The bottom quarter of the BNP Paribas Open draw has already witnessed a showdown between rising stars Nick Kyrgios and Alexander Zverev. Additionally, Novak Djokovic is playing Juan Martin Del Potro on Tuesday.
But if you think those matchups are intriguing, wait until Wednesday.
Even though this Masters 1000 has not yet even reached the quarterfinals, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will renew their illustrious rivalry on Wednesday evening in Indian Wells. A spot in the last eight will be at stake when the two all-time greats square off for the 36th time in their careers and for the second time this season. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 23-12, but Federer–of course–most recently triumphed 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in an epic Australian Open final two months ago. If the 35-year-old Swiss prevails once again, their hard-court history against each other will be tied up at nine wins apiece.
Neither player had any real trouble setting up a battle that was eagerly anticipated when the hard-to-believe Indian Wells draw was released almost exactly one week ago. Federer did not break serve a single time against Steve Johnson on Tuesday, but he cruised through two tiebreakers en route to a 7-6(3), 7-6(4) victory. The 18-time Grand Slam champion preceded that result by destroying Stephane Robert 6-2, 6-1 in the second round. He is now 10-1 this season, with his only loss coming at the hands of Evgeny Donskoy in a 3-6, 7-6(7), 7-6(5) Dubai thriller during which Federer squandered three match points, a 5-2 advantage in the third set, and a 5-1 lead in the final tiebreaker.
Nadal booked his spot in the last 16 this fortnight thanks to straight-set defeats of fellow left-handers Guido Pella and Fernando Verdasco. Thus the world No. 6 is bouncing back nicely from a surprising Acapulco final setback against an on-fire Sam Querrey, who had previously upset David Goffin, Dominic Thiem, and Nick Kyrgios in succession.
“Everything,” Nadal said with a smile when asked what makes Federer’s game so special. “Yeah, he has the talent to do very difficult things that looks easy. He’s able to take the ball very early–serve and first shot. He [creates] a lot of winners with the two first shots, no? And then he’s able to take the ball always from inside (the court), and he’s very quick going to the net. If you play short ball, then you know that he [is going to] hit a winner, gonna play [either a] forehand or backhand, go to the net, and you are going to be in big trouble.
“His backhand in Melbourne was one of the best days that I played against him.”
It is true that Federer’s backhand has been outstanding of late, but he also had the benefit in Melbourne of facing Nadal on what amounted to be a relative ice rink compared to Australian Opens of previous years. Those same conditions will not be on display in the California desert, where the courts are slow and the balls bounce high.
Longer rallies will likely be the story on Wednesday, and many of those baseline exchanges will see Nadal successfully employ the strategy that has worked so well for him against Federer in the past: heavy topspin forehands to the backhand side.
Pick: Nadal in 2
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TBH Rafa was not himself in this match. There was no enthusiasm, his footwork was terible, he looked so slow out there! He lacked fighting spirit, he did not even sweat as he used to. Not to take anything away from Fed, he was really playing well but it’s kind of easy to look extraordinary against this Rafa…
fair points. But Fed’s backhand still stands out. Agree on all pts regarding Rafa though.
I think I would have to put $ on either Kyrgios or Fed winning the title at this point. Although, the way things are panning out thus far this season, who the hell knows who will win this thing!
Is Nishioka the new Rafa Nadal ?
Nah, he has no weapons, just keeps running. It’s insulting to Rafa to compare him to Nishioka.
I think Kyrgios is the new improved version of Fed. He may win that QF. Kyrgios for the title!
It was a joke. Don’t over-react my friend 😉
Too soon FR. Toooooo soon.
Kyrgios the new Fed?
Hahahahahaha
A bit overboard (if not gigantically premature to say the least.)
New Fed in terms of tennis skills and abilities, not in terms of achievements. It’s the aggressors’ world again, after the so called retrievers dominated for a decade.
Yeah all he’s done this year is win AO.
What are you talking about??
I don’t think Nick will beat Fed…too much respect for Maestro although Nick has beaten him before…Nick is always motivated against Rafa, not sure he would be the same when Fed is on the other side of the net…I would love to see Nick play his best tennis but that’s highly unlikely…of course Fed willl be one of the reasons for Nick not executing his best shots…
RT @carole_bouchard: Has Federer’s BH improved a lot ? Yes. Is he facing the vintage Rafa FH ? No. These two facts combined = the score.
Yeah to be fair to Rafa, some truth there.
Fed often comes out flying against Rafa but Rafa wilted instead of rising to the occasion.
