Rafael Nadal will try to end a two-match losing streak against Alexander Zverev when they clash in the Madrid quarterfinals on Friday. Meanwhile, unseeded John Isner will try to keep his run going at the expense of Dominic Thiem.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (5) Alexander Zverev
Nadal and Zverev will be squaring off for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Mutua Madrid Open on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 5-2 in Nadal’s favor, but Zverev has won each of their two most recent encounters–6-2, 6-4 at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals and 6-4, 7-5 at last year’s Paris Masters.
Of course, both of those meetings came during what is always Nadal’s worst time of year–the indoor fall swing. This one comes at much different time, one that is the 34-year-old Spaniard’s favorite. Nadal may not be quite at his dominant best on clay these days, but he triumphed in Barcelona and so far in Madrid he has erased Carlos Alcaraz and Alexei Popyrin. Zverev is through to the Madrid quarters for the fourth time in four appearances, which includes a title in 2018. Conditions are perfect for the sixth-ranked German, so this could be Nadal’s toughest test of the entire week. Still, on clay and in Spain you have to think the five-time Madrid champion will get the job done in the end.
Pick: Nadal in 3
(3) Dominic Thiem vs. John Isner
Few would have predicted that Thiem vs. Isner would be a quarterfinal matchup in Madrid. Although Thiem is one of the best clay-court players in the world, he was coming off a month-long hiatus due to both physical and mental struggles. Isner has also played sparingly of late and he has never been at his best on the red stuff. Nonetheless, it has all turned around for both players this week. Thiem did not drop a set in early-round defeats of Marcos Giron and Alex de Minaur, while Isner has taken out Miomir Kecmanovic, Roberto Bautista Agut, and Andrey Rublev–the latter two in third-set tiebreakers.
It can’t be considered too big of a surprise for Isner, because the high-altitude conditions in Madrid suit his game to perfection. The 6’11” American has now advanced to the quarterfinals in three straight appearances. However, he has never reached the semis and this will be a tough task on the heels of two consecutive three-marathons–especially tough against a two-time French Open runner-up. Thiem should be able to get enough balls back in play to wear down Isner at the end of another entertaining three-setter.
Pick: Thiem in 3
Having said this I think he will play well in Rome..rem 19..lost to Fabio ,tsitsipas ,thiem n then won Rome n rg
Yes diff is 2 years older now
Rafa played a lousy match.. moonballing, hitting short, camping behind the baseline, serving below par… even playing like this he was ahead in this match and at the edge to win the first set.. all was on Rafa’s racquet: when he played better he outplays Zverev, then he goes on to beat himself… This surface is not Rafa’s forte and he lost here even when wining most on clay…
As long as Rafa stays healthy he will continue to progress and his only goal is RG, the rest is just practice sessions…
Vamos Champ!
nats,
I like your take on the match. You put it in perspective. Summed it up very well.
I hope that Rafa feels more comfortable at Rome. Moving on!
Expect that to happen a lot more often. Of course he played lousy, he’s been lousy the whole clay season and for good reason.
The younger players and their teams/coaches know Nadal, Djokovic and Fed are vulnerable. We are witnessing the biggest shift in the game right now.
It was good to see one of the players finally take Nadal head on. Tistispas and Thiem still like to play second fiddle to Nadal. Reckon that will change a lot this year. Can’t wait for RG.
Who will win Madrid? There’s no Berrettini in the list who is a big chance. Lol.
Ricky put Auger-Aliassime and Medvedev before Berrettini.
he’s not going to win it
Maybe not but he was a better chance than those 2 at the start of the tournament.
Zverev is 24 now, doubt he will lose to Nadal ever again.
Yep, you heard that right here.
The names on the trophies eventually start to change. Accept reality.
Rafa loses lead-up tournaments every clay season, and inevitably a few pundits get drawn in and declare that this is the year he loses it. He then proceeds to win it, and with relative ease. Three or four sets in the final, done and dusted.
