Indian Wells R4 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Zverev, Gasquet vs. Cilic

Rafael Nadal will continue his Indian Wells campaign on Wednesday against a red-hot Alexander Zverev. Richard Gasquet and Marin Cilic are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Alexander Zverev

Nadal and Zverev will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they clash in round four of the BNP Paribas Open on Wednesday afternoon. It has already been a stellar tournament for Zverev, and even by Nadal’s recent standards it has been relatively productive. Zverev booked his spot in the last 16 by taking out Ivan Dodig, Grigor Dimitrov, and Gilles Simon. The 18-year-old German came back from a set and a break down against Dodig, recovered from a break deficit against Dimitrov in the third set, and then clobbered Simon 6-2, 6-2. Nadal battled past Gilles Muller 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 before avenging his Australian Open defeat at the hands of Fernando Verdasco with a 6-0, 7-6(9) victory.

The fifth-ranked Spaniard is coming off consecutive setbacks on the Golden Swing–to Dominic Thiem in the Buenos Aires semifinals and to Pablo Cuevas in the Rio de Janeiro semis. Although he is in fine form for the most part, Zverev also needed a strong performance in Indian Wells to erase the taste of defeat. He lost a pair of Davis Cup rubbers to the Czech Republic’s Tomas Berdych and Lukas Rosol, the latter in a decisive fifth showdown. Zverev has the exact kind of game that can seriously trouble Nadal, with a huge serve and forehand to go along with a solid two-handed backhand. He also moves extremely well for a man of his size (6’6”). If the world No. 58 can avoid long rallies and shorten the match, he may be able to hit Nadal off the court before stamina becomes an issue.

Pick: Zverev in 2

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(8) Richard Gasquet vs. (10) Marin Cilic

Gasquet’s season got off to a late start because of a back injury, but he is making up for lost time heading into a fourth-round contest against Cilic in Indian Wells. Gasquet, who missed the Australian summer, captured a title in the first tournament of his year (Montpellier) before getting stopped by an on-fire Nick Kyrgios in the Marseille quarterfinals. So far in the desert he he has taken out Nicolas Mahut in straight sets and Alexandr Dolgopolov via a 2-6, 6-2, 6-1 decision.
Gaquet 1
Up next for the 10th-ranked Frenchman is a third career meeting with Cilic. Gasquet has taken both of their previous encounters, each at the Masters 1000 level. He prevailed 7-5, 6-4 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo in 2013 and 7-5, 6-3 last summer in Cincinnati. Cilic has endured physical problems of his own in recent times, but lackluster results in 2016 can only be attributed to poor play. The 10th-seeded Croat brought a disappointing 9-7 record with him into Indian Wells but it now stands at 11-7 following straight-set defeats of Ryan Harrison and Leonardo Mayer. Based on current form, Gasquet should have a relatively clear edge in this one.

Pick: Gasquet in 2

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37 Comments on Indian Wells R4 previews and picks: Nadal vs. Zverev, Gasquet vs. Cilic

  1. Rafa breaks back thanks to Zverev getting a bad case of the jitters.

    Now, can Rafa hold his serve to even it up?

    • I meant to say – sensing!

      Stupid autocorrect!

      The wheels have come off for Zverev and Rafa gets the break.

      Now can Rafa hold his serve and get the win?

      Ed should have continued watching. I guess Rafa needed a break to get the win.

  2. Any other season, I would say Rafa has it. But with this Rafa, I am not sure. Hope he gets its done. At least his confidence will go up a few notches.

  3. I’ve been playing tennis since 7 and just finished at 9 and on way home. I wanted to see match but also wanted to not miss practice. This seems like an epic. Wish I’d seen it. Don’t think I’ll get home in time to see the end. My little brother has been watching though and he told me Zverev really fell apart. Rafa is gonna win now.

    • No one could pay me enough to watch that match again.

      Rafa isn’t back. Zverev just fell apart. Rafa got lucky.

      At least let’s not rewrite reality here. Get excited if Rafa wins this tournament,

  4. So Rafa keeps it together and gets the win. Rafa had some luck and help with Zverev falling apart. But that’s the sport. You have to stay in it until the end.

    Rafa needed this win and his reaction says it all. I’ll take it. A win is a win.

    I did not want to see another ugly loss to someone he never lost to. No way!

    Now I assume they will go to Isner/Nishi. Rafa has his work cut out for him. But he’s still in this and has three wins.

    • . Over the last year, we have had Rafa ‘lose’ over and over and over again. Does not hurt when the rub of green goes the other way 🙂

    • Yes, that is a fair statement. However, a player has to stay in the match and not collapse before the last point.

      Rafa just took advantage of what Zverev gave him. It’s interesting that I said in my pre-match prediction that I thought rafa’s experience would be the difference.