Not so certain it would have been enough in this case. Difficult to say for sure.
RT @BenRothenberg: Roger Federer is #1 in Race to London with a 590-pt lead over second, and this is only his third tournament. He’s 35 years old, in theory.
Well I just hope that you not comparing prime Fed with peak fed. Don’t you? Or do you.
Nadal: “Today I didn’t play my best, but I am really confident I gonna play well in Miami.”
I think he will continue to play like crap at Miami; Miami not a place that suits him. I’ll foresee another early loss; even though I so wish for him to win it this time and then from next year onwards, stops going to IW and Miami.
Next year he can be exempted from playing any or all of these events so might as well he concentrates on his European clay season. It’s sad to say that I now think that he’s not going to win on the HCs, not with the likes of his big rivals plus the new comers being better than him.
Nah, he can’t meet Fed before semi finals in Miami. Rafa is No. 6 and Fed will be No. 7 next week at least unless he passes Rafa for No. 6 by winning IW.
Rafa can beat this Nole and this Murray in the quarters = assuming Nolandy can actually make a quarter final/ They haven’t been fairing well so far this year. Rafa’s been better than either of them.
I think Rafa actually has a good shot at Miami, assuming he plays well. Even though he’s never won it, he consistently goes deep and has made, what, 4 finals? And although the ball may not bounce as high as at IW, the courts in Miami are still relatively slow because it is so damn humid. So I think Rafa has a puncher’s chance. Honestly, if Federer ends up winning IW, or even just makes the final, I really wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled out of Miami… I think he’s still trying to be cautious about not re-injuring himself. Do you think he would withdraw from Miami if he wins IW, Hawk?
Possibly. Depending on how tired he is.
But at this rate, he won’t be tired.
I don’t think they adjust the seeding at Miami after IW. I think for this two events, they used their rankings cutoff before IW.
Of course they do.
luckystar (AT 7:09 AM),
The ATP rulebook says: “The selection and arrangement of seeds shall be based upon the most recent Emirates ATP Rankings list…”
Rafa’s definition of playing well is not about winning the title but just, er..,, playing well according to him!
If fed keeps up this level at the big events for the rest of the season, he could hit top 3 for sure. To be honest I think Novak will be outside top 3 at some point this year maybe not end up outside top 3 but at one point I think he will be. Djoker has started to improve his level lately but has run into the red hot monster serve of Kyrgios and this may dent his confidence again and send him into that post RG form again.
Like I said, confidence would win. The only thing that Fed did slightly better years ago was his forehand. Everything else is simply just as good if not better.
Roger on his new racquet and overall play:
“I can play in different ways even though I was able to do that way back then as well but I’m just able to step into the court much easier than I ever have and because I can do that… I don’t know I think by coming over my backhand on the backhand on the return at the beginning of the point I can dominate points from the start.”
“But with the racquet I can just have easier power, I can come over the backhand without shanking as much and then I gain CONFIDENCE and once you have the CONFIDENCE it’s much easier to step in.”
https://twitter.com/TennisChannel/status/842199793447321600
And those highlight points with Rafa serving at 1-3 in the first, Rafa is serving and not hitting that short early in the match.
Smelt this happening..was not sure why many were confident here about Rafa
The AO loss has planted a demon in Rafas head vs Fed and Fed is the favourite now till Rafa beats him. I will never pick against Fed vs Rafa going forth, even on clay till Rafa beats him . Rafa is a confidence player and he is not high on it now.
Surprised to see Novak losing twice in a row against Kyrgios
If Rafa continues to play like crap like this, how’s he going to beat Fed again and reverse this losing streak?
I think if Rafa keeps losing to his main rivals, he may say bye bye come next year or the year after. He said it himself, if he can’t improve, he may call it quit.
luckystar (AT 7:07 AM),
Rafa has repeatedly said (and repeated it again at the Banco Sabadell event in Acapulco in February) that he has no plans to retire from pro tennis any time soon.
Got news for you sanju.
All players, particularly at the top where they really need it, are confidence players.
Sanju (AT 4:59 AM),
I have replied you a zillion times that I always believe in Rafa BECAUSE I’m his fan. That’s the meaning of being a fan.
Basically Fed sorted out his mental problems playing Rafa. With bigger racquet it tilts the balance. In the past Fed stepped into court with negative body language playing Rafa. Notice now he doesn’t have that anymore.
