Novak Djokovic will continue his Madrid campaign when he takes the court against Milos Raonic during quarterfinal action on Friday. A more surprising showdown in the last eight involves unseeded Joao Sousa…and four-time champion Rafael Nadal.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (11) Milos Raonic
Djokovic and Raonic will be going head-to-head for the seventh time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the Mutua Madrid Open on Friday. All six of their previous meetings have gone Djokovic’s way and he is 2-0 at Raonic’s expense on the dirt. The Canadian managed to be competitive on clay twice in 2014, losing 6-7(5), 7-6(4), 6-3 at the Rome Masters and 7-5, 7-6(5), 6-4 at the French Open. They most recently squared off this year in Indian Wells, where Djokovic coasted to the title with a 6-2, 6-0 victory.
Raonic was compromised by an adductor injury in that contest and it is the only thing that has slowed him down in 2016. When healthy, the world No. 10 has been in awesome form and he is currently third in the race to London. Raonic’s record stands at 23-4 following wins this week over Thomaz Bellucci, Alexandr Dolgopolov (in three sets), and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Djokovic has bounced back from a shocking Monte-Carlo loss to Jiri Vesely by making quick work of Borna Coric and Roberto Bautista Agut. The top-ranked Serb surrendered a grand total of 8 games in those two matches. Raonic will make this one far more interesting, but Djokovic’s return game has always gotten the best of Raonic’s offense–and there is no reason to think anything will be different this time.
Pick:Â Djokovic in 2 with at least one tiebreaker
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(5) Rafael Nadal vs. Joao Sousa
When the draw initially came out, among the potential quarterfinal opponents for Nadal were Roger Federer, Dominic Thiem, Juan Martin Del Potro, Jack Sock, and Benoit Paire. But after Federer withdrew and all of the other aforementioned competitors fell by the wayside, it will be Sousa standing on the other side of the net on Friday. The good friends and frequent training partners have faced each other only once before, and to say it did not end well for the Portuguese underdog would be an understatement. Nadal rolled 6-1, 6-0 on the clay courts of Rio de Janeiro in 2014.
Sousa punched a surprising ticket to the last eight by taking out Nicolas Mahut, Marcel Granollers (the lucky loser who replaced Federer), and Jack Sock, surrendering only one set to Sock in a tiebreaker along the way. Success has come just about out of nowhere for world No. 35, who had previously been a horrendous 5-13 this season. Eyeing a fifth Madrid title, Nadal has advanced with straight-set victories over Andrey Kuznetsov and Sam Querrey. The fifth-seeded Spaniard trailed Querrey 3-0 very early in the proceedings, but he quickly restored order to dominate 6-4, 6-2 during third-round action on Thursday. Sousa does not give away cheap points and he will make this a scrappy baseline battle, but this is not the Nadal of 2015 and earlier in 2016 who was prone to being upset even by players well outside the top 20.
Pick:Â Nadal in 2 losing 8-10 games
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who you got?
Same but no breaker.
I’ve got Rafa in 2 sets — Sousa winning 3-4 games.
And, Nole ole in 2 with a tie-breaker – worst case scenario.
I’ll take the over on your Rafa games lost rc.
Rafa in 2 sets over Sousa. As far as how many games Rafa will lose, I am going back and forth with 5-7 and 8-10. Hopefully Rafa will come out sharp and just take control of this match.
Novak in 2 sets over raonic, but I do not expect to see the same scoreline as in the I/W final. I don’t think there will be any TB’s.
Joker and Rafa in beat downs!
Rafa must do more with his backhand…it’s been kind of disappointing this week….
Rafa in straights losing 5-7 games. Sousa could win a bit more but overall should get through pretty easily. And I think Nole wins in straights with no breaker. Something like 3 and 4.
Well I got three and four for Novak right but Rafa’s match was closer than expected. Technically Ricky u got # of games right just it happened in three lol.
Rafa needs to lift his level for the semis and the finals… Sousa match should serve for Rafa to clean his shots and practice some agressive tennis instead of pure defense that Rafa was most of the match forced to do against Querrey.
Rafa did play better towards the end of the match yesterday but quite frankly he was generously assisted by Sam’s errors…Rafa needs to be more in control not having to wait for the opponent errors! He will not have those against either Andy or Novak!
Vamos Champ!
Querrey didn’t make errors for nothing; most of those were caused by Rafa. Rafa just forced him to go for more, beat Querrey with Rafa’s speed around the court and with his incredible passing shots and defense.
I guess it’s Rafa’s way of playing – when faced with an aggressive on fire player, Rafa would go on the defense but think of ways to force his opponent to go for more and thus his opponent would make more errors.