So for anyone predicting a Rafa loss, the question has to be: what is significantly different about this year? Who is realistically going to beat Nadal? It’s certainly not the old heads. Djokovic? Nope. Federer? Forget about it. Turning younger now: Medvedev? Not a chance on dirt. Rublev has a chance, but he’s still one-dimensional. Over five sets Rafa will use the whole court to cut him down to size. Zverev got the best of Rafa in Madrid, and his defence is strong, but you can never really rely on Zverev.
This leaves the two biggest threats: the old number one contender (Thiem) and perhaps the new number one contender (Tsitsipas). A Thiem upswing is certainly possible, but he’s never actually gone five in the past, and right now he’s still finding form. Tsitsipas showed real grit at the AO, but five sets with Nadal on clay is a different beast. His recent loss at Barcelona also showed promise, but the question remains: if you can’t beat Nadal during one of his best-of-three warm-up tournaments, how are you going to crack him in tougher conditions when it’s best-of-five?
Well don’t forget though that rafa is 35 now and like mutual funds disclaimers ,past performance is never a guarantee of future performance. I just hope rafa somehow sneaks one rg to make it 14. He will lose at rg sooner than later and that is inevitable.
EXACTLY! This guy is smart. Couldn’t have said it better myself.
I agree, but it’s always been inevitable, nothing has changed in that respect. No guarantees, no free lunches etc. Every year of age helps the field vs Rafa… and yet there still hasn’t been a significant decline.
We used to hear that players go down after 30. Then 32, 33…now 34. If Rafa wins, we might just hear about how the magic number is 35.
Rafa loses lead-up tournaments every clay season, and inevitably a few pundits get drawn in and declare that this is the year he loses it. He then proceeds to win it, and with relative ease. Three or four sets in the final, done and dusted.
No, this is the year that there is a noticeable decline in his performance that is completely consistent with the fact that each year from 34 onwards and player has a significantly lessor chance of winning grand slams.
I didn’t even read the rest of your post because you were clearly wrong from the outset.
You either already knew this and are trolling or you still have a bit to learn about how things work.
Sorry, I retract this post, that was a bit harsh. You’re entitled to present your view and it was a well considered one. I just disagree with your first statement.
No problem – and I am happy to be wrong. I just don’t think Rafa’s form is that much worse than previous years, but I understand some will disagree.
Zverev, Thiem and Tsistipas are all strong contenders and there will be many others that are realizing that he is more vulnerable than he has ever been. That mental shift will make many players dangerous at RG this year.
Agreed – for the big three, the shoe may be on the other foot now. Earlier one next gen had to beat multiple goats to win which was a tall order. Now each goat may have to beat multiple next gens to win which may prove to be difficult
Great post. Agree!
thinwhiteduke,
What a pleasure to read a post by someone who actually knows what he is talking about! A big improvement over nasty attacks on someone’s country or the usual anti-Rafa dribble. Or someone acting like they are some kind of expert and insulting the knowledge of others.
You made your points with reason and facts and without acting like you are above everyone else.
Thank you!
Nice post, NNY, thanks!
I’m pretty concerned over Rafa’s tennis so far this year, but it’s probably not time to panic yet. His fighting spirit is still intact, obviously. That’ll probably be the last thing to go.
Zverev just took Thiem out and I thought Thiem looked pretty good v Isner so maybe Zv is just having the tournament of his life in a place that obviously suits him and does not suit Rafa’s game. I am worried about Rafa’s serve, but what else is new? We’ll just have to wait and see. Rafa doesn’t think he’s done yet, so I’ll hang in there as long as he does.
Ramara,
Thanks! I agree with you about being concerned regarding Rafa’s form especially the serve. He has been inconsistent. The serve seemed better in Barcelona. The final was Rafa’s best match. He was mentally in the fight playing a guy who had been on fire.
