victory at the Indian Wells Masters. He also won 6-2, 6-4 at the 2012 clay-court event in Munich. Fognini has at least beat his opponent once before, having won 7-5, 6-3 at a clay-court Challenger tournament back in 2007.

Dolgopolov’s solid 19-11 record this year is highlighted by a third-round Indian Wells upset of Rafael Nadal. The world No. 22 went on to reach the semifinals and also the quarters in Miami, but he is a modest 1-2 during the current red-dirt swing. Fognini is coming off a runner-up showing last week in Munich, where he had a meltdown in Sunday’s title match against Martin Klizan. The 15th-ranked Italian is 26-9 for his 2014 campaign, with two runner-ups and a title in Vina del Mar. Players rarely get more unpredictable than Fognini and Dolgopolov, but Dolgopolov may have an edge being more well-rested and based on his past success in this matchup.

Pick: Dolgopolov in 3

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Ernests Gulbis vs. Jerzy Janowicz

Janowicz went into 2014 with a foot injury and he has not been able to get on track. The world No. 21–still ranked that high because of Wimbledon semifinal points from last summer–has been especially ice cold since mid-February. In fact, he has not won a match since beating Tommy Haas in the Rotterdam second round. Janowicz lost openers in Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, and Barcelona while winning only a single set in the process. He also dropped two lower-level Davis Cup singles rubbers against Croatia (although one was a five-setter versus Marin Cilic).

Janowicz will look to stop the slide in his Madrid opener with Gulbis, against whom the Pole is 2-1 lifetime at the ATP level and 3-2 overall. They have faced each other only once on clay, when Janowicz pocketed a 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 win at a 2012 Challenger event in Rome. They most recently squared off last fall on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm, where Gulbis advanced to the semifinals via a 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 decision. The 20th-ranked Latvian is a stellar 18-8 for the year, which includes a title in Marseille, a quarterfinal finish in Indian Wells, and a recent semifinal performance in Barcelona. With a massive edge in current form and confidence, this should be one-way traffic for Gulbis.

Pick: Gulbis in 2

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35 Comments on Madrid R1 previews and picks: Fognini vs. Dolgopolov, Gulbis vs. Janowicz

  1. It’s a crap shoot trying to decide who to pick with Fognini and Dolgo. Honestly, it could go either way. Toss a coin. I will go with Fognini in three.

    I think it’s definitely Gulbis in two against JJ. Unless he has some major meltdown, this should be easy.

    • I hope you’re both right, but Gulbis could lose to any opponent on any day no matter what the circumstances.

  2. @snowdevil,

    Do you think that Gulbis can beat JJ? I don’t see him going far in this tournament, but he should get by a slumping JJ. As I said, unless Gulbis has a complete meltdown, which is not out of the realm of possibility.

    • i would not be surprised to see JJ win

      a match against Gulbis has delivered many a player from prolonged slumps

  3. Ricky,

    Yes, too true! That’s why I did qualify my prediction with the caveat about Gulbis having a major meltdown. He’s good at that. πŸ˜‰

  4. Both these matches should be good for a laugh!

    The Fog against the Dog in 3 – that is if Foggy behaves himself today.

    I heard Ernie has promised his coach not to break any more racquets πŸ™‚
    This will severely cramp his style in which case Jerzy could profit from an out of sorts Gulbis and take it in 3

    • LOL…some time ago he said that he has vowed to himself not to break rackets anymore because he visited the factory where his rackets were made and he felt ashamed after seeing how much effort goes into making each racket. That promise did not turn out well I guess…let’s see how this one goes lol

  5. Looking forward to Thiem vs Wawa tonight. Hope it’s not a damp squib like Grisha/PCB was last night……………

  6. There are two pressure cookers waiting to explode on Court 3. Touch and go which will be the first. Good match so far.

    • Jerzy is such an all or nothing player. Once his 1st serve goes AWOL he’s in deep trouble. Gulbis is keeping his cool.

  7. I am going to Ireland on Thursday so I won’t be able to watch wall to wall Madrid but will keep an eye on the score and hope Rafa does what he has to do.

    Vamos Rafa!

  8. Federer on his FB:

    “I’ve decided to withdraw from Madrid to be with my wife Mirka during these next few exciting weeks for our family. I apologize to my fans and hope to be back in Madrid next year. I’ll be training near my home, and am excited to rejoin the Tour soon!”

    • Totally not surprised, I did ask the question earlier when Fed would be in Madrid. Not like him to arrive late at tournaments and he usually has lots of promotional activities to do so when I saw he was not yet in Madrid I knew something was up.

      Hopefully this means Mirka is due anytime and Fed will be there at RG.

      Good luck Fed!

  9. Jerzy had a lot of success with his drop shots catching opponents by surprise when he first burst onto the scene. But now he tends to overuse it and it has become too predictable: he probably loses more points with it than he wins.

  10. They waited until the very last minute to make Fed’s announcement. I’m sure they always knew he wouldn’t play; he didn’t even bother to travel to Madrid. This is shabby treatment for those fans who would have spent a lot of money just to see Federer. It happened to me when Rafa pulled out of A. Dhabi in 2012. To say I was disappointed is putting it mildly.

  11. Fog and Dog shaping up for a dog fight. or maybe not since Foggy is seeking an MTO which appears to be in dispute: cant hear exacty what is being said.

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