When a brutal French Open draw for Dominic Thiem was laid out two weeks ago, his expected path to the final included Kei Nishikori in the fourth round, Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals, and Novak Djokovic in the semis.
Nishikori in the fourth round? Check.
Zverev in the quarterfinals? Check.
Djokovic in the semis? That looked like a lock heading into Tuesday, but it did not come to fruition. Marco Checchinato stunned the 12-time Grand Slam champion 6-3, 6-7(4), 1-6, 7-6(11) in a three-hour and 24-minute battle to book his improbable place in the last four.
The 25-year-old’s reward is a third career contest against Thiem–first at the main-tour, main-draw level–on Friday afternoon. They split their two previous encounters (both on hard courts), with Cecchinato prevailing 6-3, 6-4 in the final of a 2013 Futures event at home in Italy before Thiem scored a 1-6, 6-3, 6-2 victory in 2014 Doha qualifying.
Each man is now seeking a first-ever appearance in a much, much different kind of final; that, of course, being a major. It would be a natural progression for Thiem, a staple of the ATP’s top 10 in recent seasons and already a two-time Roland Garros semifinalist even before this current stop in Paris. Also in fine form on the slow stuff in 2018, the 24-year-old Austrian upset Rafael Nadal in Madrid and eventually finished runner-up there to Alexander Zverev–a loss he avenged with a 6-4, 6-2, 6-1 beatdown on Tuesday. Thiem preceded that win by defeating Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, and Kei Nishikori in mostly routine fashion.
Cecchinato, on the other hand, has done this completely out of nowhere. The world No. 72 had never won a single Grand Slam match prior to this fortnight and he owned a grand total of four ATP-level match victories prior to the 2018 campaign. Cecchinato started to pick up plenty of momentum at the beginning of this clay-court swing, with successful qualification and a second-round performance in Monte-Carlo followed by a title in in Budapest as a lucky loser. Before stunning Djokovic in the quarters, he ousted Marius Copil (10-8 in the fifth set), Marco Trungelliti, Pablo Carreno Busta, and David Goffin.
“Cecchinato is full of confidence,” Thiem assured. “He (had) never won a match at a slam, and now…in the semifinals. So he can play completely free. [It’s] going to be tough; semifinals of a Grand Slam is always.”
“I won last match against Dominic Thiem, I think,” Cecchinato incorrectly reflected. “(It) was the final in one Future. So I remember this match, and I want to believe [that I can also beat] Dominic Thiem.”
The underdog was wrong about beating Thiem in their last match; he is not wrong in thinking that he can win on Friday. But that would require not only the best tennis of his career, but also a significant off day for Thiem. The world No. 8 is showing no signs of turning in any kind of subpar performance at what is clearly his favorite tournament, and Cecchinato will be hard-pressed to duplicate his effort against Djokovic in what is yet another biggest-match-of-career situation.
Pick: Thiem in 3
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Who ya got?
S’man somehow got a set off of Rafa….but C’nato won’t be so lucky….Thiem in 3.
Thiem in 4
Cecchinato to continue his unexplainable Cinderella story and beats thiem in 5. He has already won matches without a realistic explaination and luck is not a valid reason.
Thiem in three
on paper Thiem, but would like to see C story
What does a man have to do to earn some respect from bookies and tipsters? Cecchinato is playing like the number one clay courter in the world and has just thrashed 3 top 10 claycourters in a row including a previous RG champion.
I think some people need to jump on youtube and watch the replay because im not seeing any reason he cant do to Theim (who has never won a major) what he’s done to everyone else this tournament.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSQxYi67EJs
Cecchinato in 4
“won matches without a realistic explaination” … hmm, what about Goffoin dealing with a injured right shoulder, which he made a good job of hiding for most of the game, yet those who had eyes to se have seen?
What about Djokovic dealing himself with shoulder issues?
Credits to Cecchinato for raising the level and punishing those opportunities, and even playing a great tie-break against a Nole playing those minutes at a good level.
Thiem is another kind of a beast at this moment, better than the one who played the semis in the past two years. And he’s ready for the great challenge on Sunday.
Tomorrow … I see nly theoretical chances for Marco to stop him.
They just making excuses. What about del potro groin tear and wanted to not even compete but somehow with his groin injury he makes the semi finals? There is not one tennis player without physical issues. They all work hard on and off training. Everyone has some sort of issue but people will always use those things for excuses when someone loses. How Djokovic won all the other matches if he had issues? How goffin battle back from a set and beak down against monfils if he was injured? Why del potro owning everyone with a serious groin tear? If you ever had groin tear, you will know you can’t move as it feels like someone is kicking u in the nuts every step.
Theim has never even made it to a grand slam final and some of you are talking as if he’s a God of tennis. Get real.
He’s dropped half a dozen sets already this RG.
He lost eight games to Zverev and demolished Nishikori (and yes it was a demolition even if it was a four setter). He’s heating up and is playing as good as anyone on clay right now.
Agree, great chance of winning the whole thing esp if Nadal not at his best.
no
Thiem can be a god on clay and he is also inconsistent so we will see who shows up.
Djokovic wouldve beaten Theim in current form so no reason why Cecchinato cant do the same to Theim. Djokovic dropped only 1 set against RBA enroute to that 1/4 final match. Thats pretty good form if you ask me.
I don’t believe in fairy tales. Thiem in 3.
Theres plenty that do, theres been a tonne of money for Cecch.
Cecch may not know how to handle this…he’s used to having money–and LOTS OF IT–coming in on his opponents!
fairy tales in tennis are true. Look at 2016 wta us open champ Flavia Pennetta. Not one person had her to even make it to the semis. She was in the catorgory of +50000 to win the whole thing. But she did it.
