World No. 4 Roger Federer will take on 2018 Roland Garros finalist Dominic Thiem in the final of Indian Wells on Sunday afternoon. Federer is going for his second consecutive title of the season.
Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem meet for the fifth time on Sunday in the BNP Paribas Open title match. Their head-to-head series is tied 2-2, but neither of Thiem’s wins have come on hard courts. The last time the Austrian beat Federer was in 2016 on the grass courts of Stuttgart, but the two men met just a few months ago at the Nitto ATP Finals–where the 20-time major champion gave Thiem a straight-set shellacking.
This is going to be something of an uphill battle for Thiem. Federer is in fine form and has been since he plowed through the draw in Dubai to take the title. Thiem, by contrast, went into Indian Wells off a first round loss on his preferred surface of clay to world No. 90 Laslo Djere. The Austrian ended up working himself into form throughout the week…and also got a bit lucky when the red-hot Gael Monfils withdrew with an Achilles’ tendinitis injury.
Thiem is typically known as a clay-court specialist; he defeated Rafael Nadal in Madrid in 2018 and fought his way to the finals of Roland Garros. Federer doesn’t have quite the reputation on hard courts as Nadal does on clay, but it’ll still be a big ask for Thiem to get the win.
The Swiss is enjoying far better form than Thiem at the moment. The slower courts at Indian Wells will help level the field a bit, but if Federer plays well it’s hard to imagine him losing.
Cheryl pick: Federer in 2
Ricky pick: Federer in 3
[polldaddy poll=10267284]
Fed in 2
hopefully the 25 yo can beat the 37yo.
Perhaps the relatively slow court will tip the balance in the Austrian’s favour so he can win this big title.
Fed should win but the upset is very possible.
Upset is NOT possible….GOAT in straight.
Fed in 3. But nice to see Thiem playing well again.
Upset very possible. Thiem has at least 45 % chances. I hope Roger gets his 101st title. He looked good here. Not amazing. I am pleased by his form.
I like both guys and I hope it goes 3 and I’d like to see Thiem win, just because it would be somebody different.
I’m really glad that Thiem is in the Final. He’s a guy whom I would really love to see win a Masers title finally. And how weird would it be if Dominic Thiem’s first “big” title was NOT on clay?? It would obviously be a big confidence booster for him going into clay season.
As for Fed, whether or not he wins today, it’s just remarkable that he is even competing at this level at all at his age. I don’t care that Stan is the only great player he has faced so far this tournament- he has looked really damn good at IW given how much he started to slip leading up it.
I also just realized that Fed has at least made the Final of Indian Wells 6 of the last 7 times he’s played in it. Although he’s only won 2 (potentially 3) titles out of those 6 Finals, Indian Wells has really been a consistently good tournament for him in his 30’s. I guess I never really thought of IW has a Fed-friendly tournament. It sort of reminds me of Djokovic at US Open. While Novak has “only” won the US Open 3 times, he’s made the Final 7 of the last 8 times he’s played there, and 8 of the last 11 times. It’s been one of his most consistent tournaments, despite not having a good Final record there.
If Federer can serve well he should win in straights. His ROS will be a lot better than Raonic, and I think Thiem’s serve will be under a lot more pressure than yesterday. However, Fed’s serve hasn’t always been his strong point during this tournament, so it could be tight. I think his relatively easy run will help him in the end. Fed in 2 close sets.
Already thinking about Miami. He lost there last year in round 1. Nice to chance to add some points in his ranking.
Nadal will probably skip it.
I kind of wonder whether Fed will skip Miami, especially if he wins today. If he’s going to play Madrid and RG he’ll need some rest.
H’mm. Good question but Madrid is about 7 weeks off so doubt he’ll skip Miami unless he’s really tired?
Hope this final is half as good as the WTA final.
Thiem worked like a hero to beat Milos. I hope he can get Fed this time. But I don’t care who wins – just hope both can play great tennis.
Voted for Thiem in 3. I never would have picked Thiem to the final – I thought he was as cold as Dimitrov.
Thiem is not playing badly, but Federer’s level so far is insane. Barely 20 minutes and he’s up 4-1.
and barely 25 mins and its 4-3
Good on Thiem to break and he played some good tennis, but still 6-3 to Fed for the first set. Fed has to be careful not give Thiem a lot of cheap points on ROS.
Hello
Fed has a slight meltdown in two straight games. Fails to hit a first serve and gets broken, and then a few questionable net-approaches. I think Roger does this sometimes; his game goes away for no apparent reason. Thiem up 4-1 and looking to take this to a 3rd set.
We could be in for a repeat of 2018 Final here. He seems to struggle the past year with losing belief in the biggest moments.
Could be, though I don’t think it’s a matter of losing belief so much as focus. He definitely didn’t play as well that set, but also some questionable strategy in terms of approaching the net on weak shots (serves and from the baseline).
If I was conspiracy-minded and the guy didn’t get paid $30 million just to wear a shirt, I’d wonder if it was part of a fix.
Watched the replay of Thiem v Raonic semi this morning. Thiem had to focus so hard to beat Raonic. After Milos won the 2nd set tb, I was certain Milos would take the match. Winning was an extremely tough mental and physical achievement for Dominic in the end. Milos was determined and had the crowd behind him. Indian Wells is a most Canadian tournament. Very knowledgeable tennis fans. Not a whiff of pot on them, lol. (like if they were in Canada) Remembering Novak complaining about smelling pot during a match at Toronto or Montreal.
Playing Federer has to feel good by comparison to Milos. If he loses to Fed he’ll be finessed to death. This is not the bludgeoning he took from Milos.
Wow
Whatever happens in this match from now on, I think there RG is not going to be a two horse race any more between Novak and Rafa
Wooooo hoo Dominic you beauty! What a way to take your first masters title
Fed just doesn’t have the mental fortitude to really compete at the highest level anymore. No knock on him- nobody does at his age. But it’s tough to watch him go out like this.
I don’t think that’s quite the right analysis, Kevin. He was competing but didn’t really have a lot of answers for Thiem’s firepower. I thought he should have thrown in a few more slices and maybe tried to bring Thiem to the net more. If you’re going to try to play at the baseline, you just have to go for winners, and Fed’s shots weren’t falling from about the middle of the 2nd set.
He just got beat by the better guy today. If he had maintained the level he started with, Fed would have run away with the match.
I don’t agree it’s the mental fortitude; I feel it’s more physical than mental. Thiem could overpower anyone, even all the big three!
I’m impressed with Thiem’s serve and ROS, esp against Raonic. Against Fed, it’s more tricky because Fed could vary his serves so well and so often. I do feel Thiem was nervous at the beginning of the match, hence he had to fight so hard to hold serve and then lost it and lost the first set. Fed lost a bit of steam in the second set allowing Thiem to take advantage to level the match. Of course, Thiem did raise his level in set two as he knew it would be game over for him if he didn’t.
I’m surprised Fed could rally so well from the baseline in set one, probably he’s still physically fresh, but he was really aggressive in his returns and tried so often to take the ball early; Thiem felt rushed throughout set one I feel. If it’s a younger Fed playing now, I think he’ll win in straight sets, too bad he’s 37 now, not 27!
Congrats to Thiem, and I’ve to say it’s still well done by Fed, to be able to win one and be runner run in another B2B event, at the age of 37. I think if he’s physically fresh, he still can win some more titles, maybe just not B2B ones.
*runner up I mean.