Madrid final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

May 14, 2017 Ricky Match previews 183

Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers and for the second time in a clay-court final this season when they battle for the Mutua Madrid Open title on Sunday.

Nadal is leading the head-to-head series 3-1 (all on clay) after beating Thiem 6-4, 6-1 just two weeks ago to lift the Barcelona trophy. The Austrian’s lone victory came via a 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(4) decision in the 2016 Buenos Aires semis, while Nadal also cruised to straight-set wins in 2014 (French Open) and 2016 (Monte-Carlo).

These are the two best clay-courters in the sport right now, so a high-quality contest should be in the cards. The question is if Thiem can sustain a high enough level for two full sets, and perhaps three, which is something he was unable to do in a Barcelona showdown that took a drastic turn from competitive to one-sided in a hurry. The good news for Madrid’s eighth seed is that he has conserved energy in the form of three routine matches to offset his 4-6, 6-4, 7-6(9) thriller against Grigor Dimitrov in which he saved five match points. Thiem has otherwise coasted past Jared Donaldson, Borna Coric, and Pablo Cuevas.

Like the world No. 9, Nadal endured one scare en route to championship Sunday. The fifth-ranked Spaniard got his three-setter out of the way early, as he outlasted Fabio Fognini 7-6(3), 3-6, 6-4 and then rolled over Nick Kyrgios, David Goffin, and second-seeded Novak Djokovic. Nadal had lost seven straight matches and 15 consecutive sets in that head-to-head series before defeating Djokovic 6-2, 6-4 on Saturday afternoon.

“If I’m at my best and he’s at his best on clay, he’s probably the better player,” Thiem admitted. “If you see his records on this surface, it’s just amazing. But tomorrow is a new day. I will try to improve the things I didn’t do that [well] in Barcelona and then we will see what happens…. I think he played a very good match in Barcelona. I played well also.”

And therein lies the problem. When Nadal is at his best on the red stuff, as he has been for approximately nine of the last 12 years, it hardly matters what is going on across the net. Even if Thiem plays well, he will struggle to penetrate Nadal’s defense–especially on clay and from his preferred positioning so far behind his own baseline.

Expect something similar to their Rome tilt, with Thiem contending for a while before the weight of having to hit too many low-percentage shots during tough baseline rallies becomes too great.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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183 Comments on Madrid final preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Thiem

  7. The final will be a real test of Thiem’s fitness and stamina. He won his SF in straight sets but the match went on to way past midnight and he looked exhausted after some of the extended rallies. Luckily for him his serve held up winning him a lot of free points.

    Hope he has sufficient in the tank to make it an interesting final – unlike their last meeting when he buckled under the pressure.

    Rafa in 2

    Reply

  9. 6pm start gives enough rest to Thiem. He is young and fit, playing late is not an issue. Rafa OTOH had mentally demanding match vs Nole and I hope he is focused and mentally strong in the finals not to let Thiem take a set of him! This should be over in 2 with one break in each set!

    Both players have Rome to deal with no need to go through a triller here…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  15. Rafa looks like having low energy level. I don’t have good feeling about this match. Thiem will be hitting as hard as possible to blow Rafa off the court.

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    • I agree. Rafa doesn’t have the intensity he had yesterday. He looks flat. Thiem has come out strong and is just outplaying Rafa right now. Maybe it took too much out of Rafa to beat Novak.

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  16. Rafa serves poorly, returns poorly so far. It looks like another Foggy match on the card. Thiem isn’t serving that great but Rafa can’t capitalize because he’s returning poorly!

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    • Even though that drop shot worked, I don’t love it. But at least he’s trying to change up the patterns.

      Reply

      • At least Rafa is thinking out there. He’s trying to disrupt Thiem who is content to power his shots from the back of the court.

        I have to believe that Rafa will get himself going and use the right tactics.

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  17. Rafa, please don’t stay at the baseline to rally with Thiem; he’s hitting so hard you can’t out rally him! Come forward, make him run! Please serves and returns properly, Rafa!!

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  18. I feared Rafa would come out mentally spent…he is having slow start, serving poorly, no energy…hope this changes soon otherwise Rafa loses this set…

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    • Okay that time the drop shot worked. Rafa is also making Thiem run. Rafa is problem solving. Good hold to consolidate the break.

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  30. I think Thiem can’t keep up with rafa mentally for long….and rafa will jump in as soon as he can smell the chance..

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  31. Rafa knows he can’t outhit Thiem and so he’s using tactical plays to beat him. He makes Thiem runs for drop shots, good, make him runs and tires him. Next, think of how to return Thiem’s big serves effectively!

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    • Matches can turn on moments like this you cannot let someone off the hook like that. All those set points wasted.

      Reply

  36. Incredible serving by Thiem, making all first serves to hold, can’t blame Rafa for not breaking serve. I hope Rafa breaks Thiem now to win the set!

