Roger Federer survived two match points against Gael Monfils and now faces another tough clay-court test against Dominic Thiem on Friday in Madrid. Quarterfinal action also includes a showdown between Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic.
(4) Roger Federer vs. (5) Dominic Thiem
Federer and Thiem will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this spring when they battle for a place in the Mutua Madrid Open semifinals on Friday. Thiem pulled ahead 3-2 in the head-to-head series with a 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 upset in the Indian Wells final two months ago. That victory was the Austrian’s third on three different surfaces against Federer, having previously prevailed 7-6(2), 6-4 on the red clay of Rome in 2016 and 3-6, 7-6(7), 6-4 shortly thereafter on the Stuttgart grass. Federer took care of Thiem without any trouble in their first two hard-court encounters at the 2016 Brisbane event and at the Nitto ATP Finals last fall.
If the 37-year-old Swiss was a considerable favorite to triumph at the Indian Wells Masters, the script is flipped in Madrid. Whereas he had not played on clay since 2016 prior to beating Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils earlier this week, Thiem has been one of the best dirtballers in the world over the past few seasons. The French Open runner-up lifted the trophy in Barcelona two weeks ago before taking out Reilly Opelka and recent Monte-Carlo champion Fabio Fognini so far in Madrid. Conditions at this event suit Thiem perfectly and he will likely control more than enough of these clay-court rallies to send Federer packing for his first trip to Roland Garros since 2015.
Pick: Thiem in 2
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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (9) Marin Cilic
Both Djokovic and Cilic have picked up some much-needed wins this week and one will take another important step into the semifinals on Friday, when they collide for the 20th time in their careers. Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 17-2, with only two of their meetings having come on clay. The top-ranked Serb got the job done 6-3, 6-2, 6-7(2), 6-4 at the 2014 French Open and 6-0, 6-3 one year later in Monte-Carlo. Cilic scored upsets in 2016 (Paris Masters) and 2018 (Queen’s Club) but has since lost three more in a row at the hands of his nemesis.
It has been a dreadful season so far for Cilic, who was saddled with a 4-6 record before picking up Madrid victories over Martin Klizan, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Laslo Djere–all in three sets. Djokovic has struggled since bulldozing everything his path at the Australian Open, but he is through to the quarters this week thanks to straight-set defeats of Taylor Fritz and Jeremy Chardy. Expect another routine day at the office for the No. 1 seed, as his opponent is still short on confidence and perhaps feeling the effects of three three-setters.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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WYG?
Fed’s game has looked very good to me except for the serve If he can raise that percentage near to 60% he can definitely win this match. He has to vary his shots and use the slice (though Thiem has a wicked BH slice as well). I think this one goes 3 sets with Thiem a slight favorite to take it.
I originally said Thiem in 2, but I think I’ll change to Thiem in 3, as the Fed-Monfils match wasn’t as grueling as I assumed it was, and Fed’s got nothing to lose. However, I won’t be surprised by a straight-sets win by Thiem. Thiem was the last guy to beat Fed on clay, and he’s only gotten 10 times better since then. While Fed’s attacking game has improved since 2016, the aspects of his game that he really needs on clay have not improved, and he’s friggin’ old. His baseline game just looks so weak to me on a slower surface like this. He’s going to have to serve lights out and be highly successful with attacking to have a chance against Thiem here. Madrid is better for attacking than the other clay tournaments, but not enough for what he’ll need against an in-form Thiem, unfortunately. Maybe Thiem will wet the bed? I guess it’s possible haha?
Yep, Fed’s old, but did you see his defense in some of those rallies against Monfils? Gael hits the ball about as hard as Thiem, but he hit very few balls by Roger, even though he was hugging the baseline throughout. Fed needs to hit angled shots and some drop shots to bring Thiem to the net and not let him get too comfortable in the rallies. He also needs to come in and be willing to get passed sometimes, again for the sake of variety and to put pressure on Thiem. I think he’ll do it; I just have a feeling that Fed may win this one.
