Lyon and Geneva preview and predictions

By the standards of tournaments immediately preceding Grand Slams, Lyon and Geneva—just as they did last year—boast impressive player fields. You can always count on Dominic Thiem to turn up no matter the circumstances, and that is exactly what he is doing this week. The eighth-ranked Austrian headlines the Lyon draw along with John Isner, Jack Sock, Hyeon Chung, and Gael Monfils. In Geneva, meanwhile, Switzerland’s own Stan Wawrinka is joined by Sam Querrey, Fabio Fognini, and David Ferrer.

Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon

Where: Lyon, France
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: 501,345 Euros

Top seed: Dominic Thiem
2017 champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (not playing)

Draw analysis: Thiem has overworked himself throughout his career, but his participation in this particular 250-point tournament actually makes some sense. Aside from a Madrid upset of Rafael Nadal, the 24-year-old has underwhelmed on clay and therefore has not played too many matches. Additional confidence can be had prior to Roland Garros, and Thiem should be able to acquire some in Lyon. Sock and Joao Sousa are his most dangerous opposition in the top half of the draw, but the No. 1 seed cannot meet either one until the semifinals. Thiem’s potential second-rounder against Roberto Carballes Baena, however, could at least provide some intrigue.

Anything could happen on the other side. Isner has not done much on clay since capturing the biggest title of his career in Miami, Chung is struggling with both form and physical problems, and Monfils at the moment is a shadow of his former self. John Millman and Maximilian Marterer are among those who could take advantage.

First-round upset alert: Maximilian Marterer over (6) Gael Monfils. As usual, Monfils has been dealing with various injuries. The 39th-ranked Frenchman has played only four matches since Indian Wells and he is a modest 9-9 since begging the season with a title in Doha. Marterer, on the other hand, has started to make a name for himself by earning the first 10 ATP-level victories of his career this season. The 22-year-old German recently advanced to the Munich semifinals.

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Hot: Joao Sousa, Roberto Carballes Baena, Dusan Lajovic, Maximilian Marterer, Cameron Norrie

Cold: Jack Sock, Gael Monfils, Gilles Simon

Semifinal predictions: Dominic Thiem over Joao Sousa and Maximilian Marterer over John Millman

Final: Thiem over Marterer

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Banque Eric Sturdza Geneva Open

Where: Geneva, Switzerland
Surface: Clay
Points: 250
Prize money: 501,345 Euros

Top seed: Sam Querrey
Defending champion: Stan Wawrinka

Draw analysis: When Fognini is arguably the most reliable player with a first-round bye, you know the title is completely up for grabs. Querrey has not won a match since the Miami second round, Wawrinka’s 2018 comeback has been a thorough disappointment, and Ferrer is grand total of 0-1 in clay-court tournaments this spring. Fognini, on the other hand, ended a three-match losing streak by advancing to the Rome quarterfinals and taking a set off Nadal.

Wawrinka’s section is by far the toughest, as it includes a trio of talented Americans—Jared Donaldson, Frances Tiafoe, and Ryan Harrison. The winner of a first-round showdown between Tiafoe and Harrison will run into either Albert Ramos-Vinolas or Marton Fucsovics, while Wawrinka awaits either Donaldson or Denis Istomin. Querrey could be challenged early at the top of the bracket by Guido Pella and fellow American Steve Johnson. Fognini has the friendliest draw of the four, while Ferrer may have a tough opener on his hands against either Ivo Karlovic or Peter Gojowyczk.

First-round upset alert: Mirza Basic over (8) Mischa Zverev. Their only previous encounter came five years ago on grass, with Zverev unsurprisingly getting the job done 7-6(5), 6-3 in Halle. This time around the German does not have home-court advantage, is playing on clay, and is facing an opponent who is now 26 years old instead of 21. Advantage: Basic. Although the Bosnian is not exactly a world-beater on the red stuff, this is by far Zverev’s worst surface.

Hot: Frances Tiafoe, Peter Gojowyczk

Cold: Sam Querrey, Stan Wawrinka, David Ferrer, Mischa Zverev, Marcos Baghdatis, Andreas Haider-Maurer

Semifinal predictions: Albert Ramos-Vinolas over Guido Pella and David Ferrer over Tennys Sandgren

Final: Ramos-Vinolas over Ferrer

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Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!