I agree, but IMO Rafa did not play well in this match, dropping short balls which were easy to exploit by Sam. Look, we are talking about Querrey here who is lousy on clay and Rafa should have destryed him! True Sam has powerful serve but nothing more can be added to his forte on clay…Rafa definitely has to go more for his shots otherwise he will end up being bullied by Andy who prefers defensive endless points…
Querrey did hit some great FHs or BHs, its not just about his serves. He moved inside the court to hit his shots, forcing Rafa further back hence Rafa’s short returns/shots.
The problem with Rafa is that he takes his time to settle into a match, giving his aggressive opponent (s) so much time and space to attack.
Its only at RG (and at the later stages of slams)that I can see an aggressive Rafa coming out all guns blazing from the get go, the way he played and beat Djoko at RG from 2012-2014, beat Murray at RG2014; beat Ferrer time and again at RG.
His recent clay matches and titles that he won, he was busy doing catch ups before turning the table to win them – vs Thiem, Murray, Monfils, Fog, Kohl, Kei – he just has his habit of starting slow and figuring out a way to win.
I do hope Rafa can come out all guns blazing when facing Djoko, for when Djoko is ahead, its really very difficult to catch up with him to beat him.
I agree about how Rafa played against Querrey. He allowed Querrey to take charge in the early going. Then he had to come back in the first set, which he was able to do against Querrey. But he won’t have that luxury against Murray or Novak.
I expect Rafa to play better in the quarterfinals and save his best for the semis. He will need it.
Novak 6-2, 7-5
Nadalv 6-3, 6-2
When Sunday final will bi played? I couldnt find that information on Internet.
Milos experiences a meltdown when playing Novak…I doubt he will take it to a tiebreak…Novak in 2 fairly easy sets…
Milos played well against Novak in Rome in 2014 – took the first set and came close in the 2nd. Then Novak won the 3rd easily. In their last match Milos was bothered by the adductor yet again. So even though I expect Novak to win the match, think Milos is capable of making it competitive.
Be calm, be focused, be confident, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChxW54mW0AAFz19.jpg
So far, Sousa is out of his depth. Rafa is vamossing!
1st set Rafa 60.
Rafa Set 1 stats:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Chx9z7IW0AA1oYR.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Chx922JWsAA26J9.jpg
🙂
Just when you think it’s routine, Rafa is broken and Sousa is serving for the second set. It was looking too easy.
Rafa isn’t playing well…he is making too many errors…can’t believe he is letting Sousa dictate the points…
I was right in estimating Rafa’s level of play. He is letting his opponents do their work being passive and inert…this approach will take him nowhere…
Vamos Rafa! Get aggressive!!!
I still cannot believe that this has gone to a third set.
am not surprised after yesterday. is he feeling the pressure again because he is playing at home?
Maybe.
Yeah, yesterday’s match was clear indication of Rafa dropping in leve of play…hope he can bounce back now…don’t know where the preassure comes from?!
pressure of playing at home..self-generated pressure after playing with nerves for over a year…
very difficult to shake that off completely..
also pressure of people expecting him to win after mc and barcelona…
From within.
just get a bloody grip rafa!
Nadal….smh
not good
Nadal = looooooooooooooooool
but be careful who you laugh at
might come back to haunt you in the VERY near future
lol i kno….but he’s such an frustrating ahtlete, bags of talents but do know where he’s head goes sometimes
Rafa is really not playing to his full potential imo and yeah dont know where his head goes sometimes. All thanks to Toni for making him such a ‘timid’ young man and not believing he can be or is better than most others.
It seems that Rafa is just not willing to play aggressive tennis taking more risks; prefers to counterpunch against aggressive opponents and thus toiling and grinding more often than not, rather than making use of his blessed gift, ie hitting more authoritatively with his FH esp, attacking with winners. Instead, he prefers to work so hard to extract errors from his opponents and doing all the defending. He makes guys like Sousa, Querrey, Kohl look better than they really are!
true…
ur not wrong…. the way he play today u would think Murray will blast him out of the cort tomorow, watch how u see a different player loool so frustrating.
agree lucky. only last week toni was coming up with his usual stuff. courier and j-mac are always saying he needs to be reminded of how great he is and i agree with that..
Rafa holds serve. One thing is for sure – assuming Rafa wins this match, he is going to have to play much better against Andy. This won’t cut it.
That’s why we can’t get carried away yet. There are still some troubling mental lapses with rafa. He should have closed his out in straight sets. Now he has to slug it out in a third set.
Really dont like the way Rafa plays. He should’ve finished this in straight sets already, but as usual makes life difficult for himself by playing tentatively in set 2 even before they closed the roof.
Even if he wins this one, he’s not going to beat Murray playing like this unless Murray has an off day with his serve.
He’s missing all the easy shots now! Disappointing!
I don’t know what is going on with Rafa now. He really needs to wake up!
