Since Rafael Nadal first played–and won–the French Open 14 years ago, only three times has he failed to lift the trophy.
For those counting, that means the Roland Garros score dating back to 2005 is the following: Nadal 11, Roger Federer 1, Novak Djokovic 1, Stan Wawrinka 1, everyone else 0.
And it’s not like he is showing any signs of stopping at 32 years old. The Spaniard heads into the upcoming clay-court swing as the two-time defending French Open champion and he has not lost a match on the red dirt of Paris since 2015 (to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals).
But is the door at least partly open this time around? Nadal’s injury-plagued past is well-document and he withdrew from the recent Indian Wells Masters prior to a scheduled semifinal against Federer because of a knee injury.
“I’m just gonna keep going, and I’m just gonna keep doing the things that works well for me and accepting that sometimes these issues can happen,” Nadal said while announcing his Indian Wells exit. “So all the things that are in my hands I am doing well. The things that I can’t control, I can’t control. So (I must) accept the situation even if [this] is a sad moment for me. Try to be always positive and grateful with all the things that tennis give to me and life give to me.
“So I can’t complain much, because I feel very fortunate for all the things that I did in this life and happened to me in the world of tennis. So it’s normal that after all those things you go through, sad and tough moments, too, and that’s it. Just keep going.”
You can bet on tennis and get Nadal at -110 to triumph for a 12th time at Roland Garros. That’s right; he is favored against the entire field.
And why not? Aside from the knee issue, there is only good news for Nadal. The world No. 2 is now going to clay, as the European swing from April through early June is played entirely on the slow stuff. Only once in his career has he struggled physically as a result of too much clay-court tennis (his 2009 French Open fourth-round loss to Robin Soderling can hardly be explained otherwise; his 2016 mid-French Open withdrawal prior to the third round was due to an out-of-nowhere wrist injury).
As for other contenders, there are many–but none without question marks. Although Djokovic is holding three major titles right now, he slumped in Indian Wells and Miami (again). Federer has not played on clay since 2015. Wawrinka appears to be past his prime, at least for the moment. Thiem still looks like a future Roland Garros winner, but his blowout loss to Nadal in last season’s final suggests he is still at least a year or two away.
You can visit https://usbettingcodes.com/ and get Federer as a +370 second choice behind Djokovic to win Wimbledon. At the French? He’s all the way up at +2500–the fifth choice behind Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem, and Alexander Zverev.
A lot of that has to do with Federer’s superiority on grass instead of clay. But a lot of that also has to do with the competition level. If the 37-year-old Swiss faces Nadal on the green stuff, he is a considerable favorite. On clay? He–and anyone else–is a clear underdog.
A changing of the guard will come at some point, as Father Time is undefeated. But it’s taking a long time to defeat Federer and–at least on clay–it may take just as long to defeat Nadal.
Nadal or the field?
Rafa! But his injury frequency over the past year and a half is alarming to say the least. Djokovic is the major contender, imo. He really wants RG again. I think he’ll be ready to contend for it. Unless, of course, he gets injured.
I think Thiem is ready.
I give both Djokovic and Thiem more than an outside shot, but I’d still be betting on Nadal.
Will be interesting to watch how Fed looks on the clay these days, and also if any of the Next Gen can make an impact (probably not, but we’ll see).
I think Tsitsipas will do well on clay, he can play well on clay, with his point construction thinking game.
Sasha can play well on clay, no question about that; the problem is, is he back to 100% fitness?
Can FAA and Shapo continue with their good form from HC to clay? Maybe yes or maybe not, we’ll see.
Yeah, any of those guys could make a bit of a run. It’s probably a bit early for FAA, but he’s showing a lot of promise at this early stage in his career. I don’t find Zverev’s game very interesting to watch, but I guess he’s the most likely.
To me, Zverev looks like he’s a hard hitter something like Delpo; but, Delpo hits with awesome easy power and he’s mentally very tough. Delpo’s matches are more interesting than Zverev’s imo. Stan is another hard hitter from the baseline but he comes with an awesome SHBH and he can consistently hit with depth all match long; hence, both Delpo and Stan are more interesting players to watch than Zverev!
I like to compare Tsitsipas’ and Shapo’s games to Fedal’s – Tsitsipas’s ball striking is like Fed’s, but he’s not as aggressive as Fed, he plays a thinking game like Rafa except that he’s not a counterpuncher; he’ll move to the net as and when he finds it appropriate to do so.
Shapo’s mannerism and his explosive movements are like Rafa’s; but he’s one who plays first strike tennis like Fed, but he tends to go for broke. To me, Tsitsipas plays with a mindset like Rafa’s, ie patient and takes his time to attack, whilst Shapo’s is like Fed’s, ie attacks ASAP with short point tennis.
