Novak Djokovic will continue his Madrid campaign when he takes the court against Milos Raonic during quarterfinal action on Friday. A more surprising showdown in the last eight involves unseeded Joao Sousa…and four-time champion Rafael Nadal.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (11) Milos Raonic
Djokovic and Raonic will be going head-to-head for the seventh time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Friday. All six of their previous meetings have gone Djokovic’s way and he is 2-0 at Raonic’s expense on the dirt. The Canadian managed to be competitive on clay twice in 2014, losing 6-7(5), 7-6(4), 6-3 at the Rome Masters and 7-5, 7-6(5), 6-4 at the French Open. They most recently squared off this year in Indian Wells, where Djokovic coasted to the title with a 6-2, 6-0 victory.
Raonic was compromised by an adductor injury in that contest and it is the only thing that has slowed him down in 2016. When healthy, the world No. 10 has been in awesome form and he is currently third in the race to London. Raonic’s record stands at 23-4 following wins this week over Thomaz Bellucci, Alexandr Dolgopolov (in three sets), and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic has bounced back from a shocking Monte-Carlo loss to Jiri Vesely by making quick work of Borna Coric and Roberto Bautista Agut. The top-ranked Serb surrendered a grand total of 8 games in those two matches. Raonic will make this one far more interesting, but Djokovic’s return game has always gotten the best of Raonic’s offense–and there is no reason to think anything will be different this time.
Pick: Djokovic in 2 with at least one tiebreaker
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(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Joao Sousa
When the draw initially came out, among the potential quarterfinal opponents for Nadal were Roger Federer, Dominic Thiem, Juan Martin Del Potro, Jack Sock, and Benoit Paire. But after Federer withdrew and all of the other aforementioned competitors fell by the wayside, it will be Sousa standing on the other side of the net on Friday. The good friends and frequent training partners have faced each other only once before, and to say it did not end well for the Portuguese underdog would be an understatement. Nadal rolled 6-1, 6-0 on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro in 2014.
Sousa punched a surprising ticket to the last eight by taking out Nicolas Mahut, Marcel Granollers (the lucky loser who replaced Federer), and Jack Sock, surrendering only one set to Sock in a tiebreaker along the way. Success has come just about out of nowhere for world No. 35, who had previously been a horrendous 5-13 this season. Eyeing a fifth Madrid title, Nadal has advanced with straight-set victories over Andrey Kuznetsov and Sam Querrey. The fifth-seeded Spaniard trailed Querrey 3-0 very early in the proceedings, but he quickly restored order to dominate 6-4, 6-2 during third-round action on Thursday. Sousa does not give away cheap points and he will make this a scrappy baseline battle, but this is not the Nadal of 2015 and earlier in 2016 who was prone to being upset even by players well outside the top 20.
Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8-10 games
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Rafa holds serve. One thing is for sure – assuming Rafa wins this match, he is going to have to play much better against Andy. This won’t cut it.
That’s why we can’t get carried away yet. There are still some troubling mental lapses with rafa. He should have closed his out in straight sets. Now he has to slug it out in a third set.
Really dont like the way Rafa plays. He should’ve finished this in straight sets already, but as usual makes life difficult for himself by playing tentatively in set 2 even before they closed the roof.
Even if he wins this one, he’s not going to beat Murray playing like this unless Murray has an off day with his serve.
He’s missing all the easy shots now! Disappointing!
I don’t know what is going on with Rafa now. He really needs to wake up!
It’s concerning to see him battling against the likes of sousa.
rafa mark 2 in the house again..
This is very concerning right now. Rafa us letting Sousa dictate here.
Rafa holds serve. Now he needs to step up and show Sousa who’s boss!
Dont know whats Rafa thinking. Dont tell me hes so badly affected by the closed roof??
His ROS becomes so poor now!
Was it closing the roof? Maybe the delay while they closed it. I don’t know.
At least Rafa got the win. He’s in the semis.
Sousa really believes he can win this…his body language clearly shows it…
novak winning french this year for sure…maybe even murray
Rafa gets it done! But he will have to play much better against Andy.
Cant believe Rafa still has more winners than Sousa!