Fed’s backhand looks so weak these days. He had a few routine backhands at the end of the 3rd set that didn’t even make it halfway up the net. He just looks so tentative on it. Just from the baseline in general, he looks to me like he often feels naked out there on the clay court. My biggest concern is his lack of depth. It just seemed like 75% of his rally shots were landing short. If he can’t create his own power from the back of the court like he used to, he at least has to have consistent depth. Thiem will just destroy those short shots. He looked his most confident and effective when he was attacking and coming to net. He’s not going to be able to just slug it out with Thiem from the baseline. And I don’t agree with you that Monfils hits as hard as Thiem. Monfils sometimes hits that hard, but Thiem consistently has the fastest average groundstroke speed on tour. When they measured every player’s average groubdstroke speed at the US Open last year, he was #1 with a bullet.
Yeah Kevin, and the difference between Monfils and Thiem is that Monfils sometimes forget to use his brain! Thiem is smarter and getting better these days with his court craft, maybe Massu did and does change something in Thiem. He’s making calculated moves in his aggression and his point construction, and not just hitting as hard as possible like before.
Interesting what tactics Fed will use, lot of subtlety in his game not just attack.
Fed in 3….Joker in 2.
Thiem and Djoko in two(unless Cilic plays in the zone tennis, then Djoko in three because Cilic won’t sustain that for a whole match).
Fed was lucky to get out of jail against Monfils. This is another test that is just too much too soon for Fed on his weakest surface and the difference between Theim and Monfils is Theim wont let opportunities slip on his favorite surface. Theim has Djokovic next and will want to be clinical heading into that match.
Theim in 2
Djokovic in 2. Cilic should be happy with the improvement heading towards Rome bu this is where it ends for him. Djokovic has Theim next and will want to win this without dropping a service game.
I agree with your analysis Jim Courier. I think you’re right that both Djoko and Thiem have each other in mind for their next match, and both would come out all guns blazing and leave their opponents with no or at least not much chances of beating them.
If either Novak or Thiem has each other in mind for their next match that would be the surest sign that they will lose. The first rule of tournament tennis is: don’t look past the guy you’re playing next.
Ha ha, don’t tell me they don’t know their draw and their next possible opponent! All the more they’ll concentrate on winning the coming match as efficiently as possible.
Why would someone not try to win as efficiently as possible, in any match? There is no “all the more” when it comes to trying to win efficiently.
My point is that right now and up until their next matches are over, neither Djokovic nor Thiem will be thinking about playing each other, believe me.
No, they’re not thinking about the next next match when they’re eating or sleeping; but they’re well aware, at the business end of things, about who they’re most likely going to play. And, winning more efficiently means not allowing oneself to have lapses or to make silly mistakes, ie having full concentration.
In the early rounds, one may have to spend more time getting used to the conditions, the surfaces, getting into grooves.
Hi Joe, in theory that should be true but in reality it happens in all sports. NBA and tennis are 2 good examples, the dominant teams or players will usually use the previous match as preparation for the big match. Its a big motivational factor.
Wawrinka is proving it also, he knew he had big matches against Nishikori and Nadal next so thats why he’s red-ling now. Hasnt dropped a service game so far and served a lot of aces.
Nadal has been Wawrinka’s demon for the past 2 years since his defeat in the Roland Garros final and he’ll be seeking redemption.
Maybe if Novak and Thiem were playing no-names in the QFs there would be some truth to what you say, but that’s not the case.
There’s also a massive difference between individual and team sports when it comes to this kind of thing. The chances of an upset in individual sports is much, much greater than in team sports.
Think of the basketball or football analogue to Rosol beating Nadal, for instance. The 100th best football team in the world is some average Div I or maybe even Div II team. Such a team would have zero chance of beating the Patriots. But in tennis upsets of this magnitude happen; that’s why players always have to be prepared and can’t afford to look to the next round.
The statistics prove also that if a team or player underperforms in a game, they will not perform at the required rating level on average to win the next game when there is a low margin for error to win that game. Coaches use this to motivate their teams/players all the time.
I’ve never heard of even top players looking one match ahead. Each match has its own unique problems,even for them.Of course they want to finish every match as efficiently as they can.
i’ve definitely heard of it plenty of times. just rare.
Of course they look ahead. The top players know where they need to be to compete against the other best players and they aim for that in preliminary matches.
If you watch NBA you wouldve seen The Warriors coasting for half a dozen games and just getting it done and then just before they have to play The Rockets or Bucks they will beat 1 or 2 teams by a blow out because they know theyve got a big game coming up and they need to be at the top of their game.
It’s obvious the top players know they will likely have to beat the other top players to win the big tournaments. So they bring their best tennis and try to spend as little time on court as possible.