I don’t know FAA’s style is similar to which established top player – his idol is Fed but he plays with DHBH and he’s more a baseliner with a big serve/big FH and engages in rallies more than serve plus FH one two point tennis.
Coric and Chung – the obviously play Djokovic style tennis; Chung said his idol is Djoko, and he tries to play like Djoko.
I’m taking the Field this year…it’s just too hard to win SEVEN 3 out of 5 matches….even if you’re Rafa. a young gun on a really good day could beat him….Khachanov?…Thiem?….Cilic?
So how come Djoko could do it at the AO? You think Djoko at AO >Rafa at FO?
If Rafa, after 4 months absence and not playing any warm up event, could play and win in 6 BO5 matches to reach the final at the AO, why won’t he do better at the FO?
He’s practising on clay already and his knees look OK.
Rafa and only Rafa if he is healthy! Age is not an obstacle for Rafa, he is still capable of beating just about anyone on clay! It’s only his injuries that could spoil the process of wining another RG title!
Vamos Champ!
I don’t think Nadal will win it this year, but not because of injury. You have to wonder about latest knee injury anyway, given that he was back on the court less than 2 weeks after withdrawing from the Fed semi-final at IW. Rafa was less dominant (and, I think, less confident) at RG last year than in 2017. There are a few players who could beat him on a good day, and I don’t like his chances against Novak, period. In any case, I don’t think the short odds against the field are warranted this year.
Fed at 25-1, however, is an enticing pick.
So what he’s less confident last year? He only lost one set on his way to the title. I don’t think he’s less confident btw, he’s beating everyone comfortably; it’s only against Schwartz that he was nervous from the start, not forgetting it’s after his long match against Schwartz at the AO that he ended up injured in his next match against Cilic.
Rafa also set the new record of winning consecutive sets on a single surface (clay) last year, breaking John Mac’s record if I’m not wrong.
What less than two weeks? It’s after two weeks, he just started practising. He had the same issues in 2012, withdrew from Miami SF with knee tendinitis issue, but won at MC after three weeks rest. He had experienced that before several times (in 2009 too) so he knew when to stop before aggravating the problem any further.
Rafa withdrew from the match against Fed on March 17 (played the day before against Khachanov). Back practicing 12 days later on March 29:
https://www.tennis365.com/tennis-videos/watch-rafael-nadal-back-on-clay-as-he-returns-to-training-after-injury/
I don’t think the injury could have been that serious.
Nope, March 17 was IW final; Rafa withdrew before the SF, which was supposed to be on 16; he played Khachanov on QF day which was 15 March. So it’s exactly two weeks of rest before he started to practice again.
As I’d said earlier, he had experienced all these before; it’s the tendinitis pain at that moment that he needed to stop; he would recover with some rest. This is not the first time and won’t be the last; he would always ensure that he had sufficient rest before the clay season start to have the problem under control; sometimes resorting to pain killers (as in 2009).
It’s his usual tendinitis. Playing can make it much worse, as in his USO semi v Delpo. Playing the IW semi wasn’t worth the risk with the clay season coming up so soon. Clay is easier on it than hard court. But there’s no guarantee some other injury won’t crop up.
Rafa’s favored v the Field? That really hadn’t sunk in when I originally skimmed the article. If I were a bettor I’d be tempted to take the Field this year. I wouldn’t bet on Fed though. Don’t think he gets through 7 on clay.
What other injury? As long as he doesn’t grind, I don’t see any injury. Its always after some grinding that he ended up injured – AO2018 after the long match vs Schwarz, USO2018 after the long match vs Thiem; and I would think his 3 hours match vs Kyrgios had led to this latest knee issue.
I feel he can no longer play grinding tennis without having knee issues later on (maybe on clay it’s more forgiving on his knees, I dont know).
His whole game was based on grinding for years, now its catching up with him.His grass court game suffers because he cant bend his knees enough, because of wear and tear mostly on other surfaces.
Its unfortunate he didn’t take advantage of his latest chance to win a hard court Slam, but wasn’t he short of match play after another return from injury?
I don’t think Nadal wasn’t short of match play; before the AO final he was playing the very best HC tennis he has ever played. He just got run over in the final, partly bad day, partly low confidence, mostly God-mode opponent.
There was a touch of sarcasm in that post , Joe.
yes, i did realize that belatedly, Al … sorry to ruin it!
But ,injury wont be a factor at RG for him, it only was once in 2009 .
I dont know if anyone will beat him at RG but a Djoko at his best can certainly have a great chance.
This time I got it!
Thiem is my pick.
Rafa gets injured on hc, not clay (2009 excepted).
Betting against Rafa at RG vs the field at basically even odds is not too bright IMO.
2016 🙁 Tendinitis is not the only injury. But Rafa’s looking happy and GREAT in practice so let’s hope for the best!!