Cecchinato can beat Thiem if Thiem doesnt play his best, and there’s a good chance he won’t doing that, if Cecchinato can battle him, and take him to 5 sets.
Against Nadal in the final, nobody stands a chance. Unless Nadal plays bad and his opponent plays extremely well, this will be another FO for Nadal.
both solid points
Check CAN beat Thiem if Thiem is off. But he won’t.
Exactly Ricky.
Thiem will play his best, unlike Djoko. Thiem is more solid than Djoko is now, and the Italian guy barely got through the second and fourth sets. I doubt Thiem will give him such opportunities. Thiem is more steady than that.
We will see, Cecchinato has been smashing everyone for longer than RG, have a look at his record the past few months. Theim will need to be at his best, thats for sure.
If his run was just over RG, id agree with you that his luck might eventually run out but this guy has been cleaning up far longer than RG.
He spanked the number one Italian Fognini twice in the lead up to RG. That means he’s the number one Italian right now.
When youre spankiing everyone at challenger and ATP 250 level, your dangerous even at this level and he has proven he’s up to this level also.
Thiem and Nadal should have no problem beating their respective opponents. That’s for sure. But they can still lose. They are human. And as a fellow human, you have experienced in life some days you wake up and just don’t feel good and you cant do things as good as you normally would. It’s just human nature. Maybe you catch a pathogens, maybe something you ate, maybe a chronic problem just happened to flare up, Maybe you just don’t feel good mentally. Lot of crap can go wrong. Yes the chance is low these things will happen, but the possibility is there. Vice versa, as a human some days you out perform your self. There are days when you wake up and just feel invincible. I’m sure everyone experienced those great days. These are some of the variables that can happen.
Cech can beat Theim if Theim is on just like he beat Djokovic when he was on. He’s playing like a number 1 or 2 clay courter in the world right now, comparable to Wawrinka the year he won RG.
If Cecch has a bad day, he will lose but there’s no reason up until this point to suggest that will happen. i.e. There’s no evidence.
Theim was 1.10 and is now 1.16 with many bookies. It would take a lot of money to nmove the line against Theim, there’s such a huge bias towards him winning.
Bookies dont want to risk too much because its very easy for Checch to just gave a bad day and punters backing Theim will make easy money but the movement in those odds tell me there’s been huge support for the Italian.
Cessinato will win against thiem and then come to finals against GOAT and will get thrashed in straights similar score of 6-1 6-0 6-2 …
So my picks are cessinato to WIN
Nadal to WIN .
Nostradamus is back. There we have it people, no need to watch, enjoy your lunch and guaranteed winnings.
can Dominic Thiem reach his first slam final? http://www.138mph.com/french-open-tennis-semi-final-previews-between-del-potro-and-nadal-and-cecchinato-and-thiem/
Ricky:
“Thiem preceded that win by defeating Ilya Ivashka, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, and Kei Nishikori in mostly routine fashion.”
Thiem hasn’t really played ‘anyone’ has he? except for Sasha who was injured.
uh, Tsitsipas and Nishikori????
Thiem and Cecci have previous; they’ve actually played each other twice before and are 1:1 in their h2h so it will be interesting. This will be their first encounter on clay and they both seem very proficient on it so it’s hard to call.
Had Marco not been suspended he may have climbed further the ladder and he is the opposite of his countryman, Fabio, who seems to love strutting and winding up the umpire his opponent more than winning.
^^^I’m wrong; this isn’t their first contest on clay. Marco won their first clay encounter in a Futures match 63 64 in 2013.
Thiem breaks for 1-0
Dom looking strong..
very good so far
Check is also playing well
Dom messed that up to get broken!!
Yeah that happens, Rafa does that too, but Check is really playing well and the scary thing is he believes he can win this!
Dom serving for the set! I reckon if he takes the first Marco won’t win!
Chech starting to groove!
Dom better stop him gaining momentum!
Game has developed into a damp squib!
Better if this match is over in 3 so rafa Delpo can start on time!
ikr!
Thiems gonna win but still cecchinato playing much better than his +1000 odds bookies gave him. That’s just disrespectful.
Thiem truly messing things up; he’s learning fast from the subpar Djoko! He’s throwing the second set away Im afraid.
The pressure too much at times but thiem still gonna win
Win or lose what a strong performance by the Italian. Even down a lot in tie break he doesn’t fold.
The Italian guy’s matches are full of drama! Crowd loving it, he’s fast making a name for himself whether he wins or not.
Check had his chances! indeed!
Dammit bro, couldn’t get the set point
It’s over. I would just fold with a broken spirit after not winning serving with a sp.
Too good Theim. 2 clutch serves on the line and a clutch drop shot from way behind the baseline
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qxudaGdhV3soWRQFhYGS9y7k50f-LqYK/view?usp=drivesdk
Checch played a bit safe today, like he had something to lose.
Jim Courier, I told you so yesterday. Marco didn’t play bad at all today, but winning? Nah, that was more than unlikely. He’s no Guga Kuerten , who had the nerve and the talent to go all the way.
Nadal is huffing and puffing out there. It’s too hot for a 34yr old
This match had upset written all over it.
Rafa battling with game point.
Rafa holds. Delpo seemed to stumble and tweak his hip.
Delpo has asked for the physio.
Guga was 20. Ceccy is 25. He played very well and Thiem made some ugly errors (bricked volleys? was he a bricklayer in a previous life?) but ability paid off in the end.