Rafa on the other hand is like a boxer taking too many jabs on first round resulting him unable to focus, unable to impose all his fighting skills facing such adversity. It is not that he lost all his skill in one match. If he is to play another match against another player we might see a very different Rafa.
You should have looked into Rafa’s serve speed; he’s serving at best at 180 kph, not going to cut it facing big servers or those with great serve.
You just have to look at how Fed could return Rafa’s serve to his BH and returned it DTL. Had that be Kyrgios serving that, Fed won’t be able to return with interest.
To me the main issue is still Rafa’s serve, and also his nerve. He was able to serve well enough at the AO but when it mattered the most in the final, he wasn’t able to serve well and was broken a few times.
Rafa said it himself, that he wasn’t able to deal with Fed’s returns, saying he’s unable to have the advantage in his first two shots to trouble Fed (something to that effect). Rafa was broken a few times in the match.
Rafa has to sort out his serving issues, if not it will be tough for him to win matches against top players or big hitters, esp on the HCs.
Federer was just on fire today; not much Nadal could do. This was true in sets 1 and 3 at AO as well. If Roger can keep that kind of level there really isn’t much Rafa can do at this point in his career. However, as many others have said, the big difference is his larger racquet, and the confidence that has come with a vastly improved BH and return of serve. Those of us who are Fed fans can only wonder how many slams he would have won had he switched racquets 10 years ago (and had a coach committed to aggressive play). There is no rational reason why 25 Fed couldn’t play at least as well as he is today. But those are just what ifs…all we can do now is enjoy the kind of quality tennis that we saw Roger produce today.
Nah, the younger Fed was better off with his smaller racket imo. He would lose some of his edge playing with a bigger racket then. Regardless of bigger or smaller racket, he would have the same problem vs Rafa on clay. The Rafa in his heydays was very hard to beat, even on the HCs, for Fed, except on indoor low bouncing HCs. Fed didn’t have problem with anyone else in his earlier days, whether he’s using bigger or smaller racket so not much difference imo.
We can say what if all the time, what if Rafa has a bigger and better serve; what if he doesn’t have his injuries i.e. has a better planned reduced playing schedule etc.
No objective reason to make that claim.
luckystar (AT 8:29 AM),
Rafa hasn’t played more tournaments than it’s normal for a commitment player.
He could skip some 500 events like what Fed and Djoko did! I mean playing Rotterdam in 2009 after his grueling AO was simply insane, and then he got injured in the final there. Some of his injuries could be avoided imo, with better planning.
luckystar (AT 3:12 PM),
I know that Fed skipped many tournaments due to his health problems. So did Rafa.
The number of tournaments Rafa played:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7DUtluWgAA5yRm.jpg
Also playing four clay lead ups (two optional) to the French Open is questionable for Rafa at this stage in his career.
Joe Smith ( AT 7:35 AM),
If my memory serves me correctly, Fed started to use a larger racquet in the middle of 2013. So, it took him more than 3 years to get to used to it.
Rafa made some adjustments to his racquet at the end of last year. I hope, he’ll get to used to it sooner than in 3 years. 🙂
No he toyed with a new raquet at two clay tournaments in Hamburg and and Gstaad after a bad loss at Wimbledon to shake things up but quickly reverted to his smaller frame for the rest of the year.
He made the switch in the off season permanently using his new frame in 2014 where he made two slam semis and Wimby final finishing the year at No. 2. He made 4 of his first 5 Masters finals including a title in Cincy.
So he adjusted pretty quick to the racquet but Joe says the big change was two things:
“However, as many others have said, the big difference is his larger racquet, and the confidence that has come with a vastly improved BH and return of serve.”
The confidence with the BH and ROS is something Ljubicic helped him get from that racquet to make him a player at almost 36 that rivals any prior version of Fed. The six month layoff was the catalyst that enabled him with Ljuby’s help to revolutionize his game (like Rafa did with his 2013 comeback).
Fed and Rafa used that time off very wisely and effectively.
AT 7:42 PM,
I replied to Joe Smith AT 7:35 AM says: “…can only wonder how many SLAMS he would have won had he switched racquets 10 years ago.”
He did NOT win GS tournaments during 2014 – 2016, i.e. during 3 years after switching to a larger racket.
Yeah, he would have needed 2016 Ljuby (or equivalent) as coach AND 6 months lay off to retool).
Good point Augusta.
Still, that raquet would have helped him win even more ten years ago in my opinion. Better technology 10 years ahead of his opponent.