It’s concerning to see him battling against the likes of sousa.
rafa mark 2 in the house again..
This is very concerning right now. Rafa us letting Sousa dictate here.
Rafa holds serve. Now he needs to step up and show Sousa who’s boss!
Dont know whats Rafa thinking. Dont tell me hes so badly affected by the closed roof??
His ROS becomes so poor now!
Was it closing the roof? Maybe the delay while they closed it. I don’t know.
At least Rafa got the win. He’s in the semis.
Sousa really believes he can win this…his body language clearly shows it…
novak winning french this year for sure…maybe even murray
Rafa gets it done! But he will have to play much better against Andy.
Cant believe Rafa still has more winners than Sousa!
It seems to me that Rafa has lost at least some of his abilities to adapt to changing conditions during a match. He is not looking good to face Murray. Murray will be rubbing his hands in glee seeing Rafa playing like this!
Rafa match stats:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChyVWxVUoAAnzDj.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChyVY1DUUAACMjn.jpg
🙂 🙂
From the stats, we can see that Sousa was attacking by coming forward more, winning 12 of 15 points at the net.
Rafa rarely came forward and thats the problem with him, preferring to stay behind the baseline to rally all day, giving Sousa so much space to work with.
How come he can never learn a lesson? Always saying he has to be aggressive yet he’s not doing that when he’s playing his matches. Whats the point of saying it but not doing it? He’s clearly way better than Sousa at the net but yet prefers to stay back to defend most of the time!
Once you have an anxiety problem, it never really goes away. One can only learn to manage it and as Rafa recently said it is a daily routine to manage. It’s tenfold better than last year but it can creep in at any time. Nature of the beast
Toni’s approach was good years ago but it is counterproductive last three years almost after 2013 uso.
Rafa said a long time ago that he doesn’t have problems he had last year!
+ 1 hawks
?
Rafa’s on-court interview in Spanish (video) and a summary in English made by Genny:
Rafa says in the interview with Alex Corretja that the interruption for the rain wasn’t ideal…the balls became heavier and his shots weren’t hurting Sousa. Fortunately, the new balls came in a good moment and he was able to break at the right time. He is very happy with reaching SF again, he has now reached SF in many tournaments in a row. It’s very important for him, even more so, taking into account where he was coming from.
Finally, he once again thanks the crowd for the support. He’s delighted to be able to play another match tomorrow in front of them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H44xnmLrLJ8
Sounded very much like FO 2012 final vs Djoko, when the rain came and the wet balls were heavy affecting Rafa’s topspin.
So now Rafa couldnt play well in the rain even on clay. He certainly didnt have this problem during his heydays, I dont remember him having such a problem back then and I’m sure he certainly did play in the rain on clay in the past and yet still didnt have problem. I remember him in 2010 playing against Ferrer at the Rome final in rainy conditions and Rafa won in straight sets with no problem.
Team Nadal must think of a way for Rafa to overcome this problem; perhaps he should hit hard and flat like Djoko and Sousa did in the rain, instead of hitting his topspin. No wonder Sousa was hitting without much missing after the rain, and Rafa OTOH was missing and overhitting and the ball just flown all over the place after coming off Rafa’s racket.
well it’s one thing having problems with damp balls against nole, especially as at that point he had lost so many matches to him, but against sousa!!??
#BetweenTheEars
agreed
I agree with Hawkeye, it’s in his mind that his topspin doesn’t work on damp balls so he over compensates for it.
From the ATP website:
¤¤ “I played pretty well in the first set,” said Nadal. “Perhaps he made a few errors, but also I think I played with very high intensity in the first set. I was hurting him with my balls and playing long and I was in control of the point most of the time.
“Winning 6-0 a player like Joao in a quarter-final here in Madrid, it just doesn’t happen. After that it started raining. The ball was a little bit heavier. I missed a few good opportunities. I had to suffer. I had to fight back and look for a solution. I managed to find a solution and solve it.” ¤¤
Some stats shown during Rafa’s match today.
Rafa’s 1st serve contact point on the Ad-side on clay in 2016 and 2015:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Chy5WhoWkAA20c1.jpg
(If my memory serves me correctly, vr has written about this on the GS.)
yeah… I talked about it way earlier than the commies even noticed any change *arrogance intended* LOLLL jk.
Rafa is committed to doing this. Quite interested to see how this works against Muzz and Andy.
Rafa’s post-match interview with the ATP staff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvUifyZvwOs
Rafa should stop inviting these upstarts to train with him in Mallorca. Coric went to train with him and thought he could challenge Rafa, admittedly, Rafa was ill at the time when he beat him, now Sousa, who has been training with Rafa recently thinks he can challenge Rafa.
Murray has been training with Rafa in Mallorca, hope he doesn’t have any ideas!!!
Raonic is playing c**p tennis.