Fellow Spaniards Pablo Carreno Busta and David Ferrer are scheduled for a semifinal showdown on Saturday in Estoril. Big servers Gilles Muller and Kevin Anderson are also aiming for a spot in the title match.
(1) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (4) David Ferrer
It will be an all-Spanish affair when Carreno Busta and Ferrer go head-to-head for the second time in their careers during semifinal action at the Estoril Open on Saturday. Their only previous encounter came three years ago at Wimbledon, where Ferrer got the job done 6-0, 6-7(3), 6-1, 6-1. The story is a much different one in 2017, with Carreno Busta playing the best tennis of his life and Ferrer in the midst of precipitous decline. Ten years his opponent’s junior, Carreno Busta has now reached five semifinals this season (including a final in Rio de Janeiro). The world No. 21 has advanced in Estoril with straight-set victories over fellow Spaniards Tommy Robredo and Nicolas Almagro.
This is already the best tournament of the season for Ferrer, who had been 3-7 in 2017 and had won back-to-back matches at just a single event (Australian Open) prior to his arrival in Estoril. Although the draw has been a favorable one, the 35-year-old’s level looked better than it had in recent months during straight-set defeats of Frederico Ferreira Silva and Ryan Harrison. This, however, may not be a good matchup for Ferrer. Carreno Busta is a younger, faster, more powerful, and more confident version of his countryman at this point in time.
Pick: Carreno Busta in 2
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(3) Gilles Muller vs. Kevin Anderson
Muller and Anderson have never faced each other on clay, which is not a big surprise heading into this somewhat unexpected Estoril semifinal. Both big servers have enjoyed more success throughout their careers on hard courts and grass, surfaces on which they have combined to square off four times. The head-to-head series stands at an even 2-2, with Muller taking their only encounter since 2011 via a 6-2, 6-3 decision at the 2015 Tokyo event.
Anderson has missed a significant chunk of time over the past couple of seasons due to various injuries and he is just now starting to pick up the pace. The 66th-ranked South African advanced to the Barcelona third round last week and so far in Estoril he has defeated Salvatore Caruso, Joao Domingues, and Richard Gasquet–the latter in a third-set tiebreaker. Following a first-round bye as the No. 3 seed, Muller eased past Pedro Sousa and recovered from a set and 2-0 deficit to beat Taro Daniel 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 on Friday. The 28th-ranked Luxembourgian owns as many ATP clay-court wins this season (three) as he compiled in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 combined. His slice-heavy, frequent serve-and-volley style is less conducive to the slow stuff than Anderson’s heavy-hitting baseline game, so this showdown could signal the end of Muller’s run.
Pick: Anderson in 3
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Muller in three PCB in two