AT 8:57 PM,
The raquet did not help him against Donskoy recently…
Nope. Just one match though in a 500. If he’s going to lose early, that’s the right place.
I add to My post AT 10:08 PM.
And as far as single match losses like this, I refer the readers to Rafa’s wise words from a true Champion about these type of one-off losses such as Murray losing to Pospy for example:
´That´s the sport, no? Sometimes you win; sometimes you lose. Yesterday probably Andy didn´t play his best match, and Vasek served very well. So then you arrive — you go to a tiebreak, and anything can happen. Yeah. Andy just came here winning in Dubai, so probably he will be playing very well in Miami. It´s true that in Indian Wells during his career he had some bad matches maybe, and so happens sometimes. Sometimes you don´t feel comfortable in one event, and it´s difficult to overcome that. Happened for me a lot of times for me in Cincinnati, and I was not able to find the rhythm, and finally I won once. But when you have bad feelings in one event, sometimes it´s difficult to overcome that.´
Exactly Augusta. I doubt with a bigger racket, he would be able to deal with Rafa’s topspin FH on clay back then! Fed was clearly heading for a gradual decline after 2007, and at FO2008 he was hammered by Rafa, I doubt Fed would do better with a bigger racket against a Rafa at his peak.
Would a bigger racket help Fed in 2010? Unless we assumed he could beat Sod at FO, Berdych at Wimbledon and Djoko at USO after which he would have to face and beat Rafa. Or in 2009 when he would beat Rafa at AO and Delpo at USO.
Bigger racket or not, he’s not going to beat an on fire Djoko on the slower surfaces in 2011. The slower surfaces favor Djoko.
Ha, Augusta, it made me laughed how one match win and now Fed suddenly became so unbeatable with a bigger racket 10 years ago! These people, they should watch the matches in the past, and be reminded how quick, powerful and formidable a young pre-prime, peak and still in his prime Rafa was during the past four to ten years.
Not only Rafa, but Djoko too, when as teenagers they were already giving Fed and his peers back then all sorts of problems. Fed has the edge now at 35 because Rafa is no longer that formidable self he once was. I bet the Rafa of 2013 would still be beating this Fed, esp when Rafa was more aggressive, served much better than he did now.
Rafa is no longer the same Rafa anymore, could only managed 180+ kph first serve and even poorer second serves; not going to cut it against the top guys. Djoko too isn’t the same Djoko of 2015/early 2016. His performances at Doha final and AO SF and Final last year were sufficient to beat this Fed, big racket notwithstanding!
luckystar (AT 7:16 AM, 11:01 AM),
?
“His performances at Doha final and AO SF and Final last year were sufficient to beat this Fed, big racket notwithstanding!”
I think you are underestimating Federer too much. Fading Federer comprehensively beat absolute prime Djokovic at slow RG 2011, almost beat (should have beaten) US Open 2011, and Wimbledon 2012. So, current confident Federer with improved BH and ROS will absolute thrash Djokovic of Doha or whatever. In a nutshell, a Prime Djokovic has not absolutely created problems for Federer.
With new confidence, Nadal will actually have better chances of beating Djokovic than this Federer.
Gotta side with Asif here for the most part in 2011. Fed owned Nole 2011 FO in four sets handing him his first loss of the year.
Lost in three close sets at 2011 AO. Hard to say if this fed would have beaten him. Maybe maybe not but would have been closer.
Dubai/IW probably not.
2011 US Open SF that went to 7-5 in the 5th where Fed held match points? Very likely indeed.
As far as how it would have helped him beat Rafa on clay????
LOLOLOLOL, no one mentioned that but YOU!
Strawman arguments are everywhere.
Kyrgios in 3 good punt. But prolly fed. Sounds so “confident”
Don’t hurt yourself.
#FenceSitter
So now Rafa is waiting to lose 6 times in a row to Fed to start overturning it? How much is it against Djoko now? 10 in a row?
I know we all love him but frankly expecting too much out of him. If a person does rinse and repeat without evolving, no point expecting anything.
Hell its 23-13 now..I am surprised that Rafa knew going by AO experience that Fed will come over his BH and gain advantage in first 2 shots..he should then serve more to his FH if Feds BH is now truly a strength..Its the BH that beat Rafa in AO final..
No but he will do what he did 5 years back hoping for it to succeed. Fed has evolved Rafa, you may have not.. Its okay to lose but 6 2 6 3..seriously?
And yes you will do very well in Miami..based on what?
Sanju…i wish u asked rafa that in person..
