London semifinals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Goffin

The year-end championship was Roger Federer’s personal playground from 2003 to 2011, when he captured the title six times. Now the stomping grounds once again appear to be his as the 2017 event heads into semifinal Saturday.

Federer is 16-0 lifetime against the other three remaining players at the Word Tour Finals, including 6-0 at the expense of upcoming opponent David Goffin. The Belgian has tried and failed against his idol four times on hard courts–and often in less than competitive fashion–since they first squared off in a memorable contest at the 2012 French Open. Goffin stole the first set of that showdown, but he is 1-14 in his last 15 sets against Federer. They most recently faced each other a few weeks ago in Basel, where the Swiss cruised 6-1, 6-2 on his eventual way to the title.

Nobody has been able to beat Federer this fall, a stretch that has seen him recover from a back issue that plagued his U.S. Open–in which he suffered a quarterfinal loss to Juan Martin Del Potro. The world No. 2 is 13-0 in his last three tournaments with titles in Shanghai and Basel to go along with victories this week over Jack Sock, Alexander Zverev, and Marin Cilic. All three round-robin foes were competitive, but Federer still improved to 55-12 for his illustrious World Tour Finals career and his hopes for a seventh title are very much alive.

Even though Goffin has not been 100 percent physically since a freak ankle injury at Roland Garros, he has managed to produce an impressive last three months. The world No. 8 reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open and owns a 19-6 record this fall with back-to-back titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo. Goffin opened in London with a 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-4 upset of Rafael Nadal, got blown out by Grigor Dimitrov 6-0, 6-2, and then beat Dominic Thiem 6-4, 6-1 in a virtual quarterfinal clash on Friday.

“I’ve never found a key to beat Roger,” captain obvious commented. “Honestly, I don’t know what to do tomorrow. But I’m going to try something…something different; something that I’ve never done in the past. I will try to do my best to play a better match than in Basel, for sure. In Basel, it was not easy. He played well. He didn’t miss. He was really aggressive, as always. He returned so well…. I hope that tomorrow he’s not going to play the same match.”

That hope is slim, because Federer is in fine form right now and this–as Goffin pointed out–is his best surface along with grass. The 19-time major champion has done no wrong indoors so far this fall, and there is no reason to think he will run into any trouble on Saturday.

Pick: Federer in 2

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123 Comments on London semifinals preview and prediction: Federer vs. Goffin

  1. It is so funny to me that Fed and Rafa have been at the top of the game for so long now that they regularly play against guys who are so much younger that they actually “idolized” Fedal when they were growing up! In most sports, when a generation comes in who grew up idolizing players who are still active, those older idols are usually past their prime, and are no longer a factor at the top of their respective games. Fedal have completely turned that notion on its head- and I think it’s awesome. 🙂

  2. unexciting and uncompetitive semi final match most likely, disappointing for tennis in a way. Yet would be a joy for Fed fans, Fed in two no more than 8 games.

  3. to be honest, I’m a bit worried. I know the history favours Fed against Goffin. But any series at some point ends. Plus Goffin said he will try something new, he has nothing to lose. I really want Fed to win this title. This is the only way he could become no.1 at the beginning of this winter.

    • Don’t worry Eugene!…If it’s meant to Rog,then he will win…if not,it is not meant for him…it’s for someone else…It’s as simple as that Eugene..

      • True Mira. That’s an easier approach. Even when things go wrong, you don’t let them control you. I mean tennis is great, but is not everything…

          • Hey amy!…Good afternoon to u!!…Are u okay today??Hope all is well with u or your house amy!…

            Goff to bagel Fed??Ohhohohohoho!!…More likely fed to bagel Goff amy!…So far,i’m not impressed much with Goff’s game…and to beat Fed,he have to up his level 150% more…very likely too that he will suffered mental block…But,as we know,anything could happen in tennis..right amy??But i think Roger will prevail in 2..

          • Managed not to electrocute myself this time mira!!!
            I am very unimpressed with goffin and was being sarcastic when I said I thought goffin fed would be fun as unless fed is really playing poorly it’s likely to be a blowout.
            Goffin is so lacking in aggression.. Compare him to how Simon who is even smaller used to attack the ball and construct points running around like a terrier and yapping at the other player’s heels!!
            Who do you think will win in dimi sock and who do you want to win?!

