Madrid R1 previews and predictions: Carreno Busta vs. Coric, Tsitsipas vs. Donskoy

Stefanos Tsitsipas will try to keep his hot streak going when he takes the court against Evgeny Donskoy on Tuesday in Madrid. First-round action is also wrapping up with a showdown between Pablo Carreno Busta and Borna Coric.

(9) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Borna Coric

Carreno Busta and Coric will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they clash in round one of the Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday. They have split two previous hard-court encounters; Carreno Busta cruised 6-4, 6-3 at the 2015 Auckland event long before Coric survived a 5-7, 6-2, 7-6(8) thriller earlier this season in Doha. The 11th-ranked Spaniard’s 2018 campaign has since picked up steam with a fourth-round performance in Indian Wells and consecutive semifinal appearances in Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril.

At No. 35 in the world and with quarterfinal points to defend in Madrid, Coric could really use a big week as he bids for a seed at the French Open. The 21-year-old Croat caught fire in Indian Wells (semifinals) and Miami (quarterfinals), but he has since suffered losses to Mikhail Kukushkin (on clay and at home in Croatia) and to Novak Djokovic (Monte-Carlo). Based on current form, home-court advantage, and the surface, Carreno Busta should have the edge in this one.

Pick: Carreno Busta in 2

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(Q) Evgeny Donskoy vs. (WC) Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas’ season was already a good one even before this clay-court swing, with quarterfinal performances in both Doha and Dubai. But the 19-year-old Greek has taken things to a whole different level on the slow stuff, as his breakout spring already includes a second-round performance in Monte-Carlo as a qualifier, a runner-up finish in Barcelona (lost to Rafael Nadal), and a semifinal showing in Estoril. Fourteen of his 18 career ATP-level match wins have come in 2018, propelling him to a best-ever ranking of No. 40 in the world.

Up first for Tsitsipas in Madrid is a first-ever meeting with Donskoy, who has already done well to qualify for the main draw–a feat he accomplished by beating Stefano Travaglia and Pierre-Hugues Herbert (the latter in a third-set tiebreaker). The 90th-ranked Russian is a decent 8-10 at the ATP level this year, but his clay-court swing features nothing more than a 2-2 record on the Challenger circuit with setbacks against opponents ranked 130th (Calvin Hemery) and 336th (Yibing Wu). This should be one-way traffic for a red-hot Tsitsipas.

Pick: Tsitsipas in 2

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11 Comments on Madrid R1 previews and predictions: Carreno Busta vs. Coric, Tsitsipas vs. Donskoy

  1. Seems like yesterday ‘ we’ were picking the same two to win… and they both lost.
    Not this time, though , both win in two.

  2. Yeah wrong again!

    Cant pick Tsitsipas as the boy has already played for three consecutive weeks before coming to Madrid. He losing early here may be good for him, just rest and recovers and prepares for the FO. With his ranking now, I think he can enter the main draw right away. I feel he can do well at this coming FO; he has a good game on clay, moves well, has the right attitude and fights till the end.

    Who knows, he may advance further than A Zverev at the FO!.

    • Yeah he will easily be in the main draw. He could be a seed if he made a deep run at Rome or something. Not likely though

  3. What happens to PCB? Is he suffering from injury or something? Hes playing very poorly this clay season so far, He will drop many points this clay season and hes about to lose to Coric now.

  4. Donskoy didn’t make it past the quarters in his last three tournaments and they were ALL CHALLENGERS. Tsitsipas was a sensible pick. No matter how much tennis he’s played, this is still a major upset, especially on clay.

  5. I know Donskoy can cause upsets, not the first time. Tsitsipas looked half dead to me in his SF match at Estoril, was helped only by his big serve. It seems that when he’s tired he just stayed at the baseline to rally instead of coming forward to finish the point ASAP, a bad habit imo, not unlike Rafa.

    • Good point. Tsitsipas should probably rest up and just train until the French Open. He’s played enough very good clay court tennis to head into RG with a lot of confidence.

  6. I like Tsitsipas among the youngsters over Shapo and Sasha Zverev. The three of them may form great rivalries in future, they’re about the same age, one or two years different only, of course Sasha is well ahead now.

    Tsitsipas behaves very well, rarely loses patience; he may argue about some line calls but would just get on with it when the umpire has/had his final say. He doesn’t have the fiery temper of Shapo or Sasha, both of them would throw or attempt to throw their racket when in frustration.

  7. You are spot on Lucky. As usual.
    Zev junior can get very lippy at times – bordering on arrogance. I’m not all that wild about Shapo who can be sullen at times. Tsitsipas is the model of good behaviour and has the same impeccable manners as Rafa.

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