    • Rafa was down 30-0 in the 5-3 game …played so aggressive to reach 30-30…don’t forget that! Zverev faltered on MP but that can happen….

  5. hahahah LOVEDDDDD RAFA’S REACTION!!

    He could not do it against raonic last year and that completely derailed his train…He did not let it happen again.

    Best match of the year?

    Now come to think of it, rafa was one point away from going a double break down at 1-4 ! He hit his best serve of the match to erase that BP.

    He did not give up and rose to the occasion! Zverev was clearly hitting the ball better and harder but rafa’s forehand found a new gear. I have not seen better striking from his forehand in a long long time. I just lost did not think he would miss a forehand!

    How close were we to have another youngster getting a win over Rafa and hearing about Rafa’s decline?

    • Too close for comfort. He virtually hypnotised Zev into making so many errors in the third set.

      I agree he has turned the corner at last. It may take a while before we can celebrate on a regular basis but I am optimistic he has finally shaken the monkey off his back.

  6. Two months ago, Rafa would have lost this match. So I think he has turned the corner. The mental strength and he is backing his shots.

  7. My assessment was spot on. Rafa said that he was surprised by the sudden increase in level of Zverev’s play in the beginning of the third. Rafa needed some time to adapt and was able to do it…..

    I don’t know what will happen in the next matches but this tournament has given him so much positive energy. It must have given a new life to his soul. Beating Muller in that manner (saving BP on 3-3 in the final set) , beating verdasco after saving FIVE set points and now winning this match today!! Losing the first set in that manner and then the response in the third.

    It is not only about Rafa grinding his way to victories but also about the high level of tennis he has shown. He has delivered two bagels so far !

    The second set against Zverev was quite extraordinary…..8 winners to 1 UE ….81mph avg speed on the forehand (much higher than his standard)…. ROS was so good as well..

    I am quite happy! Very very satisfied

    • Wonder if in the late stage of his career, he is actually better on hards than clay as evidenced by his strong fall season

      • haha…don’t think so. Can’t judge anything from his performances in SOuth America… so many factors are at play here…can’t exactly tell what is contributing to the improvement. Is it because of switching back to the Babolat RPM blast strings? Is it because of not having terrible humid conditions here? Is it the absence of Toni (just for a change) and listening only to a difference voice in coach Roig? Or is it just Larry Ellison’s unflinching support? lol

        • Rod Laver in particular has been beaming with pleasure at Rafa’s renaissance all this week. As for Larry Ellison – you would think it was all his own work. BTW, if he has any more botox pumpled into his face it looks like it will explode any minute now 🙂

  8. vamosrafa,

    I am not getting carried away with this win. I am happy that Rafa was able to survive and find a way to win. But he had a lot of help from Zverev who forgot to play until the last point.

    I agree with vmk1 about Rafa catching a break for once and some good fortune. I am very happy for him.

    But he’s got a tough match ahead of him. I do believe that this win will help Rafa. In that sense I am glad for him

    But I am not celebrating like crazy just yet. I have seen a difference in Rafa in these three matches. He has seemed to be more focused and handling the pressure better. He’s played better, too.

    Seeing Rafa do happy and jumping for joy is a good thing!

    • NNY, understandable….but , he is playing so much better and the mentality is better. Let’s not forget he was missing forehands by miles on clay and he was not prepared to face adversity. He is doing it here…

      Not saying this win means rafa’s back…that’s still far away but this is the first REAL step forward I have seen him take this year. That makes me happy.

      And, there was so much doubt his forehand not being the same shot it once was. Today he showed it is still capable of wiping players off the court. Rafa must be feeling a lot better about himself.

      And of course, he will not always to unlucky….deserves some luck….

      • vamosrafa,

        I absolutely agree with you. I noticed a difference in Rafa in his match with Muller. He was much more animated and focused and the body language was so much better. He has been handling the pressure situations in matches this week quite well.

        He’s thinking out there and changing his tactics. The forehand has reappeared, although still inconsistent,

        We are not imagining that there are improvements. It’s true. But for the sake of my emotions, I just have to take it one step at a time. Rafa needed some luck to come his way and I am glad that he got it. Whatever it takes.

        So I am feeling more optimistic about Rafa now. It’s a good thing!

        • haha I understand … one match at a time is fair way of looking at it…

          Would you prefer Isner or Nishi? Nishi is a bad match up but Isner has the best service game.

    • NNY, I said I couldn’t bear to watch but I cheated and peeped from between my fingers. So glad I didn’t miss the climax of the match.

      • Ed,

        Hi! It’s great to know that you were peeking! Good for you! So was I! Doing a little praying to the tennis Gods, too!

        I am just happy that Rafa won! He needs some luck and a few breaks to go his way to get out of this slump. His reaction was very special!

        Chapeau to you for hanging in there! 🙂

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