          • Hey back amy!!….hahahaha!…oh!Thank God for that amy!…U be careful next time okay?Accident can happen when we least expect it…
            About Goff…heh heh heh…i thought u’re serious when u said he’s going to bagel Fed this evening…It’s a strange tournament this year right amy?I mean,seen Thiem & Goff played like they’re not in the Top 10,with such a poor display..like they’re not belong to be there…But,yeah..it is what it is…
            About Dimi/Sock…I think Dimi will win,even tho i can’t warm to him but i think he’s better than Sock…he’s so good atm…U amy?

          • Sorry mira! I have the very British SOH where you say one thing and mean the opposite!
            R u watching? Fed has already had 4 break points!

          • Dimi is the fave but he hasn’t really been tested and is a player who often flatters to deceive.. Sock has the biggest weapon with his forehand but the way he endlessly slices the backhand makes me nervous!

          • Hehe..don’t be sorry amy!!..I’m very okay with your SOH!Don’t hesitate to be SOH again next time okay?
            Btw…I want to see the match so bad amy!But my stupid TV made a LIVE on MCI vs Leicester…If i want to see it..i have to wait at 2 am for delayed telecast!Urgh!![kicking my cow’s a@# now!!]…

          • Oh!That’s alright amy!…Thank u for your sympathy tho…yeah,from the way Rogernatics act like crazy on another thread,i guess our prediction might be right amy!…
            Bout rc…she don’t respond to me on FB..so,i guess whether she’s got trouble with her computer or she wants to be alone atm…

    • Why are you worried? Fed already has six WTFs, not winning this doesn’t make any difference to him. I’ll rather Dimi or Goffin gets it, when Rafa couldn’t. They don’t have any whilst Fed has six.

      • Ummmm because Fed is his favorite player? Just because Fed has accomplished so much doesn’t mean you root for others to take him down when he’s your favorite. That’s like if I wanted someone else to win this event at the start of the tourney because Roger has already won it six times. I wanted seven!! 😂

  4. Goffin needs to bring variations on his game if he wants to put Federer under pressure. The problem is that it isn’t the way he knows how to play. He hits clean, not really any variations in spins, backhand almost never sliced. However,he angles very well though. That could help him but keeping the ball constantly so close from the lines it’s very difficult.
    It’s imperative Goffin’s plays quite aggressive. And of course he will need a good 1st serve percentage, because Fed can easily attack his 2nd serves . If Goffin doesn’t bring anything new, the outcome will be the same as always.

    • Very well said Gaviria!

      If Goffin doesn’t being variations/changes to trouble the FED GOAT, Goffin will be afflicted by a new curse called the “GOAT CURSE”!lol Thus, he will be win-less against the FED GOAT for generations to come, come Goffin I Jr., Goffin II Jr., Goffin III Jr. etc.Ha,ha,ha…

      Fed -1.5 sets

  5. To see TMF playing like this at his age is pretty mind-blowing. But this WTF takes me back to the pre ’05 era when he routinely beat most of the field and there were no surprise upsets. He was favourite for this WTF from outset.

    • You look at the draw and you know he’s the favorite. As long as there’s no Djoko, Fed is the favorite. It’s no surprise that Fed last won this event in 2011 and has never won it since. It’s all because of Djoko, who beats him in 2012, 2015 final (Fed skip the 2014 final with a bad back).

  6. Is this Goffin for real??

    Can’t imagine he beating Fed here, and that will mean he beating both Rafa and Fed at a tournament, wow! Too early to say that though.

  7. I’m stunned at how well Goffin closed this match out. Can’t complain with Roger’s 52-5 season but still saddened by this loss. I didn’t see the second set but from looks of the third set, Goffin took this match from Fed. He earned it. I’ve never seen him play that well and aggressively in a match. Unbelievable 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

  8. I am thankful to Federer for this season. He needs to go home and rest. What and excellent season.
    At the same time I’m happy for Goffin. It doesn’t matter if Fed made it easier. The Belgian played very well today. Well done!

  9. Wow! Bravo Goffin! So calm, so self-confident to serve it out! I did not foresee this win especially when I come to think that Rafa on one leg almost best him! However, Goffin proved his no-fear attitude when beating Nole in Monte Carlo this year!