Ha, based on doing the same thing and expecting different results, maybe hoping for easier draw??
Like I said before, his main rivals all have improved or evolved – Djoko become better at the net; Murray hits a more aggressive FH; Fed improves his BH and net rushing.
What have Rafa improved? Sorry, I cant think of any. He’s effectively playing the same way like ten years ago, despite not being able to cope with that style anymore.
We dont even need to talk about ten years ago, maybe four years ago, in 2013, and that is already too much to ask for!
2013 was waaay better than 2007.
I mean trying to play like four years ago is already not possible, so why not do some changes based on current conditions (as in his own physical limitations, the current playing trend whatever).
Ten years as in 2008.
Nine years.
And 2013 was just as good as 2008(albeit different).
You all dismiss that he’s coming off 2.5 years of injuries and severe anxiety.
He’s made two hard court finals and just got beaten by a God mode fed.
You’re all being too hard on him.
He deserves better.
AT 7:48 PM,
The thing Rafa called ‘anxiety’ (he felt during 2015) was the result of the injuries he suffered during 2014. His unlce/coach explained it several times.
AT 8:25 PM,
I don’t see the relevance to my point.
(Also, not what Rafa said.)
AT 8:52 PM,
U.Toni in his interview with COP, a radio network in Spain, in Dec.2015: “Getting injured in the AO 2014 final was a big blow. When he recovered [therapies helped him temporarily], the wrist issue happened [July 2014] and then appendicitis [Oct-Nov. 2014] when he was trying to come back. All this caused him a huge stress and lack of confidence in his body [in the 2015 season]. He was going on court [in 2015] without knowing/trusting what his body would do.”
Again, no relevance to my point and not what Rafa said anyways.
luckystar ( AT 11:42 AM),
The ‘improved’ versions of Djoko & Murray lost early in IW.
I’m talking about them in the past two years when they were no. 1 and 2; they had obviously up their game, though Djoko is now in a slump. Rafa has not changed or improved anything in his game after 2013.
luckystar (AT 3:17 PM),
Rafa has had a lot of injuries since 2013. He has had to overcome these issues in the first place.
(If my memory serves me correctly, he was forced to make some changes to his backhand to protect his left knee.)
https://tenngrand.com/2017/03/15/indian-wells-r4-preview-and-prediction-nadal-vs-federer/comment-page-4/#comment-254244
Rafa’s 1000% better than mid-2014 to pre-FO 2016.
#GlassHalfFull
2008 style more physical; 2013 less so and his 2017 self cant even cope with that 2013 style, so why not do something different.
Long time ago I told you Luckystar , given enough time Fed will start making inroads into Rafas game. As Rafa wears down physically and Fed retools his game. You didnt agree then. It is good that you stuck around long enough on these boards to see it
Mr or Ms, you have to stick around long enough to watch them on clay before jumping into conclusions!
You talked as if all along Fed had no hope beating Rafa on non clay surfaces when they were 9-7 adv Rafa before this AO. So what was Fed doing while winning that 7 times off clay? Didn’t he have inroad into Rafa’s game back then??
No he didnt , he said it in in his interview at AO that he faced a pyschological barrier when facing Nadal. His strategy has been to stay fit while Nadal wears himself out. Today Fed achieved something by beating Rafa three times in a row which means the balance has fundamentally shifted. Plus this is beginning of the year not a worn out WTF Rafa , so these defeats are definitely telling!
Telling what? That Fed after a six months rest can beat a 30 yo Rafa? Maybe he should take more six months rest then!
And shall I remind you that Rafa wasn’t fresh at the AO final after a long drawn out SF and with one fewer day rest? A 30 yo Rafa isn’t the same as a 22 yo Rafa!
The 2015 Basel match – Rafa used to lose to Fed on indoor HC, so what’s the surprise? Moreover, Rafa in 2015 was in a slump.
This IW loss wasn’t a surprise, Fed did beat Rafa at IW in 2012, also in straight sets. Rafa back then was better than he is now. The surprise was in the score, but Rafa did have such shocking losses, though rarely, at the hands of his main rivals – like Miami 2008 final vs Davy; 2016 Doha final vs Djoko; WTF 2011 RR vs Fed.
Lol , u are speaking as if these winnings are business as usual. None of these winnings are a surprise to you. Its only a surprise to the book keepers and other watchers of tennis. Up until Basel 2015. Federer lost to Nadal 5 consecutive times. That was an unmatched record for federer in their history of meetings. But now Federer has turned the clock against Rafa , producing a streak and record against Rafa.From now on given enough plays between them , Federer will continue to diminish the lopsided head to head.
