Following a week of 250-point tournaments, the stars are back on court for the second of this year’s three clay-court Masters 1000 events. Rafael Nadal is off to a perfect 10-0 start on the red stuff in 2017, with No. 10 titles in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. He is going for “only” his fifth title in Madrid, where he is joined in strong field by Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Stan Wawrinka, just to name a few. Roger Federer, of course, is still taking a break and will do so at least until the French Open.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,439,350 Euros
Top seed: Andy Murray
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: How’s this for a potential path to the final? Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios, Milos Raonic, and Djokovic. That is what Nadal may have in front of him after the draw was revealed on Friday. And that road could be even tougher in high altitude, where Kyrgios and Raonic should benefit. The fifth-ranked Spaniard will open against either Fognini or Joao Sousa before possibly running into Kyrgios in the third round and Raonic in the quarters. Raonic, though, may have his hands full with David Goffin in the last 16.
Perhaps nobody enjoyed Friday’s draw ceremony more than Djokovic, and that is just what the doctor ordered for the world No. 2 after he split from his entire team—including coach Marian Vajda—earlier in the day. In the softest quarter of the bracket by far, Djokovic awaits what should be a routine opener against Nicolas Almagro or Tommy Robredo and his nearest seeds are Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Kei Nishikori. Both Tsonga and Monfils have played only one match since Indian Wells and Nishikori has not taken the court since Miami.
At the top of draw, Murray could get another shot at Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals. They recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis, with Thiem prevailing 6-2, 3-6, 6-4. Grigor Dimitrov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Richard Gasquet, or Budapest champion Lucas Pouille may have something to say about preventing another Murray-Thiem showdown.
In section two, the pair of first-round bye recipients may not last long in Madrid. Wawrinka’s opener will likely come against an in-form Pablo Carreno Busta, while Marin Cilic awaits either Alexander Zverev or Fernando Verdasco. The semifinal spot from this quarter appears to be totally up for grabs, and other serious contenders include Jack Sock, Tomas Berdych, and Pablo Cuevas.
First-round upset alert: Gilles Simon over (15) Gael Monfils. These two Frenchmen famously—or more like “infamously”—played a 71-ball rally against each other at the 2013 Australian Open. That point did not end well for Monfils and neither has much else when he has been forced to go up against Simon. The head-to-head series stands at 6-1 in favor of Simon, who won that Aussie Open marathon 8-6 in the fifth and also beat Monfils 6-4, 3-6, 6-0 in their only previous clay-court encounter (2011 Hamburg). Monfils had been out since Indian Wells with an Achilles’ injury until he returned in Munich, where he lost his opener in straight sets to Hyeon Chung.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Jack Sock, David Goffin, Pablo Carreno Busta, Alexander Zverev, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Diego Schwartzman
Cold: Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Mischa Zverev, Ivo Karlovic, Tommy Haas, Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis, Bernard Tomic, David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo
Quarterfinal predictions: Dominic Thiem over Andy Murray, Jack Sock over Marin Cilic, Rafael Nadal over David Goffin, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas over Gilles Simon
Semifinals: Thiem over Sock and Nadal over Ramos-Vinolas
Final: Nadal over Thiem
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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
who ya got?
Super tough draw for Rafa, but he’s got the mojo working right now….who can beat him????
Rafa in his current form will easily beat Fog! Nick may as well lose to any of his early rounds opponents, depends how motivated he is to face Rafa…Nole has an easy path, so he is most probable to walk into semis…However, Djokovic is like many a confidence player, the type of player who needs a team of people behind him…Now that he is all by himself he may end up losing early due to the current mess in his box…
So, this tourney will be interesting…
Semis: Nadal over Djokovic 6-4, 7-5, Murray over Thiem in 3.
Final: Nadal over Murray in 2
Murray and Thiem are in the same quarter, so they won’t be meeting in the SF.
Sorry Murray over Wawrinka in 2
Same final as Ricky. Nadal over Thiem
Will make my picks once qualifying is done
Okay …. here’s a take on the Sunday matches at the Madrid Open today http://www.138mph.com/madrid-open-mens-sunday-unfolded/
⚠️ WARNING: CLICKING ON THE ABOVE LINK WILL INSTALL THE DREADED FEDFAWN VIRUS ON YOUR PC OR MOBILE DEVICE!!!! ⚠️
QF:
Murray over Thiem
Wawrinka over Cilic
Kyrgios over Goffin
Djokovic over Ramos-Vinolas
SF:
Wawrinka over Murray
Kyrgios over Djokovic
Final:
Kyrgios over Wawrinka
Benny, I think you will be disappointed with Kygrios.