Rafa’s comments about his loss were great to read. He has such clarity and honesty. It was a step back for him. Madrid has never been his best tournament because of the conditions. Big servers like Zverev have the advantage. Rafa once again struggled with his serve. I feel his frustration.
I think you have the right attitude. We will know more at Rome, because conditions there are much better for him. Rafa is still fighting hard. We know he’s getting older and things can start to deteriorate. It’s just the way of things.
Only time will tell.
😘
Ramara,
Thanks! I agree with you about being concerned regarding Rafa’s form especially the serve. He has been inconsistent. The serve seemed better in Barcelona. The final was Rafa’s best match. He was mentally in the fight playing a guy who had been on fire.
Rafa’s comments about his loss were great to read. He has such clarity and honesty. It was a step back for him. Madrid has never been his best tournament because of the conditions. Big servers like Zverev have the advantage. Rafa once again struggled with his serve. I feel his frustration.
I think you have the right attitude. We will know more at Rome, because conditions there are much better for him. Rafa is still fighting hard. We know he’s getting older and things can start to deteriorate. It’s just the way of things.
Only time will tell.
😘
I apologize for the double post.
Just wanted to add that the best source about Rafa’s losses is Rafa’s pressers. The man is smart and honest. He’s especially honest with himself, about himself. It’s one of the secrets of his huge success imo.
Thanks NativeNewYorker, I appreciate that.
It will be interesting to see how Rome plays out for all the players I previously mentioned (except Federer, for whom we’ll have to wait for Geneva). I agree that the serve is the biggest question mark for Rafa right now. I don’t think he’ll be panicking by any means, but he’ll surely want to improve it before RG.
It will at wimby n ao too. It cant be that it will be at rg n won’t happen at other 2
Frankly I never expected rafa to win Madrid .it’s his least fav tourney .im more keen to see what he does at Rome
I thought Nadal got lucky in Barcelona and ran into a substandard Tsitsipas based on how he had been playing during his long win streak.
IMO, Nadal just squeezed enough out to win that match and that was probably his peak for the season.
Again pure bullshit and bias about Rafa’s win at Barcelona. Someone’s bias is showing and that colors what is said. If you have an innate bias towards a player, then you will always find a way to minimize his victories.
Tsitsipas came in as the in form player at Barcelona after winning Monte Carlo. He played very well and took it to Rafa. Rafa served quite well in that match and was mentally tough throughout. Tsitsipas gave him nothing. He fought hard right to the end.
It was a well earned victory by Rafa. Enough said.
Zverev rafa on qf collision course again and sinner a potential firat opponent for rafa.. tsitsi in opp half
Evans potential first round for evans
Well my wish tsitsi ,thiem ,djoko ,fed all in other half .rublev as Rafas qf opponent n zverev for med
If rafa faces zverev again in Rome ,he will beat him..no way he is not learning from yest horror
The tricky one can be sinner though .Rafas first match in Rome
Thats my wish for rg..only one is guaranteed..thiem in other half as rafa will be no 3 ..fed has not been a challenge for rafa at rg but I’m still scared of fed given he has beaten rafa 5 out of last 6 times
https://youtu.be/XBnkp_fk120
Tennis tv doing a great job of streaming for free on youtube
Put simply, Nadal’s at that age where the records say you don’t win grand slams at RG. 35 is a big difference to 34 and to make things even more difficult the top younger players have reached an age where they are ready to dominate.
Tsistipas had grown a lot during the offseason physically and mentally and same with Zverev.
When you add all of this you can see why many are predicting a new RG champion this year.
Damn it! They also pushed rg by a week meaning rafa will turn 35 in week 1 itself. If they had brought it earlier, rafa could have avoided the disadvantage of turning 35 and sealed it at 34
Hahaha
and not only that the players know it and are coming after Nadal. He’s now the hunted which is a reversal in psychology, an edge Nadal has had all his career.
Zverev is hungry. Up 3-1 and arguing with the umpire every 2nd point. I like that.
I love the way Zverev steps around his backhand and hits the forehand down the line.