Indian Wells QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Hurkacz, Nadal vs. Khachanov

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are one round away from a potential semifinal showdown at the Indian Wells Masters. They first have to get past Hubert Hurkacz and Karen Khachanov, respectively, in the quarters on Friday.

Hubert Hurkacz vs. (4) Roger Federer

Federer is coming off career title No. 100 in Dubai and his bid for 200–well, at least for 101–is alive and well at the BNP Paribas Open. The 37-year-old Swiss is riding an eight-match winning streak and has won 13 sets in a row following Indian Wells wins over Peter Gojowyczk, Stan Wawrinka, and Kyle Edmund. Federer is 11-1 in 2019 and he is 65-12 lifetime at this tournament with five titles.

Up next for the world No. 4 on Friday is a first-ever meeting with Hurkacz, who is in the midst of a breakout fortnight. That’s not to say he was entirely unheard of prior to this run; in fact, the 22-year-old Pole upset Kei Nishikori last month in Dubai and did the same during third-round action in Indian Wells. Hurkacz, ranked 67th, has also taken out Donald Young, Lucas Pouille, and Denis Shapovalov. Clearly the up-and-comer is not afraid of the big stage, but this is by far the most high-profile match of his career and he has to be fatigued physically, as well, having survived a trio of three-setters.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(12) Karen Khachanov vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Khachanov will be going head-to-head for the sixth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot on Friday. This matchup could hardly be more lopsided, as Nadal is sweeping it 5-0 overall and 12-1 in total sets. On the bright side for Khachanov, their most recent encounter was by far their most entertaining; the Spaniard prevailed 5-7, 7-5, 7-6(7), 7-6(3) in the third round of last summer’s U.S. Open.

Conditions in Indian Wells are more favorable for Nadal, who is 53-10 lifetime in the desert with three titles. He has advanced this fortnight with routine defeats of Jared Donaldson, Diego Schwartzman, and Filip Krajinovic. Khachanov had been in a surprising slump this year, saddled with a losing record (4-5) prior to this event. But the 13th-ranked Russian is back in business now following victories over Feliciano Lopez, Andrey Rublev, and John Isner. Although Khachanov will take some confidence from the U.S. Open, this court is playing too slow for him to hit through an in-form Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 5-7 games

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29 Comments on Indian Wells QF previews and predictions: Federer vs. Hurkacz, Nadal vs. Khachanov

  1. Fed should win, but I watched Hurkacz take down Shapo and I was impressed. As long as Roger keeps his current level he should win (in fact, should take the title), but I think at least one set here will be fairly close. Fed in 2.

    Khachanov has plenty of power to hit through any hard court. He was in a bit of a slump before this tournament but he clearly improved a lot last year and looks to me like he is approaching that best form again. I don’t think this will be an easy win for Nadal, who has been playing good but not great, definitely not at the level he was at the AO before he met Novak. Surprisingly, the slow hard court may not suit his newly attacking style as much. I’d say Khachanov gets a set: Nadal in 3.

    • What are you talking about? Rafa hasn’t even lost a set and here you are saying he’s worse off now with his more aggressive game at IW? Well he wasn’t doing well at IW after winning in 2013; and in 2013 he won because he played a more aggressive game that year, beating a red hot Delpo in the final.

      This is the best start at IW I’ve seen him play after 2013. AO was BO5, and the court was quicker, so his opponents there couldn’t have the time to counter his game; IW played like a clay court with high bounces, so he has to play his baseline game with a mixture of his offensive game.

  2. Fed in 2 losing 5-7 games, Rafa in 2 losing 8 to 10 games.

    How does anyone, let alone a superstar athlete, hurt his feet while sitting quietly at a table during his press conference?

  3. Why the hell is Rafa continuing if he has a leg issue! That too this close to the clay season. He is not going to get any meaningful match practice in either in this state. Totally flummoxes me his decisions sometimes

  4. There’ll be no Fedal SF it seems. Rafa has an injured knee, I doubt he can win this match; even if he really wins this, he may just withdraw from the next.

