Roger Federer is two wins away from a second consecutive Indian Wells title, with Borna Coric standing in his way during semifinal action on Saturday. Meanwhile, Milos Raonic has made a resurgent run and will face Juan Martin Del Potro.
(1) Roger Federer vs. Borna Coric
Aside from his lone ATP title last spring in Marrakech, Coric has turned in the two best tournaments of his career in Dubai (2015) and Indian Wells (currently). Coric’s semifinal opponent on both occasions? None other than Federer, who trounced the Croat 6-2, 6-1 to end his Dubai run in unceremonious fashion. They will meet for a second time on Saturday at the BNP Paribas Open, where Coric has simply been on fire throughout the fortnight. The 21-year-old did not lose more than three games in any set against Donald Young, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, and Roberto Bautista Agut before outlasting Taylor Fritz in a three and then upsetting a red-hot Kevin Anderson 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(3) on Thursday.
Federer clinched maintaining the No. 1 ranking following this fortnight by reaching the semifinals, a feat he accomplished thanks to straight-set defeats of Federico Delbonis, Filip Krajinovic, Jeremy Chardy, and Hyeon Chung. The Swiss is a flawless 16-0 this season with titles at the Australian Open and in Rotterdam. This will be more competitive than their previous encounter because Coric has grown, both literally and figuratively, but he is more of a counter-puncher than an aggressor and will let Federer dictate play. No game-style has been working against the 20-time Grand Slam champion of late, and defense is definitely not one that will work based on the 36-year-old’s current level of play.
Pick: Federer in 2 losing 8 games or fewer
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(32) Milos Raonic vs. (6) Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro and Raonic will be squaring of for the fourth time in their careers on Saturday. Raonic is leading the head-to-head series 2-1, with a controversial 7-5, 6-4 win at the 2013 Montreal Masters and a 6-3, 7-6(6) victory one year ago in the Delray Beach semifinals. Del Potro’s lone success came via a 7-6(5), 7-5 decision in the 2013 Tokyo title match.
Both players have struggled with injuries throughout their careers, which is why they have faced each other only three times. Of late, though, Del Potro has been enjoying a steady climb whereas Raonic has been going in the other direction. The Argentine is back up to No. 8 in the world and he is 15-3 this season with a title in Acapulco and a runner-up performance in Auckland. He has advanced in Indian Wells by ousting Alex De Minaur, David Ferrer, Leonardo Mayer, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. Raonic booked his spot in the last four thanks to defeats of Felix Auger-Aliassime, Joao Sousa, and Sam Querrey plus a walkover from Marcos Baghdatis. This has come from basically out of nowhere for the 38th-ranked Canadian, who had previously been just 3-3 in 2018. Del Potro is simply at a different level right now–certainly based on the quality of the Raonic-Querrey match–so the 32nd seed will have to serve incredibly well in order to seriously compete.
Pick: Del Potro in 2
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Can’t see Fed being seriously troubled by Coric in any way. Unless Roger’s level drops far from what it has been, Fed in 2 fairly easily.
Raonic is still far from his best, so should be Delpo in 2 unless his back flares up as it did against Mayer.
Agree. But maybe Raonic will win a set. Delpo is probably exhausted, and playing in broad daylight won’t do any good to him
Thoughts?
Same picks as Ricky
Well. Coric clearly showed up for this match! I think I took for granted that, while his big individual wins haven’t led him to titles thus far, he has definitely proven that he can beat top players in best-of-three when he’s on.
He’s beaten 2 different Big 4 guys before… Why not make it 3?
Surprise, surprise, for me, Kevin. Coric has beaten Rafa, right? And who else? I don’t remember. I just know Coric hasn’t been on my mind for a long time and didn’t expect this.
Ratcliff-
He beat Andy in Dubai in 2015. I did say before the match that Coric is absolutely capable of beating Federer, particularly in best-of-three, if two things happen- Coric shows up to play, and Federer’s level drops. And that’s exactly what’s happened so far. Neither of them has played very well, especially Fed, but Coric was able to be the clutch one in the first set, then Fed was the clutch one in the second.
Let’s hope the third set has an overall higher quality from both players!