Hopefully they peak at the business end. But that doesn’t mean they don’t give each match and ‘lesser’ opponents their full attention.
Why does Rafa never get WOs. Novak is the King of WOs. He’s been gifted one by Cilic today.
Cilic must have read our posts and agreed. Time to practice for Rome.
He doesnt need the emotional damage that comes with a humiliating loss when he has further improvement to look forward to in Rome and possibly a peak performance and boilver at Roland Garros.
Djokovic is a really bad matchup for Cilic. Cilic would have to be at the absoloute top of his game to beat Djokovic especially on clay so smart move by him withdrawing.
So my instinct is to say that now Novak will have a massive advantage in the SF against Thiem/Federer, as he will be much more fresh and rested, especially if Fed manages to win over Thiem. But on the other hand….
I know that Fed was 29 years old at the time as opposed to 37, but I do seem to recall an instance where Novak got a walkover to face Federer in the SF at a certain big clay tournament, but lost to Federer despite being the fresher and more in-form of the two. 😉
Seriously, though… For the player who gets to walk over, a W/O is pretty much always a good thing when it happens at a Masters tournament. At a major, a W/O has potential to remove the player from any momentum or rhythm they have built, as they then have 4 days between matches. At a Masters, however, there are no days off once you get passed the 1st or 2nd round. So having one day off to recover without necessarily losing your rhythm would be welcome probably 99% of the time. I am picking Thiem to beat Federer, so assuming it’s a Thiem-Djokovic SF, I think Novak’s day of rest should have relatively minimal effect on the outcome of the match, as Thiem is a strapping 25 year old lad. If Fed manages to get through Thiem, I fear for him against a fresher Novak on clay…
Reckon Fed is looking forward to this match. It will give him a good gauge pf where he needs to be.
I think what the match showed is that Fed is pretty much right where he needs to be. If he can serve close to 70% and rest of his game is like it was today, he has a good shot of beating anyone, even on clay. But he needs that 1st serve.
I’ve finally seen some weaknesses in THIS Thiem’s game – his ROS. He’s not quite good in handling big or great serves (vs Opelka and now Fed). His court position when returning serves too – he’s not as quick as Rafa, so standing so far back to return serve isn’t good for him.
Yeah Dominic was going to lose to Riley – had Riley been fresh. But isn’t Doms ROS better on slower clay courts? I don’t remember if Thiem has won Madrid before or he’s even done well here. Andy Murray played well in Madrid – Djokovic and Federer have and Rafa of course. Seems to me Kei got to a final here.
Come on Thiem, at least win this TB!
Thiem was the finalist here twice – in 2017 losing to Rafa, and in 2018 losing to Sasha. I think both times his opponents were more aggressive than him.
Thiem finally took the second set now against Fed, he could’ve won the second set earlier had he taken some of his chances. Fed was serving very well in set one but in set two he was missing some of his first serves hence giving Thiem the chances and Thiem finally took them in the epic TB.
Thanks, Lucky. My memory is getting worse.
I don’t really care who wins this – but I picked Thiem in my bracket because I didn’t think Fed would have anything left at this point in the tournament. He did well to beat Monfils ( I thought Fed would)
Thiem returns serves better with his BH at the Ad court; he tends to overhit the returns with his FH at the deuce court when returning out wide serve.
Djoko is a happy man now, watching these two men fighting hard out there while he can conserve his energy for the next match.
I don’t know about all the resting for Nole. I was hoping he’d get a comfortable win over Cilic and then face Thiem or Fed.
Both playing not so great tennis in the last few games of the match; Fed managed to break back for 4-4 but Thiem is having BPs against Fed now, and what a point to break Fed’s serve now and Thiem is now 5-4 in the third set.
BTW, the Rome draw is out, and Rafa has Thiem in his quarter and Fed in his half of the draw.
Thiem just too strong off the ground in the end. Fed gave him a good match rho.
Yup, Fed was very impressive. Came out with a great game plan, won the first set easily and might well have won the 2nd! He should be happy with his tournament. I’d figured quarters for him before ever seeing the draw but he had to play a LOT better than I thought he would to get there! So he’s also playing Rome? I’m a bit surprised by that.
Ouch! I guess Rafa got his one good draw in Madrid.
Do you think Fed will actually play Rome? I think he got enough preparation here, myself. But maybe three matches aren’t enough for him.