    He plays so few matches yet he can get his knee injured, I guess he’s not going to last much longer in the tour. So, he’s been injured every year from 2014-2019, except 2015, what a record!

  5. And, without Djoko now, Rafa still can’t take advantage of it!

    I think Fed may win this one, or maybe even Raonic for the first time. Rafa please go home and rest and prepares for clay.

    I hope he just play on clay from now on plus the slams (and maybe WTF), no point getting injured all the time year after year.

  6. Why the hell is he not pulling out if he is in such obvious discomfort. He may inflict so much damage on that knee playing. It would be a shame if he cannot be a beast on clay thanks to the knee

  7. I think Rafa will retire from tennis one day because of his knees. Enough is enough, the knees don’t get better as he gets older, having to haul those muscles around year after year. There’s too much grinding during his career that he’s doing irreversible damage to his knees. It’s only on clay that he’s comfortable playing a more aggressive game, reducing the need to grind thus helping his knees a little.

    I’m getting sick of seeing him getting injuries after injuries; so, I hope he just plays on clay most of the time and stops the grinding.

    Even though he wins this QF, I think he’ll pull out from the SF; unless he doesn’t mind getting a beatdown from Fed.

    • Actually Rafa’s knee damage is reversible. He’ll have no problems once he stops playing pro tennis. It’s just a matter of giving the tendons time to heal. And, yes, I’d love to have a favorite player for whom my first post-match question is ‘did he win?’ instead of ‘is he ok?’ But it’s just not happening for me.

  8. He arrived fit and healthy and will leave hobbling.. I was dreading he would lose the second set tie-break and have to play a third. I doubt he will pull out (i\t’s not in his nature) but the wonky knee has come back to haunt him and will only get wotse if he doesn’t rest up.

    • Ed, he may pull out, just like he did in 2012 at Miami, after reaching the SF, with knee issue. He may not want to take any risk with the clay season round the corner.

  9. Gutsy win by Rafa. After his knee acted up I didn’t even know what to hope for. That he’d concede the match? Nope, hobbled enough to give back his break up in the 2nd set, but after a couple of games he started moving better – guessing maybe anti-inflammatories and painkillers kicked in. Still wasn’t moving at 100% but he made some adjustments, gutted it out. Will he play Fed tomorrow? My guess is he’ll wait and see how he is tomorrow. Hope he gives Fed the walkover if he isn’t close to 100%. Darren Cahill, who suffered a lot with tendinitis, said that sometimes it’s better the next day, sometimes it lingers for weeks or months. In Rafa’s case I have never known it to get better the next day.

    Don’t think Rafa will become a clay specialist. He’ll retire first. In any case I really, really hope he’ll skip Miami and Madrid.

    Rafa’s a crazy man but I love him.

  10. Heh heh…Just want to add a little from Ramara line..my version of coz!
    Rafa is crazy & stupid for not hired Moya earlier,for making bad decisions,bad scheduling,been stubborn…and i love him very much too!!….God!…this is crazy!!

    • Hi MA, great to ‘hear’ from you! Yeah, only a crazy Spaniard clay courter would make winning Wimbledon his life’s ambition. “Oh, I have to beat one of the greatest Wimbledon champs ever to do that? No problemo!” Only a crazy man would insist on playing the Olympics when his wrist is so bad that he was forced to pull out of RG and Wimbledon and didn’t even know if he COULD play singles until he got there. Then wins the doubles gold along with one of his besties (a bestie who only played doubles because Rafa had decided to ‘rescue’ the career he was about to retire from) and makes the semis in singles and was a match point away from making the final. Only a crazy man would change his serve 3 days before the start of the USO “because he couldn’t win it with the serve he had”. I still remember the awe McEnroe showed when he heard that.

  11. It’s painful to watch Rafa suffer on the court instead of enjoying his beautiful game. We were so distracted by his knee acting up again and by watching his body language that we missed some beautiful shot selection and amazing winners from our dear Rafa!