Totally disagree that Coric didn’t play well in the first set, and first part of the 2nd. Dude was on fire with the depth and consistency of his groundstrokes. Through 4-2 in the 2nd, he was dominating Fed from the baseline.
Thanks Kevin.
I tuned in late and see now it’s also a windy afternoon in Indian Wells – sometimes a challenge to Fed’s serve and Coric is applying the pressure to Fed’s backhand.
Coric breaks Federer again. Can he hold?
This is quite a game, RC. Fed not backing down, and Coric is hitting some great shots.
Shame to lose on a DF, but he’s served so well all day I thought he was due for one on a big point.
Well, the Federer backhand finally showed up in that game and Fed breaks back. And follows that up with a love hold.
So close but not quite enough for poor Borna, Joe.
Federer escaped with that win. He looked nervous until he struck a good backhand and had a love hold in the 3rd set, that’s my very un-expert observation lol
That’s the first I’ve watched of a Federer match in so long. I just take for granted that he wins. That was close.
Yes, it was close. I think those sorts of wins say more about Fed than a lot of his matches where he just cruises. It’s a cliche, but it really is the mark of a champion who never gives up.
At two points especially I thought Fed could just mail it in. The first was early in the 2nd set when he had three break points (courtesy of three Coric errors, not any great play by Fed) and he failed to convert any. The second point was when Coric broke to go ahead 4-3 in the 2nd, leading to that long game where Fed hit some good BHs.
I think Coric has all the tools that Chung does, with maybe a better serve and possibly return. I thought he handled Fed’s serve well all day, and even a lot of good 1st serves came back with interest. I think we’ll see a lot more of Coric at the end of big tournaments.
Agree about seeing a lot more of Borna Coric, Joe.
Which one do you think will perform better on clay, Chung or Coric?
Its better to loose to Coric than Chung, it will not be change of Guard. Watching Chung made me nervous, Fed also was very focused.
Fed into the final in a match that he had plenty of opportunity to lose. He made a smart tactical change halfway through the second set. Coric feeds on pace, and Fed stopped giving him so much of it, mixing it up and hitting it down the middle a lot more. He also stopped coming over the return and chipping it back, which was actually more effective against Coric. A great win for Fed and a tough loss for Coric. Really felt bad for him with the crowd so behind Fed, but that’s par for the course for Roger’s opponents.
Oh so that’s how it went down. Thanks Joe. I didn’t notice the change midway through second set. But it all makes sense, even the part about the crowd, sadly.
Vamos Delpo!!
The only thing I really don’t like is when the crowd cheers Coric’s easy misses on short points, or DFs (the worst).
Maybe it’s just the horizontal stripes on his shirt, but to me it sure looks like there’s more of Raonic than there used to be. He’s someone who needs as much mobility as he can get, and the extra pounds aren’t helping him.
Delpo in 2 or 3 tomorrow. He’ll be a bit fresher and he’s one of those guys who consistently challenges Fed
That was a very dramatic and exciting match. Both guys played horribly overall, but both played their best in the biggest moments. The only difference was that played better in the few REALLY big points. Coric also crumbled under the pressure and the end and doubles faulted on break point. I gotta say, Fed had very little business winning that match, but it’s definitely a testament to his, in my opinion, improved clutchness. I’ve seen him play better under pressure, with more consistency, in big matches since the return from injury last year, than he ever did before. He’s obviously doesn’t win every close big match, like against Del Po at US Open and Goffin at WTF, but nobody does. But he’s come through a lot of tight matches in the last year or so, against quality opponents that I am not really convinced he would have come through in the past…. Rafa in AO final 2017, Del Po in Shanghai SF and Basel F, Kyrgios and Berdych in Miami QF and SF 2017, now Coric in IW SF. Hell, even against Cilic in the AO final, I seriously thought for a few minutes at the beginning of the 5th set that Cilic was going to run away with it! These are all matches where Fed absolutely could have lost, and some of them it was actually a miracle that he won… He at very least had to fight his ass off in all of them. There’s always a little bit of luck involved anytime that someone wins one of those super-close matches. But you typically need serious mental toughness to go with a lucky break or two.
