Houston and Marrakech previews and predictions

We still have to wait just a little bit for Masters 1000 events in Monte-Carlo, Madrid, and Rome to take center stage, but the clay-court swing is here. It begins in Marrakech and Houston, with Alexander Zverev, Fabio Fognini, Kyle Edmund, and Steve Johnson among those in the draws. This week is, per say, the calm before the storm.

U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championship

Where: Houston, Tex.
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $583,585
Points: 250

Top seed: Steve Johnson
Defending champion: Steve Johnson

Draw analysis: Houston has a problem, and it is a lack of star power. That is always going to be the case for a 250-point tournament sandwiched in between a whole host of Masters 1000s, but it is especially extreme this time around. John Isner and Nick Kyrgios are injured, leaving Johnson—the two-time defending champion—as the No. 1 seed. You have to go all the way down to 42nd in the rankings to find the No. 2 seed, Jeremy Chardy. Cameron Norrie and Reilly Opelka, who are rarely seeded even at small events, own first-round byes.

That means every section of this bracket is there for the taking, but the top half is especially soft. Opelka isn’t as dangerous on clay as he is on faster surfaces, and guys like Taylor Fritz, Denis Kudla, and Bernard Tomic rarely perform their best on the red stuff. Johnson has every reason to get back to the final, although Miami fourth-round participant Jordan Thompson may have other ideas. On the other side of the draw, 2018 runner-up Tennys Sandgren and veteran Pablo Cuevas could be able to take advantage.

First-round upset alert: (WC) Bjorn Fratangelo over (8) Sam Querrey. The head-to-head series stands at 1-1, with Fratangelo having gotten the job done on clay (2016 French Open). That is hardly surprising, as Fratangelo loves the dirt and Querrey would much rather face his fellow American on a hard court or grass. Houston’s eighth seed has slumped to 71st in the world due to some dreadful results of late.

Hot: Reilly Opelka, Mackenzie McDonald, Jordan Thompson

Cold: Sam Querrey, Ryan Harrison, Janko Tipsarevic, Marcel Granollers, Bernard Tomic

Semifinal predictions: Steve Johnson over Casper Ruud and Pablo Cuevas over Tennys Sandgren

Final: Cuevas over Johnson

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Grand Prix Hassan II

Where: Marrakech, Morocco
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 524,340 Euros
Points: 250

Top seed: Alexander Zverev
Defending champion: Pablo Andujar

Draw analysis: Edmund and Pablo Andujar played in the 2018 Marrakech final. They weren’t expected to be in it last year and they aren’t the favorites to get back there this time around. Edmund has begun to regain his form with fourth-round showings in Indian Wells and Miami, but he isn’t the player that was on display in the first half of last year. He also faces a tough road, with a rising Ugo Humbert right off the bat, potentially Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in round two, possibly Laslo Djere in the quarterfinals, and then likely Zverev in the semis.

The bottom half of the bracket is similarly deep but with no obvious favorite like Zverev. Fognini, Gilles Simon, Fernando Verdasco, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and perhaps Albert Ramos-Vinolas could all be in the mix. If the seeds hold (not likely), the semis would pit Fognini against Kohlschreiber and Simon against Verdasco on semifinal Saturday.

First-round upset alert: Thomas Fabbiano over (8) Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Herbert is solid on all surfaces, but clay should be his worst based on style of play. Although Fabbiano has actually fared relatively well on hard courts, he is at his best on the slow stuff. This a good opportunity for the Italian, who reached the third round of the Australian Open and has remained in decent form.

Hot: Laslo Djere, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Ugo Humbert

Cold: Denis Istomin, Benoit Paire, Mischa Zverev, Jiri Vesely

Semifinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Kyle Edmund and Gilles Simon over Philipp Kohlschreiber

Final: Zverev over Simon

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