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  41. phewwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!! won the set despite not playing anywhere near his best. Thiem is DAMN tough! very gruelling set.

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    • MA,

      Yes I am coming out from behind the sofa! That was too close for comfort!

      I am a wreck! Than God Rafa won!

      Reply

  43. Yes!! Yes!! Rafa takes the TB, 10-8!!

    It’s vintage Rafa saving those set points! Rafa really has to serve well from now on and not let Thiem break him again. Thiem’s serve is really a weapon even on clay, his FH too, with its topspin as good as Rafa’s.

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  46. I would suggest if Rafa wins Madrid, he should skip Rome. He goes undefeated and well rested. No point in going Roland Garros exhausted .

    Anyway there is a reasonable chance that he could lose at Rome due to exhaustion. Winning at Rome does not guarantee FO. Its a lose-lose situation to play Rome.

    If he is rested, given the wins under his belt, he would be very very tough to beat at FO.

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  47. Very poor quality. Tough to watch. Rafa seems so nervous. He better play more freely. Nervous 2nd set against Novak too?

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  48. I must say Thiem is playing very well but Rafa’s serve is really off must part of the match. I think it all comes now to nerve for Rafa, so much at stake – no. 30 Masters title and no.4 ranking.

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  52. Thiem looked the more experienced player in this match!

    Rafa playing from well behind the baseline and rallying with Thiem, though he breaks serve in game one second set, I think that’s not a wise way to win the match. Maybe Rafa trying to prove he can out rally Thiem?

    Reply

  54. Rafa needed his best to beat Novak. Now he has to battle this young guy who is hungry and playing great.

    Reply

  57. I hope Rafa continues to hold if he can’t break Thiem’s serve again. Rafa really couldn’t get a hold on how to return Thiem’s big serve effectively, that’s quite worrying and annoying. He normally can handle big servers on clay quite well.

    Reply

    • Easy hold for Thiem. So much for a second break. Now Rafa has to hold serve again.

      Thiem is not going to let up. He will fight all the way.

      Reply

  59. Rafa, please keep holding serve. Thiem is an excellent clay court player. He has got all the tools to win big titles on this surface once the big four are no longer there. These back to back finals with Rafa will help him a lot no matter what the outcome of today’s one.

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  61. Thiem’s slice, drops shots have a lot of room for improvement. He will need that going forward. Rafa is a more well-rounded and that helps the spaniard.

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  63. Chance squandered! Rafa takes a good two sets of tennis and still could only break serves once, despite all the BPs! Quite un-Rafalike.

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    • Reminds me of the match with Dimi. Fighting off match points.

      Now I have to bite my nails as Rafa serves for the match.

      Reply

  68. Thiem is still trying his best. His forehand winner at deuce was LOADED with topspin. Solid hold from thiem.

    Rafa, please hold!!

    Reply

  69. Rafa simply just has too much respect for Thiem! Thiem is serving well no doubt, but Rafa is rather passive during those BP chances.

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  80. So nervy this last game, Rafa finally takes it after four championship points!

    Rafa is truly very nervous, couldn’t string two good enough serves to take the match after so many tries until finally!

    Credit to Thiem for playing very well and pushing Rafa all the way, he’s not even nervous it seems!

    Reply

    • yeah but he had no hesitation when facing those break points. He was the aggressor and had plenty of belief he could do it. That’s what confidence, titles and winnng streaks do for you! RAFA IS THE BEST.

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    • But he managed to win anyway. That is the difference now. It would have cost him the match in the past.

      He won! That is what is important! Look st who Rafa had to play to win this! He deserves credit for getting through a really tough draw. Even a sub par Novak is not easy to beat.

      Fog, Nik, Goffin, Novak and Thiem!

      That is impressive!

      Reply

  86. for the French Open. If he gets an opponent on a hot streak, it might be trouble some. He can play far far better than what he did today.
    The Goffin match he was in God mode.

    Reply

    • Rsda will not always be at his best. It took his best to beat Novak. Thiem and Goffin are both playing great tennis right now.

      Rafa cannot always be in God mode.

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  87. I knew this match would not be easy and so I didn’t predict anything for Rafa. After seeing how close that first set was at Barcelona final, I knew Rafa would be in for a hard day at work, but I didn’t expect Rafa to serve so poorly, by his current standard.

    Thiem has a big serve and big topspin FH, maybe that’s why Rafa was too afraid to hit to Thiem’s FH and concentrates on attacking Thiem’s SHBH, sometimes too much and it backfired. I do think Rafa knows how dangerous Thiem can be and so has shown him much respect; had Rafa served better he would make life easier a little bit for himself.

    Anyway, congrats to Rafa, for tying with Djoko at 30 Masters titles each; and, getting to no.4 in the rankings and no.1 in the race. Well done Rafa, great rewards for your great efforts.

