Roger Federer may be out, but the semifinal lineup in Indian remains an extremely intriguing one. Rafael Nadal is going up against Tomas Berdych and Novak Djokovic is battling Juan Martin Del Potro.
(6) Tomas Berdcyh vs. (5) Rafael Nadal
Nadal’s comeback from seventh months off has been picking up steam by the day and he is in full flight at the BNP Paribas Open. Nadal, coming off clay-court titles in Sao Paulo and Acapulco, opened in Indian Wells with a win over Ryan Harrison before earning especially impressive victories at the expense of Ernests Gulbis and Roger Federer.
Up next for the world No. 5 is a 16th career meeting with Berdych, who is playing stellar tennis this season. The Czech finished runner-up in both Marseille and Dubai, and he improved his 2013 record to 18-4 with straight-set defeats this fortnight of Mischa Zverev, Florian Mayer, Richard Gasquet, and Kevin Anderson
“I think everyone knows who i would prefer to play,” Berdych said prior to the Federer-Nadal match.
It’s no secret of course, because Berdych has won five of his last eight meetings with Federer–including the last two at the U.S. Open and in Dubai. On the other hand, the world No. 6 is a horrendous 3-12 lifetime against Nadal and he has lost 11 consecutive matches in the series since once leading it 3-1. Nadal has won six of their nine previous hard-court encounters, including via a 6-7(5), 7-6(6), 6-4, 6-3 decision at last year’s Australian Open. They most recently faced each other last spring on the clay courts of Rome, where the Spaniard cruised 6-4, 7-5.
Berdych’s current form and the hard-court surface would normally point to a win for the No. 6 seed in this one. His past history against Nadal, however, is glaring and it may be too much for him to overcome. Furthermore, the relatively slow conditions in the desert will benefit the former world No. 1.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (7) Juan Martin Del Potro
Djokovic and Del Potro will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers and for the second time this season on Saturday in Indian Wells. They just faced each other earlier this month in Dubai, where Djokovic prevailed 6-3, 7-6(4) to improve his record in the head-to-head series to 8-2. The world No. 1 has won six of their seven hard-court battles and his only loss came via retirement.
Heading into this one, Djokovic has won an incredible 22 consecutive matches (many against elite competition) dating back to the start of last year’s World Tour Finals. The top-seeded Serb triumphed in Melbourne and Dubai before scoring Indian Wells victories over Fabio Fognini, Grigor Dimitrov, Sam Querrey, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Del Potro has improved to 15-3 for his 2013 campaign with scalps of Nikolay Davydenko, Bjorn Phau, Tommy Haas, and Andy Murray.
The conditions at this event suit Del Potro perfectly, but Djokovic has picked up the pace with each match this fortnight and he destroyed Tsonga 6-3, 6-1 on Friday. Right now there simply appears to be no stopping this guy.
Pick: Djokovic in 2
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I’m thinking Del Potro might get the first set like he did at the World Tour Finals but Djoker will pick up his level and Del Po will fade.