    Btw, Fed looked very nervous out there, made some uncharacteristic errors…

  10. Wow! Goffin!!

    Can’t believe it! I’ve written him off before this match, can’t imagine him beating Fed who’s a big favorite here! I just hope he has enough energy for the final tomorrow.

    Yes, for the first time after so long, we do not have any big four guys in the final! Also, we have two rookies in the final! Even the big four guys didn’t reach the final on their debut.

  11. Wow! Before the match, I said that there was no way that Goffin would win. I was sure it was going to be like Basel after the 1st set. But Goffin turned it around! Great match from Goffin! Let’s see who he’s gonna face in the finals.

  12. I am surprised as well. Goffin was really carm. So happy for him. Goffin is so gritty. I think Goffin’s USO run did not end well. Knee problems were there. But he has just played superb. I just love the way he closed this out. Service was good.

    Signs of things to come !! Fed and Rafa not winning without Djoker and Murray is possible. This was a fairy tail year for both of them but 2018 might not be.

    I doubt both have ended the season in 80% fitness.

    Happy for Rafa as well, I dont think he can lose his no. 1 ranking till April now for sure.

  13. Goffin beats Fed with aggression and never lets up, well done. I hope Rafa watches this and learns a thing or two; staying at the baseline is not going to work against Fed on the HCs, you got to take it to him.

      • Roger, Oliver Paton is the same person who in the 3rd set between Fed and Zverev said he ‘is the only one’ who predicted an upset, but it didn’t happen. It didn’t go his way. This time around, after Goffin won, he is coming here as saying he ‘is the only one who predicted’ the result.

        • I guess the only one in the planet. And predicting in this forum only when Zverev was in a good position in 3rd set and only after the match ended between Fed and Goffin, not before. Well done genius.

    • I hope this big win will benefit him in the future, and not melt down against top4 when he’s on the edge of winning. I believe this will give him great confidence.

      • I think it will, Eugene. These wins are huge for a player like Goffin. He knows he has the game to play with the best, on any surface. He just needs the self-belief, and there’s nothing like these sorts of wins to give it to a player.

  14. Shocker..Strange things can happen in tennis..Goffin who has never beaten Fed beating him on his fav indoors in a pressure match..

    Atleast Rafa was injured when Goffin beat him..Was fed injured too? Or just played poor?

    Good for rafa that he ends with 1000 plus points difference..atleast now no one will say Fed had better season as 1000 pts plus difference is sizeable. If it was just 140, he had a good shot at being best player though being No 2 as he would have had 2 more titles..Rafa now has more final appearances this year and is deservedly best player of the year.

    • That’s not a shocker. Not for me at least. What’s shocking sanju is your obsession over Rafa ending no.1 after he ALREADY has been rewarded the trophy. Too much reassurance.

      • Eugene..You cannot refute that many Fed fans have been going on and on about Fed being player of the year though Rafa ended No 1..Is it not happening all over..by few on this site too? Why did you not stop them? I am not obsessed about Rafa ending No 1..he has and it is a fact..my only grouse is some Fed fans not crediting what he has done this year by deliberately putting Roger above him all the time..and I have been very polite and not made any bad comment on Fed anytime whatsoever as he is incredible ..my grouse is over his few fans (surely you not in that list) crowing about him being better than Rafa this year.

        • Sanju, I see what you mean. But you can’t control their reactions. You can’t make everyone think same way. You only hurt yourself. Other people are entitled to their opinion as long as they don’t discredit anyone. Focus on your circle of influence, otherwise you’re putting yourself at risk to be hurt by something you don’t have control over.

          • I am sooooo happy that Fed’s loss silenced Fed’s worshippers who had been trolling Rafa since Rafa clinched the YE#1 ranking. They created their imaginary ‘Player of the year’ award for Fed in Fedfans’ alternate universe! LOL

    • Sanju,

      I don’t think either Rafa or Federer was injured enough not to play. They obviously thought so too or wouldn’t have played.

      I think it discredits one player’s victory to focus on injury to the other player. After all, Goffin has been injured lately as well. No one would have mentioned it had he lost to Rafa or Fed.

