Halle R2 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Paire, Kohlschreiber vs. Ebden

Roger Federer will be back in action when he goes up against Benoit Paire in the Halle second round on Thursday. A quarterfinal spot will also be at stake when Germany’s own Philipp Kohlschreiber faces Matthew Ebden.

(1) Roger Federer vs. Benoit Paire

Federer and Paire will be going head-to-head for the sixth time in their careers when they clash in round two of the Gerry Weber Open on Thursday. All five of their previous meetings have gone the way of Federer, who is 11-0 in total sets against the Frenchman, has been pushed to a tiebreaker only once, and has won six of their 11 contested sets by 6-2 or worse. They faced each other twice in 2017, when the Swiss prevailed 6-1, 6-3 in Dubai and by the exact same score in Basel.

There is no reason to think the grass courts of Halle will help Paire turn things around. After all, Federer is 60-6 lifetime at this event (53-3 in his last 56 matches) and has lifted the winner’s trophy on nine occasions. The 36-year-old is coming off a triumph in Stuttgart and he made routine 6-3, 6-4 work of Aljaz Bedene on Tuesday. Paire earned another shot at Federer by beating Steve Johnson 7-5, 7-6(5) in his Halle opener. The world No. 48 is a mediocre 17-14 for the season and 2-1 on grass following a second-round performance in Stuttgart (defeated Taylor Fritz, lost to Tomas Berdych). Like it is for many players, this is an awful matchup for Paire because Federer will play on top of the baseline, take balls early, and keep the underdog off balance while exploiting his vulnerable forehand.

Pick: Federer in 2 losing 5-7 games

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(SE) Matthew Ebden vs. (6) Philipp Kohlschreiber

Kohlschreiber is also a Halle master–albeit not to the extent of Federer. The 24th-ranked German has treated the home crowd to one title, one runner-up showing (to Federer), and quarterfinal results or better on eight other occasions. He may have needed a bit of help, however, on Tuesday when he was locked a tight battle with Marton Fucsovics before getting a third-set retirement from the Hungarian (Kohlschrieber was leading 4-6, 6-3, 2-1 at the time).

Up next for the 34-year-old on Thursday is a second career encounter with Ebden, who lost their only previous showdown 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(4) at the 2012 French Open. The 30-year-old Australian is currently in the midst of a best-ever season on tour, with eight ATP-level match victories, plenty of Challenger success, and a career-high ranking of No. 60 in the world. Always a force on grass, Ebden reached the Surbiton Challenger semifinals a qualifier, advanced to the ‘s-Hertogenbosch semis last week, and beat Malek Jaziri 6-0, 7-6(2) on Tuesday in Halle. Based on current form, an upset is not out of the question.

Pick: Ebden in 3

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46 Comments on Halle R2 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Paire, Kohlschreiber vs. Ebden

  1. What’s up with Federer? I just tuned in. They’re having actual rallies? And Fed might lose the 2nd set – well, I was about to say I wouldn’t bet on it, but Paire did it. He’ll come down out of the clouds now. I think.

  2. Benny- did Fed’s level totally drop off after first set? Did Paire step up big time? Or both? Paire can actually be a very tricky opponent if he’s on. Especially on grass where he margins are smaller.

    • Fed was a bit off and missing a lot of routine shots, wasn’t totally himself today I guess. But a lot of credit should go to Paire because he was blasting serves and hitting that amazing two hander of his and keeping Roger away from the net with his depth. I feel bad for Paire because he played great overall, probably would’ve won if he made the first serve at 7-6 as it was an absolute rocket that just clipped the tape. But happy Roger continues the streak (18 grass court wins in a row).

  3. What was wrong with Federer, anything? Or was Paire just playing well and being fabulous like he can sometimes – even w/o a forehand?

    • He was pretty fabulous lol. At least until the last two points when that forehand of his broke down. Of course he would’ve won if he hadn’t died his hair bleach blonde #PourquoiPaire?

  4. Benoit Paire might be the most confusing player I’ve ever witnessed. Similar to today, I’ve seen him play at a relatively shockingly high level for spurts of time, and then look like he has Kyrgios-level of not-caring blended with the skills of a high school player…

  5. Fed was awful by his standard but Paire? What do you expect from him? You rarely get a MP against Fed and yet he squandered it big time! Fed was bad losing that point to trail 6-7 in the TB and yet Paire as usual couldn’t finish him off.