Particularly at the age he’s at, it’s crazy to be that he’s still competing this hard, and in some ways I believe he’s actually competing harder than he has in a while. The game has unsuccessfully tried to move on from the older Big 4 guys for a while now. This season they should arguably have their best chance yet of rising above the Big 4, as the only one of the 4 who is actually healthy and in good form at the moment happens to be the one guy in the group who is WAY older than the other three haha! But this old guy is STILL too good for them! It’s crazy!
Anyway, I like how the only currently-healthy guy on tour who is TRULY a worthy adversary for Federer is the guy he is facing in the Final. 🙂 In terms of what we’ve got left in the decimated field, Federer-Del Po is arguably the best rivalry for the past year. Their matches have all been close, all were arguably big matches, and it was Del Po who conquered Fed at the US Open. I honestly don’t know who I would pick to win tomorrow’s Final at this moment… If Fed is completely healthy, I think he would have to be favored just slightly. But if Fed shows up and plays like he did today, Del Po will run away with it. I think Fed could also be tired tomorrow, as today’s match surely took more out of him than any other match this week. He was grinding a lot against Coric, and it was in the hot sun. So maybe Del Po should be slightly favored? I honestly don’t know what I think yet…
All I do know is that either guy could win tomorrow. This matchup is pretty close to being even on hardcourt… I would be VERY surprised if this match didn’t go three sets, or wasn’t at least 2 extremely tight sets. These guys seemingly always go the distance in big matches.
Kevin: I honestly don’t what you’re talking about saying that both guys played horribly. Coric played terrific tennis overall, and even Fed didn’t play badly, though of course he can play better.
To be honest, based on what I’ve seen I don’t think that Delpo will give Fed as much trouble tomorrow as Coric did today. Coric is hitting the ball better off the ground, is hitting the return better, and has better movement. Delpo of course has a bigger serve and a greater ability to hit outright winners, but that will be blunted a bit with the slow court, and in any case he will produce more errors. I also think Fed will bring something closer to his A game tomorrow. Federer in 2 with no tiebreaks.
Tignor agrees with my analysis: Coric played perhaps the best tennis of his life for the first half of the match, and Fed couldn’t stay with him from the baseline. At that point, Fed deliberately changed tactics to a much more conservative game plan, hoping that Coric would come off the boil, which he eventually did.
All credit to Borna for coming out on fire and never giving up; and to Fed for recognizing that Plan A wasn’t working and so going to Plan B.
http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2018/03/roger-federer-had-look-mirror-order-reach-indian-wells-final-bnp-paribas-open-borna-coric/72787/
Coric was in full control while he was hitting flat maintaining consistent depth especially to feds bh preventing fed from stepping in and coming over the top of the ball with his return.
He started letting up in the second and a lot of his shots landed short which has never worked against Federer (or any top player for that matter).
Coric played well until he started to think he just might win (just like so many before him in that underdog position) which was his downfall.
I wonder why Fed was scheduled for the early match?
#CuriousNotCurious
Federer was hitting to Corics backhand early on which wasn’t a good idea.
Even with the change of tactics in the second,Coric was a break up final set,the match was on his racquet until then.Federer did show his true grit,something he doesn’t get enough credit for .
If you’re going to take the ball early -as Fed tries to do most of the time- the hardest shot to deal with is one that comes in hard, flat, and deep. Those are the kinds of shots Coric was sending Fed’s way yesterday. It’s actually easier to deal with deep shots hit with a lot of topspin, as Nadal’s are, because they bounce up into the racquet; effectively, the topspin is neutralized by taking the ball early. Not so with shots that come in deep and are relatively flat.
Of course, it’s incredibly difficult to hit the ball flat and deep consistently. Players employ heavy topspin for good reason -to keep the ball in the court. But some players can hit it relatively flat and with depth when they’re in the zone, and del Potro is one of them -though mostly only on his FH.
Fed once again going for too much and not playing a smart game plan, playing to Del Potro’s strengths. Del Potro is pretty dialed in, and Roger is not going to out-muscle him from the baseline. He needs to mix it up, give delpo some different looks including slice and bringing him in to net occasionally. Look for Fed to start doing that in the second set.
Delpo serving incredibly well; he just hit 7 straight 1st serves in the last two games, with a few aces. He’ll certainly win if he can keep that up.