Imo:
Thiem over Murray/Pouille
Cilic over Stan (or Busta)
Rafa over Raonic ( if Rafa withdraws, then Raonic over Kygrios)
Djoko over ARV
SF:
Cilic over Thiem
Rafa over Djoko (if Rafa is absent, Raonic over Djoko)
Final:
Rafa over Cilic
(Or Cilic over Raonic)!!
Bold I know esp in picking Cilic. Cilic just blows hot and cold, he can lose to A Zverev in their first match at Madrid. I’m just hoping he can do something esp on quicker clay at Madrid (though not wanting him to beat Rafa).
So you still carry a torch for Cilic 😉
Cilic did play well at Istanbul; I was surprised he won, and without losing a set, though his level within a match could be so up and down, almost losing a set to Diego when Cilic was 4-1 up in the second set!
Stan isn’t good on fast clay (he lost easily at TB Ten exho, saying it’s too quick for him). Cilic has to first beat A Zverev, which I think is doable as long as Cilic serves and hits consistently well; I think Zverev may be a little tired, after some long matches at Munich and winning there.
Thiem or Pouille or Murray in the SF, I think those three would battle it out for the SF position so Cilic may have a chance there in the SF.
Of course, knowing how inconsistent Cilic is, he can also lose to A Zverev!
If Rafa withdraws I think Kyrgios will at least make semis. I obviously have him going farther with Rafa staying in but I realize Rafa can win that as well for obvious reasons.
I’m very curious to see how Kyrgios goes. More than any other player at the moment, for him it’s all about getting it together mentally, which he seems to be in the process of doing. His game really has it all: serve, return, consistent groundies, court coverage. He should have beaten Federer in Miami, and I think he’s confident he has the game to beat all of the top players. If he’s decided to fully commit to tennis then it’s only a matter of time, and the time could well be now.
Semis Nadal d Djokovic,Murray d Sock
Final Nadal d Murray
But I’ve a feeling Nadal could get beaten by Kyrgios or Goffin.
I’m giving Murray and Nole the benefit of the doubt…
Interesting section with Zverev.Tall order for him to beat Cilic and Berdych esp.if tired.
it is very hard that rafa wins all 4 tournaments before RG .. I think he earned a break at here , madrid since the draw is bloody hell . Kyrgios is very different and dangerous this year but very cold on clay . Goffin also a tough one , Djokovic will not see SF imo .. but still Rafa will be winning his 5th Madrid Title i guess . QFs ;
Pouille – Thiem
Busta – Cilic
Goffin – Rafa
ARV – Nole
SFs ;
Thiem-Cilic
Rafa-ARV
Final : Rafa – ARV , winner : Rafa .
a little correction:
Final : Rafa – Thiem , winner : Rafa
I got Zverev losing round one to Verdasco lol. I may be the only one. Also I don’t see Murray losing to Pouille. I was thinking of picking that upset at first but if you look at the H2H it doesn’t seem likely at all. Murray’s game just matches up super well with Pouille’s or something because it’s always one way traffic for Andy when those two play.
Depends on how Murray plays. Murray lost to ARV and then Thiem, so it’s also possible that he loses to Pouille.
a pouille who won an ATP in Budapest , with a confidence .. seemed very likely to me .
Yeah I see what you’re saying. I just feel like Pouille has a bit of a mental block against Andy. Like in Dubai they played and Murray won pretty easily even after that epic match with Kohlschreiber. That’s the same reason I went back on Simon over Djokovic. I had that pick but decided to go back on it because Djoker leads the head to head 11-1.
those aren’t particularly bad losses on clay
ARV and Thiem are both playing better on clay than Pouille right now. But I see what you’re sayinh
Saying*
Sock out of Madrid’s singles, lost to Mahut in three sets!
I thought Sock would go further. I really debated over picking him to go deeper. That’s a bummer.
Kyrgios had a rough time against baghdatis. Now we can easily say that nick is not completely ready for a rafa challenge. The hardest match will be between rafa and goffin including the final i guess in the tournament.
Nothing wrong with the pick.Surface suits Sock well and he’s been in form this year.
That socks.