    I admire Rafa for being a warrior like tthis and for his never give up attitude! Am I the only one here being grateful that he continued to play? I guess great athletes learn to live and fight off the pain. I just love Rafa for all his virtues! He truly is one of the kind!

    Hope Rafa feels better tomorrow and recovers soon! He did move better at the end of the second set…
    I wonder what Kachanov will take from this loss having to admit that he was not being able to beat a hobbling version of Rafa!
    Rafa, if decided to play would have a very small chance against Maestro, but I still feel good that Rafa didn’t retire today!

    Vamos Champ!

    • Agree with you. I’m very proud of Rafa for sticking it out and finding a way of winning that match. Maybe it’s that us fans have the dubious “luxury” of looking ahead and worrying about tomorrow, next week, next month. Athletes are trained to stay in the moment and not worry about tomorrow.

      One. Match. At. A. Time.

      One. Point. At. A. Time.

      I wonder if Carlos will be yelling at him over the phone at some point.

  12. Hi back Ramara!….hahaha!…great to ‘hear’ from u too sis!…

    Yeah!…only a crazy man wouldn’t change anything when asked by reporter after he got back from long lay off bcoz of knee injury in 2008 by saying he will stick with it no matter what….
    Only a crazy man wouldn’t change anything in 2015(coach,play style etc) when he got beat left & right by his peers & let Novak stamped his authority on him further & now officially ‘owned’ him…

    And worst is,we’re also crazy coz still loving him like crazy even tho he gave us pain over & over again…now i don’t know who’s crazier Ramara!…Rafa or us??
    HAHAHAHAHAHAOHOHOHOHOHOHO…!!(My crazy laugh!)

  13. I was so distressed to see Rafa hobbling with another flare up of the knee. It just pains me to see him going through this. He is certainly not overplaying these days. But I get the feeling that the handwriting is on the wall and that hurts.

    I am very proud of Rafa for fighting in this match and managing to win. It has to be so hard for him to deal with yet another injury.

    I certainly don’t want Rafa to suffers beatdown at the hands of Fed if he can’t go all out.

    He was playing well and it was a joy to watch him on the court. The clay season is just around the corner, so I don’t expect Rafa will take the risk of playing if the knee is not okay.

    • Exactly NNY.

      Rafa suffering another injury again is just so painful to watch. He’s not playing a lot yet he gets injured again! What’s happening to him?

      Is it because of playing on the HCs? Or is it because he just couldn’t play back to back week on the HCs? Does he need another six months off to let his knee tendinitis to heal and his tendon to regenerate? I really thought a little bit of grinding now to get back his feel and his baseline game isn’t too detrimental to him, but now this injury happened.

      I really don’t know what Rafa can do now – if he plays on slow HCs, he has to grind which is not good for his knees; if he plays on quick HCs, he can get beaten by the big servers/big hitters, and there are many of them these days among the youngsters! On grass, points may be shorter but chances of him being beaten is even higher!

      So, I think he really should concentrate on playing on clay, and only plays the slams and the warmups for the non clay surfaces. But, that means not playing anything after the AO until MC and I’m not sure he won’t feel rusty even on clay.

      I do feel he really missed his chances of another Wimbledon last year, and another AO in 2017. I just hope he can win a few more FOs before he retires.

      • Luckystar MARCH 16, 2019 AT 6:25 AM,

        Rafa was off the Tour for seven months (2012-2013) because of Hoffa’s disease in his left knee, not because of tendinitis.
        In 2010, he recovered from knee tendinitis thanks to PRP treatment (on the left knee between Monte Carlo and Rome, both knees after Wimbledon). In 2012, he tried PRP treatment for Hoffa’s disease, but it didn’t help him. During his 7-month injury layoff, he got his knee pain under control, but it still bothered him after his returning to the Tour. He suffered with it until he underwent another type of therapy – stem cell treatment – at the end of 2013. He underwent stem cell theraphy on his back at the end of 2014 and then he said that a similar therapy had a positive effect on his knee’s pain. I have no information whether he has undergone PRP or stem cell treatments after 2014.

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