Dominic Thiem and Milos Raonic will be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers when the battle for a spot in the BNP Paribas Open final on Saturday. Raonic has won both of their previous encounters; 6-3, 6-4 at the 2016 Cincinnati Masters and 7-6(5), 6-3 a few months later at the Nitto ATP Finals.
While fast hard courts obviously favor Raonic and clay would give a massive edge to Thiem, Indian Wells conditions should make for a level playing field. In fact, Thiem has already fared better on these hard courts than he did on the red clay of the recent South American Golden Swing (2-2 record in two tournaments). The eighth-ranked Austrian has been both lucky and good in the desert, beating Jordan Thompson, Gilles Simon, and Ivo Karlovic in straight sets before getting a walkover from Gael Monfils.
Raonic has also benefited from an incredible draw–and now he faces Thiem instead of expected semifinal opponent Novak Djokovic. The 14th-ranked Canadian booked his semifinal spot by beating Sam Querrey, Marcos Giron, Alexander Zverev, and Miomir Kecmanovic in a section of the bracket vacated early by Alex de Minaur, Alexander Zverev, and an injured Kevin Anderson.
“I think the conditions are good for me, especially when the sun’s out,” Raonic explained. “The court heats up a little bit. There is a good amount of jump on the court. This year it’s a little bit slower than the previous years, but it allows me to take a few more swipes at a few more shots and I can do different things with my serve that I need to get ahead in the point.”
Still, aside from a hot start at the Australian Open he has been little more than decent this season. Thiem has not been great in 2019, either, but he is looking more impressive in Indian Wells and conditions are arguably even more advantageous to his game. The No. 7 seed’s return game was in fine form against Karlovic and he should be able to break down another big server–but it will be tougher than in round four.
Pick: Thiem in 3
[polldaddy poll=10265630]
WWW?
I really like Raonic in this one. Thinking in two sets
probably
I’m no expert but as a bettor I really like the over, one TB and a 6-4 and you’re there. Unless one of these guys is way off their game the over is very attainable, even without 3 sets.
Thiem in 3, he looked really good in his last matches. I really hope he reaches his first master 1000 final out of clay. Let’s go domi 🙂
Milos in 2.
Interesting one with such different styles.Ive been backing Raonic to go far this week so I’ll stick with that,him in three
I always forget that Thiem actually has a big serve. Not like Raonic, obviously, but still big. I know that Thiem is pretty much the hardest hitter off the ground on tour, but he can sure smack it out of the air, too!
Raonic has improved, but Thiem was too good today. It wasn’t easy against Milos’ serve, which was mostly on song and often untouchable. He hit one second serve at 141 mph! But Thiem played a great game from the ground, congrats on making the final.
Thiem is amazing
I think the high bouncing surface at IW favours Thiem too, he’s hitting 50+ rps topspin FH; it’s not a quick court too so Thiem could play well here.
I think he’s physically fresh too, and it seems he has improved his fitness and speed too; he’s so quick around the court, incredible.