    Fed will as usual reach the final despite playing badly even on grass and such is the standard of the field of players on grass! Without top form Djoko, Murray and Rafa on grass, no one else is going to beat Fed on grass. At least the trio could boast of beating Fed on grass in BO5 matches in finals (Rafa and Djoko at Wimbledon finals, Murray at Olympics BO5 final). No other player could do so.

    • No credit to Federer for getting through a tough match, as usual.If he gets ‘La Decima’ in Halle, it will be largely because the roof was closed when the sun was shining.

      • You’re wrong anyway, Berdych and Tsonga beat Fed in BO5 on grass.

        Aside:Just realised, Djokovic is the only player to beat Rafa at all four Slams.

      • Read carefully Big Al, I said in a final! Did both Tsonga and Berdych beat Fed in a BO5 final on grass? Don’t test my knowledge, there’s Stakhovsky too who beat Fed in BO5 on grass at Wimbledon!

        Why give Fed the credit when it’s Paire who blew it? One ace and he could’ve finished the job but as usual Paire couldn’t do it! Fed was lucky he survived, when he played so poorly. I would expect Fed playing at his normal level to finish off Paire in straight sets on grass!

        PS. Since you’re at it, dont forget Rafa had beaten Fed at three of the four slams too and could be four but Fed dodged it at the USO last year! Rafa had also beaten Djoko at three of the four slams, missing only the AO when they met only once.

        • Ok I read wrong,late night.But I can’t see how it being a final or not makes much difference.Main point was that you always say Feds opponent blew it ,than give him any credit(Wimby 2007 final,Rg2009 semi from memory)
          Anyway, I wonder if Rafa will ever get the chance to beat Fed in that US final ,hope so.

          • Big Al, you seriously have reading problem about my posts. I said Delpo ran out of steam in that FO2009 final but I didn’t say Delpo blew it. Delpo might not win even if he’s physically fit, and that’s not the same like Paire having MP but blew it. Delpo made it ‘easier’ for Fed by running out of steam, hence Fed won the fifth set relatively easily if I’m not wrong. Fed might have to tough it out otherwise. It’s Delpo who should be commended for pushing Fed to five sets, not the other way round when Fed was in his prime in 2009 whilst Delpo was just a 21 yo and about to hit his prime.

            The difference of beating Fed in a BO5 final vs in an earlier round? It’s harder to beat him in a final, hence he’s winning eight out of eleven finals (twelve if you include that Olympics final) and only the trio that I mentioned could beat him. The whole idea is: none of the current players are good enough to beat Fed on grass, and that’s how poor the field is right now, we don’t even need to talk about them beating Fed in a final on grass, when Rafa isn’t at his peak on grass anymore, and Djoko is still finding his way back and Murray is just trying to comeback from injury!

          • LS, Fed still got through that match , as he did many matches where he was up against it. Then you say ‘Fed is harder to beat in BO5 finals on grass’ I don’t know what reason you have for that, other than historically.
            Or, could it mean, he’s able to raise his game when it really matters, like a true champion? (Or did Benneteau choke in Wimby 2012 ?)

            And, since Fed has won many Masters on hard court and the AO this year, I don’t think you can really say he’s more dominant on grass , where so few matches are played, its a very small sample overall.

            Fed is dominant on surfaces where the ball doesn’t bounce high , hence the grass of the eighties/nineties would have suited him better than todays grass, where his slice isn’t as effective.

            Could be argued that fast hardcourts suit him better than todays grass. I agree that the opposition isn’t as good now as it was a couple of years ago, but the same thing applies to all players even Rafa on clay.

          • Big Al, do you mean that each time Fed played and won a five setter, his opponent choked? You talked as if it’s such, I’m not the one saying so, so don’t try to put words into my mouth (the way you like to do against me!).

            Are you serious in thinking that in a Wimbledon final, Fed would play the same way as in his earlier rounds?? I find your thinking strange if that’s what you’re thinking.

