Madrid final preview and prediction: Rublev vs. Auger-Aliassime

Tennis may have been a predictable sport throughout the Big 3 era on the ATP Tour, but in most circumstances you never know exactly what you are going to get.

Due to both injuries and a few significant upsets, the Mutua Madrid Open has had all kinds of surprises up its sleeve. When the dust finally settles on this fortnight, either Andrey Rublev or Felix Auger-Aliassime will be standing with the winner’s trophy.

Sunday’s final is an especially surprising matchup given the plights of the two competitors heading into Madrid. Rublev had been on a four-match losing streak, picking up only one win (against Andy Murray at the Indian Wells Masters) in his last six outings. Auger-Aliassime was just 11-10 for the season and had won multiple matches in only one of his previous seven events.

Both players seemingly needed some luck to go there way, and that is exactly what has transpired for Auger-Aliassime in Madrid. The 35th-ranked Canadian has completed a mere three matches, ousting Yoshihito Nishioka and Adrian Mannarino in the first two rounds before upsetting Casper Ruud 6-4, 7-5 in the last 16. Auger-Aliassime also got a second-set retirement from Jakub Mensik, a walkover from Jannik Sinner, and a first-set retirement from Jiri Lehecka.

Rublev has not benefited from any retirements or walkovers, but it is fair to say that he has also enjoyed a favorable draw. The world No. 8 faced just one opponent seeded better than 12th en route to the championship match while defeating Facundo Bagnis, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Tallon Griekspoor, Carlos Alcaraz, and Taylor Fritz. Although Alcaraz was less than 100 percent in their quarterfinal contest, Rublev deserves all the credit for being in awesome form from start to finish in this tournament.

This will be the sixth meeting between Rublev and Auger-Aliassime. The head-to-head series stands at 4-1 in favor of the Russian, who is 1-0 this season (won 3-6, 7-6(6), 7-5 in Rotterdam) and 1-0 on clay (won 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-3) at the 2018 Umag event).

It’s also worth noting that Rublev is already a Masters 1000 champion (Monte-Carlo in 2023), whereas Auger-Aliassime has never played in a Masters 1000 final.

Rublev has been the best player this entire fortnight, is experienced on this stage, and has seized the upper hand in this particular matchup more often that not. He should have the edge on Sunday.

Pick: Rublev in 2