    Reply

  88. Thiem looks such a sweet boy! I hope he’ll do well in future, he seems to have a pleasant demeanor, I wish him well going forward!

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  89. The use of drop shots was totally remarkable!

    Rafa could have played more aggressively but he beat a very tough opponent in straight sets!

    I want Rafa to rest now but I know he’ll play Rome.

    I can only wish him best of luck and hope he doesn’t play gruelling matches there. I would hate to see him lose at Rome though

    Reply

  90. Rafa serve was unusually off today. I am not worried about his game at all though. Just wishing he is fresh at the French.

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    • Now I am conflicted about Rafa playing at Rome. He could face Thiem in the quarterfinals. Then Novak again in the semis. He could lose and end his winning streak.

      Reply

      • Not to worry, Thiem will also be tired and may lose to Cuevas there in R2, not that Cuevas is an easy opponent though.

        I do feel Rafa is exceptionally nervous in this final because 1) the no.4 ranking is within reach, 2) no.30 Masters title is within reach too; and 3) he’s playing on home ground and in front of his home crowd, certainly he doesn’t want to disappoint them.

        Now that he has achieved all those, I think he’ll be more relaxed getting to Rome. I do feel he will be playing more freely there. There are still jobs to be done and players to beat, but with three titles in the bag now and beating some quality opponents along the way, he should be playing with more calm, and hopefully with more aggression to shorten match time on court.

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      • But yeah, if Rafa is feeling tired then he should skip Rome. He has played and won 15 matches on clay, good enough match play to prepare for the FO. He has already achieved the goal of getting the no.4 seeding at the FO, getting his record equaling Masters title and beating Djoko and some quality players to achieve that.

        He can afford not to play at Rome, rest and be ready for the FO. I hope he and his team can make some rational decisions so as not to jeopardize his chances at the FO. He doesn’t need the points or the title at Rome.

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    • MA,

      Yes, another hug! Love it! But that was hard to watch!

      Rafa us now tied with Novak with 30 Masters titles and won his 5th Madrid and is #4!

      Reply

      • I know Nny!!…but it’s worth like a thousand diamond in the end right?…I’m crying again today!!..LOL!Women!!

        Reply

        • Now I am feeling like he should skip Rome. I did not expect him to win Madrid. He has another tough draw in Rome.

          Maybe nuwcge needs to take a break. But I have a feeling he will play. Thiem in the quarterfinals and then Novak again in the semis.

          Reply

          • But Rafa is an OCD sufferer…he’s a creature of habit..he won’t break his routine easily..he will keep doing what he’s always doing..keep in line of everything…but in doing so,he will jeopardize his health and body….i am worried..

          • Yeah augusta!..U could be right!!..i mean,when i woke up yesterday..my ears felt strange..and there’s a green liquid ooze from it!!Ewww!!…yuck!!…Is it possible that i got brainwashed by…by…urgh!!..don’t want to think about it!!!

  92. No point in playing Rome. Just go to RG nice and fresh and unbeaten. Anyday Rafa will swap a Rome title by faring better and be fresh for rest of season.

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  94. Looks like, He won’t skip Rome . It is a great time to be 100% fit and fresh for #4 Ranking in bag by just going to RG and skip Rome.

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  95. Rafa may skip Rome! Remember Rafa and Fed had that long Rome final in 2006 and they both skipped Hamburg in the following week. Rafa can afford to skip a Masters or two without facing any penalty, so I really hope Rafa and his team think and act wisely. He’s 30 almost 31, no longer that 20 year old kid.

    In 2013 he did play all four events before the FO and reaching all finals and winning all but one. However, he skipped Miami that year, and had played fewer matches before the clay season – 18 compared to 24 this season. He was four years younger back then.

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  96. I doubt Rafa will skip rome. ..he will play there and may lose and hopefully not dent his confidence

    However madrid win was awesome beating foginini kyrgios goffin djoko thiem .

    The win was way tougher than montecarlo and Barcelona and should aid his confidence

    Fear is if he is overplaying ..no repeat of 2009 again

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  98. Y’all are nuts and or don’t know Rafa if you think he’s taking two weeks off and skipping Rome.

    Not Rafa’s style.

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  99. Rafa did start slow in this mach because he was mentally exhausted after battling Nole….but in the same time Rafa came out so strong mentally, he played the key points amazingly well, he used his tennis brain to hit beautiful winners and he was the gutsy warrior out there! I am still under impression how great Rafa was to get the break early in the second set and to fight so hard to counterattack the bombshell from Thiem! Genius Rafa! One has to give credit to Dominik for playing so well! And he could not even get a set from Rafa, that is how good Rafa was!