I have Nole losing to Thiem. That win over Fed was good for Thiem’s confidence.
My Madrid bracket is Rafa over Thiem in the end.
Rome bracket out!! 😀
So Thiem wins in the end, what a close match! Fed has done well to make it so close and even has M.P. in set two. I feel had Fed been a bit younger and playing like this, he might win this match. It’s obvious that in the third set when Thiem raised his physical level by hitting as hard as ever, Fed couldn’t keep up, and yet he was able to break back before losing the match.
It’s interesting to see how Djoko match up against this current Thiem.
Did Fed choke at all in those big points in the 2nd set tiebreak, or was it more Thiem being great? Or both?
Either way, pushing Thiem that far on clay is impressive I suppose. Against the big guns on clay, Fed’s only hope is to try to end it quickly, which he almost did. But as soon a match goes the distance, that’s not good for 37 year old Fed. I am impressed, though, that he’s still in as good of shape has he is. But Thiem is definitely coming into his own lately. If he can beat Novak, then he will have beaten all of the Big 3 in only a few weeks. Good to see him coming through big matches more regularly now!
Hard for me to guess how well Novak will do, since I have not watched a single match of his this week. One this is: not sure he’s been challenged. I suspect he’ll need to play better than vs Chardy because apparently Chardy almost took a set off Nole. Surprise me, Nole!
I only saw the 2nd set TB, not the rest of the second yet. But I don’t think Fed choked! He had a great game plan and Thiem had to adjust to it in the 2nd set. Thiem usually returns from far back but he moved up much closer to the baseline making serve and volley much harder. Thiem took it. Fed still looked good at the end of the match to me.
I’m really impressed with Thiem in the last year. Unlike Zverev, Thiem has made massive improvements in his consistency. Aside from AO, he has really shown up to play at most of the big tournaments. What impressed me the most is that he has made such massive improvement on hard courts, which is so important, as 9 of the 14 “big” tournaments are on hard court. It obviously started at RG last year where he finally made the Final, although it was very clear at the time that he was not even close to ready to knock off Rafa at RG. But then he went on to be a just a moment away from making the SF at the US Open. Rafa has been awesome at the US Open in recent years, and Thiem nearly beat him in one of the most epic matches ever. Then to top off his obvious hard court improvement, he beat Fed in the IW Final. And now he is showing that he’s currently the hottest clay courted on tour. I’m anxious to see how he does in Madrid and Rome, but mostly RG. He’s really impressing me his last year.
Thiem’s improvements are still on the slower courts – USO is on slower courts these days. On quicker courts, he’s more vulnerable to big servers (he doesn’t have great ROS imo).
If anything it’s Thiem who choked, when he was having so many more BP chances than Fed, but couldn’t convert most.
This court suits Fed’s style of play, he came out serving well from the get go, no wonder he’s winning the first set against his opponents easily. Had he been five or ten years younger and playing like this, he would’ve beaten this Thiem comfortably.
This match went much as I thought it might. Fed was in control in the 1st set mainly because he served lights out, was very aggressive, and didn’t let Thiem get any rhythm. Fed had his chance to win the match at 8-7 in the TB, went for it on the return and missed by inches. Even in the 3rd set when Thiem was really starting to belt the ball, Fed didn’t give up, and he was playing pretty well until the end. The big difference, imo, is that his serve had dropped off and he wasn’t coming into the net as regularly. Hard to hang with Thiem from the baseline, though Fed didn’t do too badly even in that regard. There is no doubt in my mind that a 25 year old Fed with this racquet would win this match handily.
Well done to Dominic! He wasn’t at his best today, but played well in the big points toward the end. I think he has to be the favorite over Novak. Until the latter shows some return to form, he deserves to be the underdog to Thiem on this surface.
I’m glad to hear that Fed went for it on break point and just missed. Even though it’s not the safest way to play, he can’t play safe against the top guys these days, especially on clay. The match did go just how I thought, although I didn’t think that Fed would come that close to winning without winning. I pray that Thiem isn’t too worn out tomorrow. He’s going to need his highest level to take down a Djokovic who is significantly more well-rested than him. There’s no question that Thiem can win this tournament, but it’s going to be extremely hard. If we assume Rafa makes the Final, that means that Thiem would have to beat The Big 3, back-to-back-to-back. Has that even been ever before?? I know that Nalbandian has beaten the three of them in one tournament, but was it consecutively?