      • Totally agree. When Fedal lose, their fans are too quick to find excuses and maybe ‘lean’ on a potential injury. Come on. This is tennis. You’re supposed to put pressure on your back, knees etc.

    • I think that’s going to be a miracle actually if riches finals at AO. As I said previously after this match against Goffin, the Belgian played very well, but Fed was not himself today. His both FH and BH were very poor especially in the 2nd and 3rd set. Too many UE and serving poor again. That’s not to take anything from Goffin. He overcame himself and I hope he will do it more often against top10.

    • Yeah, afraid so. If that’s the case I’m much sorrier about the back problem resurfacing than the loss. Fed didn’t *need* this title or the ranking points. He’s #2 by a considerable margin. He should have time to get his back problem sorted, if necessary, before the AO. And yes, slams get MUCH harder to win – for most – post 30. Just look at the history books.

  15. That was freakin’ awesome from Goffin… He got wins over Novak, Rafa, and Fed this season. Aside from Stan, who did it twice, I can’t even think of the last person who beat those three guys in one season? Davydenko? Nalbandian?

  16. Just looked at the best match of the year. Dimitrov versus Rafa. I think it was a real brutal match for Rafa and Dimi lokked fresher in the fifth set. Rafa just willed to win.

    Credit to him making the final competitive after that 5 hour encounter.

    I hope Rafa set his scheduling for 2018 . He should be fit for FO no matter what. I think he could have won 2016 FO had his wrist been OK. Only Djoker could have beaten him that year. And Djoker did not play all that great against Murray in RG final.

  17. NNY i saw the first two sets, then i assumed that Federer would cruise through, imagine my surprise to see Goffin come from a set down to win in three, Goffin beating Fedal who saw that coming ?

  18. I Love Rafa, but the GC tennis that Berdych played beating Federer and Djokovic b2b was some of the best tennis ive ever seen him play, at Wimbledon in 2010, sadly he ran out of steam to put up much of a fight in the final against Rafa, Lisicki in 2013 was the same, sorry off topic i know but just wanted to throw that in ….

    • Grigor Dimitrov and J. Sock have to believe that they can win WTF now that Fed is out, I hope this match is competitive.

      I won’t be surprised if D. Goffin wins the whole thing but i am rooting for J. Sock to win it all.

    • Federer couldn’t raise his level from the RR stage, which was far from great, possibly because of tiredness or the bad back surfacing again. Goffin took advantage of that and stepped up his game to the occasion. He said in his pre-match conference that he would bring something new this time and he totally made it, playing more agressively than he usually does against Federer and coming forward to the net, which surprised Fed, imo.

      • David Goffin won fair and square, no excuses.
        I don’t think he won because R. Federer has an injury, he won because he was they better player 2day.

        Congrats to Goffin!

  19. Goffin! Take nothing away from David. He just beat the top 2 players in the world in the same tournament. He said before the match that he was going to do something different, and he did, even after losing the first set. He upped the pace, the aggression, and when serving for the match he didn’t fold like he did when playing Nadal, but came up with some huge serves!

    Roger not at his best, obviously, but Goffin had something to do with that. Props for the biggest win of his career.

  20. Federer and Rafa Nadal are the greatest modern rivals in tennis, but they’re also great friends.
    I’m personally a big fan. Did an illustration of these guys a while back.
    You can check it out and download it for free if you want on the following link:

    https://goo.gl/fvi7HY
    Let me know what you think

    • They are NOT friends.

      Interview with Rafa in Basel on October 19, 2014 (in German):
      Tages-Anzeiger, October 20, 2014: ¤¤ Roger and I get along, but we are not friends.¤¤
      http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/sport/tennis/Roger-und-ich-verstehen-uns-sind-aber-keine-Freunde/story/11831419

      An excerpt, translated from German by Chris Boardman:
      Question: “How would you describe your relationship with him [Federer]?”
      RAFA: “We understand each other well. But we’re not friends. Not because we are rivals. But because my friends are from Mallorca. Friends are those people who are there every day of your life. With whom one is always in contact. But I always had a good relationship with Roger, always had great respect for him. And he for me. We have achieved many positive things together, for example our exhibition matches around the world for our foundations. I hope we will also maintain this good relationship beyond our careers.”

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