Its telling that Federer is permanently and consistently better player against Rafa..Now!. Not the Fed of before who wins 1 in 3 matches between them to someone who will win 2 in 3 matches between them.
Why Lol? You as a Fed fan have not the confidence in Fed? When they played on non clay surfaces, the outcome of their matches could go either way, with Fed better on indoor courts and Rafa on outdoor courts, if not how could their non clay H2H be 10-9 ad Rafa (HC + grass) prior to this year?
If you ask me, I would say Fed in his peak (2004-2007) > than Rafa on non clay surfaces (5-2 ad Fed); Rafa at his peak and prime (2008-2014) > than Fed (8-3 ad Rafa) on non clay surfaces; and Fed > than post peak Rafa (from 2015- )on non clay surfaces, currently stands at 3-0 ad Fed.
Yes this is the point I made years ago, that into the future Federer will start correcting his lopsided h2h, which you didnt agree. I am going to bet Federer will start defeating Rafa on clay as well, if Rafa sticks around for that long to have enough meetings.
I don’t agree that’s for sure, that Fed is going to beat Rafa on clay. I’m going further to say that Rafa will beat Fed on the HCs too going forward, if Fed sticks around long enough!
You’re too optimistic about Fed and think too lowly of Rafa! Perhaps wishful thinking on your part! Rafa may not win big titles on the HCs again but sure he still can beat his rivals on them!
Kyrgios will be on the defensive in any rallies against. Djokovic just let him bloop moonball backhands back and forth all day. Federer will eat those for breakfast.
And lunch. And dinner.
And shall I remind you that back in 2010 at WTF, Fed’s BH was also on fire thus he beat the better version of Rafa back then in three sets.
A confident Rafa will beat this Fed on clay.
(I hope.)
You all are way too hard on Rafa (except Augusta008 and nadline if she was posting today).
Here are Rafa’s thoughts, with a champion’s mindset…
“I think it was always that he returned well. But at the same time, it was obvious that I didn’t have the right answer for his returns,” Nadal said. “I needed to neutralise the points. I needed to neutralise his two first balls, and I didn’t … I was not good enough tonight to make that happen and he deserved the victory, for sure.”
Nadal was only able to muster one break point opportunity in the match and it came after he dropped his opening service game. He was not able to break the 36 year old’s serve throughout.
“I need to hit longer and I need to hit higher to create problems [for him],” Nadal said. “I was not able to do that, and then he [had the] advantage.
“The worst thing in that match for me was from the beginning I was at a disadvantage – broken the first game of the match, and then broken in the second game of the second set. So that’s so difficult to play against Roger this way.”
The 30 year old was determined not to dwell on the fourth-round defeat for long. “When you feel that you are playing bad or you are in a bad moment, maybe it stays a little bit longer in your mind,” he said. “It is not my case.
“I started the season great, playing great tennis, winning a lot of matches. Today I didn’t play my best, but I am really confident I’m going to play well in Miami [next] week.”
@Lucky Star
“His performances at Doha final and AO SF and Final last year were sufficient to beat this Fed, big racket notwithstanding!”
I think you are underestimating Federer too much. Fading Federer comprehensively beat absolute prime Djokovic at slow RG 2011, almost beat (should have beaten) US Open 2011, and Wimbledon 2012. So, current confident Federer with improved BH and ROS will absolute thrash Djokovic of Doha or whatever. In a nutshell, a Prime Djokovic has not absolutely created problems for Federer.
With new confidence, Nadal will actually have better chances of beating Djokovic than this Federer.
How was Fed fading in 2011 when he was 29 going to 30? Why Fed was fading at 29/30 whilst Djoko and Rafa aren’t at 29/30 and are still considered to be in their prime?
Why do you pick FO2011 but forget about AO, Dubai, IW 2011? Or USO 2011? Are you saying Fed had no hope to even beat Djoko once at that time?
You also forget Fed was already using his bigger racket at AO 2016 but watch how Djoko beat him handily there. Djoko also beat Fed at Wimbledon and USO 2015 when Fed was using his bigger racket! Fed also lost early to Seppi at AO2015 when using his bigger racket!
The quicker AO court this year helped Fed’s game; Fed has a good record at IW all along. The court may be slow and high bouncing there but the dry desert air and lighter ball there travels quicker than normal slow courts, which may explain why Fed has better results there than at Miami which is more humid.