            You want to compare the caliber of players on clay to those on grass at the present moment? Who’re the equivalent on grass to Thiem and Sasha on clay? The inconsistent Kyrgios? Or the inconsistent Cilic who’s good in BO3 on grass but struggled to reach a Wimbledon final only to suffer from a foot blister and lost meekly?

            No matter how you argue about it, there are more better players on clay than there are on grass!

  6. Fed wasn’t great in this match. He has not looked overwhelming but these are warm up events to tune up for the main event.

    I knew when Paire could not convert either match point that he would lose the match. You have to take it when it’s there against Fed.

    Novak seems to be looking good so far in this matches. He demolished Dimi, who seems to have lost his game somewhere. The tennis channel commies were almost giddy in speculating about Novak’s chances at Wimby. I think that is very premature. Novak may look good in Bof3 matches in warm up tournaments. But that is very different from a slam. But I see that Novak has reconsidered his initial rash decision after his loss at RG and is playing the grass season. That is the right decision. Keep playing.

  7. I didn’t get to see the match, but I had a feeling that Paire might make a match of it. He’s got serious talent to go with being a total head case sometimes. Still, Fed couldn’t have been playing very well in the second set to get broken twice. Up until now I’ve thought Fed looked pretty good and playing himself into form for wimby.

    • Wow, I can’t believe you called that, Nadline! I personally never would have seen it coming. I’m genuinely curious- what was your reasoning for why you thought Paire would pull it off?

  8. I only watched the highlights, but it looked to me like Fed was trying to play like pre-2017 Fed for a good chunk of the match- slicing wimpy returns and running all around the back of the court like it’s 2006 again! It’s strange to me, as he looked very sharp in Stuttgart. I saw him attacking much more in Stuttgart, and really taking time away from his opponents. That style is what makes Fed so difficult to play on grass.

    What I saw in today’s highlights, he might as well have been playing on clay! I must admit, too, that Paire was being quite aggressive on his own returns, and really making Fed uncomfortable by changing pace. Other players should take note of what Paire was doing today. If you truly want to beat Fed on grass without just hoping he doesn’t play that well, you gotta take him out of his comfort zone somehow. Giving Federer rhythm on grass is going to equal a loss about 95% of the time. Unless it’s a prime Djokovic or Rafa who can overwhelm and grind away at Fed, these other players have to either make him uncomfortable, or hope that he’s just having an off day and you’re having a phenomenal day.

    • Fed is having an off day imo, he’s probably tired after playing B2B week. I don’t expect him to look sharp after winning at Stuggart, people expect too much out of a 36 year old!

      I expect Fed to play this way after Stuggart, but would still go far because of the weak field at Halle. Imagine he playing Cilic, Kyrgios or even Djoko at Queen’s, he probably would lose to one of them, my take.

      Fed has to grind to win even on grass at times. His biggest weapons on grass are his serve and his slices. He used that against Paire and won the first set because Paire couldn’t handle Fed’s slices in the first set, but Paire soon figured out how to take on Fed’s slices and made Fed ran more in the second set and so he won the second.

      Rafa and Djoko are/were great ROS, and so they could handle Fed’s serves on grass, and Fed’s slices couldn’t harm Rafa on grass as Rafa’s topspin FH could neutralize Fed’s slices; Djoko too learned how to handle Fed’s slices on grass and so both could beat him at Wimbledon final.

  9. To all Fedfans…Sorry Roger lost okay?It was not meant for him this year…
    I wish him & u guys all the best for Wimby okay?

    Tho many many congrats for Big Al for winning Halle Bracket!…Good job Big Al!!

    • Thanks, bit weird feeling winning when Roger lost!
      Very mixed feelings.
      I think it was the Bautista Agut pick that did it.

      • Hehe…Thank u so much Big Al!…But u really shows that you’re a great/amazing pickers lately Big Al!…Respect much for u!…

        Btw…I understand how u feel Big Al…Really i do!..Same with me & Rafa at Wimby…He’s not pass 4th Rd for 6 years now…It’s really a dilemma not to pick him..and felt very guilty for doing that…Like last year,i knew from the beginning he’s not going deep but my loyalty for him make me picked him as a winner too…But this year…Donno Big Al..

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