None of the Top 4 players in the world reached the final in Indian Wells, but this is absolutely as big as it gets for a world No. 5 against a world No. 7. Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro will collide on Sunday with the season’s first Masters 1000 title at stake. A three-team panel weighs in with its picks for the showdown.
Ricky: This has to be the best and most intriguing world No. 5 vs. world No. 7 matchup in the history of tennis. Nadal’s comeback is already incredible and he would take it into the realm of hard-to-believe if he wins a Masters 1000 title in his first hard-court tournament in 12 months. Del Potro is looking to beat Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Nadal (arguably the three best players in the world right now) in succession, which would be a run of David Nalbandian-esque proportions. Okay, maybe that’s a bad comparison because Del Potro deserves a lot more than that after his performance against Djokovic. If the Argentine plays like did in the semifinals, he is going to win. Period.
That being said, it would take a Herculean effort (another one), for Del Potro to play anywhere near as well. His mental and physical accomplishments against Murray and Djokovic were titanic (came back from a set down in each and spent a total of five hours and 22 minutes on court), so it remains to be seen what he has left in the tank. The tank will have to be approaching full, because Nadal is also in fine form. Since blitzing David Ferrer 6-0, 6-2 in Acapulco, the Spaniard has made a shockingly smooth transition to the hard stuff. His run in the desert includes scalps of scorching hot opponents Ernests Gulbis and Tomas Berdych plus a whitewash of a wounded Roger Federer. Matches don’t get too much tougher to predict, but Nadal has to be the fresher of the two competitors and therefore he gets the nod. Nadal 6-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Steen (Tennis East Coast): Nadal and Del Potro have had great runs in Indian Wells thus far and are coming off of gritty, powerful performances in the semis. Del Potro shocked Djokovic in three sets, coming back from 3-0 down in the third and keeping his game together the whole way, while Nadal dealt with a competitive Berdych and won in straights. Head-to-head they are tied on hard courts at three wins each, but they haven’t played since 2011 (at this very event, a match won by Nadal) and really this is a different Del Potro this week. In some ways it is also a different Nadal, though after beating a hobbled Federer and outlasting a red-hot Gulbis, he appears to back to Top-3 level.
It should be a tight match, but given that Del Potro spent a while in the heat on Saturday and also played a somewhat less grueling but still a three-set match with Murray in the quarters that was also in the hot sun, I have to wonder about his fatigue level…especially since he has been playing for three consecutive weeks on tour. If Nadal can do what he does best and grind away, I can see him outlasting Del Potro in three sets. Nadal 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Romi (Tennis Grandstand): Nadal came into this tournament with absolutely no expectations and has been impressively relaxed the entire time. He’s started off matches a bit tentatively with his movement due to his knees but has adjusted well to each new opponent. Without Uncle Toni in his corner this week, he’s been playing more freely and without over-analysis. Now that he’s into the final, all he expects of it is to “go on court and enjoy the match and try my best in every moment, as I do usually trying to win, but with good calm.” That mentality has gotten him to the final by not psyching himself out on the hard court, but it certainly won’t help him win against an on-fire Del Potro.
The Argentine, himself, has somehow managed to continue improving his game over the last three matches against Tommy Haas, Murray and Djokovic. His forehand has been massively on point, the backhand slice is working its magic, and the serve is not breaking down on big points. Del Potro has been a bit passive at times, but it’s worked to his advantage. Nadal may lead their total head-to-head 7-3, but they are even in hard-court encounters and I expect Del Potro to take home his second hard-court title of the year. Del Potro 7-6, 5-7, 6-4.
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Del potro is dangerous and he handles topspin very well, especially on the hard courts…..Should be competitive regardless of who wins…I got Nadal in 3 sets