    I did not think Rafa looked physically tired at all in this match and as the match progressed Thiem was the one who could not sustain the rallies…shows how great physically Rafa is prepared for grueling matches…cudos to Rafa and his team!

    I don’t know how much longer Rafa can sustain this level without feeling exhausted but what I know is that Rafa feeds himself with victories, his confidence grows fast and he is becoming ruthless which is exactly what he needs for the RG title!

    I don’t think skipping Rome is a bad idea but I feel Rafa would not want to do that! If he decides to play I wish him luck, I wish him less grueling matches and I wish him to be strong and healthy! All the way for the Rome title!

    Three down, two to go! Vamos Rafa!

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    • We have zero control over what Rafa does. It’s up to him and his team. We also know that winning makes Rafa better. We can see what this winning streak and titles have done for his confidence. He just feeds off it and gets better and better.

      I have to trust that Rafa and his team will do what is best. I can’t really see him taking two weeks off until RG. But I worry about him and over playing before RG.

      Rafa wants that 10th title. So I believe he will do what he feels is best to get it.

      Seeing how tough Rafa was mentally in his last few matches, makes me realize how far he has come. He’s been tested and passed every single time.

      Reply

    • MA,

      Well my darling seems to have some doubts himself. It was interesting to read what he said about the decision to play Rome last year. He did get the wrist checked out and they said he was okay to play. But now he thinks that was not a good decision. I think it sounds like Rafa has thought about the pros and cons and feels like he wants to play. I was concerned to hear that he is sore and walking a bit funny. I always worry about him. But he seems to think it’s normal after the tough matches he had. I liked reading his thoughts about the final. So he was feeling pressure right from the beginning. I could sense it. He also talked about why it’s hard to break Thiem in those conditions.

      Rafa has a great tennis brain and analyzes his matches with such clarity.

      Thanks as always for a great read!
      ?♥️

      Reply

      • Hey Nny!!…How’re u feel this evening?Still happy and feeling like you’re flying through the air?Hohohohoho!!…

        Bout Rafa….mama mia!!..see!last year they thought it’s okay to play Rome and then he regret it…now,it could be the same thing…urgh!!There’s no use to think about this further Nny…i just wish [on my part] that he will lost early..and take some rest and make a good prep for RG…but,i’m still picking him in my Bracket!!Bwahahaha!!….oh,Nny!..i’ve already gave this to u yesterday but i don’t think u notice it….here’s your darling and his gift…

        https://www.instagram.com/p/BT9axzGhg1I/

        Reply

        • Love that photo! Rafa got a painting of himself!

          We just have to trust in Rafa to make the right decision. It’s hard for him not to play when he’s doing so well. Last year he already had the wrist problem. I guess there is no site way to know what to do.

          Maybe he won’t go that deep. I don’t know. But the conditions are better in Rome. I assume Rafa will want a Wednesday start again.

          He did say he’s tired and sore. I will always worry about him. I know you will, too. We must have to hope that everything works out for the best.

          Reply

          • Nny…U know i am a positive kind of person right?But…his pattern for the last 4,5 years..gave all out in clay season..and then come wimby..injury struck and go out early and take a long lay off once again[1,2,3 months]…i just wanna see the different approach this year onward..he’s aware that he’s old but very reluctant to change his routine..if he’s injured again,it’s going to be another long rest because his age won’t allow him to recover fast like when he’s still young….

            But,oh..well like u and other’s said…he’s the one who will decide everything…

          • Mira, Rafa is in better physical conditions now, and he’s playing shorter points tennis. He will be fine at the FO and after.

            He knows what to do, after so much sufferings, I’m sure he doesn’t want to stop and start all over again.

            What Rafa has to do is to calm his nerve, we saw him spending unnecessarily longer time on the court because he was bothered by his nerve. I do believe after achieving what he has achieved so far this clay season, he will be calmer now at Rome. The FO will be a big test, but over BO5, I think he has time to overcome his nerve and steadies himself during his matches; if he wins the FO, then I do believe he would have finally put all demons to rest.

          • Oh Lucky!..If you’re right i will treat u to a dinner for a month!!..hehehe…Yeah!!!Let’s hope!!

  101. Good to hear that Rafa will be calm and more relaxed playing at Rome after what he has already achieved at Madrid. I hope he wins his matches quickly like in MC or Barcelona. The conditions at Madrid was tough for everyone, so Rafa had to spend more time on the court.

    I hope Rafa beats all his opponents, whoever they are, to win again in Rome and has enough energy for the big trophy at RG. Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  102. The Juggernaut springs back to life again and start collecting silverwares. However, the more he is winning the more his fans deteriorate their health because it is truly energy zapping by just watching him play. No Rafan ever seated in a chair comfortably while watching as they do the ump-ing and eke-ing in unison every time he hit the ball and as exhausted as him when the match is over LOL.

    Reply

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