It seems to me that Rafa has lost at least some of his abilities to adapt to changing conditions during a match. He is not looking good to face Murray. Murray will be rubbing his hands in glee seeing Rafa playing like this!
Rafa match stats:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChyVWxVUoAAnzDj.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChyVY1DUUAACMjn.jpg
🙂 🙂
From the stats, we can see that Sousa was attacking by coming forward more, winning 12 of 15 points at the net.
Rafa rarely came forward and thats the problem with him, preferring to stay behind the baseline to rally all day, giving Sousa so much space to work with.
How come he can never learn a lesson? Always saying he has to be aggressive yet he’s not doing that when he’s playing his matches. Whats the point of saying it but not doing it? He’s clearly way better than Sousa at the net but yet prefers to stay back to defend most of the time!
Once you have an anxiety problem, it never really goes away. One can only learn to manage it and as Rafa recently said it is a daily routine to manage. It’s tenfold better than last year but it can creep in at any time. Nature of the beast
Toni’s approach was good years ago but it is counterproductive last three years almost after 2013 uso.
Rafa said a long time ago that he doesn’t have problems he had last year!
+ 1 hawks
?
Rafa’s on-court interview in Spanish (video) and a summary in English made by Genny:
Rafa says in the interview with Alex Corretja that the interruption for the rain wasn’t ideal…the balls became heavier and his shots weren’t hurting Sousa. Fortunately, the new balls came in a good moment and he was able to break at the right time. He is very happy with reaching SF again, he has now reached SF in many tournaments in a row. It’s very important for him, even more so, taking into account where he was coming from.
Finally, he once again thanks the crowd for the support. He’s delighted to be able to play another match tomorrow in front of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H44xnmLrLJ8
Sounded very much like FO 2012 final vs Djoko, when the rain came and the wet balls were heavy affecting Rafa’s topspin.
So now Rafa couldnt play well in the rain even on clay. He certainly didnt have this problem during his heydays, I dont remember him having such a problem back then and I’m sure he certainly did play in the rain on clay in the past and yet still didnt have problem. I remember him in 2010 playing against Ferrer at the Rome final in rainy conditions and Rafa won in straight sets with no problem.
Team Nadal must think of a way for Rafa to overcome this problem; perhaps he should hit hard and flat like Djoko and Sousa did in the rain, instead of hitting his topspin. No wonder Sousa was hitting without much missing after the rain, and Rafa OTOH was missing and overhitting and the ball just flown all over the place after coming off Rafa’s racket.
well it’s one thing having problems with damp balls against nole, especially as at that point he had lost so many matches to him, but against sousa!!??
#BetweenTheEars
agreed
I agree with Hawkeye, it’s in his mind that his topspin doesn’t work on damp balls so he over compensates for it.
From the ATP website:
¤¤ “I played pretty well in the first set,” said Nadal. “Perhaps he made a few errors, but also I think I played with very high intensity in the first set. I was hurting him with my balls and playing long and I was in control of the point most of the time.
“Winning 6-0 a player like Joao in a quarter-final here in Madrid, it just doesn’t happen. After that it started raining. The ball was a little bit heavier. I missed a few good opportunities. I had to suffer. I had to fight back and look for a solution. I managed to find a solution and solve it.” ¤¤
Some stats shown during Rafa’s match today.
Rafa’s 1st serve contact point on the Ad-side on clay in 2016 and 2015:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Chy5WhoWkAA20c1.jpg
(If my memory serves me correctly, vr has written about this on the GS.)
yeah… I talked about it way earlier than the commies even noticed any change *arrogance intended* LOLLL jk.
Rafa is committed to doing this. Quite interested to see how this works against Muzz and Andy.
Rafa’s post-match interview with the ATP staff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvUifyZvwOs
Rafa should stop inviting these upstarts to train with him in Mallorca. Coric went to train with him and thought he could challenge Rafa, admittedly, Rafa was ill at the time when he beat him, now Sousa, who has been training with Rafa recently thinks he can challenge Rafa.
Murray has been training with Rafa in Mallorca, hope he doesn’t have any ideas!!!
Raonic is playing c**p tennis.